Economy
AfDB Forecasts 4% GDP Growth for West Africa in 2023
By Adedapo Adesanya
The African Development Bank has said the West African region is projected to grow by 4 per cent in 2023 and 4.3 per cent in 2024, slightly lower than continental average growth rates of 4.1 per cent and 4.4 per cent, respectively.
In its 2023 West Africa Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday, the lender said West Africa experienced slower economic growth over the past year except for Cabo Verde, The Gambia, Guinea, Mali, and Niger.
In the outlook, the AfDB said the GDP growth outlook for the region is positive and that the three largest economies in the region, Nigeria, Ghana, and Côte d’Ivoire, are projected to account for over 82 per cent of the regional output.
The report assessed the economic performance of 15 West African countries, namely: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo.
In terms of country groupings, regional growth is expected to be driven by the non-resource-intensive economies (7.2 per cent) like Benin, Cabo Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, the Gambia, and Senegal, while other resource-intensive economies (4.8 per cent) and oil exporting countries (3.3 per cent).
The high growth performance in non-resource-intensive economies could be attributed to the diversified nature of the growth base (Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal) and good policy management in others.
The report notes that West Africa’s average gross domestic product decelerated to 3.8 per cent in 2022 from 4.4 per cent in 2021, implying that the growth recovery from the 2020 downturn had slowed.
The report attributes decelerating growth to, among other factors, such successive shocks as the resurgence of COVID-19 in China, a major trade partner for the region’s countries. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also spurred inflationary pressures on the cost of food, fuel, and fertiliser in many West African region countries.
The report further reveals that advanced economies have also tightened monetary policy, which has heightened aversion to risk globally and increased exchange rate pressures.
“Therefore, amid already high policy rates (e.g., policy rate of 18% in Nigeria, 29% in Ghana, and 19% in Sierra Leone), further rate hikes might do more harm than good to growth prospects,” it warned.
The report noted that adapting to climate change and the depletion of the region’s natural resources present an opening for businesses and governments to embrace sustainable and green growth.
“West Africa has enormous potential to achieve green growth, green industrialisation being the most obvious pathway. The rationale for green growth across the region is quite comprehensive: climate change impacts and risks, natural capital depletion, poverty, and food insecurity, as well as limited employment creation and many capital-intensive enclaves.”
Speaking on this, AfDB’s Chief Economist and Vice President for Economic Governance and Knowledge Management, Mr Kevin Urama, said multiple challenges had led to rising interest rates and were compounding debt service payments to African countries.
He explained that these included climate change, inflation driven by higher prices of energy, commodities, and disruption of supply chains, as well as the tightening of monetary policy in the United States and Europe.
Mr Urama added that greater effort would be needed in Africa to mobilise domestic resources and private sector financing to help countries achieve climate and green growth transitions.
“Africa is being short-changed [in] climate financing. The continent will need between $235 billion and $250 billion annually through 2030 to meet investments under its nationally determined contributions. Yet, Africa received only about $29.5 billion in climate financing between 2019 and 2020,” he said.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The duo of Geo-Fluids Plc and Afriland Properties Plc propelled the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange up 0.13 per cent on Friday, January 10.
Investors gained N1.4 billion during the trading session after the market capitalisation of the bourse ended at N1.053 trillion compared with the previous day’s N1.052 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) increased at the close of business by 4.07 points to wrap the session at 3,073.93 points compared with 3,069.86 points recorded at the previous session.
Geo-Fluids added 25 Kobo to its value to close at N4.85 per unit compared with the previous session’s N4.60 per unit, and Afriland Properties Plc gained 24 Kobo to close at N16.25 per share versus Thursday’s closing price of N16.01 per share.
There was a 35.4 per cent fall in the volume of securities traded in the session as investors exchanged 4.3 million units compared to 6.6 million units traded in the preceding session, the value of shares traded yesterday went down by 37.4 per cent to N17.2 million from the N27.5 million recorded a day earlier, and the number of deals decreased by 47.2 per cent to 19 deals from the 36 deals recorded in the preceding day.
FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 1.9 million units worth N74.2 million, followed by 11 Plc with 12,963 units valued at N3.2 million, and Industrial and General Insurance (IGI )Plc with 10.7 million units sold for N2.1 million.
IGI Plc closed the day as the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 10.6 million units sold for N2.1 million, trailed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 1.9 million units valued at N74.2 million, and Acorn Petroleum Plc with 1.2 million units worth N1.9 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira witnessed a depreciation on the US Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Friday, January 10.
According to data from the FMDQ Exchange, the local currency weakened against the greenback yesterday by 0.12 per cent or N1.80 to sell for N1,543.03/$1 compared with the preceding day’s N1,541.23/$1.
The pressure on the domestic currency came as the access granted to the Bureaux de Change (BDC) operators by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to purchase FX from the official market through the Electronic Foreign Exchange Matching System (EFEMS) platform prepares to end next week, precisely on January 19.
The CBN had given a 42-day window to the operators to access the platform to help stabilise the Naira in December, and this expires next week.
On Friday, the Nigerian currency tumbled against the Pound Sterling in the official market by N30.78 to sell for N1,889.29/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,858.51/£1, but gained N5.48 against the Euro to finish at N1,583.81/€1, in contrast to Thursday’s rate of N1,589.29/€1.
As for the parallel market, the Nigerian Naira remained stable against the US Dollar during the trading session at N1,650/$1, according to data obtained by Business Post.
In the cryptocurrency market, it was bearish as the US economy added 256,000 jobs last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Friday, topping forecasts for 160,000 and up from 212,000 in November (revised from an originally reported 227,000).
However, the readings came after a number of recent economic reports triggered a broad-market pullback across asset classes such as crypto as investors quickly scaled back the idea of a continued series of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025.
Cardano (ADA) fell by 3.6 per cent to trade at $0.921, Solana (SOL) slumped by 2.8 per cent to $185.93, Ethereum (ETH) depreciated by 1.4 per cent to $3,233.27, Litecoin (LTC) lost 1.3 per cent to finish at $103.62, Dogecoin (DOGE) shed 0.5 per cent to sell at $0.3315, Bitcoin (BTC), waned by 0.2 per cent to $94,154.43, and Binance Coin (BNB) went south by 0.1 per cent to $693.30.
On the flip side, Ripple (XRP) jumped by 1.5 per cent to settle at $2.34, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) sold flat at $1.00 each.
By Dipo Olowookere
Profit-takers took control of Customs Street on Friday, plunging it by 0.08 per cent at the close of trading activities.
The sell-offs were across all the key sectors of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on last trading session of the week.
The insurance space went down by 1.53 per cent, the banking index depreciated by 0.41 per cent, the consumer goods sector weakened by 0.16 per cent, and the energy counter slumped by 0.08 per cent, while the industrial goods sector closed flat.
At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) tumbled by 79.68 points to 105,451.06 points from 105,530.74 points and the market capitalisation retreated by N48 billion to N64.303 trillion from N64.351 trillion.
Yesterday, investors traded 1.5 billion shares worth N19.4 billion in 12,877 deals compared with the 489.5 million shares worth N13.1 billion transacted in 13,010 deals in the preceding day, indicating a decline in the number of deals by 1.02 deals and a rise in the trading volume and value by 203.14 per cent and 48.09 per cent, respectively.
Wema Bank was the busiest stock with 976.2 million units valued at N9.8 billion, Tantalizers traded 53.0 million units worth 129.6 million, Universal Insurance sold 34.8 million units for N26.8 million, Access Holdings exchanged 33.9 million units valued at N843.8 million, and Nigerian Breweries traded 27.3 million units worth N873.3 million.
The heaviest loss was suffered by Sunu Assurances with a decline of 9.99 per cent to trade at N7.30, Eunisell shed 9.96 per cent to N17.35, SAHCO crumbled by 9.87 per cent to N30.15, DAAR Communications plunged by 9.28 per cent to 88 Kobo, and Sovereign Trust Insurance went down by 7.04 per cent to N1.32.
On the flip side, C&I Leasing gained 10.00 per cent to close at N4.51, Honeywell Flour appreciated by 9.99 per cent to N10.02, Trans Nationwide Express jumped by 9.89 per cent to N2.00, RT Briscoe rose by 9.83 per cent to N2.57, and Secure Electronic Technology grew by 9.46 per cent to 81 Kobo.
Business Post reports that the bourse ended with 33 price gainers and 25 price losers, indicating a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.
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