Economy
AfDB Forecasts 4% GDP Growth for West Africa in 2023
By Adedapo Adesanya
The African Development Bank has said the West African region is projected to grow by 4 per cent in 2023 and 4.3 per cent in 2024, slightly lower than continental average growth rates of 4.1 per cent and 4.4 per cent, respectively.
In its 2023 West Africa Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday, the lender said West Africa experienced slower economic growth over the past year except for Cabo Verde, The Gambia, Guinea, Mali, and Niger.
In the outlook, the AfDB said the GDP growth outlook for the region is positive and that the three largest economies in the region, Nigeria, Ghana, and Côte d’Ivoire, are projected to account for over 82 per cent of the regional output.
The report assessed the economic performance of 15 West African countries, namely: Benin, Burkina Faso, Cabo Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, The Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mali, Niger, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and Togo.
In terms of country groupings, regional growth is expected to be driven by the non-resource-intensive economies (7.2 per cent) like Benin, Cabo Verde, Côte d’Ivoire, the Gambia, and Senegal, while other resource-intensive economies (4.8 per cent) and oil exporting countries (3.3 per cent).
The high growth performance in non-resource-intensive economies could be attributed to the diversified nature of the growth base (Côte d’Ivoire and Senegal) and good policy management in others.
The report notes that West Africa’s average gross domestic product decelerated to 3.8 per cent in 2022 from 4.4 per cent in 2021, implying that the growth recovery from the 2020 downturn had slowed.
The report attributes decelerating growth to, among other factors, such successive shocks as the resurgence of COVID-19 in China, a major trade partner for the region’s countries. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has also spurred inflationary pressures on the cost of food, fuel, and fertiliser in many West African region countries.
The report further reveals that advanced economies have also tightened monetary policy, which has heightened aversion to risk globally and increased exchange rate pressures.
“Therefore, amid already high policy rates (e.g., policy rate of 18% in Nigeria, 29% in Ghana, and 19% in Sierra Leone), further rate hikes might do more harm than good to growth prospects,” it warned.
The report noted that adapting to climate change and the depletion of the region’s natural resources present an opening for businesses and governments to embrace sustainable and green growth.
“West Africa has enormous potential to achieve green growth, green industrialisation being the most obvious pathway. The rationale for green growth across the region is quite comprehensive: climate change impacts and risks, natural capital depletion, poverty, and food insecurity, as well as limited employment creation and many capital-intensive enclaves.”
Speaking on this, AfDB’s Chief Economist and Vice President for Economic Governance and Knowledge Management, Mr Kevin Urama, said multiple challenges had led to rising interest rates and were compounding debt service payments to African countries.
He explained that these included climate change, inflation driven by higher prices of energy, commodities, and disruption of supply chains, as well as the tightening of monetary policy in the United States and Europe.
Mr Urama added that greater effort would be needed in Africa to mobilise domestic resources and private sector financing to help countries achieve climate and green growth transitions.
“Africa is being short-changed [in] climate financing. The continent will need between $235 billion and $250 billion annually through 2030 to meet investments under its nationally determined contributions. Yet, Africa received only about $29.5 billion in climate financing between 2019 and 2020,” he said.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira appreciated against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Monday, January 12 by N1.71 to trade at N1,421.46/$1, in contrast to the preceding session’s N1,423.17/$1.
However, the local currency further depreciated against the Pound Sterling in the same market window yesterday by N3.81 to close at N1,915.84/£1 compared with last Friday’s price of N1,912.03/£1 and lost N3.55 on the Euro to quote at N1,661.68/€1 versus N1,658.13/€1.
In the same vein, the domestic currency depleted against the Dollar at the GTBank FX desk during the trading session by N4 to to settle at N1,431/$1 compared with the previous trading day’s rate of N1,427/$1 and closed flat in the black market at N1,490/$1.
The appreciation of the Nigerian currency against its American counterpart in the official market was supported by foreign portfolio investors’ inflow with support from non-bank corporate supply, leaving it within the N1,350/$1 – N1,450/$1.
“We anticipate that the CBN will emphasise exchange rate stability over rapid appreciation through 2026, supported by prudent policy execution and effective reserve management,” Coronation Merchant Bank research said in an update.
Despite a differential against other currencies, market analysts noted that stronger external inflows from FPIs, improving current account dynamics, and more disciplined FX management by the authorities, will give the Naira stronger footing.
As for the cryptocurrency market, most tokens tracked by this newspaper were largely down with traders seeing the market settle into equilibrium after leverage was flushed and liquidity thinned.
Market analysts noted that with spot demand soft and no clear institutional catalyst, price discovery continues to shift to where thinner liquidity and narrative trades can overwhelm fundamentals.
Litecoin (LTC) lost 4.6 per cent to trade at $76.25, Solana (SOL) depreciated by 1.6 per cent to $140.23, Cardano (ADA) slid by 1.4 per cent to $0.3914, Ripple (XRP) slumped by 0.9 per cent to $2.05, Ethereum (ETH) went down by 0.8 per cent to $3,128.74, and Dogecoin (DOGE) decreased by 0.5 per cent to $0.1392.
On the flip side, Binance Coin (BNB) appreciated by 0.3 per cent to $908.87, and Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 0.1 per cent to $91,916.73, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited kicked off the week on a positive note after it closed higher by 0.58 per cent on Monday amid sustained buying pressure.
The stock market was bullish as a result of bargain-hunting activities across the key sectors of the bourse, with the energy index growing by 1.49 per cent.
Further, the insurance space expanded by 0.88 per cent, the banking counter improved by 0.86 per cent, the industrial goods sector gained 0.81 per cent, the commodity segment soared by 0.79 per cent, and the consumer goods landscape advanced by 0.57 per cent.
Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 946.61 points to 163,244.69 points from 162,298.08 points and the market capitalisation surged by N745 billion to N104.521 trillion from N103.776 trillion.
The market breadth index of Customs Street was positive yesterday with 49 price gainers and 20 price losers, representing a strong investor sentiment.
The quintet of eTranzact, UPDC, McNichols, Red Star Express and RT Briscoe led the gainers’ chart during the session after chalking up 10.00 per cent each to sell for N16.50, N5.50, N6.05, N11.55, and N3.96, respectively.
However, Champion Breweries topped the losers’ table after it shed 8.51 per cent to quote at N15.05, Eunisell shrank by 8.01 per cent to N156.20, Ikeja Hotel crumbled by 8.00 per cent to N36.80, Guinea Insurance depreciated by 7.30 per cent to N1.27, and Omatek moderated by 3.13 per cent to N1.24.
The activity chart had Sovereign Trust Insurance on top after a turnover of 307.5 million shares valued at N1.0 billion, Fidelity Bank followed with 158.4 million equities sold for N3.1 billion, Linkage Assurance traded 118.7 million stocks worth N213.9 million, Mutual Benefits exchanged 31.5 million shares for N130.4 million, and Lasaco Assurance transacted 31.0 million stocks valued at N79.6 million.
At the close of trades, a total of 1.2 billion equities worth N19.2 billion exchanged hands in 59,359 deals versus the 624.1 million equities valued at N18.5 billion traded in 43,816 deals last Friday, showing a spike in the trading volume, value and number of deals by 92.28 per cent, 3.78 per cent, and 35.47 per cent apiece.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices rose on Monday amid worries that Iran’s exports could decline as the sanctioned member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) cracked down on anti-government demonstrations.
Brent futures increased by 53 cents or 0.8 per cent to $63.87 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures expanded by 38 cents or 0.6 per cent to $59.50 per barrel.
Iran said it was communicating with the US government as President Donald Trump weighed responses to a deadly crackdown on nationwide protests, among the stiffest challenges to clerical rule since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
On Sunday, the US president said officials may meet Iranian officials. He also threatened possible military action over lethal violence against protesters.
Iran has the world’s fourth-largest proven oil reserves, with around 9 per cent of the global total, coming only behind Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and Canada. It also has the second-largest proven natural gas reserves, with 17 per cent of the global share, and is the third-largest crude producer and fourth-largest exporter within OPEC.
In recent months, Iran has produced record levels of oil, even in the face of US sanctions on its energy exports and the bombings conducted by Israel on its capital.
Despite the ongoing sanctions, Iran has gradually built up its output once again, from around 2.9 million barrels per day in 2019 to between 3.2 and 4 million barrels per day in 2024, depending on estimates.
Capping gains were expectations that supplies could rise from Venezuela, another sanctioned member of OPEC as it is expected to resume oil exports soon following the ouster of President Nicolas Maduro.
President Trump said last week the government in the South American country was set to hand over as much as 50 million barrels of sanctioned oil to the US.
Reuters reported that oil companies have been racing to find tankers and prepare operations to ship the crude safely.
Investors are also watching the risk of disruptions in supply in two other OPEC allies – Russia and Azerbaijan – as Ukraine’s attacks have targeted Russian energy facilities while the country faces prospects of tougher US sanctions. In Azerbaijan oil exports dropped to 23.1 million tonnes in 2025 from 24.4 million tonnes in 2024.
Market players are also looking at developments with US interest rates and the Federal Reserve after the Trump administration opened a criminal investigation into the head of the US central bank, Mr Jerome Powell.
The Federal Reserve chair called the move a “pretext” to influence interest rates, a point that the US president has always hammered upon.
Lower interest rates could boost economic growth and oil demand by reducing borrowing costs, but could hinder the central bank’s efforts to control inflation.
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