Economy
Afreximbank Predicts 4% Real GDP Growth for Africa Amid Economic Challenges
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) has projected a 4 per cent real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for Africa in 2025 amid global economic fragility.
This forecast was contained in the 2025 African Trade and Economic Outlook (ATEO) Report carried out by the Cairo-based lender, which noted that Africa’s real GDP could reach 4.1 per cent in 2026 and 4.2 per cent in 2027.
The 2025 African Trade and Economic Outlook (ATEO) provides an in-depth analysis of Africa’s economic and trade performance, projecting the continent’s growth trajectory in the short-to- medium term.
It highlights the key macroeconomic and trade developments shaping Africa’s recovery, detailing opportunities for sustainable growth amid heightening global and domestic uncertainties.
The 2025 ATEO report said 41 per cent of African economies were projected to grow by at least five per cent, nearly double the global rate of 21 per cent, reflecting the continent’s expanding role as a driver of global growth.
According to the report, Africa’s gradual recovery would be supported by increased global demand for African exports, the disinflation trend, and the implementation of structural reforms to diversify African economies
The report said the were downside risks to the African economic outlook, including rising geopolitical tensions and fluctuating commodity prices.
“Economic slowdown in the United States and China may also impact the international financial conditions and the demand for African resources.
“Internal conflicts and climate change threaten stability and growth.”
However, the report said potential upside risks include the anticipated decline in global interest rates, which would begin in 2025 if geopolitical uncertainty remained unchanged, potentially enhancing access to financing.
“Additionally, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) presents an opportunity to boost economic integration and intra-African trade, reducing vulnerability to external shocks in the medium term.”
To address potential downside risks, the report suggests several short-term strategies which include adopting a nuanced and proactive monetary policy stance, and enhancing resilience against climate-related and geopolitical disruptions.
Other strategies include boosting domestic consumption alongside the service sector and accelerating the implementation of the AfCFTA agreement.
In the medium term, the report said strategies should shift toward economic diversification through strategic investments in human capital development and workforce training within key emerging sectors.
“Additionally, efforts should be made to improve economic governance, public infrastructure, and initiatives to strengthen intra-African trade dynamics.”
The report highlighted several challenges and solutions for Africa to attain stability and sustainable development amid a rapidly uncertain global landscape.
The first challenge identified was Africa’s reliance on commodity exports which had made countries vulnerable to fluctuations in world commodity prices.
“To reduce their exposure to these price fluctuations, it is crucial to accelerate the structural shift to a more diversified and resilient economy.”
The second challenge identified was debt sustainability, with the report stating that several African countries allocate over 50 per cent of their revenues to debt servicing, due to their large development financing needs.
“Ensuring debt sustainability requires more efficient public spending and prioritisation of growth-oriented investment projects.”
The report said the third challenge involved human capital and skill development.
To tackle this challenge, the report suggests that governments should invest more resources to improve healthcare and promote collaboration between the public and private sectors.
“ Strengthening training in sciences and technology facilitates skill development and talent allocation, which is essential for successful structural transformation.”
It said the fourth challenge was the weak social outcomes of economic growth in Africa caused by slow progress in poverty reduction.
“To boost poverty-reducing potential growth, improving the provision of basic public infrastructure and services is vital, reducing dependency on natural resources through structural transformation.
“Addressing inequalities must be an integral part of sustainable development goals, ensuring equitable access to quality education, healthcare, energy, transport infrastructure, and financial services.”
The final challenge identified in the report was the growing concerns about environmental degradation and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events.
“For sustainable economic development, promotion of green growth must align with comprehensive policy frameworks that address climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, while recognizing continental development needs and challenges.”
The 2025 ATEO provides an in-depth analysis of Africa’s economic and trade performance, projecting the continent’s growth trajectory in the short-to-medium term.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The ban on the export of raw shea nuts from Nigeria has been extended by one year by President Bola Tinubu.
A statement from the Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, Mr Bayo Onanuga, on Wednesday disclosed that the ban is now till February 25, 2027.
It was emphasised that this decision underscores the administration’s commitment to advancing industrial development, strengthening domestic value addition, and supporting the objectives of the Renewed Hope Agenda.
The ban aims to deepen processing capacity within Nigeria, enhance livelihoods in shea-producing communities, and promote the growth of Nigerian exports anchored on value-added products, the statement noted.
To further these objectives, President Tinubu has authorised the two Ministers of the Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment, and the Presidential Food Security Coordination Unit (PFSCU), to coordinate the implementation of a unified, evidence-based national framework that aligns industrialisation, trade, and investment priorities across the shea nut value chain.
He also approved the adoption of an export framework established by the Nigerian Commodity Exchange (NCX) and the withdrawal of all waivers allowing the direct export of raw shea nuts.
The President directed that any excess supply of raw shea nuts should be exported exclusively through the NCX framework, in accordance with the approved guidelines.
Additionally, he directed the Federal Ministry of Finance to provide access to a dedicated NESS Support Window to enable the Federal Ministry of Industry, Trade and Investment to pilot a Livelihood Finance Mechanism to strengthen production and processing capacity.
Shea nuts, the oil-rich fruits from the shea tree common in the Savanna belt of Nigeria, are the raw material for shea butter, renowned for its moisturising, anti-inflammatory, and antioxidant properties. The extracted butter is a principal ingredient in cosmetics for skin and hair, as well as in edible cooking oil. The Federal Government encourages processing shea nuts into butter locally, as butter fetches between 10 and 20 times the price of the raw nuts.
The federal government said it remains committed to policies that promote inclusive growth, local manufacturing and position Nigeria as a competitive participant in global agricultural value chains.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange expanded for the first session this week by 1.27 per cent on Wednesday, February 25.
This lifted the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) above 4,000 points, with a 50.45-point addition to close at 4,025.25 points compared with the previous day’s 3,974.80 points, as the market capitalisation added N30.19 billion to close at N2.408 trillion versus Tuesday’s N2.378 trillion.
At the trading session, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc grew by N5.00 to trade at N100.00 per share compared with the previous day’s N95.00 per share, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc improved by N4.18 to sell at N70.00 per unit versus N65.82 per unit, and First Trust Mortgage Bank Plc increased by 14 Kobo to trade at N1.59 per share compared with the previous day’s N1.45 per share.
However, the share price of Geo-Fluids Plc depreciated by 27 Kobo at midweek to close at N3.27 per unit, in contrast to the N3.30 per unit it was transacted a day earlier.
At the midweek session, the volume of securities went down by 25.3 per cent to 8.7 million units from 11.6 million units, the value of securities decreased by 92.5 per cent to N80.7 million from N1.2 billion, and the number of deals slipped by 33.3 per cent to 32 deals from the preceding session’s 48 deals.
At the close of business, CSCS Plc remained the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 34.1 million units exchanged for N2.0 billion, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 6.3 million units traded for N1.1 billion, and Geo-Fluids Plc with 122.0 million units valued at N478.0 million.
Resourcery Plc ended the trading session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 1.05 billion units valued at N408.7 million, followed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 122.0 million units sold for N478.0 million, and CSCS Plc with 34.1 million units worth N2.0 billion.
By Dipo Olowookere
The bears consolidated their dominance on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Wednesday, inflicting an additional 0.09 per cent cut on the market.
At midweek, the market capitalisation of the domestic stock exchange went down by N73 billion to N124.754 trillion from the preceding day’s N124.827 trillion, and the All-Share Index (ASI) slipped by 114.32 points to 194,370.20 points from 194,484.52 points.
A look at the sectoral performance showed that only the consumer goods index closed in green, gaining 1.19 per cent due to buying pressure.
However, sustained profit-taking weakened the insurance space by 3.79 per cent, the banking index slumped by 2.07 per cent, the energy counter went down by 0.24 per cent, and the industrial goods sector shrank by 0.22 per cent.
Business Post reports that 25 equities ended on the gainers’ chart, and 54 equities finished on the losers’ table, representing a negative market breadth index and weak investor sentiment.
RT Briscoe lost 10.00 per cent to sell for N10.35, ABC Transport crashed by 10.00 per cent to N6.75, SAHCO depreciated by 9.98 per cent to N139.35, Haldane McCall gave up 9.93 per cent to trade at N3.99, and Vitafoam Nigeria decreased by 9.93 per cent to N112.50.
Conversely, Jaiz Bank gained 9.95 per cent to settle at N14.03, Okomu Oil appreciated by 9.93 per cent to N1,765.00, Trans-nationwide Express chalked up 9.77 per cent to close at N2.36, Fortis Global Insurance moved up by 9.72 per cent to 79 Kobo, and Champion Breweries rose by 5.39 per cent to N17.60.
Yesterday, 1.4 billion shares worth N46.2 billion were transacted in 70,222 deals compared with the 1.1 billion shares valued at N53.4 billion traded in 72,218 deals a day earlier, implying a rise in the trading volume by 27.27 per cent, and a decline in the trading value and number of deals by 13.48 per cent and 2.76 per cent, respectively.
Fortis Global Insurance ended the session as the busiest stock after trading 193.7 million units for N152.7 million, Zenith Bank transacted 120.7 million units worth N11.1 billion, Japaul exchanged 114.8 million units valued at N407.0 million, Ellah Lakes sold 98.4 million units worth N999.2 million, and Access Holdings traded 63.1 million units valued at N1.7 billion.
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