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Afreximbank Predicts 4% Real GDP Growth for Africa Amid Economic Challenges

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4.03% GDP Growth

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) has projected a 4 per cent real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for Africa in  2025 amid global economic fragility.

This forecast was contained in the 2025 African Trade and Economic Outlook (ATEO) Report carried out by the Cairo-based lender, which noted that Africa’s real GDP could reach 4.1 per cent in 2026 and 4.2 per cent in 2027.

The 2025 African Trade and Economic Outlook (ATEO) provides an in-depth analysis of Africa’s economic and trade performance, projecting the continent’s growth trajectory in the short-to- medium term.

It highlights the key macroeconomic and trade developments shaping Africa’s recovery, detailing opportunities for sustainable growth amid heightening global and domestic uncertainties.

The  2025 ATEO report said 41 per cent of African economies were projected to grow by at least five per cent, nearly double the global rate of 21 per cent, reflecting the continent’s expanding role as a driver of global growth.

According to the report, Africa’s gradual recovery would be supported by increased global demand for African exports, the disinflation trend, and the implementation of structural reforms to diversify African economies

The report said the  were  downside risks to the African economic outlook, including rising geopolitical tensions and fluctuating commodity prices.

“Economic slowdown in the United States and China may also impact the international financial conditions and the demand for African resources.

“Internal conflicts and climate change threaten stability and growth.”

However, the report said potential upside risks include the anticipated decline in global interest rates, which would begin in 2025 if geopolitical uncertainty remained unchanged, potentially enhancing access to financing.

“Additionally, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) presents an opportunity to boost economic integration and intra-African trade, reducing vulnerability to external shocks in the medium term.”

To address potential downside risks, the report suggests several short-term strategies which include  adopting a nuanced and proactive monetary policy stance, and enhancing resilience against climate-related and geopolitical disruptions.

Other strategies include boosting domestic consumption alongside the service sector and accelerating the implementation of the AfCFTA agreement.

In the medium term, the report said strategies should shift toward economic diversification through strategic investments in human capital development and workforce training within key emerging sectors.

“Additionally, efforts should be made to improve economic governance, public infrastructure, and initiatives to strengthen intra-African trade dynamics.”

The report highlighted several challenges and solutions for Africa to attain stability and sustainable development amid a rapidly uncertain global landscape.

The first challenge identified was Africa’s reliance on commodity exports which had made countries vulnerable to fluctuations in world commodity prices.

“To reduce their exposure to these price fluctuations, it is crucial to accelerate the structural shift to a more diversified and resilient economy.”

The second challenge identified was debt sustainability, with the report stating that several African countries allocate over 50 per cent of their revenues to debt servicing, due to their large development financing needs.

“Ensuring debt sustainability requires more efficient public spending and prioritisation of growth-oriented investment projects.”

The report said the third challenge involved human capital and skill development.

To tackle this challenge, the report suggests that governments should invest more resources to improve healthcare and promote collaboration between the public and private sectors.

“ Strengthening training in sciences and technology facilitates skill development and talent allocation, which is essential for successful structural transformation.”

It said the fourth challenge was the weak social outcomes of economic growth in Africa caused by slow progress in poverty reduction.

“To boost poverty-reducing potential growth, improving the provision of basic public infrastructure and services is vital, reducing dependency on natural resources through structural transformation.

“Addressing inequalities must be an integral part of sustainable development goals, ensuring equitable access to quality education, healthcare, energy, transport infrastructure, and financial services.”

The final challenge identified in the report was the growing concerns about environmental degradation and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events.

“For sustainable economic development, promotion of green growth must align with comprehensive policy frameworks that address climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies, while recognizing continental development needs and challenges.”

The 2025 ATEO  provides an in-depth analysis of Africa’s economic and trade performance, projecting the continent’s growth trajectory in the short-to-medium term.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Nigeria, UK Move to Close £1.2bn Trade Data Gap

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trade value

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria and the United Kingdom are moving to tackle a long-standing £1.2 billion discrepancy in their trade records, with both countries agreeing to develop a structured data-sharing system aimed at improving transparency and accountability across bilateral commerce.

The agreement was reached during a high-level meeting in London on March 18, 2026, held on the sidelines of President Bola Tinubu’s State Visit, under the Nigeria–United Kingdom Enhanced Trade and Investment Partnership (ETIP).

According to a statement by Nigeria Customs Service (NCS) spokesperson, Mr Abdullahi Maiwada, the talks signal a shift toward deeper operational cooperation between both countries’ customs authorities.

At the centre of the discussions was a persistent mismatch in trade figures. While Nigeria recorded about £504 million worth of imports from the UK in 2024, British records show exports to Nigeria at approximately £1.7 billion for the same period, leaving a gap of roughly £1.2 billion.

To address this, the two countries agreed to explore a pre-arrival data exchange framework that will connect their digital customs systems, with the aim of improving risk management, reconciling trade data, and strengthening compliance monitoring along the corridor.

The meeting was led by Comptroller-General of Customs, Mr Adewale Adeniyi and Ms Megan Shaw, Head of International Customs and Border Engagement at His Majesty’s Revenue and Customs (HMRC), and also focused on customs modernisation and data transparency.

Mr Adeniyi underscored the broader economic implications of the initiative, noting that customs collaboration plays a central role in trade facilitation.

“Effective customs cooperation remains a critical enabler of economic growth and sustainable trade development,” he said.

He added that “customs administrations serve as the frontline institutions responsible for ensuring that trade flows between both countries are transparent, secure, and mutually beneficial.”

The Nigeria–UK trade relationship spans multiple sectors, including industrial goods, agriculture, energy, and consumer products — all of which depend heavily on efficient port and border operations.

Beyond addressing data gaps, the meeting also highlighted ongoing modernisation efforts on both sides. The UK showcased advancements in artificial intelligence-driven trade tools, digital verification systems, and real-time analytics designed to enhance cargo processing, risk assessment, and border security.

The engagement further produced plans for a Customs Mutual Administrative Assistance Framework, alongside technical groundwork for capacity building, knowledge exchange, and a joint engagement mechanism under the ETIP platform.

Mr Maiwada said the outcomes are expected to strengthen Nigeria’s trade ecosystem and support broader economic reforms.

“The NCS has reaffirmed its commitment to deepening international partnerships as part of a broader modernisation agenda designed to promote transparency, efficiency, and competitiveness in Nigeria’s trading environment,” the statement said.

It added that “insights from this engagement will strengthen its operational capacity, enhance trade facilitation, and support Nigeria’s economic reform objectives under the Renewed Hope programme.”

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Imports $3.74bn Crude in 2025 to Bridge Supply Gap

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Dangote refinery import petrol

By Adedapo Adesanya

Dangote Petroleum Refinery imported a total of $3.74 billion) worth of crude oil in 2025, to make up for shortfalls that threatened the plant’s 650,000-barrel-a-day operational capacity.

The data disclosed in the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Balance of Payments report noted that “Crude oil imports of $3.74 billion by Dangote Refinery” contributed to movements in the country’s current account position, as Nigeria imported crude oil worth N5.734 trillion between January and December 2025.

Last year, as the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), which is the refinery’s main trade partner and minority stakeholder, faced its challenges, the company had to forge alternative supply links. This led to the importation of crude from Brazil, Equatorial Guinea, Angola, Algeria, and the US, among others.

For instance, in March 2025, the company said it now counts Brazil and Equatorial Guinea among its global oil suppliers, receiving up to 1 million barrels of the medium-sweet grade Tupi crude at the refinery on March 26 from Brazil’s Petrobras.

Meanwhile, crude oil exports dropped from $36.85 billion in 2024 to $31.54 billion in 2025, representing a 14.41 per cent decline, further shaping the external balance.

The report added that the refinery’s operations also reduced Nigeria’s reliance on imported fuel, noting that “availability of refined petroleum products from Dangote Refinery also led to a substantial decline in fuel imports.”

Specifically, refined petroleum product imports fell sharply to $10.00 billion in 2025 from $14.06 billion in 2024, representing a 28.9 per cent decline, while total oil-related imports also eased.

However, this was offset by a rise in non-oil imports, which increased from $25.74 billion to $29.24 billion, up 13.6 per cent year-on-year, reflecting sustained demand for foreign goods.

At the same time, the goods account remained in surplus at $14.51 billion in 2025, rising from $13.17 billion in 2024, supported largely by activities linked to the Dangote refinery and improved export performance in other segments.

The CBN stated that the stronger goods balance was driven by “significant export of refined petroleum products worth $5.85bn by Dangote Refinery,” alongside increased gas exports to other economies.

Nigeria posted a current account surplus of $14.04 billion in 2025, lower than the $19.03 billion recorded in 2024 but significantly higher than $6.42 billion in 2023. The decline from 2024 was driven partly by structural changes in oil trade flows, including crude imports for domestic refining, according to the report.

Pressure on the current account came from higher external payments. Net outflows for services rose from $13.36 billion in 2024 to $14.58 billion in 2025, driven by increased spending on transport, travel, insurance, and other services.

Similarly, net outflows in the primary income account surged by 60.88 per cent to $9.09 billion, largely due to higher dividend and interest payments to foreign investors.

In contrast, secondary income inflows declined slightly from $24.88 billion in 2024 to $23.20 billion in 2025, as official development assistance and personal transfers weakened, although remittances remained a key source of inflow, as domestic refineries grappled with persistent feedstock shortages, exposing a deepening supply paradox in the country’s oil sector.

This comes despite the Federal Government’s much-publicised naira-for-crude policy designed to prioritise local supply.

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Economy

Sovereign Trust Insurance Submits Application for N5.0bn Rights Issue

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Sovereign Trust Insurance

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

An application has been submitted by Sovereign Trust Insurance Plc for its proposed N5.0 billion rights issue.

The application was sent to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, and it is for approval to list shares from the exercise when issued to qualifying shareholders.

A notice signed by the Head of Issuer Regulation Department of the exchange, Mr Godstime Iwenekhai, disclosed that the request was filed on behalf of the underwriting firm by its stockbrokers, Cordros Securities Limited, Dynamic Portfolio Limited and Cedar of Lebanon Securities.

The company intends to raise about N5.022 billion from the rights issue to boost its capital base, as demanded by the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM) for insurers in the country.

Sovereign Trust Insurance plans to issue 2,510,848,144 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at N2.00 per share on the basis of three new ordinary shares for every 17 existing ordinary shares held as of the close of business on Tuesday, March 17, 2026.

“Trading license holders are hereby notified that Sovereign Trust Insurance has through its stockbrokers, Cordros Securities Limited, Dynamic Portfolio Limited and Cedar of Lebanon Securities, submitted an application to Nigerian Exchange Limited for the approval and listing of a rights issue of 2,510,848,144 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at N2.00 per share on the basis of three new ordinary shares for every 17 existing ordinary shares held as of the close of business on Tuesday, March 17, 2026,” the notification read.

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