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Africa’s Economy to Rebound 5% in 2021—ECA

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Africa's Internet Economy

By Adedapo Adesanya

The economy of Africa is expected to rebound by 5 per cent next year after declining by 4.1 per cent this year, the UN Economic Commission for Africa (ECA) has said in its new report.

In its report tagged Innovative finance for private sector development in Africa, it was stated that the recovery would be supported by effective response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the measures taken globally to aid economic recovery.

According to the report, imported pharmaceutical products in the middle of a pandemic worth $44 billion would be required for the testing, personal protective equipment for frontline medical staff, equipment and treatment of the coronavirus (COVID-19).

In 2020, spending on health will increase as governments set aside funds to sustain their health systems and absorb costs related to the COVID-19 lockdowns.

In a best-case scenario, $44 billion would be required across Africa for testing, personal protective equipment and treatment of COVID-19 patients requiring hospitalisation and intensive care treatment, the report said.

The report further said that due to the resources being redirected to COVID-19, Africa’s existing health challenges will face spillover costs, as happened in the Ebola crisis. It calls on countries to look into investments in non-COVID-19 health issues which should be kept in view.

The impact of the pandemic will push between 5 million and 29 million people below the extreme poverty line of $1.90 per day, compared with a baseline 2020 African growth scenario, according to ECA projections.

Moreover, reduced demand due to COVID-19 has depressed the prices of agricultural commodities such as coffee, tea and cocoa, which is expected to affect vulnerable small-scale farmers in Africa.

The report advocates for investment to build key infrastructure and foster innovation. Despite Africa’s growth, many economies remain unsophisticated or undiversified, due to low levels of innovation, limited productive capabilities, low investment and poor quality of education.

Building capabilities will require investments in human and physical capital.

The report projected that an estimated financing gap of $2.5 trillion will be for all emerging and developing countries and $200 billion– $1.3 trillion for Africa.

This is because Africa’s population is expected to grow by 43 per cent over 2015–2030, the gap could reach $19.5 trillion by 2030.

Meanwhile, climate change is increasing seasonal variability, frequency and intensity of droughts and floods, and shifting habitats and agro-ecological zones due to climate change can cause food insecurity, lower trade balances, raise inflation pressure and fiscal imbalances.

For instance, cyclone Idai, which hit Mozambique in March–April 2019, weakened the economy, took 1,000 lives and caused $700 million–$1 billion in damages to property and other losses.

African economies remained the second fastest-growing region in the world with growth estimated at 3.4 per cent in 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic will impact growth to decelerate to between 1.8 per cent and -4.1 per cent in 2020.

In order to promote the recovery from the COVID-19 impact, the report calls on African countries to regulate their bank sector to limit the possible harm from banking crises or from more general system-wide misallocation of resources.

For the sake of private sector development, the regulation of banks and other sources of capital for funding private industry, such as equity and debt capital markets and digital platforms, needs to be strengthened.

The report noted that the regulations that concern the banking sector alone may be insufficient to safeguard the financial system against some of the risks fintech services pose, such as data privacy, money laundering, mismatched risk and return, and systemic risk.

Africa needs to rethink its financial services regulation so that innovation is fully functional, the environment enables innovation, transparency is enhanced, and financing for private sector development is delivered, the report stated.

These new risks call for financial regulation to be reviewed to provide a flexible environment for fintech to develop that is strict enough to limit the risks. Some African countries have limited fiscal space and international reserves and thus lack the necessary resources to implement COVID-19 responses.

According to IMF data, African countries will record fiscal deficits averaging 5.8 per cent in 2020 and 4.4 per cent in 2021, compared with 3 per cent in 2019.

However, African policymakers’ and regulators’ experience with the 2008–2009 financial crisis and the use of various measures to cushion its impact give them an advantage in rapidly responding to the COVID-19 crisis.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

NGX Group, FG to Deepen Women’s Inclusion in Capital Markets

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capital market operators CMOs

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The federal government, through the Minister of Women Affairs and Social Development, is working together with the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Group Plc to deepen the participation of women in capital markets.

The Minister of Women Affairs and Social Development, Ms Imaan Sulaiman-Ibrahim, underscored the urgency of inclusion in achieving national economic ambitions.

“The capital market reflects our collective choices, who participates, who has access, and who benefits. Women remain underrepresented in formal finance despite their critical role in Nigeria’s productivity.

“Through strategic partnerships and targeted interventions, we are working to change this narrative and expand opportunities for women across the economy.

“Achieving a one-trillion-dollar economy requires the full participation of Nigerian women,” she said at the closing gong ceremony at the NGX on Tuesday in Lagos.

She said the government was ready to partner with capital market stakeholders to expand financial access and unlock opportunities for women across the country.

Welcoming the Minister, the chairman of NGX Group, Mr Umaru Kwairanga, commended the Ministry’s leadership in promoting women’s development and economic participation.

“Women are central to Nigeria’s economic progress. As we work towards a more inclusive and resilient economy, the capital market remains a vital platform for expanding access to finance, supporting women-led enterprises, and enabling broader participation in wealth creation.

“NGX Group remains committed to partnering with the Ministry to drive sustainable impact and empower the next generation of women leaders,” he stated.

Also speaking, the Director General of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Mr Emomotimi Agama, emphasised the importance of deliberate inclusion.

“Behind every successful market are women. For Nigeria’s capital market to reach its full potential, we must be intentional about empowering women as active participants.

“Current participation levels do not yet reflect our population or potential. Collaborations like this send a strong call to action for more women across Nigeria to engage with the market and contribute to national growth,” the SEC chief stated.

On his part, the chief executive of NGX Group, Mr Temi Popoola, said, “At NGX Group, we are building a dynamic and inclusive market ecosystem that expands access to investment opportunities and supports diverse participants. Through partnerships such as this, we are unlocking new pathways for women to participate as investors, entrepreneurs, and wealth creators.”

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Economy

Nigeria Can’t do Without Importing Fuel For Now—Lokpobiri

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Fuel Import

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Mr Heineken Lokpobiri, has acknowledged that the country still depends on imported petroleum products as domestic refining cannot fully meet local demand.

Speaking on the state of the downstream sector at the CERAWeek by S&P Global Conference in Houston, Texas, Mr Lokpobiri acknowledged that while local refining capacity has improved significantly, it remains insufficient to fully cover national consumption.

The Minister noted that Nigeria was making measurable progress, with domestic refining contributing a growing share of supply, but added that imports remain a critical component of the country’s fuel supply mix for now.

“We are not yet at a point where local production alone can satisfy total consumption,” he said, underscoring the need to sustain imports while capacity continues to build.

The Minister emphasised that Nigeria’s daily fuel consumption stands at about 50 million litres, while domestic refining output remains below that level, making imports necessary to bridge the shortfall and ensure supply stability.

Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) aligns with this position, showing that although local refining volumes have risen in recent months, they are not yet sufficient to fully meet national demand.

Dangote refinery had earlier this year said it can supply 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) daily against an estimated national consumption of 50 million litres, alongside 25 million litres of Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) compared with an estimated daily demand of 14 million litres.

It also stated that it has the capacity to supply 20 million litres of aviation fuel daily, far above the estimated maximum domestic consumption of four million litres.

According to the refinery, the availability of volumes above prevailing demand provides critical supply buffers, enhances market stability and reduces reliance on imports, particularly during periods of peak demand or logistical disruption.

The minister highlighted what he described as a fundamental shift in Nigeria’s petroleum sector following recent reforms.

He noted that Nigeria has moved away from a subsidy-driven regime that, for years, placed a heavy fiscal burden on the country and distorted the downstream market.

According to him, the removal of subsidies has not only eased pressure on government finances but also curtailed widespread fuel smuggling and arbitrage that previously thrived under price differentials.

Mr Lokpobiri said the deregulation of the downstream sector is beginning to deliver results, with a more transparent and competitive market structure emerging. This, he added, is helping to restore investor confidence and attract new investments into refining and related infrastructure.

The minister also pointed to ongoing efforts to rehabilitate existing refineries and support new refining projects, noting that these initiatives are critical to closing the gap between production and consumption.

He emphasised that while Nigeria is making steady progress toward boosting domestic refining capacity, noting that the transition will take time to sustain investment and policy consistency.

At the same time, Mr Lokpobiri underscored Nigeria’s ambition to evolve beyond meeting local demand to becoming a supplier of refined petroleum products within the West African region.

However, he maintained that achieving that goal depends first on significantly expanding domestic capacity.

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Economy

Nigeria to Improve Efficiency in Import, Export Processes

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Nigerian Ports

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria is targeting cutting port delays, reducing costs, and improving efficiency in import and export processes with the National Single Window (NSW), a major digital trade reform.

The reform initiative is designed to address cargo dwell time, eliminate multiple agency visits and process duplication, and reduce human interference and operational bottlenecks.

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, speaking in Lagos, explained that the initiative, alongside the upgrade of Apapa and Tin Can Island ports, represents a turning point in Nigeria’s trade and economic trajectory.

Mr Edun said that as of 2025, cargo dwell time at Nigerian ports averages between 18 and 21 days, about 475 per cent higher than the global average of four days, resulting in high costs of doing business, delays for importers and exporters, and reduced competitiveness of Nigerian goods.

According to him, the NSW and port modernisation are part of a broader economic strategy under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to strengthen macroeconomic stability, improve the ease of doing business, attract and scale investment, and achieve a 7 per cent medium-term economic growth target.

He added that the reforms demonstrate a coordinated, system-wide approach to economic transformation.

“Phase 1 of the NSW directly targets the 73 per cent transaction delay component by introducing a single digital platform for trade documentation, eliminating multiple agency visits and duplicative processes, and enabling electronic submission of Licences, Permits, and Certificates (LPCOs), digital manifest processing, centralised risk management across agencies, transparent electronic payments, faster document processing, reduced human interface and bottlenecks, and more predictable and transparent timelines,” he said.

He added that the launch of Phase 1 of the NSW coincides with last week’s deal to upgrade Apapa Port (built in 1913) and Tin Can Island Port (built in 1977), describing both as coordinated reforms designed to cut cargo dwell time, reduce trade costs, and unlock economic growth.

According to the Minister of Trade and Investment, Mrs Jumoke Oduwole, the platform is scheduled to go live on Friday and will include one shipping line and one port.

“These are the kinds of game changers in terms of trade facilitation ⁠that we need,” Oduwole said, adding that it is a priority project for an economy of Nigeria’s size that is working to emphasise trading.

Mrs Oduwole said streamlining imports and exports at the ports could have a “multiplier effect” in terms of balance ‌of ⁠trade and foreign exchange generation.

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