Economy
Analysts Seek Urgent Reforms to Avert Another Recession in Nigeria

By Dipo Olowookere
The desperate need for the Nigerian government to come up with policy and structural reforms to avert another economic recession in Nigeria has been emphasised by analysts at United Capital Research.
In their daily market report on Tuesday, the financial and investment services power house said Nigeria and South Africa, the two biggest economies in Africa, must return to a sustainable long medium term growth.
On Tuesday, data from South Africa’s statistical agency, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), showed that in addition to a steeper 2.6 percent q/q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) contraction recorded in Q1-18, the country’s GDP fell further by 0.7 percent q/q in Q2-18 – technically pushing the nation into recession.
United Capital Research, in its report titled ‘African Giants: Why are the mighty falling?’ it was disclosed that the South African recession came in a period where Nigeria, another African giant, recorded a further slowdown in its Q2-18 GDP growth to 1.5 percent after crawling out of recession in Q2-17, noting that this trend underscores the fragility of its economic recovery, prompting the above question.
While the Nigerian economic slump of 2016 and the recent Q2-18 slowdown are resulting effects of downturns in the Oil sector, the recent South African economic collapse is traced to massive output declines in the Agriculture, Trade and Manufacturing sectors. Also, strengthening dollar, escalating trade tensions and routs across emerging markets, added to the worries of African giants during the period – especially South Africa.
“However, both countries face serious structural obstacles which include high unemployment rates and policy stagnation. Thus, we believe that for these African giants to return to a sustainable long medium term growth, there is a desperate need for policy and structural reforms,” the report said.
Economy
Strong Investor Demand for Banking Stocks Lifts Customs Street by 0.45%

By Dipo Olowookere
Sustained buying pressure, especially in the banking sector, pushed the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited higher by 0.45 per cent on Wednesday.
According to data obtained from the bourse, the banking index was up by 2.12 per cent, the consumer goods space rose by 2.11 per cent, and the industrial goods sector improved by 0.15 per cent.
However, the other sectors came under profit-taking, with the commodity counter declining by 0.25 per cent, the energy counter shedding 0.18 per cent, and the insurance sector losing 0.15 per cent.
At the close of trades, the All-Share Index (ASI) grew by 488.73 points to 108,849.83 points from 108,361.10 points and the market capitalisation expanded by N307 billion to N68.412 trillion from N68.105 trillion.
During the session, UPDC REIT gained 10.00 per cent to settle at N6.60, Meyer also leapt by 10.00 per cent to N8.80, Beta Glass advanced by 9.98 per cent to N146.05, The Initiates went up by 9.95 per cent to N6.08, and Vitafoam Nigeria moved up by 9.94 per cent to N55.85.
However, Deap Capital lost 10.00 per cent to quote at N1.08, Veritas Kapital depreciated by 9.09 per cent to N1.00, Linkage Assurance crashed by 6.61 per cent to N1.13, Africa Prudential dwindled by 5.60 per cent to N16.00, and UDPC retreated by 4.46 per cent to N3.00.
Business Post reports that a total of 50 equities ended on the gainers’ log yesterday and 16 equities finished on the losers’ side, representing a positve market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.
The market participants traded 587.5 million shares valued at N18.7 billion in 17,496 deals at midweek versus the 475.5 million shares worth N13.9 billion transacted in 17,575 deals on Tuesday, showing a decline of 0.45 per cent in the number of deals, and a growth in the trading volume and value by 23.55 per cent and 34.53 per cent, respectively.
The most active stock was GTCO with a turnover of 98.6 million units valued at N6.6 billion, Tantalizers traded 75.5 million units worth N175.2 million, Fidelity Bank exchanged 40.5 million units for N816.0 million, Zenith Bank transacted 38.5 million units worth N1.9 billion, and Nigerian Breweries sold 30.5 million units valued at N1.6 billion.
Economy
Oil Market Falls Amid Doubt in US-China Trade Talks

By Adedapo Adesanya
The oil market fell on Wednesday as investors doubted that upcoming US-China trade talks would result in a breakthrough, with Brent crude losing $1.03 or 1.66 per cent to trade at $61.12 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude shedding $1.02 or 1.73 per cent to sell for $58.07 a barrel.
The US and China are due to meet in Switzerland, which could be the first step toward resolving a trade war disrupting the global economy.
The trade talks between the world’s two largest economies come after weeks of escalating tensions.
President Donald Trump had protested China’s unfair advantage in global trade and slammed tariffs on imports, which has led to reciprocity from the Asian country.
Now, duties on goods imports between the countries have soared well beyond 100 per cent.
Meanwhile, market analysts have said that unless the US receives major trade concessions, further de-escalation seems unlikely, with US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent describing the talks as “the opposite of advanced.”
In other related matters, US Vice President JD Vance described talks the US and Iran as “so far, so good” adding that there was a deal to be made that would reintegrate Iran into the global economy while preventing it from getting a nuclear weapon.
Previously, the US had threatened secondary sanctions on Iran after a fourth round of talks were postponed between both countries. This could threaten production of more than 3 million barrels per day, or about 3 per cent of global output.
This deal, if reached, could see the US lift the sanctions on Iranian oil, which right now is under maximum pressure.
The US Federal Reserve held interest rates steady but said the risks of higher inflation and unemployment had risen.
This development further economic outlook as the US central bank grapples with the impact of President Trump’s tariff policies.
US crude inventories fell by 2 million barrels to 438.4 million barrels in the week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said.
Also, rising conflict in the Middle East between Israel and the Houthis could increase the geopolitical risk premium, making prices go up.
Economy
Nigeria’s Oil Production Drops 64,000b/d to 1.401m/d in April 2025

By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s average daily crude oil production declined by 64,000 barrels per day or 4.4 per cent to 1.401 million barrels per day in April 2025 from 1.465 million barrels per day recorded in the preceding month (March).
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) April Monthly Oil Market Report revealed this, saying the numbers are based on direct communication from the producing countries.
The report also indicated that oil production fell by 6.6 per cent below OPEC’s 1.5 million barrels per day quota, and approximately 32 per cent belief of the country’s 2025 budget target of 2.06 million barrels per day.
Nigeria’s persistent shortfalls in meeting government production targets comes from challenges such as underinvestment and rampant oil theft, all contributing to suppressed output.
Nigeria’s oil production peaked at 2.5 million barrels decades ago and despite ambitious 3-4 million barrels promises by subsequent governments, the highest actualisation in recent times have been 1.8 million barrels per day.
The decline in oil production since then and the falling oil prices in the international market are likely to strain fiscal revenues, worsening budgetary pressures
Market analysts have pointed out that this will impact national reserves, thereby reducing the availability of resources for developmental spending.
While the government has no control over global oil prices, it can, to some extent, meet its OPEC production quota.
Therefore, the government must intensify efforts by enforcing stricter penalties for oil theft, while fostering greater collaboration with local communities.
Simultaneously, there is a need to attract investment in the sector by ensuring that regulatory bodies and the judiciary work together to provide an enabling environment for investment and modernisation of oil infrastructure.
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