Economy
Analysts Warn of Increased Security Threat to Nigerian Oil Industry
By Adedapo Adesanya
Rising security threats are posing a major risk to Nigeria, a key supplier of light sweet crude grades to Europe, industry officials and analysts have warned.
S&P Global Platts Analytics expects Nigeria to be one of the largest risks for the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+) production growth in end-2021 and has warned supply threats by militants could resurface as violence is rising in the southeast of the country.
Last month, gunmen attacked a convoy of workers involved in Shell’s Assa North gas development project in Imo State, causing fatalities. Shell shut down the gas plant and other facilities in the vicinity following the incident.
According to a Platts report, Nigeria has the capacity to produce around 2.2 million-2.3 million barrels per day of crude and condensate, but production has averaged only around 1.62 million barrels per day for the first seven months of 2021.
Key crudes such as Bonny Light, Escravos, Forcados, and Qua Iboe have all faced production issues due to operational and technical issues.
According to the report, the latest rise in security threats would impact the Nigerian oil industry, especially in the area of production costs, something the country is trying to reduce to $10 per barrel, as companies will need to spend more on protection for workers and facilities.
The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) has said the increasing attacks by bandits and other criminal activities, including kidnapping for ransoms in the oil hubs of Port Harcourt and Warri, have also stifled foreign direct investment into the Nigerian economy.
“We are finding it increasingly difficult to put our members in check as their restiveness regarding the growth and rise of insecurity across the country is getting out of control and the accompanying consequences are unimaginable,” the oil union said in a statement on August 27.
In addition, some of Nigeria’s main oil infrastructure has also faced persistent sabotage in the past few months including pipeline vandalism.
Nigeria has a long history of security issues impacting its oil industry. Militants operating in the Niger Delta ramped up attacks on oil fields and terminals in 2016, pushing production to a low of 1.4 million barrels per day.
In response, President Muhammadu Buhari retained a presidential amnesty program for militants to maintain peace in the Niger Delta which was first instituted in 2009.
The initial introduction of the program back in 2009 helped rein in activities that had caused extensive damage but there is now a concern that some groups may opt-out of the amnesty leading to more attacks on oil infrastructure.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The board of Geregu Power Plc has acknowledged the concerns raised by shareholders, stakeholders, as well as regulators over the inability of the company to pay bondholders for their investment in its N40 billion bond sale.
There were reports that the power-generating organisation defaulted in repaying investors who bought its debt instrument.
In 2022, the company issued a seven-year paper to investors at a coupon of 14.5 per cent to be paid semi-annually. The note is expected to mature in July 2029. But data from the FMDQ Securities Exchange showed that there have been defaults in the 8th coupon payment and the 4th bullet principal repayment.
Reacting to the issue on Thursday, Geregu said it is actively having talks with advisers and others on ways to iron things out.
“Geregu remains actively engaged with relevant stakeholders and advisers regarding the resolution of the various challenges and is committed to achieving an orderly and mutually beneficial outcome.
“Discussions and engagements are ongoing, and the Company will continue to act in good faith in fulfilling its responsibilities,” part of the statement signed by its scribe, The Structure HQ, stated.
The firm explained that since assuming responsibility for its affairs, the current board and management have undertaken a comprehensive review and reconciliation of its transactions, liabilities, operational commitments, financing arrangements, financial obligations and related corporate documentation.
It stressed that this action was to ensure transparency, accuracy and prudent financial management, adding that it remains committed to transparency, responsible corporate governance and constructive engagement with all stakeholders.
The majority stake of Geregu Power was controlled by Mr Femi Otedola. He divested his stake in the energy firm in 2025, with the sale of 95 per cent of his shares in Amperion to MA”AM Energy.
Earlier in 2023, he sold N399 million shares of Geregu to another investor. Before then, he sold his stake in Forte Oil to invest in Geregu Power, which now has the former Governor of Zamfara State, Mr Abdulaziz Yari, as its chairman.
By Adedapo Adesanya
A former Commissioner for Insurance of the National Insurance Commission (NAICOM), Mr Mohamed Kari, has warned the federal government to reduce its intervention in the sector’s post-recapitalisation process.
He charged the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, to ignore calls for regulatory concessions in the just-concluded insurance industry recapitalisation exercise in the country.
The call, he said, was critical, especially when the companies clamouring for such concessions were chronic defaulters whose failure or strict regulatory discipline poses absolutely zero systemic risk to the Nigerian financial system or the broader economy.
Recall that NAICOM had requested insurance companies, as part of the recapitalisation process, to transfer their entire recapitalisation funds into an escrow account with the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). However, NICON Insurance and Nigeria Re, in a recent petition, had petitioned NAICOM over what they described as unlawful fees and regulatory demands arising from the implementation of the Nigerian Insurance Industry Reform Act (NIIRA) 2025.
Mr Kari, who was also a former chief executive of NICON Insurance and Nigeria Re, said it was globally accepted that a government may occasionally intervene to rescue or support a consequential player in the financial sector, strictly where its distress poses a genuine ‘too big to fail’ systemic risk whose collapse would trigger a wider economic catastrophe.
“However, one must examine the reality of the two institutions in question today. These are no longer the market giants they once were decades ago,” he said.
He warned that having suffered years of steep decline, loss of market share, and severe operational shrinkage, their current market footprint is virtually insignificant.
“Their failure or strict regulatory discipline poses absolutely zero systemic risk to the Nigerian financial system or the broader economy. Why then should government intervene to shield operators whose distress carries no systemic consequence whatsoever?
“Rescuing or granting regulatory concessions to insignificant, chronic defaulters cannot be justified under any sound macroeconomic policy,” he added.
“When political intervention steps in to shield such non-systemic entities from standard regulatory checks, the equilibrium of the market breaks down as it creates unfair advantage.
“Operators that meet compliance targets carry the full cost of regulatory fidelity, while non-compliant firms that secure political exemptions operate with an artificial cost advantage.
“It disincentivises real capacity building: When political lobbying becomes an alternative to recapitalisation, companies are discouraged from making the hard structural choices necessary to refine their balance sheets and operations.”
He noted that if such a concession is granted to both insurance industry players in the defunct, it “distorts investor confidence: Both domestic and international investors look for predictable, transparent environments. A playing field where rules can be bent for select players frightens away patient capital. It weakens policyholder protection.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
Aradel Holdings Plc is set to commence production of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) at its modular refinery in 2027, following the removal of fuel subsidies and the deregulation of the downstream petroleum market.
According to Aradel’s general manager of refinery, Mr Temitayo Ogunbanjo, the removal of government control over fuel prices had created an opportunity for the company to begin manufacturing petrol.
Speaking on the sidelines of a conference in Abuja, Mr Ogunbanjo told Bloomberg that the company’s 11,000 barrels-per-day modular refinery currently already produces kerosene, diesel, gas oil and naphtha.
He noted that the deregulation of the downstream petroleum market has now created a pathway for Aradel to commence gasoline production at its refinery.
He added that Aradel is also considering an expansion of the refinery, with the company assessing potential crude supply sources and export logistics as part of its plans.
The company’s integrated operations across crude oil production, refining and distribution have benefited from recent volatility in global oil markets triggered by the US-Iran war, he told the publication.
Mr Ogunbanjo also disclosed that Aradel is considering investments in aviation fuel production, as the product has emerged as an important export to the European market.
The planned petrol production is expected to further expand Aradel’s refining operations as Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector adjusts to the post-subsidy regime and increased private-sector participation.
It could also mean competition for other dominant refiners and importers, particularly the 700,000 barrels per day Dangote Refinery. Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) showed that Dangote supplied 87.55 per cent of Nigeria’s petrol demand in May 2026.
