Economy
Are Stop Losses for Wimps?
By Steve Brice
When I started out in banking, I was based in a dealing room advising traders on potential positions to take. The positions were focused and generally very short-term in nature. Therefore, risk management was not a ‘nice-to-have’, it was vital to job security. When entering a trade, a stop-loss – a level at which the position taken would be unwound if it was losing money – was a must.
It was against this backdrop that a former colleague quipped that ‘stop-losses are for wimps’. He was of course referring to certain stocks in his portfolio which had fallen dramatically – he was probably justifying to himself why he should keep it! However, it raises an interesting question: Should we employ stop-losses when we invest?
While many people will be very passionate about this topic, as with most things in life, context is key. If you think about it, the existence of the stop-loss is a hedge against the fact that nobody knows what is going to happen and therefore you need to build in a circuit-breaker to avoid the behavioural biases that come with a loss-making position – the ostrich, or ‘head in the sand’, syndrome.
So, how does this translate for an average investor? I would argue that there are two dimensions to consider: the nature of investments being discussed and your time horizon. Let’s take each in turn.
I have a much greater conviction level that a diversified ‘foundation’ allocation (which includes exposure to different asset classes such as stocks, bonds, gold and private assets), or even a diversified equity portfolio, is more likely to rise over a given period of time than any individual stock.
The reason is simple. Different asset classes have different drivers and hence are usually uncorrelated in their moves. Therefore, just combining them into a portfolio smooths out the bumps and increases the probability of positive returns for the portfolio as a whole.
When it comes to the stock market, there are also different drivers that determine equity market or individual stock returns, but let’s simplify them into broad market drivers and idiosyncratic drivers. If the economy enters a recession, then most stocks will fall sharply in value. However, a company’s failed product launch will largely hit one stock, and those of a few of its suppliers. Its impact on the overall market will be much less severe.
This brings me to Principle Number 1: The broader the investment, the less likely a stop-loss is warranted and that a buy on dips approach makes sense.
A very good friend of mine recently questioned how applicable this ‘buy on dips’ approach was to stock markets outside of the US. So, we ran the numbers for some major global and Asian markets in terms of probability of positive returns over different time horizons and the potential size of returns for investors. The results are pretty interesting.
First, the historical probability of positive equity market returns across any given 12-month period, at around a two-thirds probability, is generally similar across major global or Asian indices – China is an outlier at just 55%. If you extend your time horizon to 5 years, this probability generally increases to around 80% – the outliers are Japan’s TOPIX (66%) and India’s Sensex (92%).
Second, we looked at what has happened after a 10% or 15% market pullback. Focusing on the 1-year time horizon, we can break the countries into 3 groups:
1) either the probability of positive returns or size of average return or both have increased significantly after a market sell-off. Markets that fall into this group include the US, Germany, UK, India.
2) there is no material change in either variable. This includes Hong Kong, Malaysia and Korea. Once you lengthen your time horizon to 5 years though, they all move into the first group.
3) the probability of positive returns or their average quantum actually declines after a sell-off. Japan and onshore China markets fit into this group. On a 5-year time horizon, China also moves into the first group but, interestingly, Japan stays firmly in group 3.
Hence the conclusion is: outside of Japan, the ‘buy on dips’ mantra has made sense, especially when held by long-term investors.
The above analysis highlights the importance of the last factor: time horizon. The dealing room environment generally takes narrow exposures over a very short time horizon. Thus, stop-losses are crucial. However, I believe the message for the average investor is the reverse as long as they are focused on a diversified foundation allocation with a long-term focus.
Structural thematic investments also potentially fall into this category. The longer your time horizon, the more likely your investment is to generate positive returns as long as the structural fundamentals remain supportive. Here, again, instead of a stop-loss being appropriate, market declines offer an opportunity to add to longer-term thematic positions given the likelihood that declines will prove temporary.
Principle number 2: The longer your time horizon, the less desirable a stop-loss is, especially for diversified allocations or long-term structural themes.
Thus, for investors who are trying to trade the market and pick stocks, we believe a strict risk management framework including the use of stop-losses is absolutely critical to returns. However, we believe the majority of investors would be much better served by building a foundation allocation with a ‘buy on dips’ approach. Investors can systematise this ‘buy on dips’ approach through regular portfolio rebalancing – say at least once or twice a year and especially after major market dislocations to bring their allocations back to their desired risk tolerance. Such rebalancing is akin to an investor systematically “buying low and selling high” – a win-win proposition. For these investors, stop-losses are likely to get in the way of wealth accumulation.
Steve Brice is Chief Investment Officer at Standard Chartered Bank’s Wealth Management division
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited ended Friday’s trading session lower with a marginal decline of 0.01 per cent as a result of continued market volatility.
Customs Street was down during the last trading session of the week despite bargain-hunting activities in the banking and industrial goods sectors, which closed higher by 0.51 per cent and 0.01 per cent, respectively.
Business Post reports that profit-taking in the other sectors contributed to the downfall of the local bourse yesterday, with the insurance index weakening by 3.21 per cent.
Further, the energy counter went down by 0.50 per cent, and the consumer goods space depreciated by 0.24 per cent, while the commodity industry closed flat.
At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) shrank by 13.37 points to 105,511.89 points from 105,525.26 points and the market capitalisation declined by N8 billion to settle at N66.147 trillion versus Thursday’s closing value of N66.155 trillion.
A total of 348.3 million shares worth N8.1 billion exchanged hands in 11,444 deals on Friday compared with the 397.1 million shares valued at N8.7 billion traded in 13,667 deals a day earlier, implying a drop in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 12.29 per cent, 6.90 per cent, and 16.27 per cent, respectively.
The activity log was led by UBA with the sale of 26.3 million stocks for N972.3 million, United Capital traded 25.6 million shares valued at N391.5 million, FCMB exchanged 24.2 million equities worth N211.2 million, Zenith Bank transacted 22.9 million shares valued at N1.1 billion, and Fidelity Bank traded 22.6 million stocks worth N441.7 million.
Investor sentiment remained bearish yesterday after the NGX finished with 19 price gainers and 29 price losers, showing a negative market breadth index.
Lasaco Assurance and AXA Mansard were the worst-performing equities with a decline of 10.00 per cent each to sell for N2.34, and N8.64 apiece, May and Baker decreased by 8.72 per cent to N7.85, Guinea Insurance crashed by 8.70 per cent to 63 Kobo, and FTN Cocoa lost 6.43 per cent to end at N1.60.
However, Learn Africa and Livestock Feeds closed as the best-performing stocks after they gained 10.00 per cent each to quote at N3.30, and N7.92, respectively, VFD Group soared by 9.83 per cent to N57.00, Union Dicon expanded by 9.43 per cent to N5.80, and NGX Group rose by 8.17 per cent to N32.45.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The duo of FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc and Food Concepts Plc weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.21 per cent on Friday, April 4.
FrieslandCampina Wamco Plc lost N1.86 to close at N36.80 per unit compared with Thursday’s closing value of N38.66 per unit, and Food Concepts Plc recorded a 1 Kobo decline to end at N1.17 per share versus the preceding session’s N1.18 per share.
This dragged down the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) by 6.88 points at the close of business to 3,309.46 points from the previous day’s 3,316.34 points and the market capitalisation dropped N3.97 billion to settle at N1.911 trillion, in contrast to the N1.915 trillion it ended at the preceding session.
At the unlisted securities yesterday, the volume of trades increased by 247.9 per cent to 1.3 million units from the 372,568 units transacted in the previous trading day.
Equally, the value of transactions surged by 23.2 per cent to N1.3 million from N4.1 million, but the number of deals went down by 50 per cent to 20 deals from the 40 deals recorded on Thursday.
When the bourse ended for the session, Impresit Bakolori Plc remained the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with a turnover of 533.9 million units worth N520.9 million, trailed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 71,2 million units worth N24.2 million, and Geo Fluids Plc with 44.2 million units sold for N89.4 million.
FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc also remained as the most traded equity by value on a year-to-date basis with the sale of 13.8 million units valued at N534.7 million, followed by Impresit Bakolori Plc with 533.9 million units worth N520.9 million, and Afriland Properties Plc with 17.8 million units sold for N364.2 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira extended its loss against the United States Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) by 1.45 per cent or N22.49 on Friday, April 4.
Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that the local currency was exchanged to a Dollar at N1,573.23/$1 during the session compared with the N1,550.74/$1 it was transacted on Thursday.
Similarly, the domestic currency weakened against the Euro in the official market yesterday by N2.91 to settle at N1,725.29/€1, in contrast to the previous day’s N1,722.38/€1 but on the British Pound Sterling, it appreciated by N12.27 to sell for N2,031.02/£1 versus the preceding session’s N2,043.29/£1.
In the black market, the Nigerian currency lost N10 against the greenback on Friday to trade at N1,570/$1 compared with the N1,560/$1 it was transacted a day earlier.
The Naira’s negative outcome aligns with a wider slowdown in the global financial markets as retaliatory tariffs weaken outlook and raise possibility of a recession.
Already, Nigeria could face lower foreign exchange earnings from oil, which could be impacted heavily by tariffs.
As for the cryptocurrency market, it remained mixed after China announced retaliatory tariffs on all goods, responding to President Donald Trump’s Wednesday decision to boost the overall levy on Chinese goods to 54 per cent.
The concensus is that China’s response is not only negative for the US but it is also impacting the global outlook.
Binance Coin (BNB) shed 0.5 per cent to close at $594.69, Cardano (ADA) went down by 0.5 per cent to $0.6561, Litecoin (LTC) dropped 0.4 per cent to close at $84.09, Bitcoin (BTC) tumbled by 0.05 per cent to $83,444.13, Ethereum (ETH) declined by 0.04 per cent to $1,810.12, and the US Dollar Tether (USDT) moderated by 0.03 per cent to $0.9997.
On the flip side, Ripple (XRP) jumped by 3.1 per cent to $2.13, Solana (SOL) appreciated by 2.8 per cent to $120.63, and Dogecoin (DOGE) leapt by 2.4 per cent to $0.1690, while the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00.
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