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Economy

Brent to Trade at $105 Per Barrel in 2022–Fitch

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Brent Price

By Adedapo Adesanya

Fitch Solutions Country Risk & Industry Research has revealed that it expects the price of Brent crude oil, which Nigeria among other countries prices its headline crude, to average $105 per barrel this year.

This was disclosed in its latest oil price outlook, which outlines where the company sees the commodity going through to 2026.

According to its latest forecast, Fitch Solutions now expects the Brent crude oil price to average $105 per barrel in 2022, $100 per barrel in 2023, $88 per barrel in 2024 and 2025, and $85 per barrel in 2026.

“We have made an upward revision to our Brent crude price forecast this month,” analysts at Fitch Solutions stated in the report, which was sent to Rigzone.

“We now forecast Brent to average $105 per barrel in 2022, up from $100 per barrel previously. For 2023, we have revised the forecast from $90 per barrel to $100 per barrel. The revision reflects a strong price performance over Q2 and expectation of greater and more persistent tightness in the global oil market than we had previously anticipated,” the analysts added.

In the report, Fitch Solutions analysts noted that Russian exports will come under increasing pressure over the second half of the year as the EU approaches its partial import ban on Russian crude oil, effective December 5.

The analysts stated that coordinated releases of strategic petroleum reserves are helping improve market supply but added that production remains heavily constrained and coordinated releases are planned only until the end of this year.

In addition, the analysts said OPEC+ continues to fall far short of its monthly production targets, “while questions are being asked as to the ability of Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which hold the bulk of global spare capacity, to significantly raise production in the near term”.

“Although we believe the capacity is there, the constraints of the OPEC+ deal and Saudi Arabia’s reluctance to run down its spare capacity will limit the upside to output in H2,” the analysts stated in the report.

The analysts added in the report that rising political instability in Libya has triggered renewed production outages and highlighted that the Iranian nuclear deal is at increasing risk of delay and that shale producers in the United States are exercising continued financial restraint.

“While supply-side drivers are firmly bullish, the demand side is more mixed,” the analysts noted in the report.

“We are currently forecasting strong consumption growth in 2022 and 2023, at 2.3 per cent and 3.0 per cent, respectively, supported by the ongoing recovery of demand lost during the pandemic. However, the risks to this forecast are skewed heavily to the downside, as higher energy costs and a broader cost-of-living crisis threaten consumption,” the analysts added.

“Moreover, the economy is facing major headwinds in the form of persistent inflationary pressure and tightening financial conditions, heightened financial market volatility, rising social unrest and slowing growth in China raising the risk of recession,” they continued.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Geregu Power to List Shares on Stock Exchange

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Geregu Power

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited will have a new member in the coming days as an electricity generating firm, Geregu Power Plc, is planning to list its shares on the platform.

According to regulatory documents, the company will list a total of 2.5 billion units of its shares at N100.00 per unit by way of introduction on the bourse, increasing the market capitalisation of the exchange by N250 billion.

The listing of these equities is expected on Wednesday and a ceremony to commemorate it will happen later this month.

“We look forward to hosting you at the exchange on October 25 or 26, 2022, for a closing gong ceremony to commemorate the listing,” a message to Geregu Power by the chief executive of the NGX, Mr Temi Popoola, read in part.

Geregu Power has Mr Femi Otedola as its majority shareholder. He left the stock exchange a few years ago after he sold his holdings in the defunct Forte Oil Plc, a company rebranded to Ardova Plc by the new owner, Mr Abdulwasiu Sowami.

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Economy

Multiverse Stocks Rise 30.85% in One Week

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Multiverse Mining and Exploration

By Dipo Olowookere

Investors renewed their interests in the shares of Multiverse Mining and Exploration Plc last week, pushing the price higher by 30.85 per cent to N3.69.

Another stock that attracted attention in the week was the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Group Plc, as investors pushed aside the recent corporate governance issues raised in the media and keyed into the company’s dividend policy.

At the close of the five-day trading week, its price rose by 17.65 per cent to N20.00. Jaiz Bank grew last week by 15.38 per cent, Cadbury Nigeria expanded by 14.77 per cent, while Eterna improved by 9.91 per cent to N6.32.

However, the shares of Neimeth fell by 10.26 per cent to N1.40, Nestle lost 10.00 per cent to N1,215.00, Africa Prudential dropped 9.91 per cent to N5.00, Royal Exchange depreciated by 9.80 per cent to 92 Kobo and Fidson went down by 9.05 per cent to N9.05.

At the close of transactions for the week, 25 equities appreciated, higher than 17 equities in the previous week; 33 equities depreciated, lower than 42 equities in the previous week; while 98 equities remained unchanged, higher than 97 equities recorded in the previous week.

Business Post reports that the All-Share Index (ASI) depreciated by 0.01 per cent to close the week at 49,024.16 points, while the market capitalisation appreciated by 0.03 per cent to close at N26.451 trillion.

Similarly, all other indices finished lower except for NGX Main-Board, NGX 30, oil/gas and industrial goods indices, which appreciated by 0.25 per cent, 0.04 per cent, 0.20 per cent, and 3.01 per cent, apiece as the ASeM, growth and sovereign bond indices closed flat.

During the week, a total of 1.005 billion shares worth N10.406 billion were traded in 17,844 deals as against the 562.856 million shares valued at N9.438 billion transacted in 16,013 deals a week earlier.

A total of 757.289 million financial shares valued at N6.947 billion were traded in 9,483 deals in the week, accounting for 75.38 per cent and 66.76 per cent of the trading volume and value.

A total of 75.118 million units of conglomerate stocks worth N82.955 million exchanged hands in 494 deals, as 50.186 million units of consumer goods shares worth N1.457 billion were transacted in 2,798 deals.

Jaiz Bank, GTCO and Zenith Bank were the most active stocks as they traded 460.216 million units worth N4.963 billion in 4,281 deals, contributing 45.81 per cent and 47.69 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Crude Oil Exports Jump 88.6% to N11.53trn in Six Months

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crude oil exports

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria earned N11.53 trillion from the export of crude oil in the first half of 2022, according to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), jumping by 88.6 per cent compared with N6.11 trillion recorded in the first half of 2021.

In its Foreign Trade Statistics for the Second Quarter of 2022, the NBS noted that crude oil export in the first six months of 2022 accounted for 79.47 per cent of total exports in the period under review, while it also accounted for 44.62 per cent of total trades in the same period.

Giving a breakdown of crude oil exports in the first half of 2022, the NBS stated that in the first quarter of the year, crude oil valued at N5.621 trillion was exported by the country, while in the second quarter, N5.908 trillion was exported.

In comparison, in the first quarter of 2021, the NBS said Nigeria earned N2.043 trillion from crude oil exports, while in the second quarter, N4.072 trillion crude oil export sales were recorded. Furthermore, in the third and fourth quarters of 2021, Nigeria recorded crude oil export of N4.026 trillion and N4.269 trillion, respectively.

The country’s statistical authority put Nigeria’s total trade in the first half of 2022 at N25.843 trillion, comprising N13.001 trillion and N12.841 trillion in the first and second quarter of the year, respectively; while total export trade for the first half of 2022 stood at N14.507 trillion, with N7.1 trillion and N7.407 trillion export recorded in the first and second quarter respectively.

Specifically, the NBS reported that in the second quarter of 2022, crude oil ranked as the most exported commodity in the country, with 79.77 per cent of the country’s total export.

Furthermore, the statistics agency stated that the most of Nigeria’s crude oil export in the second quarter of 2022 was to European countries, with the continent purchasing Nigeria’s crude oil valued at N2.737 trillion; followed by Asia, with N1.916 trillion; while countries in America purchased N861.937 billion.

Africa accounted for N355.853 billion of Nigeria’s crude oil export, while N36.459 billion worth of Nigeria’s crude oil was exported to Oceania.

India emerged as the highest buyer of Nigeria’s crude oil, with N1.009 trillion worth of the commodity shipped to the country in the second quarter; followed by the Netherlands, with the purchase of N886.314 billion worth of Nigeria’s crude oil; while N854.859 billion crude oil was exported to Spain.

Other major crude oil export destinations were Indonesia, N614.954 billion; United States, N488.356 billion; Italy, N253.817 billion; Sweden, N232.152 billion; Canada, N226.704 billion; France, N192.273 billion and Ivory Coast, N191.425 billion.

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