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Economy

Business Activities in Nigeria Worsen as Cash Crisis Sinks PMI to 42.3

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Business activities in the private sector in Nigeria further suffered from the cash crisis in the country as the Stanbic IBTC Bank Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) showed a reading of 42.3 points in March 2023, in contrast to the 44.7 points reported in February 2023.

Readings above 50.0 signal an improvement in business conditions in the previous month, while readings below 50.0 show deterioration.

The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) came up with a Naira redesign policy aimed at taming inflation, kidnapping, counterfeiting and vote-buying.

However, it battered the economy as many businesses suffered from the resultant cash crunch, forcing some state governments to convince the supreme court to reverse the policy.

In its latest report, Stanbic IBTC Bank said last month, Naira scarcity had a severe impact on business conditions as output and new orders fell more quickly than in February, while staffing levels and purchasing activity were scaled back again.

It further said while input costs and output prices continued to rise sharply, rates of inflation softened, with output prices increasing at the softest pace in almost three years, and suppliers’ delivery times shortening after having lengthened in February.

It was observed that the decline recorded in March was the most pronounced since the survey began in January 2014, apart from at the time of the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

As was the case in February, there were widespread reports from companies that customers were unable to commit to spending given cash shortages. This led to a substantial decline in new business, with the pace of contraction more pronounced than in the previous survey period. The same picture was seen with regard to business activity, which decreased at a rate only exceeded in April and May 2020.

All four broad sectors posted reductions in activity at the end of the first quarter. Companies reduced staffing levels slightly for the second month running, in part reflecting lower workloads but also due to difficulties paying wages. Lower workforce numbers limited the pace of staff cost inflation, which eased to a marginal rate that was the slowest since January 2021.

Stanbic IBTC Bank Purchasing activity was also scaled back, falling at the fastest pace since May 2020. In turn, inventory holdings also decreased. Inflationary pressures eased in March.

The pace at which purchase costs increased was the slowest in just under three years but remained sharp and faster than any seen prior to the pandemic.

The same picture was seen with regard to output prices, which rose at the slowest pace since April 2020. Suppliers’ delivery times shortened in March, following the first lengthening in more than five years during February.

Suppliers’ delivery times shortened in March, following the first lengthening in more than five years during February. Quicker deliveries reportedly reflected competition among suppliers.

The cash crisis acted to dampen confidence in the private sector in March, with sentiment the second lowest in the series’ history. Where output was predicted to rise, panellists linked this to investment intentions and business expansion plans.

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Economy

Brent Hits $112 as Iran Escalates Attacks on Middle East Energy Facilities

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Brent crude moved higher by 4.27 per cent to $112.00 per barrel on Wednesday as Iran attacked several energy facilities across the Middle East, creating a major escalation in its war with the United States and Israel.

Also, the US West Texas Intermediate grew by 2.73 per cent to $98.95, as the Middle East conflict continues to escalate, and energy infrastructure is targeted across the Gulf, as Iran hit energy infrastructure across the Middle East in retaliation for earlier strikes on its South Pars gas field.

Qatar confirmed that Iranian missile strikes had caused “extensive damage” around the Ras Laffan industrial complex, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility and a cornerstone of global gas supply.

Meanwhile, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) suspended operations at its Habshan gas facility after missile-related incidents, with debris from intercepted projectiles reportedly affecting additional energy infrastructure, including the Bab oil field.

Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Iraq, and Bahrain continue to be targeted by Iran, with Saudi Arabia reporting that air defences had destroyed a total of 19 drones in the Eastern Province and four missiles launched toward Riyadh.

Earlier on Wednesday, Iran issued an evacuation warning for ⁠several energy facilities across Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, saying they would be targeted by strikes “in the coming hours.”

Shipping also remained under threat, with the UK’s maritime security agency reporting that a vessel east of the Strait of Hormuz caught fire after being struck by an “unknown projectile.”

The war has halted shipments via the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20 per cent of global oil and LNG supply. Total oil output cuts in the Middle East are estimated at 7 million to 10 million barrels per day, or 7 per cent to ​10 per cent of global demand.

To ease worries, the administration of US President Donald Trump on Wednesday announced a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act shipping law, temporarily allowing foreign-flagged vessels to ​move fuel, fertiliser, and other goods between US ports.

It is also working on measures that could help slow the surge in fuel prices in the US, but are unlikely to have much of an effect on global energy prices.

In Iraq, ​the North Oil Company said crude exports from ​Iraq’s Kirkuk fields to Turkey’s Ceyhan port ⁠have resumed via pipeline, after Iraq and the Kurdistan Regional Government agreed to restart flows. The company said exports would resume with an initial capacity of 250,000 barrels per day.

The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude ​inventories rose by 6.2 million barrels to 449.3 million barrels in the week ended March 13.

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LCCI Highlights Risks in Nigeria’s Rising Monthly Inflation

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has raised concerns over the month-on-month rise in inflation despite a moderate easing in headline inflation.

Earlier this week, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed Nigeria’s consumer prices moderating slightly to 15.06 per cent year-on-year in February 2026 from 15.10 per cent in January. However, a sharp month-on-month rebound to 2.01 per cent signalled renewed momentum.

LCCI Director-General, Mrs Chinyere Almona, called for deliberate action amid risks such as exchange-rate volatility and food insecurity.

She viewed the drop from 26.27 per cent in February 2025 as cautious optimism but stressed vigilance.

“Addressing high inflation has been crucial, as it has greatly impacted purchasing power, production costs, and consumer demand,” Mrs Almona said.

She flagged imported input costs and domestic issues, such as agricultural insecurity, noting that, “With the potential for exchange-rate volatility… There is a risk of increased costs for imported raw materials, machinery, pharmaceuticals, and food items.”

Mrs Almona advocated prioritising FX stability through non-oil exports, food security through productivity and infrastructure, and energy reforms to ensure reliable power.

“Advancing reforms in the power and energy sectors is crucial for reducing production costs,” she added, alongside transport and port efficiencies.

“Sustaining this trend will require consistent macroeconomic management, structural reforms, and policies aimed at enhancing domestic productivity,” she added.

She noted that with the potential for exchange-rate volatility, there is a risk of increased costs for imported raw materials, machinery, pharmaceuticals, and food items.

“Nigeria has the opportunity to mitigate these external pressures by investing in local refining capacities and ensuring that crude supply meets domestic needs.”

“This could subsequently affect production and consumer prices. Other concerns, such as insecurity in agricultural regions, climate-related disruptions, and high transportation costs, could also challenge food supply and price stability.”

She pointed out that it is vital for the government to undertake deliberate policy actions to maintain the current easing of inflation, saying that “prioritising exchange-rate stability by enhancing foreign exchange liquidity and promoting non-oil export earnings is key.

She emphasised the importance of enhancing efficiency in transportation and trade infrastructure, including port operations, cargo evacuation systems, and digital trade processes, saying that such improvements can notably reduce logistics costs that contribute to consumer prices.

“While the marginal decline in inflation is a positive development, sustaining this trend will require consistent macroeconomic management, structural reforms, and policies aimed at enhancing domestic productivity.

“We must act swiftly to address concerns that may jeopardise the progress made in controlling inflation. Given that month-on-month rates already suggest ongoing inflationary challenges, supply-side interventions are likely to offer more sustainable solutions than imposing price controls on manufacturers and investors,” the LCCI DG explained.

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Economy

Association Clarifies Reasons for Upward Review of Shipping Tariffs

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Shipping Association of Nigeria (SAN) has clarified that a recent upward review of tariffs by shipping line agencies operating in the country was to reflect prevailing economic realities.

SAN clarified in a response dated March 16, 2026, to a letter from the National Association of Government Approved Freight Forwarders (NAGAFF) Trade Advocacy Committee, which had opposed the tariff adjustment approved by the Nigerian Shippers’ Council (NSC), the port economic regulator.

In the letter signed by SAN chairman, Mrs Boma Alabi, the association acknowledged the concerns raised by freight forwarders. It maintained that some of the claims made by NAGAFF did not accurately represent the regulatory process that preceded the approval or the operational realities of international shipping operations in Nigeria.

Mrs Alabi stressed that the tariff adjustment was neither implemented unilaterally by shipping lines nor granted arbitrarily by the regulator.

According to her, the council conducted an extensive review before approving, including detailed cost analysis submitted by shipping line agencies, an assessment of prevailing economic conditions such as inflation and foreign exchange volatility, as well as stakeholder consultations carried out over an extended period.

She added that the review process lasted nearly two years and involved several rounds of regulatory scrutiny before the final approval was granted.

“It is therefore inaccurate to suggest that the approval was granted without due consideration of the statutory regulatory framework,” Mrs Alabi said.

She explained that the adjustment merely represents a partial cost recovery measure, considering the sharp rise in operational costs across the maritime sector in recent years.

Mrs Alabi also clarified that the approval was not granted across the board to all shipping lines, noting that it did not amount to a blanket increase for every operator.

According to her, the adjustment approved by the shippers’ council is modest and significantly lower than Nigeria’s cumulative inflation rate within the same period.

“In practical terms, the adjustment does not represent a real increase in economic terms but rather a limited adjustment intended to partially offset the impact of rising operational costs,” she said.

She listed some of the cost drivers to include increasing port and terminal charges, administrative and regulatory compliance costs, exchange rate fluctuations, and logistics and operational overheads.

Mrs Alabi further noted that the tariff review reflects broader developments across the maritime and logistics sector, where several service providers have adjusted their charges in response to economic pressures.

She pointed out that truck operators, freight forwarders, clearing agents, terminal operators and other logistics service providers have all increased their rates in recent years.

“In this context, it would be unrealistic and inequitable to expect shipping line agencies alone to maintain static rates despite operating under the same economic pressures,” she said.

The SAN chairman also dismissed insinuations that shipping lines exercise collective market dominance, stressing that the global liner shipping industry is highly competitive.

According to her, shipping companies compete independently in freight pricing and service delivery while constantly striving to improve operational efficiency and attract cargo volumes through better service offerings.

She added that several operational challenges cited by NAGAFF – such as port congestion, container return logistics, documentation bottlenecks and operational delays- are systemic issues within the entire port ecosystem and cannot be attributed solely to shipping line agencies.

Mrs Alabi explained that port operations involve multiple stakeholders, including port authorities, terminal operators, customs and regulatory agencies, freight forwarders, and trucking and logistics providers.

She therefore called for collaborative efforts among stakeholders to address the challenges rather than placing responsibility on a single segment of the logistics chain.

On allegations of regulatory infractions, the SAN chairman said the claims referencing laws such as the ICPC Act and the FCCPC Act appear speculative and are not backed by formal regulatory findings.

She maintained that shipping line agencies operating in Nigeria remain under the oversight of several government institutions and continue to comply with all applicable statutory and regulatory requirements.

Mrs Alabi reiterated that the tariff adjustment approved by the Nigerian Shippers’ Council followed a lengthy regulatory process that carefully reviewed cost structures, economic conditions and stakeholder input.

According to her, the decision was aimed at ensuring the sustainability of maritime services while maintaining fairness within the port economic framework.

She added that since the approval was granted by the NCS in its regulatory capacity, the agency is best positioned to address any further concerns regarding the tariff review.

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