Economy
Business Activity Falls First Time in Eight Months
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The Stanbic IBTC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for July 2024 has indicated that the Nigerian private sector moved back into contraction territory.
A statement from the lender disclosed that the index of the performance of the business environment closed at 49.2 points compared with 50.1 points recorded in June as steep price pressures hit demand and resulted in renewed reductions in both business activity and new orders.
Business Post reports that readings above 50.0 signal an improvement in business conditions in the previous month, while readings below 50.0 show deterioration, which occurred in the period under review, the first in eight months.
Input costs and selling prices continued to rise rapidly, although there were some signs that efforts to secure sales resulted in a softer pace of output price inflation.
The renewed worsening in the health of the private sector mainly reflected the first reductions in output and new orders since November last year. In both cases, rates of decline were only modest.
Anecdotal evidence continued to highlight the negative impact of sharp price increases on customer demand, with clients often unwilling or unable to commit to new projects.
Three of the four broad sectors covered by the report saw business activity decrease in July, the exception being manufacturing where production increased.
Selling prices continued to increase sharply at the start of the third quarter as companies passed higher input costs through to their customers. This was despite the rate of inflation easing to the slowest since May 2023 amid reports from some panellists that they had lowered charges as part of efforts to secure sales.
The Head of Equity Research for West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Mr Muyiwa Oni, said, “The Stanbic IBTC headline PMI declined for the second consecutive month to 49.2 points in July – its lowest level since November 2023.
“Anecdotal evidence continued to highlight the negative impact of sharp price increases on customer demand, resulting in renewed reductions in both business activity and new orders.
“Notably, output and new orders printed below 50.0 thereby ending a seven-month sequence of expansion and reinforcing a renewed worsening in the health of the private sector.
“Even as output and new orders declined, companies continued to expand their staffing levels during the month. Moreover, the rate of job creation picked up to the strongest in 2024 so far.
“Meanwhile, overall input prices continued to rise sharply in July with the rate of inflation quickening for the third month running and were the fastest since March.
“Although output prices continued to rise rapidly during July, the pace of inflation eased from that seen in June and was the slowest since May 2023. Where selling prices increased, panellists linked this to higher input costs.
“On the other hand, some companies lowered charges as part of efforts to attract customers. That said, companies remained confident overall that output will increase over the next 12 months, reflecting business expansion plans including efforts to start exporting and open more branches.
“On a year-on-year basis, headline inflation may have peaked in June, with moderation expected in H2:24 as the year-on-year effects of PMS subsidy removal (which induced higher fuel prices) and significant currency depreciation (which accompanied the FX unification) fade.
“This, in addition to the commencement of the primary harvest season in September, is likely to provide some respite for consumers, thereby likely supporting a slight improvement in domestic economic activities in H2:24.”
Further increases in purchase prices and staff costs were registered in July. Purchase price inflation quickened to a four-month high, often due to currency weakness but also higher raw material costs.
Meanwhile, the rise in employee expenses was broadly in line with that seen in June as companies continued to help workers with higher living costs, particularly those related to transportation.
The renewed decline in output was accompanied by a reduction in business confidence, with firms at their least optimistic since the survey began. That said, business expansion plans meant that firms still expected output to rise over the coming year.
Companies scaled back purchasing activity, with reduced demand for inputs and prompt payments helping lead to a further shortening of suppliers’ delivery times.
Meanwhile, stocks of inputs increased. Employment also continued to rise slightly, with the pace of job creation quickening to the fastest in 2024 so far. Higher staffing levels and a drop in new orders meant that backlogs of work were cleared for the second consecutive month.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Federal Executive Council (FEC) has signed off on a medium-term fiscal plan that projects spending of around N54.5 trillion in 2026, as it approved the 2026-2028 medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF), outlining Nigeria’s economic outlook, revenue targets, and spending priorities for the next three years.
The Minister of Budget and National Planning, Mr Atiku Bagudu, said oil price was pegged at $64 per barrel, while the exchange rate assumption for the budget year is N1,512/$1.
He said while the council set an oil production benchmark of 2.06 million barrels per day for 2026, the fiscal planning is based on a cautious 1.8 million barrels per day.
Mr Bagudu stated the exchange rate projection reflects the fact that 2026 precedes a general election year, adding that all the assumptions were drawn from detailed macroeconomic and fiscal analyses by the budget office and its partner agencies.
According to the minister, inflation is projected to average 18 per cent in 2026.
Mr Bagudu said based on the assumptions, the total revenue accruing to the federation in 2026 was estimated at N50.74 trillion, to be shared among the three tiers of government.
“From this projection, the federal government is expected to receive N22.6 trillion, states N16.3 trillion, and local governments N11.85 trillion,” he said.
“When revenues from all federal sources are consolidated, including N4.98 trillion from government-owned enterprises, total Federal Government revenue for 2026 is projected at N34.33 trillion —representing a N6.55 trillion or 16 per cent decline compared to the 2025 budget estimate.”
The minister said statutory transfers are expected to amount to roughly N3 trillion, while debt servicing was projected at N10.91 trillion.
He said non-debt recurrent spending — covering personnel costs and overheads — was put at N15.27 trillion, while the fiscal deficit for 2026 is estimated at N20.1 trillion, representing 3.61 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).
The MTEF also projected that nominal GDP will reach over N690 trillion in 2026 and climb to N890.6 trillion by 2028, with the GDP growth rate projected at 4.6 per cent in 2026.
The non-oil GDP is also expected to grow from N550.7 trillion in 2026 to N871.3 trillion in 2028, while oil GDP is estimated to rise from N557.4 trillion to N893.5 trillion over the same period.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
There seems to be a deliberate effort to starve local crude oil refiners from getting supply, foremost African businessman, Mr Aliko Dangote, has said.
He said loopholes in the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) are being exploited to ensure private refiners like the Dangote Petroleum Refinery import the commodity, making consumers pay more for petroleum products.
Mr Dangote insisted that Nigeria has no justification for importing crude or refined petroleum products if existing laws were properly enforced.
Speaking during a visit by the South South Development Commission (SSDC) to the Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Fertiliser Complex in Lagos, he noted that the PIA already establishes a framework that prioritises domestic crude supply.
According to him, several oil companies routinely divert Nigerian crude to their trading subsidiaries abroad, particularly in Switzerland, forcing domestic refineries to buy from these offshore entities at a premium of four to five dollars per barrel.
“The crude is available. It is not a matter of shortage. But the companies move everything to their trading arms, and we are forced to buy at a premium. Meanwhile, we do not receive any premium for our own products,” he said.
He disclosed that he has formally written to the Federal Government, urging it to charge royalties and taxes based on the actual price paid for crude, to prevent revenue losses and to discourage practices that disadvantage local refiners.
Mr Dangote said the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) remains the primary supplier honouring domestic supply obligations, providing five to six cargoes monthly. However, the refinery requires as many as twenty cargoes per month from January to operate optimally.
Describing the situation as “unsustainable for a country intent on genuine industrial growth,” Mr Dangote argued that Africa’s economic future depends on value addition rather than perpetual raw material export.
“It is shameful that while we exported one point five million tonnes of gasoline in June and July, imported products were flooding the country. That is dumping,” he said.
On report by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA), that the refinery supplied only 17.08 million litres of the 56.74 million litres consumed in October 2025, Mr Dangote said that the refinery exports its products if regulators continue to permit dumping by marketers.
Addressing Nigeria’s ambition to achieve a $1 trillion economy, Mr Dangote said the target is attainable through disciplined policy execution, improved power generation and a revival of the steel sector.
“You cannot build a great nation without power and steel. Every bolt and nut used here was imported. That should not be the case. Nigeria should be supplying steel to smaller African countries,” he said.
He also underscored opportunities for partnership with the SSDC in agriculture, particularly in soil testing and customised fertiliser formulation, noting that misuse of fertiliser remains a major reason Nigerian farmers experience limited productivity gains.
“We are setting up advanced soil testing laboratories. From next year, we want to work with the SSDC to empower farmers by providing accurate soil assessments and customised fertiliser blends,” Mr Dangote said.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
A $60 million Series B equity round has been completed by a financial technology (fontech) company, Flex, to scale its all-in-one business and personal finance platform for high-net-worth middle-market business owners.
The funding round was led by Portage, with participation from CrossLink Capital, Spice Expedition, Titanium Ventures, Wellington, Companyon Ventures, Florida Funders, FirstLook Partners, Tusk Venture Partners and others, bringing its total equity funding to $105 million.
The company is building Artificial Intelligence (AI) agents across every product pillar to streamline both its internal operations and customer experiences—like credit underwriting agents to deeply understand every business, expense agents, payment workflows, cash management agents, and back-office ERP agents into a single “motherboard” for business owners.
Flex’s vision is to provide every business owner a team of high quality finance agents to run their backoffice like an enterprise. This AI-driven architecture not only improves customer experience but also drives a structurally lower cost base for Flex, enabling it to operate with a lean headcount.
In turn, Flex delivers AI-powered Owner Insights, transforming the data generated from customer activity into a beautiful, intuitive experience that positions Flex as their “AI CFO.”
“Our mission is to build the private bank ambitious business owners have always deserved.
“Middle-market business owners employ 40% of Americans, but the financial system has never been designed around their complex needs.
“Flex is the first platform that supports every step of their financial lives, from the moment they earn revenue to the moment they spend it personally.
“Unlike many of our FinTech peers who focus on saving large enterprises money, we focus on helping ambitious owners make more money,” the chief executive of Flex, Mr Zaid Rahman, said.
A Partner at Portage, Jake Bodanis, said, “Flex is building a category-defining financial institution. The company has proven that middle-market business owners are both massively underserved and extremely valuable customers when given the right financial infrastructure. Flex’s hypergrowth and best in class capital efficiency speaks to how powerful this model is.”
Flex was created to give these high net worth owners a single place to run both their business and personal finances.
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