Economy
Business Activity Falls First Time in Eight Months
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The Stanbic IBTC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for July 2024 has indicated that the Nigerian private sector moved back into contraction territory.
A statement from the lender disclosed that the index of the performance of the business environment closed at 49.2 points compared with 50.1 points recorded in June as steep price pressures hit demand and resulted in renewed reductions in both business activity and new orders.
Business Post reports that readings above 50.0 signal an improvement in business conditions in the previous month, while readings below 50.0 show deterioration, which occurred in the period under review, the first in eight months.
Input costs and selling prices continued to rise rapidly, although there were some signs that efforts to secure sales resulted in a softer pace of output price inflation.
The renewed worsening in the health of the private sector mainly reflected the first reductions in output and new orders since November last year. In both cases, rates of decline were only modest.
Anecdotal evidence continued to highlight the negative impact of sharp price increases on customer demand, with clients often unwilling or unable to commit to new projects.
Three of the four broad sectors covered by the report saw business activity decrease in July, the exception being manufacturing where production increased.
Selling prices continued to increase sharply at the start of the third quarter as companies passed higher input costs through to their customers. This was despite the rate of inflation easing to the slowest since May 2023 amid reports from some panellists that they had lowered charges as part of efforts to secure sales.
The Head of Equity Research for West Africa at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Mr Muyiwa Oni, said, “The Stanbic IBTC headline PMI declined for the second consecutive month to 49.2 points in July – its lowest level since November 2023.
“Anecdotal evidence continued to highlight the negative impact of sharp price increases on customer demand, resulting in renewed reductions in both business activity and new orders.
“Notably, output and new orders printed below 50.0 thereby ending a seven-month sequence of expansion and reinforcing a renewed worsening in the health of the private sector.
“Even as output and new orders declined, companies continued to expand their staffing levels during the month. Moreover, the rate of job creation picked up to the strongest in 2024 so far.
“Meanwhile, overall input prices continued to rise sharply in July with the rate of inflation quickening for the third month running and were the fastest since March.
“Although output prices continued to rise rapidly during July, the pace of inflation eased from that seen in June and was the slowest since May 2023. Where selling prices increased, panellists linked this to higher input costs.
“On the other hand, some companies lowered charges as part of efforts to attract customers. That said, companies remained confident overall that output will increase over the next 12 months, reflecting business expansion plans including efforts to start exporting and open more branches.
“On a year-on-year basis, headline inflation may have peaked in June, with moderation expected in H2:24 as the year-on-year effects of PMS subsidy removal (which induced higher fuel prices) and significant currency depreciation (which accompanied the FX unification) fade.
“This, in addition to the commencement of the primary harvest season in September, is likely to provide some respite for consumers, thereby likely supporting a slight improvement in domestic economic activities in H2:24.”
Further increases in purchase prices and staff costs were registered in July. Purchase price inflation quickened to a four-month high, often due to currency weakness but also higher raw material costs.
Meanwhile, the rise in employee expenses was broadly in line with that seen in June as companies continued to help workers with higher living costs, particularly those related to transportation.
The renewed decline in output was accompanied by a reduction in business confidence, with firms at their least optimistic since the survey began. That said, business expansion plans meant that firms still expected output to rise over the coming year.
Companies scaled back purchasing activity, with reduced demand for inputs and prompt payments helping lead to a further shortening of suppliers’ delivery times.
Meanwhile, stocks of inputs increased. Employment also continued to rise slightly, with the pace of job creation quickening to the fastest in 2024 so far. Higher staffing levels and a drop in new orders meant that backlogs of work were cleared for the second consecutive month.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange extended its stay in the south for the fourth consecutive session after it shed 1.18 per cent on Friday, March 13.
The unlisted securities market recorded a loss despite closing without a price decliner, and ending with two price gainers led by Geo Fluids Plc, which gained 1o Kobo to sell at N3.10 per share compared with the previous day’s N3.00 per share. Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc appreciated during the session by 2 Kobo to trade at 54 Kobo per unit versus Thursday’s closing price of 52 Kobo per unit.
When the market closed for the day, the market capitalisation lost N29.83 billion to close at N2.489 trillion compared with the N2.519 trillion it finished a day earlier, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) crashed by 49.84 points to 4,160.46 points from 4,210.31 points.
Market activity improved yesterday, as the volume of transactions rose 179.5 per cent to 10.4 million units from 3.7 million units, but the value of trades declined by 68.4 per cent to N29.9 million from N95.0 million, while the number of deals weakened by 11.5 per cent to 46 deals from 52 deals.
Central Securities Clearing Systems (CSCS) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 38.4 million units worth N2.4 billion, Okitipupa Plc followed with 6.4 million units traded at N1.1 billion, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc transacted 6.3 million units for N584.3 million.
Resourcery Plc ended the trading session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 1.1 billion units valued at N415.6 million, trailed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 130.8 million units valued at N504.5 million, and CSCS Plc with 38.4 million units worth N2.4 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira continued to claw back some gains against the Dollar in the different segments of the foreign exchange (FX) market, as its value was strengthened on Friday.
In the black market, it gained N10 against the United States Dollar yesterday to close at N1,400/$1 compared with the preceding day’s rate of N1,410/$1, and at the GTBank forex counter, it chalked up N6 to close at N1,385/$1, in contrast to the N1,391/$1 it was traded a day earlier.
Similarly, in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX), it appreciated against the greenback during the session by N5.28 or 0.38 per cent to quote at N1,366.23/$1 versus Thursday’s closing price of N1,371.51/$1.
It also improved its value against the Pound Sterling in the official market on Friday by N21.81 to settle at N1,812.99/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,834.80/£1, and gained N13.86 against the Euro to sell at N1,568.03/€1 versus N1,581.89/€1.
Pressure eased further on the FX market as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) continued interventionist operations this week, selling Dollars to banks to boost liquidity after a $500 million boost last week.
This was complemented by inflows from foreign investors, exporters and non-bank corporates, among others, while Nigeria’s gross external reserves remained above $50 billion, the highest since 2009.
The Governor of the apex bank, Mr Yemi Cardoso, also eased fears of a Naira devaluation, saying the country’s financial system has been strengthened by reforms.
Regardless, external pressure looms as the US Dollar strengthened globally due to its war with Iran, now ongoing for three weeks.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was largely down as traders and investors continue to align with current realities.
The market is adapting to the conflict in real time. Early in the war, every headline produced an outsized reaction because nobody could price the tail risk. Now, traders have a framework where strikes happen, oil spikes and bitcoin dips only to recover again.
Cardano (ADA) depreciated by 3.8 per cent to $0.2623, Dogecoin (DOGE) lost 1.7 per cent to finish at $0.0948, Ripple (XRP) slumped 1.5 per cent to $1.39, Solana (SOL) dropped 1.4 per cent to sell for $87.33, Binance Coin (BNB) went down by 1.3 per cent to $653.58, Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 1.1 per cent to $70,670.63, and Ethereum (ETH) decreased by 0.9 per cent to $2,078.78.
However, TRON (TRX) appreciated by 1.7 per cent to $0.2941, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The price of the major crude oil grade, Brent crude oil, closed above $100 on Friday for the second consecutive session, as the Iran war heads toward its third week, with oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz still effectively at a standstill.
It gained 2.67 per cent or $2.68 during the trading day to close at $103.14 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil grade appreciated by 3.11 per cent or $2.98 to settle at $98.71 per barrel.
Brent futures were up about 10 per cent for the week following the 27 per cent rise seen last week, which marked the biggest weekly gain in oil prices since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. WTI futures, which saw their best week since 1983 last week, ended the week more than 8 per cent higher.
US President Donald Trump said American forces launched a major bombing raid on Iran’s strategic Kharg Island, targeting military facilities on the key Persian Gulf outpost while warning Iran that its vital oil infrastructure could be destroyed if shipping in the Strait of Hormuz is disrupted.
The terminal accounts for roughly 90 per cent of Iranian crude shipments, loading millions of barrels per day onto tankers bound largely for Asian markets.
The US and Israel’s strikes in the conflict have largely targeted Iranian military and nuclear infrastructure. Oil facilities elsewhere in Iran have been hit, but Kharg’s massive storage tanks, jetties, and pipelines had remained untouched until the latest strike.
Iran’s new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, vowed to keep fighting in a message delivered via state television.
There have been a number of attacks on foreign ships in or near the Strait, feeding into concerns that a prolonged war could translate to a global economic shock.
Prices are rising despite the US and its allies rolling out some measures to keep a lid on energy costs.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has agreed to release 400 million stockpiled barrels, the largest such action in history.
The US has issued a 30-day waiver for India to purchase sanctioned oil from Russia. President Donald Trump is considering loosening rules under the Jones Act that require American ships to transport goods between domestic ports, including oil and gas, in an effort to lower costs.
Traders are continuing to monitor developments in the Middle East.
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