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CardinalStone Sees Naira at N1,350/$1, Inflation at 13.9% in 2026

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira could strengthen to between N1,350 and N1,450 per dollar in 2026, driven by improving macroeconomic fundamentals and a more supportive foreign exchange environment.

This is according to CardinalStone Partners’ 2026 economic outlook report, Indicators Align for Sustained Macro Gains, published this week.

The report outlines expectations of currency appreciation, easing inflationary pressures, and softer domestic energy prices, even as risks from global oil markets and domestic insecurity persist.

CardinalStone expects the Naira to appreciate in 2026 as policy reforms, improved FX liquidity, and moderating inflation combine to stabilise the currency.

“We expect Naira to appreciate to a range of N1,350.00/$ – N1,450.00/$ in 2026, supported by improving fundamentals,” the report stated.

Despite projecting a weaker global crude oil market due to oversupply and subdued demand, the firm believes Nigeria’s foreign exchange outlook could remain resilient.

“Elsewhere, due to oversupply and weaker demand, crude oil prices are likely to be lower,” the report read.

Lower oil prices typically pressure Nigeria’s FX earnings, but CardinalStone argues that structural improvements in the FX market could help cushion the impact.

The report also projects that declining crude oil prices, combined with a stronger naira, could lead to lower domestic energy costs in 2026. Prices of Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) and Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) are expected to ease further.

“The weak oil price, coupled with an improving FX outlook, should further drive down the domestic prices of AGO and PMS,” the report noted.

In addition, CardinalStone highlighted increased competition in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector, particularly between local refineries and fuel importers, as a positive development for energy price stability.

“More so, competition in the domestic market between local refineries and importers bodes well for the local energy price outlook,” the report said.

On inflation, CardinalStone projects a gradual moderation in 2026, although it flagged rising insecurity, especially in food-producing regions, as a key downside risk.

“Nonetheless, we note the increased traction of insecurity as a risk factor, especially in food-producing regions, which could limit food supply,” the firm warned.

Taking these factors into account, alongside expected pre-election year spending, CardinalStone forecasts that headline inflation will ease to an average of 15.5 per cent in 2026, before closing the year at 13.9 per cent.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Inflation Outlook Improves as US-Iran Tensions Ease

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Easing tensions between the US and Iran in the Middle East is expected to offer more respite to the Nigerian economy in the coming months.

Analysts at Comercio Partners noted in a report that there is an increased likelihood of a gradual moderation in inflation from July into the third quarter of 2026.

The analysts opined that the near-term outlook for inflation “has become less tilted to the upside” following the peace deal reached by the warring parties in the Middle East conflict and the sharp decline in global oil prices.

The report read in part: “May inflation data showed that price pressures remain sticky, but the near-term outlook has become less tilted to the upside following the peace deal and the sharp decline in global oil prices.

“Headline inflation rose to 15.93 per cent year-on-year from 15.69 per cent in April, while food inflation climbed to 16.96 per cent and core inflation increased to 16.82 per cent, suggesting that both food and underlying non-food price pressures remain elevated.

“However, the easing in crude oil prices below $85/bbl reduces the risk of a renewed energy-led inflation shock. This is important for Nigeria, where fuel, diesel, transport, logistics, and food distribution costs are key channels through which global energy prices feed into domestic inflation.

“If lower oil prices are sustained and domestic fuel prices remain stable or decline, pressure on transport and production costs should gradually ease.”

It noted that in June, inflation may remain sticky because the pass-through of lower oil prices to consumer prices is unlikely to be immediate.

It added that food prices remain elevated, and core inflation picked up month-on-month in May, indicating that underlying price pressures have not fully faded. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), the inflation rate on a month-on-month basis was 1.75 per cent, which was 0.39 per cent lower than the rate recorded in April 2026 (2.13 per cent).

“However, the balance of risks has shifted. The likelihood of another sharp energy-driven acceleration has reduced, while the probability of gradual moderation from July into Q3 has improved.”

The analysts said in the report that while the latest CPI data, “still supports a cautious tone across rates and fixed income, as annual headline, food, and core inflation all moved higher in May,” the decline in oil prices gives the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) “more room to maintain a wait-and-see stance rather than respond aggressively to external energy-price risks, provided domestic prices begin to reflect the easing in global crude markets.”

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Economy

All On Invests $1m in Eja-Ice Nigeria Limited to Strengthen Cold-Chain Infrastructure in Off-Grid Markets

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All One Eja-Ice Nigeria Limited

All On, an impact investing company focused on expanding access to renewable energy solutions in Nigeria, has announced a $1 million investment in Eja-Ice Nigeria Limited, a provider of solar-powered refrigeration and cold chain infrastructure.

The investment will support Eja-Ice’s manufacturing and operational scale-up as the company enters its next phase of growth. It is expected to enable the expansion of its cold-chain solutions and improve access to reliable cooling services for households, small businesses, and institutions operating in off-grid and weak-grid environments.

Access to dependable cold storage remains a significant constraint across Nigeria, particularly in coastal and rural communities where limited energy infrastructure contributes to post-harvest losses and income instability for small-scale agro-producers.

By delivering energy-efficient refrigeration systems, Eja-Ice is helping to address these challenges while supporting the preservation of perishable goods and strengthening local value chains.

“All On’s investment in Eja-Ice reflects our approach of supporting solutions that improve energy access while enhancing livelihoods, reducing costs, and enabling businesses to grow. Strengthening cold-chain infrastructure is an important step towards building more resilient local economies and expanding opportunities in underserved markets,” the chief executive of All On, Ms Caroline Eboumbou, commented on the investment.

Eja-Ice’s integrated cold-chain model allows for greater control over product design, operational efficiency, and service delivery, ensuring that its solutions are tailored to the needs of underserved markets. The company’s systems are already supporting micro enterprises, cooperatives, and community-level infrastructure, particularly in areas where reliable electricity remains limited.

Also commenting, the founder and chief executive of Eja-Ice Nigeria Limited, Mr Yusuf Bilesanmi, said, “This capital raise is a huge step forward in our vision to power homes and businesses with products designed, assembled, and optimised right here on the continent. It’s not just about access to electricity—it’s about dignity, productivity, and opportunity for the over 600 million people across sub-Saharan Africa who are still off-grid.”

Through this investment, All On continues to advance its mission of closing Nigeria’s energy access gap by supporting the renewable energy ecosystem and businesses that deliver sustainable, market-driven solutions.

All One Eja-Ice Nigeria Limited $1m

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Economy

First Holdco Lists N45bn Private Placement Shares on Stock Exchange

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

Shares of First Holdco Plc worth N45.0 billion issued through a private placement have been listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited.

A circular issued by the Head of Issuer Regulation Department of the NGX Regulation Limited, Mr Godstime Iwenekhai, disclosed that the equities were admitted for trading at the stock market on Monday.

According to the notice, the additional shares brought for listing to rank pari passu with existing shares of the organisation were 1,021,334,544 units.

These stocks were sold to one of the company’s major shareholders at a unit price of N44.06, amounting to N45.0 billion.

The total issued and fully paid-up shares of First Holdco, as a result of this listing, are now 45,475,027,677 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each.

“Trading licence holders are hereby notified that an additional 1,021,334,544 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each of First Holdco Plc were on Monday, June 22, 2026, listed on the daily official list of Nigerian Exchange Limited.

“The additional shares listed on NGX arose from the company’s private placement of 1,021,334,544 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at N44.06 per share.

“With the listing of the additional shares, the total issued and fully paid-up shares of First Holdco Plc have now increased to 45,475,027,677 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each from 44,453,693,133 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each,” the disclosure stated.

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