Economy
Naira May Remain Under Pressure in 2026—Yemi Kale
By Adedapo Adesanya
Top economist, Mr Yemi Kale, has projected that the Naira will remain under pressure against the United States Dollar in 2026, due to some external pressures.
Mr Kale, who is currently the Senior Economist at Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and formerly the Statistician-General of Nigeria, made the disclosure while delivering his keynote speech at the FirstBank Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026.
He outlines three scenario-based forecasts for the Dollar/Naira exchange rate, reflecting varying assumptions around oil prices, foreign-exchange (FX) inflows, inflation trends, and policy consistency.
Under the baseline scenario, the Naira is projected to trade around N1,350/$1–N1,450/$1 by the end of 2026.
According to the outlook, key assumptions include moderate improvement in Nigeria’s FX reserves and oil export revenues, relative stability in FX policy by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), gradual decline in inflation, and the absence of major external shocks, such as a sharp oil price collapse or a global Dollar surge.
It is projected that by June 2026, Naira will trade at approximately N1,313 to the Dollar, and around N1,340/$1 by December 2026.
The outlook notes that currency risks remain elevated, justifying a cautious baseline forecast rather than expectations of strong appreciation.
It noted that the Naira would remain under pressure but avoid a sharp collapse, pointing to moderate depreciation or a mild recovery from weaker levels.
In a more positive outlook, the Naira could strengthen to between N1,200 and N1,300 per Dollar by the end of 2026.
Key assumptions include strong oil price recovery or successful export diversification, effective FX reforms by the CBN, improved liquidity, and narrower gaps between official and parallel markets, and significant decline in inflation, restoring investor confidence.
He noted that this could be buoyed by increased FX inflows from oil, gas, remittances, and non-oil exports
A weaker global US Dollar, which would support emerging-market currencies.
According to the outlook, even at N1,200, the Naira would remain significantly weaker than historical benchmarks, underscoring persistent structural challenges.
In the worst-case scenario projects the Naira could weaken to N1,550–N1,650 or beyond by the end of 2026.
Key assumptions are weak oil prices or production disruptions reducing FX inflows, deepening FX liquidity crisis and forced currency devaluation, and rising inflation, widening fiscal deficits, and erosion of investor confidence
While extreme, the scenario remains plausible given Nigeria’s structural vulnerabilities, including import dependence, FX mismatches, and inflationary pressures.
The outlook projects a gradual rebuild of Nigeria’s external reserves toward $45 billion by 2027, driven by higher remittance inflows, improved oil receipts, and portfolio investment re-entries.
He noted that policy consistency, particularly transparent FX management and fiscal discipline, is critical to sustaining investor confidence and strengthening Nigeria’s balance-of-payments position.
He added that local refining capacity could also help reduce reliance on petroleum imports, save billions of Dollars in FX annually, while export growth in agriculture, manufacturing, and services under the AfCFTA is expanding Nigeria’s non-oil FX base.
Economy
FG Tasks Dangote Sugar to Hit 600,000MT Output by 2030
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Minister of State for Industry, Mr John Enoh, has tasked the Dangote Sugar Refinery to reach a production capacity of 600,000 metric tonnes (MT) per annum by 2030.
Speaking during a recent visit to the company’s complex in Numan, Adamawa State, Mr Enoh, who was accompanied by the Executive Secretary of the National Sugar Development Council, (NSDC), Mr Kamar Bakrinv, said he was at the sugar refiner as part of ongoing inspections of sugar projects nationwide, in line with President Bola Tinubu’s directive to accelerate Nigeria’s attainment of self-sufficiency in sugar production.
He said the country’s annual sugar consumption stood at about 1.8 million metric tonnes, far above current local production levels, noting that as a leading operator in the sector, Dangote Sugar must contribute significantly to bridging the supply gap.
“DSR is a very big player in the industry. Our circumstances in this sector will continue to depend on what DSR does.
“The company must deliver at least 600,000 metric tonnes annually by 2030 and sustain the output thereafter,” he said.
He commended the council for its role in driving the implementation of the Nigeria Sugar Master Plan, noting that collaboration among stakeholders remained critical.
“I have lost count of the number of times Mr President has spoken about the development of the sugar industry at Federal Executive Council (FEC) meetings,” he said.
The Minister described the infrastructure and level of investment at the Numan facility as evidence of commitment to the Backward Integration Programme.
He, however, stressed the need to accelerate efforts to meet national targets, assuring that the government will support operators to overcome existing challenges.
“We are aware that there are issues, including access to affordable long-term finance. Government is ready to work with stakeholders to address them,” he said.
Mr Enoh added that scaling up production was essential to meeting national expectations and reducing dependence on imports.
He said the programme had created employment opportunities and added value through local processing of sugarcane.
On his part, the Vice President of the Dangote Group, Mr Olakunle Alake, assured the minister of the company’s commitment to expand production capacity.
He said the firm would invest more resources to meet the 600,000 metric tonnes target by 2030.
The minister and his team inspected the new 6,000 tonnes-per-day factory expansion site, as well as harvest fields, mills and processing facilities during the visit.
The inspection also covered haulage systems, boilers, turbines and sugar bagging operations at the warehouse.
The NSMP was launched to achieve self-sufficiency, reduce reliance on imported sugar, and bridge the massive gap between local production and the national consumption rate of approximately 1.8 million metric tonnes annually.
Economy
Oyedele Describes Reports on ‘Admits Errors in Tax Laws’ Misleading
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Minister of State for Finance, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, has denied admitting errors in Nigeria’s new tax laws, describing the reports as “misleading” and a false misrepresentation.
In a Sunday statement, attributed to the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee and posted on Mr Oyedele’s official X handle, the reports were described as an unhelpful twisted narrative that risks distorting public understanding and misleading the very people the reforms were designed to benefit.
“Our attention has been drawn to misleading media reports claiming that the Minister of State for Finance, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, has ‘finally admitted errors in the new tax laws.’
“These publications misrepresent the Minister’s statements, falsely alleging that he urged Nigerians to await the outcome of a legislative probe, a process that has long been concluded and the gazetted copies certified by the National Assembly [have been] published since early January 2026.
“This twisted narrative is unhelpful as it risks distorting public understanding and misleading the very people the reforms were designed to benefit,” the statement read.
The committee explained that the minister, while speaking at a fireside chat during the Nigerian Bar Association Section on Legal Practice conference in Lagos, highlighted early gains from the tax reforms.
According to the statement, the gains highlighted by the Minister included a significant increase in the number of informal businesses seeking registration with the Corporate Affairs Commission, as well as a rise in the number of registered taxpayers from about 10 million to over 100 million nationwide.
These impressive results stem from the robust design and progressive nature of the new laws, including an exemption of small companies from tax, increased exemption thresholds for low-income earners, tax exemptions on basic consumption items like food, education, healthcare, transportation, and rent, and the introduction of the Tax Ombud to protect taxpayer rights, it stated.
The statement added, “The Minister contrasted the transformative changes in the new laws with the regressive provisions in the old laws. He, however, emphasised that no law is perfect.
“Therefore, ongoing stakeholder engagement is essential to identify and address any errors or gaps for appropriate legislative updates through Finance Bills as part of a continuous improvement process.”
Economy
Lafarge Africa to Rebrand as HBM Nigeria After Huaxin Takeover
By Adedapo Adesanya
Lafarge Africa Plc will change its corporate name to HBM Nigeria Plc, reflecting new majority ownership by China’s Huaxin Cement Co., subject to approval by shareholders of the 67-year old cement maker.
The company will ask shareholders to approve the change of its corporate identity to HBM Nigeria Plc at its 67th Annual General Meeting scheduled for April 30, 2026, in Lagos.
The proposed name change is part of a broader AGM agenda that also includes financial reporting, dividend approval, and board restructuring.
The rebrand marks a new chapter following Holcim’s exit and signals Huaxin’s intent to deepen its footprint in Nigeria’s construction materials sector.
The company highlighted the proposed name change as a key special resolution requiring shareholder approval at the meeting. Management noted that the amendment will formally alter Clause 1 of its Memorandum of Association, redefining its legal identity.
Lafarge Africa Plc reported strong financial performance for the 2025 financial year, underscoring the backdrop to its proposed strategic shift. The company recorded significant growth across key financial metrics.
Revenue rose to N1.1 trillion in 2025, up 53 per cent from N696.8 billion in 2024. Profit after tax increased from N100.1 billion to N273 billion, representing a 173 per cent growth. Operating profit climbed from N193 billion to N392 billion, driven by cost optimisation and operational efficiency.
Earnings per share surged from N6.22 to N17, reflecting improved profitability. The company has proposed a final dividend of N6.00 per share, subject to shareholder approval and applicable withholding tax.
Huaxin Cement acquired a controlling 83.81 per cent stake in Lafarge Africa Plc from the Holcim Group for roughly $1 billion. The deal, finalised in late 2025, marks Holcim’s complete exit from Nigeria to focus on other markets, with Huaxin aimed at expanding its footprint in Africa.
The chairman of Lafarge Africa, Mr Gbenga Oyebode, said Nigeria’s market holds vast potential with its positive growth indices, increasing urbanisation, and infrastructure demand.
“This development will further solidify Lafarge Africa’s position as a leading contributor to Nigeria’s infrastructure and economic growth. Nigeria’s market holds vast potential with its positive growth indices, increasing urbanisation, and infrastructure demand. We remain committed to leveraging these opportunities while maintaining our focus on sustainability and innovation.”
Lafarge expanded into Nigeria in 2001 through the acquisition of Blue Circle, thereby taking over its stake in West African Portland Cement Company (WAPCO), later rebranding it as Lafarge Cement WAPCO Plc and significantly increasing production capacity with new plants and infrastructure in Ogun State.
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