Economy
Naira May Remain Under Pressure in 2026—Yemi Kale
By Adedapo Adesanya
Top economist, Mr Yemi Kale, has projected that the Naira will remain under pressure against the United States Dollar in 2026, due to some external pressures.
Mr Kale, who is currently the Senior Economist at Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and formerly the Statistician-General of Nigeria, made the disclosure while delivering his keynote speech at the FirstBank Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026.
He outlines three scenario-based forecasts for the Dollar/Naira exchange rate, reflecting varying assumptions around oil prices, foreign-exchange (FX) inflows, inflation trends, and policy consistency.
Under the baseline scenario, the Naira is projected to trade around N1,350/$1–N1,450/$1 by the end of 2026.
According to the outlook, key assumptions include moderate improvement in Nigeria’s FX reserves and oil export revenues, relative stability in FX policy by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), gradual decline in inflation, and the absence of major external shocks, such as a sharp oil price collapse or a global Dollar surge.
It is projected that by June 2026, Naira will trade at approximately N1,313 to the Dollar, and around N1,340/$1 by December 2026.
The outlook notes that currency risks remain elevated, justifying a cautious baseline forecast rather than expectations of strong appreciation.
It noted that the Naira would remain under pressure but avoid a sharp collapse, pointing to moderate depreciation or a mild recovery from weaker levels.
In a more positive outlook, the Naira could strengthen to between N1,200 and N1,300 per Dollar by the end of 2026.
Key assumptions include strong oil price recovery or successful export diversification, effective FX reforms by the CBN, improved liquidity, and narrower gaps between official and parallel markets, and significant decline in inflation, restoring investor confidence.
He noted that this could be buoyed by increased FX inflows from oil, gas, remittances, and non-oil exports
A weaker global US Dollar, which would support emerging-market currencies.
According to the outlook, even at N1,200, the Naira would remain significantly weaker than historical benchmarks, underscoring persistent structural challenges.
In the worst-case scenario projects the Naira could weaken to N1,550–N1,650 or beyond by the end of 2026.
Key assumptions are weak oil prices or production disruptions reducing FX inflows, deepening FX liquidity crisis and forced currency devaluation, and rising inflation, widening fiscal deficits, and erosion of investor confidence
While extreme, the scenario remains plausible given Nigeria’s structural vulnerabilities, including import dependence, FX mismatches, and inflationary pressures.
The outlook projects a gradual rebuild of Nigeria’s external reserves toward $45 billion by 2027, driven by higher remittance inflows, improved oil receipts, and portfolio investment re-entries.
He noted that policy consistency, particularly transparent FX management and fiscal discipline, is critical to sustaining investor confidence and strengthening Nigeria’s balance-of-payments position.
He added that local refining capacity could also help reduce reliance on petroleum imports, save billions of Dollars in FX annually, while export growth in agriculture, manufacturing, and services under the AfCFTA is expanding Nigeria’s non-oil FX base.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange fell by 0.30 per cent on Wednesday, May 13, extending the presence of the bourse in red.
During the session, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) depreciated by 12.55 points to close at 4,143.97 points compared with the previous day’s 4,156.52 points, and the market capitalisation dropped N7.51 billion to settle at N2.479 trillion versus Tuesday’s closing value of N2.486 trillion.
The loss recorded yesterday occurred as the platform ended with four price gainers and four price losers.
Nipco Plc lost N34.40 to sell at N309.60 per share versus N344.00 per share, Central Securities and Clearing System (CSCS) Plc declined by N4.00 to N72.00 per unit from N76.00 per unit, NASD Plc tumbled by N2.36 to N35.00 per share from N37.36 per share, and Food Concepts Plc dipped by 24 Kobo to quote at N2.26 per unit compared with the preceding session’s N2.50 per unit.
Conversely, FrieslandCampina Wamco Plc rose by N12.74 to N146.34 per share from N133.60 per share, IPWA Plc soared by 73 Kobo to N8.03 per unit from N7.30 per unit, First Trust Mortgage Bank Plc added 20 Kobo to finish at N2.52 per share versus its previous value of N2.32 per share, and Light House Financial Service Plc gained 8 Kobo to close at 94 Kobo per unit versus 86 Kobo per unit.
Yesterday, the volume of securities slumped by 48.3 per cent to 1.4 million units from 2.7 million units, the value of securities dropped 43.6 per cent to N36.8 million from N65.2 million, and the number of deals stumbled by 16.1 per cent to 36 deals from 31 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units traded for N8.4 billion, followed by CSCS Plc with 60.6 million units exchanged for N4.1 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.8 million units transacted for N1.9 billion.
GNI Plc also ended the day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units valued at N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with 400 million units sold for N1.2 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira ended its recent losing streak with a N5.06 or 0.37 per cent appreciation on Wednesday, May 13, in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX), trading at N1,370.56/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,375.62/$1.
In the same vein, the Nigerian Naira appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official market yesterday by N21.43 to N1,87/£1 from N1,874.42/£1, and gained N16.12 against the Euro to close at N1,605.19/€1 versus N1,621.31/€1.
However, at the GTBank FX desk, it lost N8 against the greenback at midweek to sell at N1,383/$1 compared with the preceding session’s N1,375/$1, and at the parallel market, it remained unchanged at N1,385/$1.
The improvement in the value of the Naira comes as Nigeria’s external reserves, which provide the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) with buffers to support the Naira and meet external obligations, also recorded a fresh accretion.
Data published on the apex bank’s website showed that reserves rose by about $150 million or 0.2 per cent to $48.48 billion as of May 12, 2026, from $48.33 billion recorded on May 5, 2026.
Interbank turnover also climbed significantly by 75.31 per cent to $130.55 million on Wednesday compared to $74.47 million recorded the previous day. At the same time, the volume of transactions rose by 25 per cent to 130 deals on Wednesday from 104 deals recorded on Tuesday.
A look at the cryptocurrency market indicated that inflation surprises and renewed geopolitical tension over Taiwan weakened risk sentiment.
The sell pressure built around the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing, the first visit to China by a sitting US president in nearly a decade. Mr Xi pressed Mr Trump on Taiwan in their first meeting at the Great Hall of the People, warning of a potential “collision or even clashes” if the issue is mishandled.
China’s readout of Mr Xi’s remarks appeared to be released before the meeting had concluded, pushing the self-ruled island into the spotlight and rattling risk sentiment globally.
Solana (SOL) crashed by 4.3 per cent to $91.12, Cardano (ADA) depreciated by 2.6 per cent to $0.2656, Ripple (XRP) slumped by 1.6 per cent to $1.43, Bitcoin (BTC) declined by 1.5 per cent to $79,773.30, Ethereum (ETH) tumbled by 1.3 per cent to $2,266.06, and Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 1.2 per cent to $669.40.
But Dogecoin (DOGE) appreciated by 2.5 per cent to $0.1146, and TRON (TRX) improved by 0.4 per cent to $0.3505, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 each.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited cemented its position in the green territory on Wednesday with a marginal 0.04 per cent rise.
This was buoyed by sustained buying pressure on energy equities despite selling pressure on financial stocks, according to data from Customs Street.
The insurance counter was down by 0.73 per cent yesterday, and the banking index shed 0.70 per cent. These losses were offset by gains in the three other key sectors of the bourse, with the energy segment rising by 3.37 per cent. The consumer goods space appreciated by 1.94 per cent, and the industrial goods industry expanded by 0.43 per cent.
At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) increased by 349.96 points to 252,508.19 points from 252,158.23 points, and the market capitalisation grew by N226 billion to N161.839 trillion from N161.613 trillion.
A total of 42 stocks appreciated during the session, while 29 stocks depreciated, implying a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.
The quartet of CWG, DAAR Communications, Fidson, and Livestock Feeds gained 10.00 per cent each to sell for N23.10, N1.87, N113.00, and N10.45, respectively, while Berger Paints rose by 9.97 per cent to N140.10.
On the flip side, NCR Nigeria lost 10.00 per cent to close at N179.10, Zichis decreased by 9.99 per cent to N36.32, First Holdco shed 9.87 per cent to trade at N71.20, Neimeth dropped 9.66 per cent to N172.00, and Eterna eased by 9.59 per cent to N33.00.
At midweek, investors transacted 1.9 billion shares for N118.1 billion in 76,557 deals compared with the 2.0 billion shares worth N87.7 billion traded in 80,888 deals on Tuesday.
This showed that the value of transactions surged by 34.66 per cent, the volume of trades went down by 5.00 per cent, and the number of deals declined by 5.35 per cent.
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