Economy
Naira May Remain Under Pressure in 2026—Yemi Kale
By Adedapo Adesanya
Top economist, Mr Yemi Kale, has projected that the Naira will remain under pressure against the United States Dollar in 2026, due to some external pressures.
Mr Kale, who is currently the Senior Economist at Africa Export-Import Bank (Afreximbank) and formerly the Statistician-General of Nigeria, made the disclosure while delivering his keynote speech at the FirstBank Nigeria Economic Outlook 2026.
He outlines three scenario-based forecasts for the Dollar/Naira exchange rate, reflecting varying assumptions around oil prices, foreign-exchange (FX) inflows, inflation trends, and policy consistency.
Under the baseline scenario, the Naira is projected to trade around N1,350/$1–N1,450/$1 by the end of 2026.
According to the outlook, key assumptions include moderate improvement in Nigeria’s FX reserves and oil export revenues, relative stability in FX policy by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), gradual decline in inflation, and the absence of major external shocks, such as a sharp oil price collapse or a global Dollar surge.
It is projected that by June 2026, Naira will trade at approximately N1,313 to the Dollar, and around N1,340/$1 by December 2026.
The outlook notes that currency risks remain elevated, justifying a cautious baseline forecast rather than expectations of strong appreciation.
It noted that the Naira would remain under pressure but avoid a sharp collapse, pointing to moderate depreciation or a mild recovery from weaker levels.
In a more positive outlook, the Naira could strengthen to between N1,200 and N1,300 per Dollar by the end of 2026.
Key assumptions include strong oil price recovery or successful export diversification, effective FX reforms by the CBN, improved liquidity, and narrower gaps between official and parallel markets, and significant decline in inflation, restoring investor confidence.
He noted that this could be buoyed by increased FX inflows from oil, gas, remittances, and non-oil exports
A weaker global US Dollar, which would support emerging-market currencies.
According to the outlook, even at N1,200, the Naira would remain significantly weaker than historical benchmarks, underscoring persistent structural challenges.
In the worst-case scenario projects the Naira could weaken to N1,550–N1,650 or beyond by the end of 2026.
Key assumptions are weak oil prices or production disruptions reducing FX inflows, deepening FX liquidity crisis and forced currency devaluation, and rising inflation, widening fiscal deficits, and erosion of investor confidence
While extreme, the scenario remains plausible given Nigeria’s structural vulnerabilities, including import dependence, FX mismatches, and inflationary pressures.
The outlook projects a gradual rebuild of Nigeria’s external reserves toward $45 billion by 2027, driven by higher remittance inflows, improved oil receipts, and portfolio investment re-entries.
He noted that policy consistency, particularly transparent FX management and fiscal discipline, is critical to sustaining investor confidence and strengthening Nigeria’s balance-of-payments position.
He added that local refining capacity could also help reduce reliance on petroleum imports, save billions of Dollars in FX annually, while export growth in agriculture, manufacturing, and services under the AfCFTA is expanding Nigeria’s non-oil FX base.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange returned to positive territory after it chalked up 1.18 per cent on Wednesday, June 24.
The NASD Security Index (NSI) was up during the session by 50.02 points to 4,289.36 points from the previous session’s 4,239.34 points, and the market capitalisation got a N30.03 billion boost to settle at N2.574 trillion compared with Tuesday’s closing value of N2.544 trillion.
The growth witnessed yesterday was influenced by two securities, led by Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc, which improved its value by N4.68 to N79.68 per share from N75.00 per share. Food Concepts Plc grew by 25 Kobo to sell at N2.75 per unit versus the preceding day’s N2.51 per unit.
At the close of trading activities, the value of securities bought and sold by market participants went up by 1,387.1 per cent to N82.9 million from the preceding session’s N5.6 million, and the volume of securities soared by 1,162.2 per cent to 2.7 million units from the previous 211,671 units, while the number of deals was halved by 50 per cent to 19 deals from 38 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units sold for N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 68.3 million units transacted for N4.7 billion.
GNI Plc also closed the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units exchanged for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units traded for N415.7 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The value of the Naira further depreciated by 0.72 per cent or N9.90 against the United States Dollar to N1,380.54/$1 in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Wednesday, June 24, in contrast to Tuesday’s exchange rate of N1,370.64/$1.
Equally, the local currency weakened against the Pound Sterling in the same official market yesterday by N4.88 to close at N1,815.63/£1 versus the previous session’s N1,810.75/£1, and lost N2.61 on the Euro to sell at N1,563.63/€1 compared with the preceding day’s N1,561.02/€1.
However, at the GTBank forex counter, the domestic currency maintained stability against the US Dollar during the session at N1,380/$1, and at the parallel market, it closed flat at N1,395/$1.
Rising FX payments and a strong US Dollar have generally put significant pressure on emerging-market currencies, like the Naira.
According to the data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), NFEM interbank FX turnover was relatively steady at $125.588 million across 126 deals, from $125.314 million the previous day.
Interbank FX activity among financial institutions has fluctuated amid a sharp slowdown in forex market interventions by the apex bank, with more than six weeks of no support for the local currency.
Meanwhile, Nigeria’s foreign reserves increased further to $51.142 billion, while global oil prices entered the lower $70s.
Meanwhile, in the cryptocurrency market, nearly $1 billion worth of futures positions were liquidated across crypto majors to tokenised versions of stocks such as Micron Technology Inc (MU) and Sandisk (SNDK).
The dip triggered roughly $430 million in long liquidations on Bitcoin-tracked futures, or bets on higher prices that were automatically closed as the price fell.
Thursday’s PCE inflation print, the Fed’s preferred price gauge, is the next data point that could move the market in either direction, with Dogecoin (DOGE) down by 2.4 per cent to $0.0771.
Further, Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.9 per cent to $61,584.02, Ethereum (ETH) shed 1.6 per cent to trade at $1,645.50, Ripple (XRP) depreciated by 1.6 per cent to $1.08, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 1.5 per cent to $570.95, Cardano (ADA) crashed by 1.1 per cent to $0.1495, and Solana (SOL) slipped by 1.0 per cent to $69.19.
But TRON (TRX) gained 0.1 per cent to finish at $0.3288, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The price of Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, declined by $3.34 or 4.3 per cent on Wednesday to settle at $73.74 per barrel, its lowest level before the start of the Iran war on February 28, 2026.
Also, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures lost $2.87 or 3.9 per cent during the session to sell for $70.34 a barrel.
The development came as supply concerns eased with more stranded oil tankers exiting the Strait of Hormuz, which had been blocked since late February.
Market analysts noted that crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz are similar to what they were before the start of the Iran war, as tankers exit the key waterway with the help of military escorts. Around 20 million barrels of crude oil have exited the Strait of Hormuz in the last 24 hours.
Before the war began in late February, roughly 125 ships passed through the chokepoint each day, but current traffic remains a fraction of that.
Reuters reported that three stranded tankers carrying 5 million barrels of crude oil exited the strait on Wednesday, with two heading to Asia, shipping data showed, as the interim deal between Iran and the US began to unlock more supply stuck in the Gulf.
As Middle Eastern producers scramble to move crude that has spent months stranded in the Persian Gulf, tanker rates have exploded higher. The cost of hiring a tanker in the Gulf has nearly doubled in just a week, jumping from around $106,000 per day to more than $190,000 per day. For some very large crude carriers (VLCCs) hauling cargoes through Hormuz, daily earnings have surged to nearly $470,000.
The US also authorised Iranian oil sales this week, easing decades-old sanctions as it pushes toward a final peace deal with Iran in return for commitments on nuclear inspections and free transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Oman said it would keep the strait open to shipping without imposing tolls and had designated two temporary routes north and south of the existing shipping lane to facilitate the safe passage of vessels leaving the region.
Crude inventories in the US remained tight on strong refining demand and amid a release of oil from the government’s emergency stash. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) said crude stocks, including commercial and those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, fell by 15.1 million barrels to 743.3 million barrels in the week ended June 19, which was the lowest level since 1984.
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