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Cash Scarcity: Former NBS Chief Yemi Kale Projects Reduction in Nigeria’s Q1 GDP

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Yemi Kale KPMG Nigeria

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s former statistician general, Dr Yemi Kale, says the biting cash crunch in the country will lead to a reduction in the country’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) numbers for the first quarter of 2023 by up to 15 trillion.

In a series of tweets, the new Partner/Chief Economist and Head of Research at KPMG Nigeria said this is because a large chunk of the country’s informal sector is cash dependent just as one-third of the formal sector is.

“I am estimating a reduction in Q1 2023 nominal GDP by between N10-15 trillion due to challenges sourcing cash in Q1 2023.

“This is because about 40% of Nigeria’s N198tn GDP in 2022 is informal of which about 90% is cash-based. Further 30% of formal sector GDP is cash-based. This means N106.9tn of total GDP is cash-based,” he wrote.

He added that “Of the 46 economic activities, agriculture, some manufacturing activities (especially food & beverage, textiles, apparels), trade, arts entertainment & recreation, accommodation & food services, road, and water transport and other services expected to be the most affected.”

Speaking on the currency redesign, he noted that there is nothing new or wrong about currency redesign or cashless policy, “if done for the right reasons [and] at the right time,” putting forth that every policy will have pros and cons while benefiting some but not others.

“There is no policy that won’t affect someone negatively. Or that won’t have costs. The idea is to do a cost-benefit analysis looking at the overall impact of any policy & how and when it is to be implemented across the economy and not just in one or a few areas and deciding if overall, the benefits outweigh the costs.

“If yes, then the costs are acceptable. Then a policy maker can or should introduce palliatives to make the costs bearable to those that will be negatively affected by its implementation,” he advised.

Dr Kale said the government, after its analysis then decides to implement the policy and it turns out to be more detrimental to the entire system than beneficial even if it benefits a particular area or sector,” then it clearly isn’t a good idea to go ahead.”

He also projected a marginal drop in inflation for the month of February from the current 21.82 per cent based lack of cash to chase more of the same amount of goods that contribute to the price rise.

In his words, “Inflation though might slow down not because of an increase in output of goods & services above available cash to spend but because of lack of cash to chase more of the less same amount of goods. The CPI is about 50% food of which several are perishable in the absence of storage.”

“Assuming there is a decline in inflation rate which I anticipate (though marginal) when [NBS] publishes their inflation report, we can then compare if the gains in inflation in Q1 2023 outweighs the expected decline in GDP &possibly other macro & socio-economic variables.”

He also painted a dour picture of the country’s already high unemployment reality.

“Recall employment is also tied to GDP growth- a slowdown in growth will have a negative impact on employment. On the other hand, both a reduction in inflation and growth in GDP can improve poverty rates.

“So it will be interesting to see which dominates overall economic wellbeing,” he concluded.

However, in the inflation data released today, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said the average price of goods and services in Nigeria rose by 21.91 per cent last month.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Brent Falls Below $72 as Hormuz Shipping Reassures Oil Markets

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brent crude oil

By Adedapo Adesanya

Crude ​prices fell by more than 3 per cent on Friday as oil tankers kept exiting the ‌Strait of Hormuz, easing supply concerns the day after a cargo vessel was hit near Oman.

Brent crude futures settled at $71.99 a barrel, down $3.27 or 4.34 per cent, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) finished at $69.23 a barrel, down $2.69 or 3.74 per cent. Week-on-week, the Brent benchmark fell 10.86 per cent while the US WTI fell 9.62 per cent.

Prior to ⁠the agreement on a 60-day ceasefire, markets worried supplies would fall short of demand, but those fears seem to be ​passing.

Crude transits through the Strait of Hormuz rose to the highest weekly tally since the onset of the US-Iran conflict this week, with more than 16 million barrels passing through the waterway this Wednesday-Thursday, raising hopes of a full, gradual reopening.

This happened despite Iran firing at a Taiwanese cargo ship, raising fears that Hormuz transit could be choked off again. Iran’s IRG fired several drones at the Taiwan-owned Ever Lovely cargo ship, reportedly attempting to cross the Hormuz through “unauthorised routes,” damaging the vessel’s bridge some 7 miles off the Omani coast on Thursday.

The attack on the ship prompted the United Nations’ shipping agency to pause its voluntary evacuation scheme ⁠to enable ​hundreds of stranded ships and thousands of seafarers to sail out of the Gulf through the strait.

On Friday, Iran reasserted its right to control shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and warned Gulf states against siding ​with the US.

Many ships have been switching on their public automatic identification system (AIS) ​tracking transponders, but some may have gone undetected due in part to major disruption of AIS signals, as well as ships not showing their movements through the strait. ​That makes it difficult to estimate the complete volume of shipments.

Chinese crude oil imports this month are on course to book an even weaker month than May, according to Kpler data, which sees the daily average at just 6.4 million barrels.

According to media reports, Iraq has considered leaving the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) if the oil group does not allow it to significantly increase its crude production quotas, currently at 4.378 million barrels per day, a claim which the Iraqi Oil Ministry subsequently denied and called ‘premature’.

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Economy

Odu’a Investment Eyes N1trn Asset Base by 2030, Posts N23.58bn Pre-Tax Profit

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Odu’a Investment

By Adedapo Adesanya

Odu’a Investment Company Limited has unveiled an ambitious plan to grow its asset base to N1 trillion by 2030, following a record financial performance that saw the conglomerate post a N23.58 billion Profit Before Tax (PBT) for the 2025 financial year.

The target was announced at the company’s 44th Annual General Meeting (AGM), held on Friday at the newly redeveloped Premier Hotel in Ibadan, where shareholders, representatives of the six South-West states and other stakeholders also witnessed the conclusion of the four-year tenure of the chairman, Mr Bimbo Ashiru.

Presenting the 2025 financial results, Mr Ashiru said the group had been strategically repositioned despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, laying a solid foundation for its long-term growth ambitions.

According to the results, operating revenue increased by 78 per cent to N20.22 billion from N11.34 billion recorded in 2024, while profit before tax surged by 410 per cent to N23.58 billion from N4.62 billion in the previous year.

The impressive earnings were largely driven by N18.81 billion in fair value gains on investment properties and strong gains from the bullish performance of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX), where it trades its stock.

Mr Ashiru described the year as one of significant strategic milestones that have permanently repositioned the investment group.

Among the highlights was the completion of the extensive redevelopment of the historic Premier Hotel, Ibadan, which was commissioned on the eve of the AGM and is expected to commence full operations in the fourth quarter of 2026.

The organisation also marked the 60th anniversary of Cocoa House in July 2025, reinforcing its commitment to preserving iconic assets while unlocking greater commercial value.

In another milestone, Agusto & Co. upgraded Odu’a Investment’s credit rating from A+ to Aa- with a stable outlook, reflecting the company’s improved financial discipline and treasury management.

Speaking at the AGM, the Managing Director, Mr Abdulrahman Yinusa, disclosed that the company has commenced the process of obtaining its first international credit rating from a leading global rating agency, adding that the move would enhance access to international debt capital markets and attract foreign direct investment as part of the group’s long-term growth strategy.

The company also presented its first fully consolidated financial statements, providing shareholders with a comprehensive view of the financial position of the holding company and all its subsidiaries.

The AGM also marked a leadership transition as Mr Ashiru completed his four-year tenure as Group Chairman.

In his valedictory address, he reflected on the transformation achieved between 2022 and 2026, noting that Odu’a Investment had evolved from being “asset rich, cash poor” into a strategy-driven organisation that is both asset and cash-rich.

He thanked the governors of the six South-West states, members of the Board, past and present Group Managing Directors, subsidiary boards and management, and staff for their support throughout his tenure.

Although stepping down as chairman, Mr Ashiru will remain on the board as a director until 2028, providing continuity as the group pursues its vision of building a N1 trillion asset portfolio by 2030.

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Economy

Nigeria Accesses $1.5bn from UAE Lender’s $5bn Swap Deal

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First Abu Dhabi Bank

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria has received the first tranche of its $5 billion derivatives financing arrangement with the First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB), the United Arab Emirates’ largest lender.

According to a Bloomberg report published on Friday, the federal government drew about $1.5 billion over the past two weeks through a Total Return Swap (TRS) transaction with the lender.

The report stated that Nigeria will provide naira-denominated securities valued at 133.3 per cent of the loan amount as collateral for the transaction, while international financial institutions continue to express concerns about the risks associated with such derivative-based financing structures.

The financing is expected to support the government’s debt management strategy by replacing more expensive borrowings while helping finance the country’s fiscal deficit.

The first tranche is priced at 395 basis points above the Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR), rising to SOFR plus 400 basis points thereafter.

The transaction further expands Nigeria’s financial relationship with First Abu Dhabi Bank, which had earlier provided about $1.2 billion to support the construction of a section of the ongoing Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway.

The swap deal has come with much scrutiny from critics and international organisations. Recall that the International Monetary Fund (IMF), after a consultation visit, warned Nigeria against the deal, noting that such transactions are ‌often opaque and complex.

“Our view is that the transactions in these types of structures carry risks. Usually they are opaque, so the terms are not always ⁠very transparent when we reviewed these instruments across countries,” according to the IMF’s mission chief in Nigeria, Mr Christian Ebeke.

Mr Ebeke said Nigeria could instead issue eurobonds to finance its deficits or other means to raise funding, including on concessional terms.

The Senate in April gave its approval to the agreement put forward by President Bola Tinubu, who said his administration intends to use proceeds from the total return swap to refinance expensive debt and pay for infrastructure.

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