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CBN April PMI Shows Improvement in Business Conditions

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By Cordros Capital Research

According to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) report for the month of April, manufacturing activities, during the month, expanded after three consecutive months of contraction. The report also shows that the non-manufacturing sector came within a whisker of exiting its 16-month streak of decline.

Specifically, the manufacturing PMI grew to 51.1, from 47.7, while the non-manufacturing PMI came in at 49.5 (vs. 47.1 in March).

Indeed, the notable improvement in April’s PMI came to us as no surprise, as it validated our expectation for the month. Suffice to say that business owners and manufacturers are positively responding to a number of encouraging developments in the broader macroeconomic space.

Here, we highlight (1) the CBN’s recent and sustained commitment to forex stability, particularly narrowing the spread between the official and parallel segments of the currency market rates, (2) government effort at improving the ease of doing business in Nigeria, as the Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC) rolled out fresh reforms to consolidate and deepen the impact of its previous plan, (3) the recent approval, by the FGN, of the reduction of documentation requirements and timeline for import and export trade transactions to 48 hours (4) the launch of the nation’s Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), (5) the soon-to-bepassed 2017 appropriation bill, which will herald the establishment of Satellite Industrial Centres (SICs) across the six geo-political zones of the country, (6) an extension of the tenure of the 2016 budget’s capital spending projects until 5th May, 2017 amid a total sum of N1 trillion released from the same budget, thus far, for capex, and (7) a reported rebound in Nigeria’s business confidence, according to the latest edition of the Global Economic Conditions Survey.

Manufacturing PMI Bucks Declining Trend

The manufacturing PMI commenced the second quarter of the year on an impressive note, bucking its 3-month contraction trajectory, expanding by 3.4 percentage points, from 47.7 in March, to 51.1 in April. The notable improvement was supported by considerable expansions in production level (58.5, previously 50.8), new orders (50.1, previously 45.6), and inventories (50.6, previously 49.1), which we believe was in response to the relative stability – amid the apex bank’s renewed commitment to improve FX liquidity – of the NGN exchange rate (particularly at the parallel market) during the period under review. Clearly, this, in addition to improved power generation (close to 5,000MW), further strengthened manufacturers’ confidence, supported by the slower pace of contraction in employment level (46.6 vs. 43.6) during the month.

Ten of the sixteen sub-sectors reported growth in the review month, in the following order: appliances & components; food, beverage & tobacco products; textile, apparel, leather & footwear; chemical & pharmaceutical products; cement; nonmetallic mineral products; printing & related support activities; furniture & related products; electrical equipment and plastics & rubber products. The paper products; primary metal; computer & electronic products; fabricated metal products; petroleum & coal products, and transportation equipment sub sectors reported decline in the review period.

Non-Manufacturing PMI Misses Expansion by a Whisker

The non-manufacturing PMI showed further signs of improvement, with the index, at 49.5, marginally shy of the 50 point expansion threshold. This marks the highest point of the index in its 16-month contraction spree.

Primarily, in April, the non-manufacturing PMI benefitted from the growth of 3.5 percentage points and 4.1 percentage points in business activity (53.3, from 49.8) and new orders (50.5, from 46.4). Also, the slower rate of contraction in employment level (45.5, previously 44.0) and inventories (48.6, previously 48.0) was positive for the overall nonmanufacturing index.

Of the eighteen non-manufacturing sub-sectors, eight recorded declines in the following order: management of companies; construction; professional, scientific & technical services; arts, entertainment & recreation; wholesale trade; health care & social assistance; repair, maintenance/washing of motor vehicles and accommodation & food services.

The remaining ten sub-sectors: agriculture; utilities; educational services; transportation & warehousing; finance & insurance; electricity, gas, steam & air conditioning supply; real estate, rental & leasing; information & communication; public administration and water supply, sewage & waste management reported growth in the review month.

Comment:

Clearly, April 2017 PMI figures speak to the fact that, manufacturing and non-manufacturing activities improved over the one month period. We look for the level of improvement achieved thus far being consolidated, going forward, as the impact of the positive drivers supporting the encouraging figures deepens. We highlight the (1) CBN’s sustained commitment to forex stability, (2) possibility of the 2017 appropriation bill being passed early this month, following which the establishment of the FGN Satellite Industrial Centres (SICs) across the six geo-political zones of the country will commence, (3) potential gains from the recently launched Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP), (4) full implementation of the Presidential Enabling Business Environment Council (PEBEC) fresh plans on the ease of doing business, and (5) sustained improvement in power generation, on the back of cessation of hostilities by militants in the Niger Delta, and the rise in water level at the various dams in the country.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

LCCI Raises Eyebrow Over N15.52trn Debt Servicing Plan in 2026 Budget

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has noted that the N15.52 trillion allocation to debt servicing in the 2026 budget remains a significant fiscal burden.

LCCI Director-General, Mrs Chinyere Almona, said this on Tuesday in Lagos via a statement in reaction to the nation’s 2026 budget of N58.18 trillion, hinging the success of the 2026 budget on execution discipline, capital efficiency, and sustained support for productive sectors.

She noted that the budget was a timely shift from macroeconomic stabilisation to growth acceleration, reflecting growing confidence in the economy.

She lauded its emphasis on production-oriented spending, with capital expenditure of N26.08 trillion, representing 45 per cent of total outlays, and significantly outweighing non-debt recurrent expenditure of N15.25 trillion.

According to Mrs Almona, this composition supports infrastructure development, industrial expansion, and productivity growth.

However, she explained that the N15.52 trillion allocation to debt servicing underscored the need for stricter borrowing discipline, enhanced revenue efficiency, and expanded public-private partnerships to safeguard investments that promote growth.

She added that a further review of the 2026 budget revealed relatively optimistic macroeconomic assumptions that may pose fiscal risks.

“The oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, although lower than the $75.00 benchmark in the 2025 budget, appears optimistic when compared with the 2025 average price of about $69.60 per barrel and current prices around $60 per barrel.

“This raises downside risks to oil revenue, especially since 35.6 per cent of the total projected revenue is expected to come from oil receipts.

“Similarly, the oil production benchmark of 1.84 million barrels per day is significantly higher than the current level of approximately 1.49 million barrels per day.

“Achieving this may be challenging without substantial improvements in security, infrastructure integrity, and sector investment,” she said.

Mrs Almona said the exchange rate assumption of N1,512 to the Dollar, compared with N1,500 in the 2025 budget and about N1,446 per Dollar at the end of November, suggests expectations of a mild depreciation.

She said while this may support Naira-denominated revenue, it also increases the cost of imports, debt servicing, and inflation management, with broader macroeconomic implications.

The LCCI DG added that the inflation projection of 16.5 per cent in 2026, up from 15.8 per cent in the 2025 budget and a current rate of about 14.45 per cent, appeared optimistic, particularly in a pre-election year.

She also expressed concern about Nigeria’s historically weak budget implementation capacity, likely to be further strained by the combined operation of multiple budget cycles within a single year.

Looking ahead, Mrs Almona identified agriculture and agro-processing, manufacturing, infrastructure, energy, and human capital development as key drivers of growth in 2026.

She said that unlocking these sectors would require decisive execution—scaling irrigation and agro-value chains, reducing power and logistics costs for manufacturers, and aligning education and skills development with private-sector needs.

The LCCI head stressed the need to resolve issues surrounding the Naira for crude, increase the supply of oil to local refineries to boost local refining capacity and conserve the substantial foreign exchange used for fuel imports.

“Overall, the 2026 Budget presents a credible opportunity for Nigeria to transition from recovery to expansion.

“Its success will depend less on the size of allocations and more on execution discipline, capital efficiency, and sustained support for productive sectors.

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Economy

Customs Street Chalks up 0.12% on Santa Claus Rally

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By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited witnessed Santa Claus rally on Wednesday after it closed higher by 0.12 per cent.

Strong demand for Nigerian stocks lifted the All-Share Index (ASI) by 185.70 points during the pre-Christmas trading session to 153,539.83 points from 153,354.13 points.

In the same vein, the market capitalisation expanded at midweek by N118 billion to N97.890 trillion from the preceding day’s N97.772 trillion.

Investor sentiment on Customs Street remained bullish after closing with 36 appreciating equities and 22 depreciating equities, indicating a positive market breadth index.

Guinness Nigeria chalked up 9.98 per cent to trade at N318.60, Austin Laz improved by 9.97 per cent to N3.20, International Breweries expanded by 9.85 per cent to N14.50, Transcorp Hotels rose by 9.83 per cent to N170.90, and Aluminium Extrusion grew by 9.73 per cent to N16.35.

On the flip side, Legend Internet lost 9.26 per cent to close at N4.90, AXA Mansard shrank by 7.14 per cent to N13.00, Jaiz Bank declined by 5.45 per cent to N4.51, MTN Nigeria weakened by 5.21 per cent to N504.00, and NEM Insurance crashed by 4.74 per cent to N24.10.

Yesterday, a total of 1.8 billion shares valued at N30.1 billion exchanged hands in 19,372 deals versus the 677.4 billion shares worth N20.8 billion traded in 27,589 deals in the previous session, implying a slump in the number of deals by 29.78 per cent, and a surge in the trading volume and value by 165.72 per cent and 44.71 per cent apiece.

Abbey Mortgage Bank was the most active equity for the day after it sold 1.1 billion units worth N7.1 billion, Sterling Holdings traded 127.1 million units valued at N895.9 million, Custodian Investment exchanged 115.0 million units for N4.5 billion, First Holdco transacted 40.9 million units valued at N2.2 billion, and Access Holdings traded 38.2 million units worth N783.3 million.

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Economy

Yuletide: Rite Foods Reiterates Commitment to Quality, Innovation

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigerian food and beverage company, Rite Foods Limited, has extended warm Yuletide greetings to Nigerians as families and communities worldwide come together to celebrate the Christmas season and usher in a new year filled with hope and renewed possibilities.

In a statement, Rite Foods encouraged consumers to savour these special occasions with its wide range of quality brands, including the 13 variants of Bigi Carbonated Soft Drinks, premium Bigi Table Water, Sosa Fruit Drink in its refreshing flavours, the Fearless Energy Drink, and its tasty sausage rolls — all produced in a world-class facility with modern technology and global best practices.

Speaking on the season, the Managing Director of Rite Foods Limited, Mr Seleem Adegunwa, said the company remains deeply committed to enriching the lives of consumers beyond refreshment. According to him, the Yuletide period underscores the values of generosity, unity, and gratitude, which resonate strongly with the company’s philosophy.

“Christmas is a season that reminds us of the importance of giving, togetherness, and gratitude. At Rite Foods, we are thankful for the continued trust of Nigerians in our brands. This season strengthens our resolve to consistently deliver quality products that bring joy to everyday moments while contributing positively to society,” Mr Adegunwa stated.

He noted that the company’s steady progress in brand acceptance, operational excellence, and responsible business practices reflects a culture of continuous improvement, innovation, and responsiveness to consumer needs. These efforts, he said, have further strengthened Rite Foods’ position as a proudly Nigerian brand with growing relevance and impact across the country.

Mr Adegunwa reaffirmed that Rite Foods will continue to invest in research and development, efficient production processes, and initiatives that support communities, while maintaining quality standards across its product portfolio.

“As the year comes to a close, Rite Foods Limited wishes Nigerians a joyful Christmas celebration and a prosperous New Year filled with peace, progress, and shared success.”

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