Economy
Crude Oil Market Hits 14-Month Low on Demand Worries
By Adedapo Adesanya
Prices of the crude oil grades dropped to their lowest in 14 months on Thursday, fueled by worries about demand in the US and China and a likely rise in Libyan supplies despite supporting factors.
During the session, Brent futures were down 1 cent to $72.69 a barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures depleted by 5 cents or 0.1 per cent to $69.15 per barrel.
The price of Brent yesterday was the lowest since June 2023 and since December 2023 for WTI.
The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported an estimated inventory decline of 6.9 million barrels for the week to August 30.
A day earlier, the American Petroleum Institute reported (API) in its inventory estimate that these dropped by a sizable 7.4 million barrels in the final week of August.
The EIA’s previous report pegged the decline in oil inventories at a modest 800,000 barrels, with mixed changes in fuel inventories.
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, OPEC+ will likely delay its partial reversal of production after the expectation of a reversal has weighed on oil prices for weeks even with no indication from OPEC it was going ahead with that.
Reuters reported that OPEC+ agreed to delay a planned oil output increase for October and November citing sources, and said it could further pause or reverse the hikes if needed.
Market analysts noted that the OPEC+ decision has the effect of tightening fourth-quarter balances by about 100,000-200,000 barrels per day and should be sufficient to prevent material builds even if demand from China does not improve.
In Libya, some tankers were being allowed to load crude from the OPEC member’s storage even though output remained curtailed amid a political standoff over the leadership of the country’s central bank and oil revenue.
Economic data in the US offered some relief about the health of the economy to a market looking for clues about the path of the Federal Reserve interest rate cuts.
For instance, US services sector activity was steady in August, but employment gains slowed, remaining consistent with an easing labour market while the number of Americans filing new applications for jobless benefits declined last week as layoffs remained low.
Meanwhile, US private job growth hit a three-year low in August and data for the prior month was revised lower, potentially hinting at a sharp labour market slowdown.
Economy
15% Import Tax on PMS, Diesel Good for Economic Growth—ECCIMA
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The federal government has again been commended for the introduction of a 15 per cent tax on petroleum products imported into the country.
This latest applause came from the Enugu Chamber of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (ECCIMA), which submitted that the levy aligns with the country’s Nigeria First policy aimed to promote locally made goods.
The group described the 15 per cent fuel tax as a bold and strategic move that would stimulate economic growth, encourage local production, and create employment opportunities for Nigeria’s growing youth population.
The importation of refined petroleum products dates to the 1990s—a period that marked the beginning of Nigeria’s gradual economic decline. Since then, the naira has consistently been depreciated.
The inability of the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to revive the nation’s three government-owned refineries, coupled with indiscriminate issuance of fuel import licenses, has deepened these economic challenges.
Globally, leading economies such as the United States and China have adopted strict policies to discourage the importation of goods that can be produced locally. These nations prioritize domestic production to meet internal demand and drive exports, thereby strengthening their balance of trade. Nigeria must embrace similar strategies to achieve sustainable economic transformation.
For ECCIMA, it has long maintained that the Naira cannot appreciate while over 80 per cent of the nation’s needs remain import dependent.
Excessive importation of finished goods continues to weaken the currency, especially when these goods can be produced locally.
By imposing higher tariffs on products that can be manufactured within Nigeria, the government is taking a critical step toward protecting and revitalizing local industries.
The organisation said it was happy with the foresight of the chairman of the Dangote Group, Mr Aliko Dangote, to build the Dangote Petroleum Refinery in Lagos to meet the fuel demands of Nigeria.
The facility, located in the Lekki area of Lagos, currently has the capacity to refine about 650,000 barrels per day. But there are plans to expand this to 1.4 million barrels per day.
ECCIMA noted that Dangote Refinery and others should be supported to survive, tasking the federal government to issue more licenses to indigenous companies for refinery development.
It stressed that oil remains the country’s primary source of foreign earnings, and stakeholders with the capacity to transform the country from a net exporter of crude oil to a net exporter of refined products should receive full government support.
Economy
Oil Jumps Amid Oversupply, Russian Sanctions Worries
By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil gained about $1 on Tuesday on the impact of the latest US sanctions on Russian oil and the optimism over a potential end to the U.S. government shutdown, although oversupply concerns limited gains.
Brent crude increased its value by $1.10 or 1.72 per cent to $65.16 per barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude climbed 91 cents or 1.51 per cent to $61.04 a barrel.
Investors continued to assess the fallout from the US sanctions on Russia, and their impact on both crude oil and refined fuel markets.
Russia’s Lukoil declared force majeure at an Iraqi oilfield it operates, marking the biggest fallout yet from the sanctions imposed last month.
Restricted fuel exports due to the sanctions are propping up oil prices in the face of a crude oil glut.
Following the October 22 US sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, Iraq has stopped all cash and crude payments to Lukoil. Last week, reports emerged that Iraq’s state oil marketing company SOMO had canceled three crude loadings from Lukoil this month after the US sanctioned the second-biggest Russian oil producer last month.
Following the US sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, oil traders and operators globally are steering clear of any cargoes of these two biggest Russian oil firms to avoid drawing the attention of the Donald Trump Administration and being slapped with secondary sanctions.
After the US sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, “as a result of Russia’s lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine,” Lukoil announced it would sell all of its international assets, and reached a preliminary agreement with Switzerland-based commodity trader Gunvor to sell these.
Reuters also reported that Middle Eastern producers Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait will raise crude oil supplies to India in December as Indian refiners seek alternatives to Russian barrels.
The markets also saw support as the longest government shutdown in US history could end this week after the Senate approved a compromise that would restore federal funding. The Republican-controlled House of Representatives is due to vote on the deal later on Wednesday.
Worries about crude oversupply are curbing price gains with the main cause of this being the significant expansion of supply by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+).
Earlier this month, OPEC+ agreed to increase December output targets by 137,000 barrels per day, but also agreed to a pause in increases in the first quarter of next year.
Market analysts noted that the alliance which also Russia, has added 2 million barrels per day of output since April, and a willingness within the group to reverse voluntary production cuts further after the first quarter pause could add an extra 1 million barrels per day in the coming year.
Economy
Nigeria to Open 2025 Oil Licensing Round December 1
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has announced the commencement of the 2025 Licensing Round, effective December 1.
The commission’s chief executive, Mr Gbenga Komolafe, made the announcement at the NUPRC’s Project 1MMBOPD Additional Production Investment Forum in London on Tuesday.
In a statement issued today, the NUPRC Head of Media and Strategic Communication, Mr Eniola Akinkuotu, quoted Mr Komolafe as saying the announcement followed the approval of President Bola Tinubu, who also serves as the Minister of Petroleum Resources, in accordance with the Petroleum Industry Act.
“We are announcing that we are ready, following the approval of the Minister of Petroleum Resources in line with the Petroleum Industry Act, to commence the 2025 Licensing Round beginning from December 1, 2025,” he said.
The 2025 Licensing Round is aimed at unlocking Nigeria’s undeveloped and fallow oil and gas fields, with a particular focus on gas assets.
Earlier, Business Post reported that there were expectations that fresh licensing would add 1.7 million barrels and 7.7 trillion cubic feet of gas from 43 Field Development Plans (FDPs).
According to Mr Komolafe, the initiative seeks to accelerate upstream production and bring previously discovered but unexploited fields into commercial operation.
Licensing rounds have been a key feature of Nigeria’s upstream sector for decades. Major rounds were conducted in 2000, 2005 and 2007, while the 2010s saw smaller, targeted rounds for marginal fields and deepwater assets.
These exercises were designed to attract investors and stimulate production, although some blocks awarded in earlier rounds stalled due to technical, financial or regulatory challenges.
The NUPRC is expected to publish detailed guidelines, including the list of blocks on offer, pre-qualification requirements, and submission timelines, ahead of the licensing round to ensure transparency and clarity for all prospective investors.
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