By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil slumped on Thursday as investors weighed mixed US economic data, US sanctions on Venezuela and Iran and easing tensions in the Middle East.
During the session, Brent futures fell by 18 cents or 0.2 per cent to $87.11 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures went down by 4 cents or 0.1 per cent to $82.73 per barrel.
In the US, the world’s largest oil consumer, the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits was unchanged at a low-level last week, pointing to continued labour market strength.
Another report, however, showed existing US home sales fell in March as higher interest rates and house prices sidelined buyers from the market.
These sets of data point to labour market resilience, which is driving the economy. This, together with elevated inflation, has led experts to expect the US Federal Reserve could delay cutting interest rates until September from previous expectations of June.
Lower interest rates would reduce borrowing costs and could spur economic growth and oil demand.
In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) made it clear that an interest rate cut is coming in June but eyes have moved to what happens afterwards or how low-interest rates can go before once again starting to stimulate the economy.
Meanwhile in China, the world’s biggest oil importer, there is still room for its central bank to take steps to support the economy, but efforts are needed to prevent excess cash around the banking system as real credit demand weakens.
The world’s second-biggest economy grew faster than expected in the first quarter, but several indicators, such as property investment, retail sales and industrial output, showed that domestic demand in China remained weak, according to March data.
On the supply side, a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Venezuela lost a key US license that allowed it to export oil to markets around the world, which will hit the volume and quality of its crude and fuel sales.
The US also announced sanctions on Iran, another OPEC member, targeting the country’s unarmed aerial vehicle production after its drone strike on Israel last weekend. It, however, didn’t add the country’s oil industry to the fresh punishment as it was already under sanctions.
Also, investors have begun to unwind the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices on the perception that any Israeli retaliation to Iran’s attack on April 13 will be moderated by international pressure.
