Economy
Dangote Refinery Can Solve Nigeria’s FX Crisis, Revamp Economy—S&P Global
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
If Dangote Refinery can be given the needed support, it can solve the foreign exchange (FX) crisis and catalyse economic development in Nigeria.
This was the submission of a respected rating company, S&P Global Ratings, during a tour of the Dangote Oil Refinery and Petrochemicals in Lagos.
The rating firm was at the 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) facility as part of its sovereign credit ratings assessment of Nigeria. The team from the international rating agency were accompanied by officials from the Federal Ministry of Finance.
The Director and Lead Analyst for Sovereign and International Public Finance Ratings at S&P Global, Mr Ravi Bhatia, who led the delegation to Lagos, said the Dangote refinery would transform Nigeria into a net exporter of petroleum products.
He added that this transformation is expected to boost revenue generation and alleviate the current pressure on the country’s foreign exchange reserves.
“It is a very impressive facility, able to process 650,000 barrels a day, when in full capacity. It is the largest single-train refinery complex in the world. It came out quite quickly.
“Nigeria is a big exporter of crude but has issues with importing refined fuels. So, there is a gap in the market where crude can be refined in Nigeria, save money that way, and potentially save some foreign exchange. This will be positive for the economy in the medium term. It looks positive from our assessment,” Mr Bhatia said after an over four-hour tour of the facility.
Also, in a chat with the media, the Vice President of Oil and Gas at Dangote Industries Limited (DIL), Mr Devakumar Edwin, who led the team during the tour of the facility, reiterated that by harnessing Africa’s abundant crude oil resources to produce refined products locally, the company aims to catalyse a virtuous cycle of industrial development, job creation, and economic prosperity.
He also revealed that, as earlier promised, the company will start the production of premium motor spirit (PMS), this month (July).
Noting that products from the $20 billion facility are of high quality and meet international standards, Mr Edwin said it could meet 100 per cent of Nigeria’s demand for petrol, diesel, kerosene, and aviation Jet, with surpluses available for export.
The S&P team commended the President of Dangote Industries Limited, Mr Aliko Dangote, for integrating advanced technologies and quality control measures, including a state-of-the-art Central Control Unit ensuring smooth automation of operations.
Other members of the team of the international rating agency include the Associate Director, Sovereign Ratings, Maxmillian McGraw; Director, Corporate Ratings, Omegu Collocott; Senior Analyst, Bank Ratings, Charlotte Masvongo, and Director, Financial Services, Samira Mensah.
Currently operating at 350,000 barrels per day capacity, Edwin said the refinery is slated to scale up to at least 500,000 barrels per day capacity by July/August, commencing the refining of petrol and ultra-low sulphur diesel.
He noted that the refinery, designed to process a wide range of crudes including various African and Middle Eastern crudes, as well as US Light Oil, conforms to Euro V specifications.
In addition, it is designed to comply with the US EPA, European Union (EU) emission norms, the Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR) emission/effluent norms, and the African Refiners and Distribution Association (ARDA) standards.
While noting that most refineries were built by foreign companies, he said it is a thing of pride that a Nigerian company designed and built the world’s largest single-train refinery complex while acting directly as its Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) contractor. The refinery also incorporates a self-sufficient marine facility capable of handling the world’s largest vessels.
“The refinery can produce the best quality products in the world, Euro V grade. It is one of the energy-efficient refineries and it is highly environmentally friendly.
“It is sophisticated with a high level of automation. The largest single train refinery in the world is 100 per cent designed, engineered, and constructed by a Nigerian company as an EPC contractor,” he said.
Nigeria, one of the world’s leading oil-producing countries, exports all its crude oil for refining and subsequently imports refined products due to a lack of operational refineries. It is estimated that Nigeria imports at least 50 million litres of petrol per day to meet domestic demand.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) in its Foreign Trade Statistics for the Fourth Quarter of 2023, Nigeria spent approximately N12 trillion on the importation of petroleum products in 2023, including premium motor spirit (PMS), commonly known as petrol. This figure marks an 18.68 per cent increase compared to the N10 trillion spent on fuel imports in 2022.
Economy
Naira Crashes to N1,464/$1 at Official Market, N1,485/$1 at Black Market
By Adedapo Adesanya
It was not a good day for the Nigerian Naira at the two major foreign exchange (FX) market on Friday as it suffered a heavy loss against the United States Dollar at the close of transactions.
In the black market segment, the Naira weakened against its American counterpart yesterday by N10 to quote at N1,485/$1, in contrast to the N1,475/$1 it was traded a day earlier, and at the GTBank forex counter, it depreciated by N2 to settle at N1,467/$1 versus Thursday’s closing price of N1,465/$1.
In the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) window, which is also the official market, the nation’s legal tender crashed against the greenback by N6.65 or 0.46 per cent to close at N1,464.49/$1 compared with the preceding session’s rate of N1,457.84/$1.
In the same vein, the local currency tumbled against the Euro in the spot market by N2.25 to sell for N1,714.63/€1 compared with the previous day’s N1,712.38/€1, but appreciated against the Pound Sterling by 73 Kobo to finish at N1,957.30/£1 compared with the N1,958.03/£1 it was traded in the preceding session.
The market continues to face seasonal pressure even as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is still conducting FX intervention sales, which have significantly reduced but not remove pressure from the Naira. Also, there seems to be reduced supply from exporters, foreign portfolio investors and non-bank corporate inflows.
President Bola Tinubu on Friday presented the government’s N58.47 trillion budget plan aimed at consolidating economic reforms and boosting growth.
The budget is based on a projected crude oil price of $64.85 a barrel and includes a target oil output of 1.84 million barrels a day. It also projects an exchange rate of N1,400 to the Dollar.
President Tinubu said inflation had plunged to an annual rate of 14.45 per cent in November from 24.23 per cent in March, while foreign reserves had surged to a seven-year high of $47 billion.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was dominated by the bulls but it continues to face increased pressure after million in liquidations in previous session over accelerating declines, with Dogecoin (DOGE) recovering 4.2 per cent to trade at $0.1309.
Further, Ripple (XRP) appreciated by 3.9 per cent to $1.90, Cardano (ADA) rose by 3.5 per cent to $0.3728, Solana (SOL) jumped by 3.4 per cent to $126.23, Ethereum (ETH) climbed by 2.9 per cent to $2,982.42, Binance Coin (BNB) gained 2.0 per cent to sell for $853.06, Bitcoin (BTC) improved by 1.7 per cent to $88,281.21, and Litecoin (LTC) soared by 1.2 per cent to $76.50, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.
Economy
Crude Oil Prices Climb as US Blocks Venezuelan Tankers
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil prices edged up on possible disruptions from a US blockade of Venezuelan tankers as the market waits for news about a possible Russia-Ukraine peace deal.
Brent futures rose 65 cents or 1.1 per cent to $60.47 per barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures expanded by 51 cents or 0.9 per cent to $56.66 per barrel. Both Brent and WTI were down about 1 per cent this week after both crude benchmarks fell about 4 per cent last week.
US President Donald Trump said he was leaving the possibility of war with Venezuela on the table, noting that there would be additional seizures of oil tankers near Venezuelan waters after the US seized a sanctioned oil tanker off the coast of Venezuela last week.
The American President this week ordered a “blockade” of all sanctioned oil tankers entering and leaving Venezuela, in the US’ latest move to increase pressure on Nicolas Maduro’s government, targeting its main source of income. The pressure campaign on President Maduro has included a ramped-up military presence in the region and more than two dozen military strikes on vessels in the Pacific Ocean and Caribbean Sea near Venezuela, which have killed at least 90 people.
President Trump has also previously said that US land strikes on the South American country will soon start.
Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday said that the US is not concerned about an escalation with Russia when it comes to Venezuela, as the Trump administration builds up military forces in the Caribbean.
This development comes as President Trump seeks an end to the unending war between Ukraine and Russia that is heading towards its fourth year.
European Union leaders decided on Friday to borrow cash to loan 90 billion Euros to Ukraine to fund its defense against Russia for the next two years as Russian President Vladimir Putin offered no compromise on Friday on his terms for ending the war in Ukraine and accused the European Union of attempting “daylight robbery” of Russian assets.
Ukraine, meanwhile, struck a Russian “shadow fleet” oil tanker in the Mediterranean Sea with aerial drones for the first time.
Earlier this week, the US and Ukraine both signaled progress in negotiations about a peace agreement during talks in German capital city of Berlin. The US is now reportedly offering Ukraine security guarantees modeled on NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense pledge.
Economy
Tinubu Presents N58.47trn Budget for 2026 to National Assembly
By Adedapo Adesanya
President Bola Tinubu on Friday presented a budget proposal of N58.47 trillion for the 2026 fiscal year titled Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity to a joint session of the National Assembly, with capital recurrent (non‑debt) expenditure standing at 15.25 trillion, and the capital expenditure at N26.08 trillion, while the crude oil benchmark was pegged at $64.85 per barrel.
Business Post reports that the Brent crude grade currently trades around $60 per barrel. It is also expected to trade at that level or lower next year over worries about oil glut.
At the budget presentation today, Mr Tinubu said the expected total revenue for the year is N34.33 trillion, and the proposal is anchored on a crude oil production of 1.84 million barrels per day, and an exchange rate of N1,400 to the US Dollar.
In terms of sectoral allocation, defence and security took the lion’s share with N5.41 trillion, followed by infrastructure at N3.56 trillion, education received N3.52 trillion, while health received N2.48 trillion.
Addressing the lawmakers, the President described the budget proposal as not “just accounting lines”.
“They are a statement of national priorities,” the president told the gathering. “We remain firmly committed to fiscal sustainability, debt transparency, and value‑for‑money spending.”
The presentation came at a time of heightened insecurity in parts of the country, with mass abductions and other crimes making headlines.
Outlining his government’s plan to address the challenge, President Tinubu reminded the gathering that security “remains the foundation of development”.
He said some of the measures in place to tame insecurity include the modernisation of the Armed Forces, intelligence‑driven policing and joint operations, border security, and technology‑enabled surveillance and community‑based peacebuilding and conflict prevention.
“We will invest in security with clear accountability for outcomes—because security spending must deliver security results,” the president said.
“To secure our country, our priority will remain on increasing the fighting capability of our armed forces and other security agencies by boosting personnel and procuring cutting-edge platforms and other hardware,” he added.
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