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Dangote Sugar: Price Hikes Sweeten Earnings

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By ARM Securities

Over 2016, Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc (DSR) reported an upsurge in earnings despite lingering pressures: currency weakness, elevated raw sugar prices and higher energy cost.

Solid earnings reflected the steep hike in refined sugar prices as well as volumes resilience hinged on the largely non-discretionary nature of DSR’s product.

In addition, the company improved its financial efficiency by refinancing its expensive debt with CBN’s concessionary borrowings which, together with support from higher revaluation gains on biological assets, capped an impressive year for the company. In view of this, the company raised its DPS to N0.60 (2015: N0.50).

Going forward, whilst we expect volumes to track lower as corporate institutional clients seek cheaper alternatives, revenue should maintain its upswing on the back of higher prices.

Aided by the impact of stronger naira (at the parallel market) on COGS, cheaper borrowings, as well as improved cash position, we expect earnings to rise for the second consecutive year in 2017.

Over 2016, DSR faced sizable input cost pressures as steep naira depreciation combined with bullish raw sugar prices (+40% YoY) to drive cost of raw materials nearly two-fold higher YoY. To add, energy cost surged as lower gas supply compelled the company to rely on increased utilisation of more expensive alternative (LPFO).

Furthermore, OPEX tracked higher (+12% YoY) following upswing in S&D cost which mirrored movement in PMS prices.

Faced with sizable input cost pressure, DSR responded by hiking refined sugar prices 68% YoY (9M 16: +36.3% YoY) to N10,900/50kg bag on average.

Though volume growth consequently suffered in the final quarter of the year (YoY: 9M 16: +16%, Q4 16: -33%), overall sales in the year was flat at 778.5KMT to leave DSR’s topline printing at a record high of N169.7 billion over FY 16

In a bid to minimize margin compression, DSR substituted its more expensive intercompany loan (interest rate at 13.5% per annum) with concessionary CBN financing (9% per annum). Aided by improved cash position, stemming from efficient working capital management, the company reported net finance income of N302 million vs. net interest charge of N653 million in FY 2015.

In addition, the company reported a more than two-fold YoY rise in fair value adjustments on biological asset reflecting improved yield and longer tenor life.

Consequently, mainly riding on pass-through from strong top-line growth, DSR reported its fastest earnings growth in four years.

Going forward, we expect the latest round of price hike to N17,000/50kg bag to keep average refined sugar prices 56% higher relative to 2016.

That said, amidst increasing desire for cheaper substitutes by DSR’s corporate institutional clients (30% of overall revenue) as well as potential cutback in indirect exports, on the back of recent naira gains at the parallel market, we expect some volume contraction in the current year (FY 17E: -13% YoY to 674KMT).

Nonetheless, largely reflecting higher prices, we project revenue growth of 34% over FY 17 to N227.6billion.

On cost, whilst higher raw sugar prices should ordinarily stoke COGS pressures, we are now more sanguine on input cost in view of increased gas supply and currency appreciation at the parallel market which we believe should temper pressures from global raw sugar prices.

Specifically, we project a 1.5pps YoY decline in COGSSales ratio to 85% with COGS at N193.5billion (+32% YoY). In addition, we think the company’s sizable cash position and debt refinancing bode positively for net finance income, which we project to climb 14% YoY. Overall, reflecting higher pricing and financial efficiency, we expect earnings to print at N16.3billion, which translates to 13% increase from FY 16 level.

DSR trades at a current P/E of 6.4x vs. 16.4x for Bloomberg Middle East & Africa peers. The stock has gained 0.16% YTD (Food: -7.3% YTD, NGSE: -4.6%) with last trading price of N6.12 at a 32% discount to our FVE of (N8.08). We have a BUY rating

Source: www.armsecurities.com.ng.

All rights reserved. This publication or any portion thereof may not be reproduced or used in any manner whatsoever without the express written permission of ARM Securities Limited

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

Female-led Businesses Have 7.2% Higher Activity Rate Than Male Counterparts—Eniolorunda

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Nigeria's Business Environment

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

The chief executive of Moniepoint Incorporated, Mr Tosin Eniolorunda, has said it’s more profitable to serve women than their male counterparts.

Speaking at the second International Financial Inclusion Conference 2024 organized by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) and other critical stakeholders, he said women entrepreneurs have proven to be diligent and enhance profitability.

He disclosed that based on data harvested from the Moniepoint platform, “women-owned businesses are more likely to stay active and show higher engagement rates in financial transactions.”

According to him, in cases where financial support has been extended—through investments, KYC compliance, or the provision of tools like point-of-sale devices—female-led businesses have a 7.2 per cent higher activity rate than their male counterparts while looking at the gender relations with credit products, “women-owned businesses have an 87.5 per cent lower loan non-performance rate (NPL) than male-owned enterprises.”

He submitted at the event themed Inclusive Growth: Harnessing Financial Inclusion for Economic Development that for financial inclusion to be sustainable, especially for women, it must no longer be treated as a buzzword, charitable social activity or a checklist to be marked.

Mr Eniolorunda noted that financial service providers play a vital role in supporting gender-inclusive finance and that by collecting and analysing data on gender trends in small business performance, they can craft better policies, targeted products, and support services that encourage more women entrepreneurs.

Echoing similar sentiments, his counterpart at the Credit Registry, Ms Jameelah Sharrieff-Ayedun, said, “90 per cent of women’s income that they receive goes back to the communities and their families as such when women have access to credit, the community is enhanced, families are better off which is why it’s important that they can access this funding.”

In her summation, the Deputy Governor of the CBN for Operations, Ms Emem Usoro acknowledged some of the structural challenges that might require time and resources to be addressed including cultural practices and less systemic ones such as distance to financial services providers that stifle the participation of women-owned businesses, while signposting the power of data to catalyze inclusive growth and its viability for economic planning.

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Economy

Stanbic IBTC Asset Management Moves to Protect Mutual Fund Holders

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By Aduragbemi Omiyale

A significant step has been taken by Stanbic IBTC Asset Management to protect mutual fund holders from scams.

This is being implemented through a campaign launched by the organisation to raise awareness of scam attempts that may mislead customers into using incorrect account details, highlighting the tactics used by scammers to keep customers informed and vigilant.

Stanbic IBTC Asset Management intends to use this means to build trust and reassurance, reinforcing its dedication to the financial safety of its clients.

This move, taken in response to an alarming rise in scam attempts targeting mutual fund holders, will educate customers on protecting their investments and understanding the correct procedures for mutual fund subscriptions.

The firm has advised customers to verify the payment accounts for any Stanbic IBTC mutual fund investments, encouraging due diligence in confirming the legitimacy of financial communications.

The chief executive of Stanbic IBTC Asset Management, Ms Busola Jejelowo, said, “At Stanbic IBTC, our top priority is our customers’ financial safety, and we are fully committed to ensuring that our clients have the security they need while managing their investments.

“This campaign is designed to protect our customers and empower them with the knowledge necessary to recognise and verify the authenticity of any communications they receive.

“By doing so, we aim to foster a sense of confidence and security among our clients regarding their financial decisions.”

It was gathered that recently, enquiries about the authenticity of mutual fund subscription messages have surged. Many of these messages contain differing and potentially incorrect account numbers, leading to confusion and concern among investors.

The company has made it clear that customers should not hesitate to contact the support team directly with any concerns, questions, or suspicions regarding communications or transactions.

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Economy

NASD Index Records 0.67% Appreciation

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NASD Unlisted Security Index

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) recorded a 0.67 per cent appreciation on Thursday, November 28, with the portfolios of investors on the platform rising by N7.09 billion to N1.061 trillion from the N1.053 trillion it closed in the preceding session and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) growing by 20.22 points to wrap the session at 3,026.60 points compared with 3,006.38 points recorded on Wednesday.

This happened after the unlisted securities market finished the trading session with three price gainers and two price losers.

Afriland Properties Plc gained N1.58 to end at N17.39 per unit compared with the midweek’s closing price of N15.81 per unit, as Acorn Petroleum Plc improved its value by 14 Kobo to close at N1.69 per share, in contrast to the previous day’s N1.55 per share, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc went up by N1 to sell for N23.00 per unit compared with the preceding session’s N22.00 per unit.

On the flip side, First Trust Microfinance Bank Plc lost 4 Kobo to finish at 32 Kobo per share versus Wednesday’s closing price of 36 Kobo per share and Geo-Fluids Plc slumped by 3 Kobo to sell at N3.90 per unit compared to N3.93 per unit it was sold a day earlier.

There was a 191.9 per cent rise in the volume of securities traded in the session as investors exchanged 2.9 million units compared with the previous trading day’s 1.0 million units.

Equally, there was a 283.9 per cent surge in the value of shares traded yesterday to N7.9 million from the N2.1 million recorded in the previous day, and the number of deals increased by 300 per cent to 12 deals from the three deals executed in the preceding day.

At the close of transactions, Geo-Fluids Plc was the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) with 1.7 billion units valued at N3.9 billion, trailed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units sold for N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.3 million units worth N5.3 million.

Aradel Holdings Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 108.7 million units worth N89.2 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 752.2 million units valued at N7.8 billion, and Afriland Properties Plc with 297.3 million units sold for N5.3 billion.

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