Economy
Dangote Sugar: Price Hikes Sweeten Earnings
By ARM Securities
Over 2016, Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc (DSR) reported an upsurge in earnings despite lingering pressures: currency weakness, elevated raw sugar prices and higher energy cost.
Solid earnings reflected the steep hike in refined sugar prices as well as volumes resilience hinged on the largely non-discretionary nature of DSR’s product.
In addition, the company improved its financial efficiency by refinancing its expensive debt with CBN’s concessionary borrowings which, together with support from higher revaluation gains on biological assets, capped an impressive year for the company. In view of this, the company raised its DPS to N0.60 (2015: N0.50).
Going forward, whilst we expect volumes to track lower as corporate institutional clients seek cheaper alternatives, revenue should maintain its upswing on the back of higher prices.
Aided by the impact of stronger naira (at the parallel market) on COGS, cheaper borrowings, as well as improved cash position, we expect earnings to rise for the second consecutive year in 2017.
Over 2016, DSR faced sizable input cost pressures as steep naira depreciation combined with bullish raw sugar prices (+40% YoY) to drive cost of raw materials nearly two-fold higher YoY. To add, energy cost surged as lower gas supply compelled the company to rely on increased utilisation of more expensive alternative (LPFO).
Furthermore, OPEX tracked higher (+12% YoY) following upswing in S&D cost which mirrored movement in PMS prices.
Faced with sizable input cost pressure, DSR responded by hiking refined sugar prices 68% YoY (9M 16: +36.3% YoY) to N10,900/50kg bag on average.
Though volume growth consequently suffered in the final quarter of the year (YoY: 9M 16: +16%, Q4 16: -33%), overall sales in the year was flat at 778.5KMT to leave DSR’s topline printing at a record high of N169.7 billion over FY 16
In a bid to minimize margin compression, DSR substituted its more expensive intercompany loan (interest rate at 13.5% per annum) with concessionary CBN financing (9% per annum). Aided by improved cash position, stemming from efficient working capital management, the company reported net finance income of N302 million vs. net interest charge of N653 million in FY 2015.
In addition, the company reported a more than two-fold YoY rise in fair value adjustments on biological asset reflecting improved yield and longer tenor life.
Consequently, mainly riding on pass-through from strong top-line growth, DSR reported its fastest earnings growth in four years.
Going forward, we expect the latest round of price hike to N17,000/50kg bag to keep average refined sugar prices 56% higher relative to 2016.
That said, amidst increasing desire for cheaper substitutes by DSR’s corporate institutional clients (30% of overall revenue) as well as potential cutback in indirect exports, on the back of recent naira gains at the parallel market, we expect some volume contraction in the current year (FY 17E: -13% YoY to 674KMT).
Nonetheless, largely reflecting higher prices, we project revenue growth of 34% over FY 17 to N227.6billion.
On cost, whilst higher raw sugar prices should ordinarily stoke COGS pressures, we are now more sanguine on input cost in view of increased gas supply and currency appreciation at the parallel market which we believe should temper pressures from global raw sugar prices.
Specifically, we project a 1.5pps YoY decline in COGSSales ratio to 85% with COGS at N193.5billion (+32% YoY). In addition, we think the company’s sizable cash position and debt refinancing bode positively for net finance income, which we project to climb 14% YoY. Overall, reflecting higher pricing and financial efficiency, we expect earnings to print at N16.3billion, which translates to 13% increase from FY 16 level.
DSR trades at a current P/E of 6.4x vs. 16.4x for Bloomberg Middle East & Africa peers. The stock has gained 0.16% YTD (Food: -7.3% YTD, NGSE: -4.6%) with last trading price of N6.12 at a 32% discount to our FVE of (N8.08). We have a BUY rating
Source: www.armsecurities.com.ng.
All rights reserved. This publication or any portion thereof may not be reproduced or used in any manner whatsoever without the express written permission of ARM Securities Limited
Economy
Nigerian Bourse Begins Week With Marginal 0.01% Loss
By Dipo Olowookere
It was bearish start of the week for the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited after it printed a marginal 0.01 per cent loss on Monday due to mild profit-taking.
It was observed that the 0.47 per cent decline recorded by the consumer goods index and the 0.06 per cent shrink posted by the insurance counter crumbled the Nigerian bourse during the session, as they overpowered the gains achieved by the other key sectors of Customs Street.
The banking space grew by 0.28 per cent, and the energy industry expanded by 0.06 per cent, while the commodity and the industrial goods indices closed flat.
At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) decreased by 17.00 points to 166,112.50 points from last Friday’s 166,129.50 points and the market capitalisation contracted by N11 billion to N106.343 trillion from the previous session’s N106.354 trillion.
Industrial and Medical Gases gave up 9.95 per cent to sell for N34.85, Haldane McCall lost 9.88 per cent to close at N3.83, LivingTrust Mortgage Bank depreciated by 9.57 per cent to N4.44, Ikeja Hotel slipped by 7.28 per cent to N32.50, and Union Dicon dipped by 5.26 per cent to N9.00.
Conversely, Learn Africa gained 10.00 per cent to sell for N7.15, Champion Breweries appreciated by 10.00 per cent close at N19.25, NCR Nigeria also grew by 10.00 per cent to N141.40, Trippe G jumped by 9.94 per cent to N5.86, and Neimeth soared by 9.90 per cent to N11.10.
Business Post reports that 45 stocks ended on the gainers’ log during the session and 24 stocks finished on the losers’ chart, representing a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.
Traders bought and sold 629.6 million shares worth N14.8 billion in 57,858 deals on Monday versus the 539.9 million shares valued at N16.7 billion transacted in 48,023 deals last Friday, showing a moderation in the value of trades by 11.38 per cent, and a spike in the volume of trades and the number of deals by 16.61 per cent and 20.48 per cent apiece.
Secure Electronic Technology led the activity log with 83.3 million equities valued at N98.2 million, Access Holdings traded 52.9 million units worth N1.2 billion, Jaiz Bank exchanged 39.7 million units for N339.1 million, Tantalizers sold 34.2 million units valued at N103.1 million, and Fidelity Bank transacted 23.7 million units worth N473.5 million.
Economy
Oil Market Steadies as Iran Supply Fears Ease
By Adedapo Adesanya
The oil market steadied on Monday as civil unrest in Iran subsided, reducing the likelihood of a US attack that could disrupt supplies.
Brent crude was up by 4 cent or 0.02 per cent to $64.14 a barrel while the US West Texas Intermediate traded at $59.44 a barrel due to a US federal holiday in honour of Martin Luther King Jr.
Pressure eased from last week’s highs over Iran tensions and its handling of the protests started to ease and US President Donald Trump appeared to back off from a strike on Iran, for now.
Officials say over 5,000 people have been killed in the protest which was sparked by economic conditions and graduated to call for a regime change in the country which is a member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Meanwhile, President Trump stirred a commotion in another part of the world after saying the US would slap tariffs on its European and NATO allies Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, The Netherlands, and Finland, for supporting Greenland’s status as an autonomous Danish territory.
The return of the US-EU tariff row, now over Trump’s obsession to take over Greenland, threatens to return the cross-Atlantic trade row as European leaders have suggested the EU could pull out of the trade deal with the US.
The European leaders will convene in Brussels, Belgium, on Thursday for an emergency summit.
Following renewed threats from the US against Greenland, gold and silver prices jumped on Monday, while European equities fell. However, as Greenland does not produce oil, market analysts noted that there is no direct connection for crude markets.
Also, the Dollar eased against the safe-haven Yen and Swiss Franc on Monday on concerns about the possible trade war between the US and Europe.
The market was also looking at the risk of damage to Russian infrastructure and distillate supplies at a time when colder weather is forecast to cross North America and Europe, adding to market unease.
Economy
Sanwo-Olu Signs 2026 Lagos Budget of N4.45trn into Law
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The Governor of Lagos State, Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu, on Monday signed the 2026 appropriation bill of N4.45 trillion into law.
At the signing ceremony in Alausa, Ikeja in the presence of his deputy, Mr Femi Hamzat, the Governor thanked the Lagos State House of Assembly, led by the Speaker, Mr Mudashiru Obasa, for passing the 2026 budget christened Budget of Shared Prosperity.
He said though the appropriation bill was increased from N4.2 trillion to N4.45 trillion, this only showed the independence of the parliament, promising that the executive arm of government will accountably implement the bill.
“On behalf of the people and the government of Lagos State, let me thank the House of Assembly. This is a budget that you have had your full input into, you have scrutinized, you have dissected, and you have taken your time to do the very constitutional provision, which is enshrined in our constitution. I want to thank you for the work you have done.
“You will notice that there is a slight increase from what we put forward, but that goes to show that the independence that you have, and the fact that you believe that Lagosians actually also deserve more, and the fact that you believe that we also can do more. So we’re excited and we’re happy with the way that you have brought it forward here to us.
“For us in the executive, it is another opportunity for us to be able to work together. It is a budget of shared prosperity that has been properly christened, and sharing prosperity means that it’s an inclusive government, it’s a budget that must carry everybody along irrespective of what part of the state, what division in the state, what sector you are from you must feel governance, you must feel the essence of why we’re in government in one form or the other,” Mr Sanwo-Olu said.
The Speaker, represented by the Majority leader of the Lagos Assembly, Mr Noheem Adams, praised the Governor for his people-oriented policies.
Business Post recalls that on November 25, 2025, Mr Sanwo-Olu presented a proposed to spend N4.237 trillion this year, higher than the N3.366 trillion approved for 2025.
But the lawmakers increased the budget to N4.445 trillion and passed it on January 8, 2026, and transmitted to the Governor for assent.
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