Connect with us

Economy

Dangote Sugar: Price Hikes Sweeten Earnings

Published

on

By ARM Securities

Over 2016, Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc (DSR) reported an upsurge in earnings despite lingering pressures: currency weakness, elevated raw sugar prices and higher energy cost.

Solid earnings reflected the steep hike in refined sugar prices as well as volumes resilience hinged on the largely non-discretionary nature of DSR’s product.

In addition, the company improved its financial efficiency by refinancing its expensive debt with CBN’s concessionary borrowings which, together with support from higher revaluation gains on biological assets, capped an impressive year for the company. In view of this, the company raised its DPS to N0.60 (2015: N0.50).

Going forward, whilst we expect volumes to track lower as corporate institutional clients seek cheaper alternatives, revenue should maintain its upswing on the back of higher prices.

Aided by the impact of stronger naira (at the parallel market) on COGS, cheaper borrowings, as well as improved cash position, we expect earnings to rise for the second consecutive year in 2017.

Over 2016, DSR faced sizable input cost pressures as steep naira depreciation combined with bullish raw sugar prices (+40% YoY) to drive cost of raw materials nearly two-fold higher YoY. To add, energy cost surged as lower gas supply compelled the company to rely on increased utilisation of more expensive alternative (LPFO).

Furthermore, OPEX tracked higher (+12% YoY) following upswing in S&D cost which mirrored movement in PMS prices.

Faced with sizable input cost pressure, DSR responded by hiking refined sugar prices 68% YoY (9M 16: +36.3% YoY) to N10,900/50kg bag on average.

Though volume growth consequently suffered in the final quarter of the year (YoY: 9M 16: +16%, Q4 16: -33%), overall sales in the year was flat at 778.5KMT to leave DSR’s topline printing at a record high of N169.7 billion over FY 16

In a bid to minimize margin compression, DSR substituted its more expensive intercompany loan (interest rate at 13.5% per annum) with concessionary CBN financing (9% per annum). Aided by improved cash position, stemming from efficient working capital management, the company reported net finance income of N302 million vs. net interest charge of N653 million in FY 2015.

In addition, the company reported a more than two-fold YoY rise in fair value adjustments on biological asset reflecting improved yield and longer tenor life.

Consequently, mainly riding on pass-through from strong top-line growth, DSR reported its fastest earnings growth in four years.

Going forward, we expect the latest round of price hike to N17,000/50kg bag to keep average refined sugar prices 56% higher relative to 2016.

That said, amidst increasing desire for cheaper substitutes by DSR’s corporate institutional clients (30% of overall revenue) as well as potential cutback in indirect exports, on the back of recent naira gains at the parallel market, we expect some volume contraction in the current year (FY 17E: -13% YoY to 674KMT).

Nonetheless, largely reflecting higher prices, we project revenue growth of 34% over FY 17 to N227.6billion.

On cost, whilst higher raw sugar prices should ordinarily stoke COGS pressures, we are now more sanguine on input cost in view of increased gas supply and currency appreciation at the parallel market which we believe should temper pressures from global raw sugar prices.

Specifically, we project a 1.5pps YoY decline in COGSSales ratio to 85% with COGS at N193.5billion (+32% YoY). In addition, we think the company’s sizable cash position and debt refinancing bode positively for net finance income, which we project to climb 14% YoY. Overall, reflecting higher pricing and financial efficiency, we expect earnings to print at N16.3billion, which translates to 13% increase from FY 16 level.

DSR trades at a current P/E of 6.4x vs. 16.4x for Bloomberg Middle East & Africa peers. The stock has gained 0.16% YTD (Food: -7.3% YTD, NGSE: -4.6%) with last trading price of N6.12 at a 32% discount to our FVE of (N8.08). We have a BUY rating

Source: www.armsecurities.com.ng.

All rights reserved. This publication or any portion thereof may not be reproduced or used in any manner whatsoever without the express written permission of ARM Securities Limited

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Advertisement
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Economy

Beta Glass Rejigs Board to Drive Next Phase of Innovation, Growth

Published

on

beta glass

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

The board of Beta Glass Plc has been reorganised, with the addition of four new executives, who will help to drive the company’s next phase of innovation and growth.

In a statement, Beta Glass announced the appointments of four non-executive directors, who are Mr Nitin Kaul, Ms Olusola Carrena, Mr Bolaji Olatunbosun Osunsanya, and Mr Boye Olusanya.

They are replacing the departing Mr Emmanouil Metaxakis, Mr Vassilis Kararizos, Mr Serge Joris, and Mr Gagik Apkarian from the board.

Their appointments, however, are subject to the ratification of the shareholders of the organisation at the next Annual General Meeting (AGM) on June 26, 2026.

Mr Kaul brings to the team over 25 years of global experience in strategy, mergers and acquisitions, restructuring, and business transformation across developed and emerging markets. He is a Partner, Portfolio Operations and member of the Executive Committee at Helios Investment Partners. Prior to joining Helios, he co-founded a boutique advisory firm focused on M&A and operational improvement for private businesses. He previously served as President of diversified industrial and aftermarket businesses at Gates Corporation, where he

was part of the executive team that led its sale to Blackstone in 2014. Earlier in his career, he held senior leadership roles at Tomkins and began his professional journey at Arthur Andersen. He currently serves on the boards of several companies across emerging markets.

As for Ms Carrena, she is a highly respected financial services leader with over 23 years of experience across investment banking, private equity, and corporate finance in Africa. She serves as Managing Director (Nigeria) on the Investment Team at Helios Investment Partners, where she oversees deal origination, execution, exits, and portfolio management across sectors. Before this, she spent a decade at Stanbic IBTC Capital Limited, rising to Executive Director and Head of Corporate Finance. During her tenure, she led and closed over 30 transactions valued at more than $4 billion across diverse industries, including oil and gas, FMCG, financial services, infrastructure, and healthcare. A CFA Charterholder, she holds a Master’s degree from the University of Alberta and a First-Class degree from the University of Lagos.

For Mr Osunsanya, he is an accomplished CEO, investor, and governance leader with more than 35 years of experience spanning energy, finance, and infrastructure. He previously served as Group CEO of Axxela Ltd., where he led strategic restructuring and significant value growth initiatives. Earlier, he held executive leadership roles at Oando PLC and Access Bank Plc, contributing to business transformation, governance strengthening, and sustainable expansion. He has served on the boards of several publicly listed and private companies, providing oversight in areas of strategy, audit, risk, and corporate governance, and remains an influential voice in Nigeria’s energy and financial sectors.

On the part of Mr Olusanya, he is a transformative business leader with over three decades of cross-industry experience spanning engineering, telecommunications, manufacturing, and agribusiness. He currently serves as chief executive of Flour Mills of Nigeria Plc, where he is leading a strategic transformation agenda focused on value chain integration, sustainability, and digital innovation. He previously served as Chief Executive Officer of 9mobile and as Chief Transformation Officer at Dangote Industries Limited, driving enterprise-wide restructuring and operational efficiency programs. He also served as Group Operating Partner at Helios Investment Partners, overseeing performance optimisation across portfolio companies. In addition, he is Vice Chairman of the Nigerian Economic Summit Group, contributing to national economic policy dialogue and private-sector development.

Continue Reading

Economy

Dangote Refinery Cuts Ex-Depot Prices of Petrol, Diesel as Oil Tumbles

Published

on

Dangote refinery petrol

By Adedapo Adesanya

Dangote Petroleum Refinery has reduced its ex-depot prices for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) and Automotive Gas Oil (AGO), marking the first downward adjustment after several sharp increases recorded in recent days.

According to the refinery’s latest pricing template released on March 10, 2026, the gantry price of petrol has been cut by N100 to N1,075 per litre, down from N1,175 per litre previously.

The 650,000 barrels per day capacity refinery also disclosed that PMS supplied through coastal distribution will now sell at N1,050 per litre, reflecting a marginal price differential for marine deliveries.

In addition, the gantry price of AGO, commonly known as diesel, has been reduced to N1,430 per litre, representing a N190 drop from the earlier price of N1,620 per litre.

The company noted that the quoted gantry prices exclude statutory charges imposed by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).

The price adjustment came amid a recent decline in global crude oil prices, which has started to ease cost pressures across the international petroleum market and is influencing pricing trends in the downstream sector.

US President Donald Trump reassured markets and claimed the war would end soon, but Iran on Tuesday vowed not to let “a litre” of oil be exported from the Middle East until the United States and Israel stop bombing it.

Brent crude price, which hit a high of $109 per barrel, has now dropped to $90 per barrel, as the largest oil producers in the Middle East Gulf have deepened production cuts and are already lowering output by a combined more than 5 million barrels per day, as the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has started to affect upstream production.

However, there are worries that, unlike the speed at which petrol stations hiked their cost at the pump, the revised ex-depot prices will not reflect through depot channels and translate into lower retail pump prices nationwide.

Continue Reading

Economy

Petrol Station Owners Urge NNPC to Expand Local Refining to Withstand Global Oil Shocks

Published

on

Petrol Station Owners

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) has urged the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to urgently strengthen domestic refining capacity to shield the country from global petroleum market shocks.

The National President, PETROAN, Billy Gillis-Harry, on Monday called on the Group Chief Executive Officer of the state oil company, Mr Bayo Ojulari, to facilitate the immediate commencement of production at Nigeria’s local refineries.

Mr Gillis-Harry said that production at the refineries was paramount, particularly the Area five Plant at Port Harcourt Refinery and the Warri Refinery, which previously operated briefly before shutdown for profit index evaluation.

He said that this had become imperative due to the ongoing conflict involving Israel, the United States and Iran, which was pushing global petroleum prices to alarming levels.

Projecting future trends, he warned that Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) could rise close to N2,000 per litre while Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) may approach N3,000 per litre if the situation persists.

He said that sustained drone and missile attacks now threaten critical oil routes and infrastructure, creating uncertainty in global supply chains.

“With no clear end to the conflict, petroleum product prices in both international and domestic markets are expected to rise sharply in the coming days.

“Before the crisis, PMS, known as fuel sold at N774 per litre, but now sells above N1,000 per litre, representing an increase of about 30 per cent.

“Diesel, previously sold at N950 per litre, has risen to N1,400 per litre and above, an increase of about 49 per cent,” he said.

Mr Gillis-Harry said that rehabilitating Nigeria’s refineries for immediate domestic production was critical.

On local refining, he said that it would reduce exposure to international market volatility, especially as Nigeria had abundant crude oil resources under the custody of NNPC Limited.

He said that government-owned refineries were less vulnerable to global supply disruptions compared to privately owned refineries dependent on imported crude.

The PETROAN president said that continued fuel price increases would worsen inflation, cause job losses, deepen economic hardship, increase transportation costs, and raise prices of goods and services nationwide.

“Fuel remains essential for daily mobility, while diesel is vital for manufacturing and industrial operations,” he said.

He commended President Bola Tinubu for the ongoing bold policies to reform the oil and gas sector, and called on Tinubu to direct the immediate rehabilitation and commencement of production at the government-owned refineries.

According to him, this will ultimately bring relief to citizens and stimulate economic growth.

Continue Reading

Trending