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Okomu Oil: Great Finish to Epic Year

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By ARM Securities

Over FY 16, The Okomu Oil Palm Company Plc (Okomu) reported a nearly two-fold YoY jump in earnings buoyed by an upsurge in commodity prices (CPO and rubber) and the company’s focus on containing cost.

In view of the buoyant operating performance, the company raised its dividend per share to N1.50 (FY 15: N0.10) yet still had sufficient capital to pursue its expansion plans.

Going forward, the still favourable price regime as well as management’s cost containment efforts leave scope for sustained earnings growth over 2017.

Okomu reported its fastest pace of revenue growth in five years as favourable pricing environment drove sales at the Crude Palm Oil (CPO) segment to record high even as rubber turnover recovered from the 2015 trough despite weaker volumes (-8% YoY to 7,140MT).

Pertinently, the robust CPO sales in the review period was buoyed by higher domestic CPO prices—which reflected combined impact of naira depreciation and bullish global CPO prices (+13% YoY) that deterred imports (29% of total supply).

At the other end, cartel like cuts by major rubber producers bolstered impact of weaker currency on rubber sales, which are entirely exported.

Management linked the decline in rubber volume to the combined impact of wind damage and fire outbreaks on some portion of the company’s rubber plantation which forced some rejuvenation exercises on a section of the company’s rubber farmland.

Given the price induced revenue growth, Okomu reported a moderate rise in input (+5% YoY) and operating (+22% YoY) costs despite rising energy expenses.

According to Management, the benign cost is a fall-out of deliberate increase in import substitution—with imported raw materials now reduced to about 10% of COGS—and tight control on labour costs (65% of overall cost).

Particularly, over the period, the company reduced its full-time employees by 5% to 534 with the knock-down effect applying downward pressure on salaries and wages (-4.4% YoY to N2.4 billion). Consequently, operating margin rose to a record high of 48% (operating profit: +112% YoY). Further down, despite FX loss of N1.0 billion1 which underpinned a nearly three-fold YoY jump in net finance cost, strong operating performance ensured a nearly two-fold YoY jump in earnings to a record high of N4.9 billion.

Over 2017, we expect revenue growth to be tempered by recent retracement in domestic CPO prices from January 2017 peak of N732/kg2 which management linked to the sharp appreciation of the naira (incentivising cheaper imports), declining demand, and onset of the harvest season.

Nonetheless, reflecting the lower base in 2016, we project mean CPO prices to be 38% higher YoY at N423/kg.

The foregoing combined with higher volume (+7% YoY to 38,853MT), informs our forecasted CPO sales to N16.7 billion (+37% YoY). With regards to rubber, management’s guidance of sustained rejuvenation exercise over the financial year underpins our flat volume projection of 7,140MT.

However, reflecting recovery in global rubber prices (Q1 17: +94% YoY, 2017E: +44% YoY), we project a 44% YoY jump in rubber sales to N3.2 billion which brings overall turnover to N19.8 billion (+38% YoY), sustaining its double-digit growth for the third consecutive year, albeit at a slower pace.

On costs, as with 2016, we expect both input and operating cost to rise modestly, given the largely price induced growth in top-line.

In addition, management intends to increasingly substitute its biggest remaining raw material import (fertiliser) with domestic alternatives if available, or cheaper imports. Furthermore, the company intends to connect to the national grid over the year, which could reduce power cost by as much as 60%.

Given that significant progress on this front is not expected until towards the end of the year, we believe the company’s expanded plantation of 21,798 hectares3 should drive a 10% and 21% YoY rise in COGS and OPEX respectively.

Given the company’s sizable external debt of N1.2 billion (43% of total borrowings), we expect vagaries in the FX rate, which we forecast at N360/$ at the year end to induce a N300 million FX loss (-72% YoY) with the reverberating effect expected to drive net finance cost 57% lower YoY to N451 million. Bringing it altogether, we project FY 17 earnings to climb 80% YoY to N8.8 billion.

Largely reflecting strong earnings growth thus far, Okomu has rallied 30.7% YTD, as with peer Presco (+17.2% YTD) outperforming the broader NSEASI (-6.2% YTD).

The stock trades at current P/E of 10.20x (forward: 5.6x) vs. 11.61x (forward: 8.46x) for Bloomberg Middle East & Africa peers with last trading price of N52.51 at a discount to our FVE of N63.10.

We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.

Source: www.armsecurities.com.ng.

All rights reserved. This publication or any portion thereof may not be reproduced or used in any manner whatsoever without the express written permission of ARM Securities Limited

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

MRS Oil, FrieslandCampina Wamco Shrink NASD Index by 0.68%

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MRS Oil voluntary delisting

By Adedapo Adesanya

The duo of MRS Oil and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc weakened the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 0.68 per cent on Friday, June 5.

MRS Plc lost N19.00 during the session to sell at N171.00 per share compared with Thursday’s value of N190.00 per share, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc depreciated by N8.70 to finish at N181.68 per unit compared with the preceding session’s N190.38 per unit.

As a result, the market capitalisation further lost N22.59 billion to close at N2.607 trillion versus the N2.630 trillion it ended a day earlier, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) dropped 37.76 points to settle at 4,358.32 points, in contrast to the previous day’s 4,396.08 points.

The alternative stock market closed the last trading day of this week with a price gainer, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc, which gained 6 Kobo to quote at N78.40 per share compared with the preceding session’s N78.34 per share. However, it could not prevent the market from going down at the close of business.

Yesterday, the volume of securities bought and sold by investors went down by 50.0 per cent to 140,345 units from the preceding day’s 280,714 units, the value of stocks decreased by 16.5 per cent to N17.9 million from the previous session’s N21.5 million, and the number of deals carried out by market participants fell by 35.7 per cent to 27 deals from the 42 deals recorded on Thursday.

When trading activities closed for the day, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units exchanged for N8.4 billion, trailed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units sold for N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 64.7 million units traded for N4.4 billion.

GNI Plc also ended the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units transacted for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units valued at N415.7 million.

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Economy

NGX Index Rebounds 0.15% on Renewed Interest in Financial Stocks

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Financial Stocks

By Dipo Olowookere

Renewed interest in financial stocks and others lifted the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited by 0.15 per cent on Friday.

Customs Street closed higher yesterday despite the 1.37 per cent loss recorded by the consumer goods sector as a result of profit-taking.

This was offset by gains in the other key sectors of the local bourse, as the insurance counter chalked up 1,14 per cent. The banking space appreciated by 0.90 per cent, the industrial goods segment grew by 0.46 per cent, and the energy sector expanded by 0.01 per cent.

Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 366.00 points to 242,593.31 points from 242,227.31 points, and the market capitalisation gained N235 billion to close at N155.594 trillion compared with the previous day’s N155.359 trillion.

The trio of International Energy Insurance, Abbey Mortgage Bank, and DAAR Communications improved by 10.00 per cent each yesterday to N7.26, N9.35, and N1.98, respectively, while Zichis advanced by 9.39 per cent to N32.38, with Sovereign Trust Insurance up by 8.70 per cent to N2.50.

On the flip side, Academy Press lost 9.84 per cent to quote at N8.25, University Press depreciated by 9.73 per cent to N5.10, Africa Prudential dipped by 2.63 per cent to N12.95, Chams crumbled by 2.44 per cent to N4.00, and International Breweries slipped by 1.59 per cent to N12.35.

Business Post reports that the market breadth index was positive during the session after recording 37 appreciating equities and 14 depreciating equities, implying strong investor sentiment.

Abbey Mortgage Bank led the activity chart with a turnover of 164.1 million units worth N1.5 billion, Ellah Lakes sold 76.7 million units for N767.2 million, Access Holdings transacted 44.8 million units valued at N1.1 billion, Linkage Assurance exchanged 23.0 million units worth N41.2 million, and The Initiates traded 20.2 million units for N562.1 million.

At the close of trades, market participants transacted 608.5 million units worth N32.0 billion in 53,826 deals versus the 588.5 million units valued at N27.9 billion executed in 57,352 deals in the previous session. This showed that the number of deals eased by 6.15 per cent, the volume of transactions rose by 3.40 per cent, and the value of transactions soared by 14.70 per cent.

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Economy

Naira Depreciates to N1,362/$1 at Official Market

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Naira 4 Dollar

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira further depreciated against the United States Dollar by N3.46 or 0.25 per cent to N1,362.21/$1 from N1,358.75/$1 in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, June 5.

However, it appreciated against the Pound Sterling in the same market window during the session by N4.47 to trade at N1,823.59/£1 compared with the previous day’s N1,828.06/£1, and gained N7.00 against the Euro to sell at N1,574.58/€1, in contrast to Thursday’s closing price of N1,581.58/€1.

For another trading session, the Nigerian Naira maintained stability against the Dollar in the parallel market and the GTBank forex counter on Friday at N1,375/$1 and N1,372/$1, respectively.

The Naira is expected to remain strong in the near term, backed by a rise in external reserves, which are nearing $50 billion, enhancing analysts’ confidence about its outlook in the second half of 2026.

Heightened global uncertainty has reduced the incentive for importers and corporates to demand FX, as cautious trade weighs on import needs. Analysts estimate a $40 billion net FX position for the year, a projection anchored in oil windfall gains.

As for the cryptocurrency market, prices remained depressed following a strong US jobs report that spurred markets to price in higher-for-longer interest rates, sending Treasury yields and the dollar up while hammering stocks, especially AI-related names. Crypto markets saw heavy leverage washouts with about $1.6 billion in positions liquidated over 24 hours.

Ethereum (ETH) gave up 4.9 per cent to trade at $1,584.68, Solana (SOL) fell by 3.3 per cent to $63.22, Bitcoin (BTC) crashed by 1.9 per cent to $61,333.23, Dogecoin (DOGE) slipped by 1.8 per cent to $0.0821, and Ripple (XRP) moderated by 1.8 per cent to $1.09.

Further, TRON (TRX) dropped 1.6 per cent to sell at $0.3197, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 1.0 per cent to $581.18, and  Cardano (ADA) declined by 0.4 per cent to $0.1589, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) gained 0.07 to sell at $0.9997, and US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $0.9998.

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