Economy
Dec 2016 Inflation Rate Expected to Shrink to 18.44%
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
FSDH Securities Ltd has predicted that Nigeria’s inflation rate for December 2016 is expected to “marginally to 18.44 percent from 18.48 percent recorded in the month of November 2016.”
In its latest report, the firm explained this fall would be driven by lower than anticipated price increases within the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages division, as well as the base effect.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is expected to release the inflation rate for the month of December 2016 on January 13, 2016 based on the information on the twitter handle of the Statistician General of the Federation and Chief Executive Officer of the NBS.
The monthly Food Price Index (FPI) released by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) shows that the FPI remained relatively the same in December. The Index was marginally down by 0.07 percent, compared with its revised November figure. Year-on-year (YoY), it grew by 12.02 percent.
According to the FAO, the performance of the Index was largely driven by a sharp fall in sugar prices. The FAO Sugar Index fell by 8.56 percent, on the back of the weakening Brazilian currency against the US Dollar.
Also, favourable reports emanating from the main producing region (Central South) contributed to the fall in prices. YoY, the Index rose by 26.34 percent.
The FAO Meat Price Index was down by 1.09 percent, as all meat categories recorded lower prices in December 2016.
On the flip side, the FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index appreciated by 4.22 percent. The rebound was primarily driven by lower global inventory level for palm oil. YoY, the Index appreciated by 29.31 percent in December 2016. The FAO Dairy Index appreciated by 3.35 percent from November 2016, as a result of weaker dairy production in the European Union (EU) and Oceania.
The Index recorded a YoY growth of 28.83 percent. The FAO Cereal Price Index increased marginally by 0.50 percent, mainly due to the increase in the prices of rice and maize. YoY, the Index declined by 6.25 percent.
Analysis by the FSDH Securities Ltd indicates that the value of the Naira remained stable at the inter-bank market while it depreciated at the parallel market by 2.65 percent to close at $/N491 from $/N478 at the end of November.
The depreciation in the parallel market led to an increase in the prices of imported consumer goods in Nigeria between the two months under review.
The prices of food items that FSDH Research monitored in December 2016 moved in varying directions.
The prices of vegetable oil, palm oil, meat, fish, sweet potatoes, onions and Irish potatoes were up by 25 percent, 21 percent, 14.2 percent, 12.5 percent, 7.1 percent, 4.2 percent and 4.17 percent respectively.
The prices of tomatoes and beans were down by 5 percent and 4.49 percent respectively. The prices of rice, garri, and yam remained unchanged. The movement in the prices of food items during the month resulted in a 1.04 percent increase in our Food and Non-Alcoholic Index to 216.99 points.
FSDH Securities Ltd said it also noticed increases in the prices of Clothing and Footwear; Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels divisions between November and December 2016.
It emphasised that its model indicates that the price movements in the consumer goods and services in December 2016 would increase the Composite Consumer Price Index (CCPI) to 213.35 points, representing a month-on-month increase of 0.96 percent.
“We estimate that the increase in the CCPI in December will produce an inflation rate of 18.44 percent,” FSDH Securities Ltd stated in its report.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited managed to finish in the green territory on Monday after it marginally closed higher by 0.01 per cent.
The last minute escape from the bears was triggered by the gains posted by large-cap equities like Zenith Bank, Aradel Holdings and others, offsetting the losses recorded by GTCO, Oando, First Holdco and others.
According to data obtained by Business Post, only 29 stocks ended on the gainers’ chart, while 44 equities landed on the losers’ table, indicating a negative market breadth index and weak investor sentiment.
Universal Insurance rose by 10.00 per cent to sell for N1.32, Premier Paints appreciated by 10.00 per cent to N11.00, DAAR Communications improved by 9.93 per cent to N1.55, RT Briscoe increased by 9.92 per cent to N8.64, and Morison Industries advanced by 9.91 per cent to N10.98.
On the flip side, Omatek declined by 10.00 per cent to N2.70, Union Homes REIT declined by 9.96 per cent to N85.40, AXA Mansard shrank by 9.94 per cent to N14.31, Deap Capital decreased by 9.90 per cent to N8.46, and C&I Leasing moderated by 9.80 per cent to N6.90.
On the first trading session of this week, market participants bought and sold 762.8 million shares valued at N18.4 billion in 55,374 deals compared with the 687.4 million shares worth N15.0 billion traded in 41,553 deals last Friday, a spike in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 10.97 per cent, 22.67 per cent, and 33.26 per cent, respectively.
Tantalizers ended the day as the most active stock with 88.5 million units sold for N329.4 million, Zenith Bank traded 40.2 million units worth N2.9 billion, Veritas Kapital transacted 39.2 million units valued at N92.1 million, Universal Insurance exchanged 29.3 million units for N38.1 million, and First Holdco transacted 27.6 million units worth N1.1 billion.
The sectorial performance yesterday showed that the mood of investors was in the sell region despite the slight growth recorded by Customs Street, as only the energy index closed in green, rising by 2.00 per cent.
The insurance counter was down by 1.99 per cent, the banking industry depleted by 0.64 per cent, the consumer goods shrank by 0.37 per cent, and the industrial goods retreated by 0.08 per cent.
When the first trading day of February 2026 ended on Monday, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 14.23 points to 165,384.63 points from 165,370.40 points, while the market capitalization chalked up N9 billion to finish at N106.162 trillion compared with the previous session’s N106.153 trillion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The two major crude oil grades in the global market fell by more than 4 per cent per barrel on Monday after the most recent tensions between the United States and Iran appeared to have eased.
Brent crude futures went down by $3.02 or 4.4 per cent to settle at $66.30 per barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures declined by $3.07 or 4.7 per cent to $62.14 per barrel.
Last week, markets reacted to the renewed tension in the world’s most important oil-producing and exporting region, and oil prices soared.
However, this weekend, US President Donald Trump said that he believes Iran is “seriously” talking with the US, adding he hopes that negotiations could lead to an “acceptable” deal with the member of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Market analysts noted that with the US President facing weak poll numbers, a military escalation that risks pushing petrol prices sharply higher appears unlikely ahead of the November midterm elections.
Prices were also pressured by a stronger US Dollar and milder weather forecasts. The American currency strengthened as currency traders cheered President Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair. A stronger Dollar makes oil more expensive for investors using other currencies.
US futures prices for diesel, used in heating and power generation, fell more than 6 per cent triggered by forecasts of milder weather in the US, the world’s largest oil consumer.
OPEC+ agreed to keep its oil output unchanged for March at a meeting, the producer group said on Sunday. The brief meeting reaffirmed that decision for March, after earlier gatherings did the same for January and February.
The eight producers – Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman – raised production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day from April through December 2025, roughly 3 per cent of global demand.
In November, the group froze further planned increases for January through March 2026 because of seasonally weaker consumption.
Four OPEC+ producers that have been pumping crude above their respective quotas have filed with the OPEC Secretariat updated compensation plans through June 2026, OPEC said on Monday.
The countries: Iraq, the UAE, Kazakhstan, and Oman filed updated plans to compensate for pumping above OPEC+ quotas through June 2026.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The duo of Presco Plc and Guaranty Trust Holding Company (GTCO) Plc has listed additional shares on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited.
The extra equities of these two publicly-listed organisations were admitted to the local stock exchange last Friday, increasing their respective total issued and fully paid-up shares.
For Presco, it listed fresh 166,666,667 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each on the daily official list of the NGX on Friday, January 30, 2026, increasing its total issued and fully paid-up stocks from 1,000,000,000 units to 1,166,666,667 units.
The additional equities were from the rights issue of the firm allotted to shareholders on the basis of one new share for every existing six ordinary shares held as at close of business on Monday, October 13, 2025.
In a circular issued over the weekend, the NGX said, “Trading licence holders are hereby notified that additional 166,666,667 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each of Presco Plc were on Friday, January 30, 2026, listed on the daily official list of Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited (NGX).
“The additional shares arose from the company’s rights issue of 166,666,667 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at N1,420.00 per share on the basis of one new share for every existing six ordinary shares held as at close of business on Monday, October 13, 2025.
“With the listing of the additional 166,666,667 ordinary shares, the total issued and fully paid-up shares of Presco Plc has now increased from 1,000,000,000 to 1,166,666,667 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each.”
As for GTCO, it listed additional125,000,000 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each at N80.00 per unit offered through private placement.
The fresh equities taken to Customs Street have raised the total issued and fully paid-up shares of GTCO from 36,425,229,514 to 36,550,229,514 ordinary shares of 50 Kobo each.
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