Economy
Drop in Nigerian Treasury Bills Yield Imminent
By FSDH Research
Yields on the Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs), particularly on the 364-day tenor, are likely to drop with the plan of the Debt Management Office (DMO) to refinance the NTBs through foreign debt.
The DMO hinted recently that the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) plans to issue about US$3bn in foreign debt of longer tenor, to refinance the domestic debt particularly the high-cost NTBs.
The plan is in line with the debt management strategy of the FGN for 2016-2019, with the overall objective of reducing its total cost of borrowing to achieve the country’s strategic target of an optimal debt mix of 60 percent and 40 percent for domestic and external debts respectively.
The debt management strategy also sets a target of domestic debt mix of 75 percent and 25 percent for long and short-tenored debts respectively.
Our analysis of the data from the DMO on the debt structure of Nigeria as at March 2017 shows that the total public debt stood at N19.16 trillion, made up of N14.93 trillion (78 percent) and N4.23 trillion (22 percent) in domestic and foreign debts respectively.
Although the external debt component at 22 percent as at March 2017 is far from the optimal mix of 40 percent, it is an improvement from 14 percent as at 2013.
If the DMO were to move the debt position as at March 2017 to the planned optimal level, it means that it would have to refinance about N3.43 trillion of the local debt in favour of the external debt.
Thus, we expect the external borrowing to grow faster than the domestic borrowing in the medium to long term.
The FGN’s component of the domestic debt stood at N11.97 trillion as at March 2017. NTB, which is the short-term debt, accounted for 30 percent or N3.60 trillion of the domestic debt of the FGN. This is higher than the target of 25 percent under the debt management strategy, meaning that the FGN could be issuing more of FGN Bonds than NTBs going forward.
This strategy will achieve two things: reduce the weighted average cost of borrowing for the government because the interest rate on the 364-Day NTB is higher than the interest rate on the FGN Bonds; and extend the tenor of the FGN debts.
Many corporate and individual borrowers have criticized the crowding out effect of the NTBs due to their high yields. The average yield on the 364-Day NTB in 2016 stood at 16.15 percent while the average yield between January 2017 and August 2017 stood at 22.91 percent.
From the monetary policy perspective, the high yields may be necessary to tame high inflation and protect the value of the local currency – it however constitutes a drain on the inadequate revenue of the FGN.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted earlier in August 2017 that preliminary data for the first half of 2017 indicates significant revenue shortfalls, with the interest-payments to revenue ratio remaining high, at 40 percent as at the end of June 2017, and projected to increase further under current policies.
The DMO in its 2016 Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) report notes that the debt service-to-revenue ratio (for FGN only) breached the country’s specific threshold of 28 percent. The DSA report added that the FGN debt portfolio still remains highly vulnerable to persistent shocks in revenue, indicating a potential challenge in maintaining debt sustainability.
The total amount of debt service in 2016 stood at N1.20trn and represents 58 percent of the federal allocation disbursed to the FGN.
As at March 2017 the total debt service stood at N449 billion representing 82 percent of the total FGN allocation of N549 billion for the period.
We note that FGN revenue has been challenged in the last two years on account of a drop in oil revenue.
Thus, the plan of the FGN is to use the refinancing to lower debt service figures taking advantage of the relatively lower interest rate in the international financial markets. The FGN will have to put in place strategies to manage the currency risks associated with foreign borrowing.
The average yield on the FGN 6.375 percent July 2023 Eurobond from January till August 21, 2017 is 5.94 percent compared with 364-Day NTB of 22.91 percent.
The various efforts of the government should also increase revenue accruable to the country and the FGN.
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The deadline for filing individual annual income tax returns for residents of Lagos State has again been extended to April 21, 2026.
This information was revealed via a statement signed by the Head of Corporate Communications of the Lagos State Internal Revenue Service (LIRS), Mrs Monsurat Amasa-Oyelude, on Saturday.
The agency thanked some taxpayers for their continued compliance and commitment to the filing of their individual annual income tax returns, but charged those who have yet to file theirs to do so before the new deadline.
LIRS had earlier moved the deadline from its statutory period of March 31, 2026, to April 14, 2026, but due to “the overwhelming response and to enhance taxpayer convenience, while maintaining the integrity and accuracy of submissions,” the date was moved forward to April 26.
The tax-collecting organisation said it “observed a significant increase in traffic on its eTax platform as more taxpayers endeavour to meet the filing deadline.”
“In view of this development, and to ensure that all taxpayers are provided with adequate opportunity to successfully complete their filings, LIRS hereby announces a further extension of the deadline, now set for April 21, 2026,” it stated.
The agency reiterated that all filings must be completed electronically via the LIRS eTax platform: https://etax.lirs.net, which remains the only approved channel for submission.
Taxpayers were reminded that the filing of annual income tax returns remains a statutory obligation and were encouraged to take advantage of this final extension to fulfil their civic responsibility.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited was in green on Friday after it closed higher by 0.30 per cent as a result of sustained bargain hunting.
Customs Street was up yesterday after three of the five major sectors came under buying pressure, with the consumer goods index up by 1.64 per cent, the industrial goods space up by 1.12 per cent, and the banking counter up by 0.64 per cent.
Business Post observed that profit-taking brought down the insurance by 2.61 per cent, and weakened the energy sector by 0.01 per cent.
At the close of business, the market capitalisation increased by N707 billion to N131.166 trillion from N130.459 trillion, and the All-Share Index (ASI) expanded by 1,097.86 points to 203,770.42 from 202,672.56 points.
Transactions by Nigerian stock investors shrank during the session, as 548.6 million shares worth N31.5 billion exchanged hands in 48,538 deals compared with the 652.9 million shares valued at N39.8 billion transacted in 51,101 deals a day earlier.
This implied that the trading volume went down by 15.98 per cent, the trading value depreciated by 20.85 per cent, and the number of deals crashed by 5.02 per cent.
Access Holdings finished the day as the busiest equity after selling 52.7 million units valued at N1.4 billion, Zenith Bank exchanged 47.8 million units worth N5.4 billion, UBA traded 38.9 million units for N1.8 billion, Secure Electronic Technology transacted 36.7 million units worth N35.5 million, and GTCO sold 34.9 million units valued at N4.6 billion.
The market breadth index was negative during the session with 20 price gainers and 38 price losers, indicating weak investor sentiment.
Trans Nationwide Express appreciated by 9.91 per cent to N3.77, International Breweries grew by 9.88 per cent to N13.35, Chams rose by 9.84 per cent to N3.35, Guinea Insurance improved by 9.38 per cent to N462.90, and Lafarge Africa gained 8.52 per cent to close at N233.20.
On the flip side, Omatek lost 10.00 per cent to trade at N2.07, Austin Laz declined by 9.93 per cent to N3.99, Coronation Insurance dipped by 9.88 per cent to N2.92, Zichis crashed by 9.58 per cent to N12.55, and Cornerstone Insurance retreated by 8.77 per cent to N5.20.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange closed the last trading session of the week in the southern territory after further losing 0.59 per cent on Friday, April 10.
This happened as three price decliners weakened the NASD market due to continued sell-offs. The bourse did not finish in green this week.
11 Plc lost N24.70 to close at N222.30 per share compared with the previous day’s N247.00 per share, MRS Oil dropped N1 to settle at N164.00 per unit versus Thursday’s N165.00 per unit, and Geo-Fluids decreased by 25 Kobo to N3.00 per share from N3.25 per share.
As a result, the market capitalisation shrank by N13.79 billion to N2.315 trillion from N2.329 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) declined by 23.05 points to 3,870.45 points from 3,893.50 points.
Yesterday, there were two price gainers led by Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc, which chalked up N1.07 to sell at N64.21 per unit versus N63.50 per share, and Impresit Bakalori Plc appreciated by 22 Kobo to N2.42 per share from N2.20 per share.
The volume of securities fell by 81.9 per cent to 188,593 units from 1.04 million units, the value of securities decreased by 36.3 per cent to N25.7 million from N40.4 million, and the number of deals remained unchanged at 26 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc was the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by CSCS Plc with 57.6 million units exchanged for N3.9 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.6 million units worth N1.8 billion.
GNI Plc was also the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units transacted for N8.4 billion, followed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units s0ld for N415.7 million and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with 400 million units traded at N1.2 billion.
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