Economy
Drop in Nigerian Treasury Bills Yield Imminent
By FSDH Research
Yields on the Nigerian Treasury Bills (NTBs), particularly on the 364-day tenor, are likely to drop with the plan of the Debt Management Office (DMO) to refinance the NTBs through foreign debt.
The DMO hinted recently that the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) plans to issue about US$3bn in foreign debt of longer tenor, to refinance the domestic debt particularly the high-cost NTBs.
The plan is in line with the debt management strategy of the FGN for 2016-2019, with the overall objective of reducing its total cost of borrowing to achieve the country’s strategic target of an optimal debt mix of 60 percent and 40 percent for domestic and external debts respectively.
The debt management strategy also sets a target of domestic debt mix of 75 percent and 25 percent for long and short-tenored debts respectively.
Our analysis of the data from the DMO on the debt structure of Nigeria as at March 2017 shows that the total public debt stood at N19.16 trillion, made up of N14.93 trillion (78 percent) and N4.23 trillion (22 percent) in domestic and foreign debts respectively.
Although the external debt component at 22 percent as at March 2017 is far from the optimal mix of 40 percent, it is an improvement from 14 percent as at 2013.
If the DMO were to move the debt position as at March 2017 to the planned optimal level, it means that it would have to refinance about N3.43 trillion of the local debt in favour of the external debt.
Thus, we expect the external borrowing to grow faster than the domestic borrowing in the medium to long term.
The FGN’s component of the domestic debt stood at N11.97 trillion as at March 2017. NTB, which is the short-term debt, accounted for 30 percent or N3.60 trillion of the domestic debt of the FGN. This is higher than the target of 25 percent under the debt management strategy, meaning that the FGN could be issuing more of FGN Bonds than NTBs going forward.
This strategy will achieve two things: reduce the weighted average cost of borrowing for the government because the interest rate on the 364-Day NTB is higher than the interest rate on the FGN Bonds; and extend the tenor of the FGN debts.
Many corporate and individual borrowers have criticized the crowding out effect of the NTBs due to their high yields. The average yield on the 364-Day NTB in 2016 stood at 16.15 percent while the average yield between January 2017 and August 2017 stood at 22.91 percent.
From the monetary policy perspective, the high yields may be necessary to tame high inflation and protect the value of the local currency – it however constitutes a drain on the inadequate revenue of the FGN.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) noted earlier in August 2017 that preliminary data for the first half of 2017 indicates significant revenue shortfalls, with the interest-payments to revenue ratio remaining high, at 40 percent as at the end of June 2017, and projected to increase further under current policies.
The DMO in its 2016 Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA) report notes that the debt service-to-revenue ratio (for FGN only) breached the country’s specific threshold of 28 percent. The DSA report added that the FGN debt portfolio still remains highly vulnerable to persistent shocks in revenue, indicating a potential challenge in maintaining debt sustainability.
The total amount of debt service in 2016 stood at N1.20trn and represents 58 percent of the federal allocation disbursed to the FGN.
As at March 2017 the total debt service stood at N449 billion representing 82 percent of the total FGN allocation of N549 billion for the period.
We note that FGN revenue has been challenged in the last two years on account of a drop in oil revenue.
Thus, the plan of the FGN is to use the refinancing to lower debt service figures taking advantage of the relatively lower interest rate in the international financial markets. The FGN will have to put in place strategies to manage the currency risks associated with foreign borrowing.
The average yield on the FGN 6.375 percent July 2023 Eurobond from January till August 21, 2017 is 5.94 percent compared with 364-Day NTB of 22.91 percent.
The various efforts of the government should also increase revenue accruable to the country and the FGN.
For businesses operating across borders, payments are no longer simply the final step in a transaction. The way money moves can influence where a company sells, how quickly it can enter a new market, and how easily customers can complete a purchase. As digital payment methods become more diverse, businesses are adjusting not only their checkout options but also the way payment processes fit into wider operations.
This shift is particularly visible in international commerce. A company can now serve customers in multiple markets without relying on a single payment method or a traditional physical presence in each location. Digital payments have become part of the infrastructure that supports increasingly distributed business models.
A More Connected Payment Environment
Global commerce has created a more complicated payment environment. Customers in different countries may have very different expectations about how a purchase should be paid for. Some markets rely heavily on cards, while others have seen rapid adoption of digital wallets, bank-based payment methods, or other local alternatives.
For businesses, this variety creates both opportunities and practical challenges. Offering payment options that customers recognize can reduce friction during a transaction, while supporting several markets may require businesses to work with different payment technologies and providers.
Digital payments have therefore become closely connected to market expansion. A company entering a new country does not only need to consider demand for its products or services. It also needs to understand how customers in that market prefer to pay and whether its existing payment setup can accommodate those expectations.
More Choices for Businesses and Customers
The growth of digital payments has expanded the range of choices available on both sides of a transaction.
Consumers can increasingly choose between cards, digital wallets, bank transfers, mobile payment methods and other forms of electronic payment. Businesses, meanwhile, can select from different technologies and payment providers depending on their markets and operational requirements.
This development has changed the role of payments in the customer experience. Payment is no longer necessarily treated as an isolated technical process that begins only after a purchasing decision has been made. The available options can influence whether a customer completes a transaction in the first place.
For international businesses, flexibility can be particularly important. A payment method that is familiar and convenient in one market may be less relevant in another. Supporting a broader selection can allow businesses to adapt their payment experience without changing the underlying product or service.
The Rise of Alternative Payment Models
Traditional card and bank-based payments remain important, but the digital payments landscape has expanded beyond these established methods. Digital wallets, account-to-account payments, mobile solutions and cryptocurrency have all contributed to a broader definition of what a digital transaction can look like.
Cryptocurrency remains a smaller part of the overall payments landscape, but it has created another category of payment technology for businesses to consider. Specialized solutions such as BitHide can provide businesses with tools for handling crypto payments as part of their broader payment operations.
The significance of this development is not necessarily that every business will adopt cryptocurrency. Rather, it demonstrates how the payment landscape continues to diversify. Businesses operating internationally can increasingly choose from different models instead of relying on a single approach across every market.
Payments Are Becoming Part of Business Operations
As payment systems become more digital, their role increasingly extends beyond accepting money from customers. Payment processes can interact with accounting, order management, customer records and other parts of a company’s digital operations.
This is particularly relevant for businesses with large transaction volumes or customers in multiple countries. Manual payment processes can become difficult to manage as the number of transactions, currencies and payment methods increases. Digital systems can help businesses organize these processes within a wider operational framework.
The result is a gradual shift in how companies think about payments. Instead of treating payment processing as a separate function, businesses are increasingly considering it alongside other elements of their digital infrastructure.
This does not mean that every company needs a complex payment setup. The appropriate approach depends on the business model, target markets, transaction volumes and types of customers involved. For some companies, a small number of established payment methods may be sufficient. Others may need a more flexible arrangement because of the markets they serve.
Adapting to Different Markets
One of the more important changes brought by digital payments is the ability to adapt payment experiences to different markets.
International businesses often face differences in consumer behavior, financial infrastructure and preferred payment methods. A payment strategy that works well domestically may therefore require adjustments when a company expands internationally.
Digital payment technology can make these adjustments more practical, but it does not remove the need for local market knowledge. Businesses still need to understand customer preferences, applicable requirements and the practical costs associated with different payment methods.
This makes payment strategy part of international expansion rather than an issue that can be addressed only after a new market has been entered.
What Comes Next for Global Businesses
The digital payments market is likely to continue becoming more diverse as businesses and customers adopt new ways of moving money. The important change may not be the replacement of one payment method by another, but the growing ability to combine different methods according to the needs of a particular business or market.
For global companies, this creates an emphasis on adaptability. Payment systems need to support the way a business operates rather than becoming a limitation on where and how it can sell.
Digital payments are consequently becoming more than a convenient alternative to cash or traditional payment processes. They are increasingly connected to international commerce, customer experience and day-to-day business operations. As payment options continue to develop, companies that can adapt their payment strategies to different markets will be better positioned to operate in an increasingly digital global economy.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Dangote Refinery accepted 52.6 million barrels of crude oil and condensate from producers in the second quarter of 2026, representing 78 per cent of the 68.1 million barrels offered to the refinery, according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC).
The refinery, which required about 63 million barrels during the three-month period, received the largest share of crude volumes offered to domestic refineries, accounting for about 98 per cent of total volumes offered by producers.
The figures were contained in the commission’s latest data on the implementation of the Domestic Crude Supply Obligation (DCSO), which showed that producers supplied 53.7 million barrels to local refineries between April and June.
The Q2 performance translated to a 97.4 per cent compliance rate with the DCSO, which is enforced by the NUPRC under Section 109 of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) 2021.
The agency said the DCSO framework operates on a “willing buyer, willing seller” basis, with monthly consultations between producers and refiners used to determine crude allocation volumes.
Despite producers offering the Dangote Refinery about 5.1 million barrels more than its quarterly requirement, the plant accepted 52.6 million barrels, leaving about 15.5 million barrels of the offered volume unaccepted.
NUPRC said the difference highlighted the need for continued coordination between producers and domestic refiners, particularly on commercial terms and logistics.
The commission attributed the improved DCSO compliance in the second quarter to increased local crude production and the signing of long-term crude supply agreements backed by bankable Sales and Purchase Agreements (SPAs).
According to NUPRC, these agreements have reduced transactional difficulties and improved the predictability of crude supply, enabling domestic refineries to plan their offtake more effectively.
Monthly data showed mixed performance during the quarter. In April, producers offered 19.31 million barrels against an allocation of 18.13 million barrels, while refineries received 20.88 million barrels, representing a 114.9 per cent delivery rate.
In May, producers offered 23.19 million barrels against an allocation of 18.78 million barrels, but actual deliveries fell to 14.23 million barrels, resulting in a 75.8 per cent compliance rate.
In June, producers offered 26.84 million barrels against an allocation of 18.17 million barrels, while refineries received 18.61 million barrels, representing a 102.4 per cent performance rate.
The NUPRC said it would continue to enforce the DCSO under the PIA while leveraging increased domestic production and commercial supply arrangements to support Nigeria’s energy sufficiency objectives.
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The Group Chief Innovation and Technology at Meristem, Mr Stanley Jacob, submitted that the core financial challenge facing Nigeria and Africa is not funding, but a lack of financial architecture and project readiness to deploy existing capital safely and productively.
At a forum organised by The Alternative Bank (AltBank) last Thursday in Lagos, Mr Jacob tasked policymakers to think out of the box, noting that the continent holds vast domestic capital pools.
At the event themed Beyond Interest, he also disclosed that the convergence of the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System (PAPSS) with the tokenisation of real-world assets could hand Nigeria a first-mover advantage in continental capital markets.
This sentiment was echoed by the Executive Director of Tugrande Alliance Limited, Ajibola Tobi-Osho, who pointed out that while Nigeria has moved from crisis management to macroeconomic stability, the binding constraint has shifted from inflation to capital allocation, with banks parking record liquidity at the central bank rather than lending to the businesses that drive jobs and growth.
Last Thursday’s programme was convened to advance the case for non-interest finance as a practical route to mobilising patient capital into Nigeria’s productive economy, as well as press investors and policymakers to judge every allocation by both the returns it earns and the capacity it builds.
The chairman of The Alternative Bank, Mr Muhtar Bakare, stated that Nigeria’s constraint is less a shortage of capital than a shortage of the trust that allows capital to do patient work.
“What we lack is not effort. We lack capital that stays long enough to turn effort into capacity, capacity into durable jobs and durable jobs into stability. That is why the distinction between extractive and productive capital matters,” he said.
Also speaking, the Governor of Lagos State, Mr Babajide Sanwo-Olu, averred that the government is not a competitor to private investment but an enabler of it.
“The future of finance is not only about the price of capital; it is increasingly about the quality of the economic activity that capital enables. Lagos is not only open for business; Lagos is prepared to do business,” Mr Sanwo-Olu, represented by the Commissioner for Finance, Mr Abayomi Oluyomi, stated.
In his remarks, former Governor of Lagos State and former Minister of Works and Housing, Mr Babatunde Fashola, argued that capital anchored to real, productive assets and to the public good delivers more durable value than money chased for short-term yield, and urged investors and institutions to weigh the long-term social returns of where they place their funds.
Delivering his brief on The Business Case for Ethical Capital, a member of Sterling Financial Holdings Company Plc board, Mr Abubakar Suleiman, traced The Alternative Bank’s journey from a modest non-interest window opened by Sterling Bank in 2014 to an institution he said now holds total assets approaching ₦500 billion and serves nearly a million customers.
“The Alternative Bank has shown that non-interest banking can grow, win customers, and generate profit. The business case for ethical capital already exists. Our task is to apply it with discipline,” he stated.
He pointed to WasteBanc, AltBank’s recycling initiative with the Lagos Waste Management Authority, and to Nigeria’s sovereign Sukuk programme as evidence that values-aligned finance can hold to commercial standards while connecting capital to identifiable, productive assets.
