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FG Confirms Significant Shortfall in H1 2025 Oil Revenue

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The federal government has confirmed suffering a significant shortfall in Nigeria’s oil revenue in the first half of the year despite surpassing the gross receipts recorded in the corresponding period of 2024.

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, made the disclosure in Abuja at a press briefing on Thursday.

Mr Edun stated that while oil price benchmark in the 2025 budget was $75 per barrel, average sales for the half year was $67 per barrel, revealing that average oil production per day was $1.67 million barrels against the budget projection of 2.06 million barrels per day.

Giving some updates on major sectors, the Minister said, “In the oil and gas sector, average production in the first half of 2025 was 1.67 million barrels per day.

“Significantly, that is below the 2.06 million barrels budgeted, and that is of note.

“The average crude price also in the budget was put at $75 per barrel; we’ve had an average price of $67 per barrel. We have maintained compliance with the OPEC quota, and as you can see from the figures I’ve given, there has been a revenue.”

He stated that in response to the shortfall, the federal government prioritised spending on sectors that directly impacted citizens and supported growth ambitions.

Mr Edun disclosed that despite the shortfall in oil revenue, gross revenue stood at 37.4 per cent in the first half of 2025, surpassing the performance recorded in the same period of 2024.

According to him, this signalled improved fiscal discipline and prudent resource management.

The finance minister explained that the states and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) now operated in a more robust fiscal space due to increased allocations from the Federation Account and other releases due to them.

Mr Edun said the states and FCT combined fiscal balance grew from N2.8 trillion in 2023 to N7.1 trillion in 2025, helping them to support capital projects in education, health, and other infrastructure.

Giving further insight into what states had been receiving, he said, “I would call it a build-up of funds that were due that hadn’t been paid to them, and under the law, under the regulations, have been made available to the states. And this, as we have said, has increased their surpluses such that the states in the first half of this year enjoyed budget surpluses of 3.1 per cent of GDP, which was way up, almost double previously the situation that they had with about 1.8 per cent of GDP surplus.

“So, in a nutshell, the funding to the states from the Federation Account has increased, which is what you would expect from the major measures that were taken to restore fiscal viability by removing a range of subsidies that were costing five per cent of GDP.

“That now flows through to the Federation Account and is reflected into higher payments to the states. Not just that, but adhering to the rule of law and the sanctity of contracts, previously owed funds were now being systematically made available.”

Providing further details on the activities of government, Mr Edun stated that the macroeconomic ecosystem had been stable, attributing the improved fiscal outlook to bold reforms, including the standing out of the Ways and Means overdraft funding by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

“There have been no debits to ways and means since early in this administration,” he said. “Following GDP rebasing, Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio now stands at 38.8 per cent, down from 52.1 per cent, providing greater fiscal headroom,” he added.

Stating that the government was not in default of any obligation, he stated that over N2 trillion was recently paid to contractors to clear outstanding capital budget obligations from 2024, with no pending liabilities outside the formal payment process.

He said the focus was on the timely release of funds for 2025 capital projects, adding that part of the government’s inclusive growth strategy was to strengthen state finances.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Brent Climbs to $71 on Fears of US Military Action Against Iran

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The price of Brent crude oil grade went up by 0.14 per cent or 10 cents to $71.76 per barrel on Friday as investors worried about US military action against Iran, as President Donald Trump presses the Islamic Republic to halt nuclear weapon development.

However, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil grade finished at $66.39 a barrel after going down by 4 cents or 0.06 per cent.

The market awaited developments in the struggle between Iran and the US after President Trump said, “We have to make a meaningful deal, otherwise bad things happen,” referring to Iran.

The main concern for the crude oil market is that military activity will lead to a supply disruption if Iran decides to block shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. About 20 per cent of the world’s oil consumption passes through that waterway. Conflict in the area could limit oil entering the global market and push up prices.

There is the fear that a potential US military campaign in Iran could disrupt shipping in the Middle East are also adding upward pressure on supertanker rates.

Traders and investors ramped up purchases of call options on Brent crude in recent days, betting on higher prices.

Also supporting oil were reports of falling crude stocks and limited exports in the world’s biggest oil-producing and exporting countries. US crude inventories dropped by 9 million barrels as refining utilisation and exports climbed, an Energy Information Administration (EIA) report showed on Thursday.

Markets were also considering the impact of ample supply, with talks of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) leaning towards a resumption in oil output increases from April.

Eight OPEC+ producers – Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman will meet on March 1. The eight members raised production quotas by about 2.9 million barrels per day from April to the end of December 2025, equating to about 3 per cent of global demand, and froze further planned increases for January through March 2026 because of seasonally weaker consumption.

Meanwhile, the oil market shrugged off a US Supreme Court decision ruling unconstitutional President Trump’s use of a law to levy tariffs in national emergencies.

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Economy

PENGASSAN Kicks Against Tinubu’s Executive Order on Oil, Gas Revenues

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) has faulted the Executive Order signed by President Bola Tinubu on oil and gas revenues.

President Tinubu this week signed the Executive Order, titled The Upstream Petroleum Operations Cost Efficiency Incentives Order (2025), to safeguard and enhance oil and gas revenues for the Federation, curb wasteful spending, eliminate duplicative structures in the sector, and redirect resources for the benefit of the Nigerian people.

However, at a press conference in Abuja, PENGASSAN president, Mr Festus Osifo, argued that the tax incentives granted to oil companies by the President may not help in the reduction of cost if insecurity is not addressed.

“The Executive Order signed by the President yesterday is a direct attack on the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA)—specifically Sections 8, 9, and 64,” Mr Osifo said.

“What the President has done is use an Executive Order to set aside a law of the Federal Republic of Nigeria. This is deeply troubling. What signal are we sending to investors and the international community?

“We are effectively telling them that the law of the land can be set aside by a simple executive decree. This is an aberration and should never have happened.”

According to a statement by the presidential spokesperson, Mr Bayo Onanuga, the President signed the EO in pursuance of Section 5 of the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as amended).

The Executive Order is anchored on Section 44(3) of the Constitution, which vests ownership, control, and derivative rights in all minerals, mineral oils, and natural gas in, under, and upon any land in Nigeria—including its territorial waters and Exclusive Economic Zone—in the Government of the Federation.

The directive seeks to restore the constitutional revenue entitlements of the federal, state, and local governments, which were removed in 2021 by the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA).

According to Mr Onanuga, the PIA created structural and legal channels through which substantial Federation revenues are lost via deductions, sundry charges, and fees.

Under the current PIA framework, NNPC Limited retains 30 per cent of the Federation’s oil revenues as a management fee on Profit Oil and Profit Gas derived from Production Sharing Contracts, Profit Sharing Contracts, and Risk Service Contracts. Additionally, the company retains 20 per cent of its profits for working capital and future investments.

The federal government considers the additional 30 per cent management fee unjustified, as the 20 per cent retained earnings are already sufficient to support NNPC Limited’s functions under these contracts.

Moreover, NNPC Limited also retains another 30 per cent of profit oil and profit gas under the Frontier Exploration Fund, as stipulated in sections 9(4) and (5) of the PIA.

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Economy

Customs to Fast-Track Cargo Clearance at Lekki Deep Sea Port

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Comptroller-General of the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS), Mr Adewale Adeniyi, has unveiled a Green Channel initiative at the Lekki Deep Sea Port as part of efforts to simplify cargo clearance, reduce delays, and improve operational efficiency for port users.

The launch marks a major step in customs’ drive to enhance trade facilitation through technology and stakeholder collaboration.

Speaking at the event in Lagos, Mr Adeniyi said the initiative was introduced by the Lekki Deep Sea Port and approved by NCS management to address persistent challenges in container stacking and examination at major ports, which often slow cargo processing.

“This particular intervention helps to move containers right from the vessel into a dedicated place where customers can have access. And between the time the container moves from the vessel to this particular place, it is tracked,” he said.

The customs boss explained that the Green Channel is designed to ensure seamless cargo movement through a dedicated corridor with minimal bureaucratic obstacles, enabling faster turnaround time for importers and other stakeholders.

He described the initiative as a product of mutual trust between the agency and its stakeholders, stressing that compliance and cooperation are essential to its success.

“What we have done today is a product of the kind of trust that we have invested in our stakeholders and the confidence that we also have in them, that they would do this in the spirit of compliance and trade facilitation,” he said.

Mr Adeniyi added that beyond easing port operations, the Green Channel supports Nigeria’s broader economic objective of building a more competitive trade environment, noting that the initiative is expected to reduce the cost and time required to do business, ultimately boosting revenue generation for the service.

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