By Adedapo Adesanya

The oil market appreciated by more than 1 per cent to settle at a two-week high on Monday, after the US and China agreed to temporarily slash tariffs, raising hopes of an end to the trade war between the world’s two biggest economies.

The price of Brent crude went up by $1.05 or 1.6 per cent to $64.96 per barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude gained 93 cents or 1.5 per cent to settle at $61.95 per barrel.

The US and China, the world’s largest and second-largest economies, respectively, agreed to slash tariffs on each other as they seek to end their trade war.

Speaking after talks with Chinese officials in Geneva, US treasury secretary Scott Bessent told reporters the two sides had reached a deal for a 90-day pause on measures.

This meant the US is reducing its 145 per cent tariff to 30 per cent on Chinese goods while China agreed to reduce its 125 per cent retaliatory tariffs to 10 per cent on US goods.

In recent weeks, investors worried the US-China trade war could depress economic growth and oil demand. Also, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) decided to boost oil output by more than previously expected.

Crude prices went higher on hopes the world’s two biggest oil consumers can end a trade war that has stoked fears of recession.

In Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer in OPEC, oil giant Aramco said it expects oil demand to remain resilient this year and sees further upside if the US and China resolve their trade dispute.

In Iraq, OPEC’s second largest producer, crude exports were on track to decline to around 3.2 million barrels per day  in May and June, which would be a significant reduction from previous months.

Halt in production as Norwegian energy firm Equinor said it temporarily halted output from the Johan Castberg oilfield in the Arctic Barents Sea to make repairs also offered support.

Ongoing talks between the US and Iran over the c0untry’s nuclear program could pressure crude prices, since Iran is OPEC’s third largest producer and any nuclear deal could reduce sanctions on Iran’s exports.

Russian crude supply could also increase on global markets if U.S.-brokered talks result in peace between Russia and Ukraine.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he was ready to meet Russia’s Vladimir Putin in Turkey on Thursday after US President Donald Trump told him publicly to immediately accept proposal of direct talks.

In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi warned Pakistan that it would target “terrorist hideouts” across the border again if there were new attacks on India. This could have effects as India is the world’s third biggest consumer of oil.

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s inflation rate is projected to average 22.1 per cent in 2025, according to the World Bank.

The global lender disclosed this in a statement published Monday on its website, following the formal launch of the latest Nigeria Development Update (NDU) report in Abuja.

It noted that this is as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN’s) tight monetary stance begins to anchor inflation expectations and restore confidence in macroeconomic management.

The biannual report, titled Building Momentum for Inclusive Growth, assesses recent economic trends and policy responses in Nigeria, with a focus on how to consolidate stability and stimulate inclusive growth.

According to the World Bank, while Nigeria’s economic indicators are showing signs of improvement, particularly growth, revenue, and fiscal balance, price pressures remain elevated.

“The report further adds that Inflation has remained high and sticky but is expected to fall to an annual average of 22.1% in 2025, as a sustained tight stance firmly establishes monetary policy credibility and dampens inflationary expectations,” the statement read.

Nigeria’s inflation has been driven by the removal of fuel subsidies, exchange rate unification, high logistics and energy costs, and food supply disruptions.

However, the report noted that recent monetary tightening by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is beginning to slow inflation momentum.

Recall that Nigeria earlier this year rebased its Consumer Price Index (CPI) updating the base year to 2024 from 2009. As a result the inflation dropped to 24.48 per cent in January 2025 from December 34.80 per cent.

In February, the rate slowed to 23.18 per cent and then increased to 24.23 per cent in March 2025.

The NDU also noted that Nigeria’s economy grew by 4.6 per cent year-on-year in Q4 2024, pushing full-year growth to 3.4 per cent, the strongest non-COVID performance since 2014.

The country’s fiscal deficit narrowed significantly from 5.4 per cent of GDP in 2023 to 3.0 per cent in 2024, supported by a surge in consolidated government revenues from N16.8 trillion (7.2 per cent of GDP) in 2023 to an estimated N31.9 trillion (11.5 per cent of GDP) in 2024.

The World Bank said the improving macroeconomic outlook now presents Nigeria with a “historic opportunity” to reposition public spending and deliver meaningful development outcomes.

“Nigeria has made impressive strides to restore macroeconomic stability. With the improvement in the fiscal situation, Nigeria now has a historic opportunity to improve the quantity and quality of development spending; investing more in human capital, social protection, and infrastructure,” said Mr Taimur Samad, Acting World Bank Country Director for Nigeria.

He added that public resource allocation must shift away from previous unsustainable patterns and instead address the country’s significant development gaps.

The NDU recommended a private sector-led growth strategy that focuses on improving infrastructure, increasing access to finance, enhancing competition, and undertaking reforms in productive sectors to support job creation and inclusive development.

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