Economy
Fitch Downgrades Nigeria to ‘B’ on Weak Fiscal Buffers
By Dipo Olowookere
Nigeria’s Long-Term Foreign-Currency Issuer Default Rating (IDR) has been downgraded to ‘B’ from ‘B+ by Fitch Ratings, with the outlook negative.
In a statement issued on Monday, Fitch noted that the lowering of the rating was due to the pressures on the country’s external finances caused by crash in the prices of crude oil at the global market by coronavirus pandemic.
The Brent crude, under which Nigeria’s oil is priced, sold around $23 per barrel some weeks ago and only last week hit just over $30 when news hit town that Saudi and Russia will likely have discussions about the market situation.
Nigeria depends largely on crude oil sales for external revenue and according to Fitch, the intensifying external pressures raise risks of disruptive macroeconomic adjustment given the country’s “precarious monetary and exchange rate policy setting and lack of fiscal buffers.”
It said the shock will also raise government debt and interest payment-to-revenue ratios from already particularly high levels and lead to a renewed economic recession.
Fitch said the shock will worsen the overvaluation of the Naira and remedial policy actions taken by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which it stressed will not “suffice to address deteriorating external imbalances.”
The CBN allowed the exchange rate on the Investor and Exporter Window, on which the bulk of foreign-currency (FC) transactions is held, to depreciate by 6.7 percent since mid-January and devalued the official exchange rate by 15 percent in March, the rating agency stated.
According to Fitch, Nigeria’s vulnerability to short-term capital outflows is high given the sizeable stock of portfolio investments in short-term Naira debt securities, equivalent to $27.7 billion (6.9 percent of GDP) at end-2019 and representing around 72 percent of FC reserves at the time.
“Of these liabilities, $14.7 billion was in non-resident investments in the CBN’s open-market operation bills that were attracted by high interest rates and hedging instruments offered to non-residents at non-economic costs under the CBN’s policy of stabilising the exchange rate.
“Continued reluctance to adjust the exchange rate, portfolio outflows and a wide current-account deficit (CAD) will lead FC reserves to fall to 2.5 months of current account payments at end-2020 under our forecasts, well below the historical ‘B’ median of 3.8 months, and their lowest level since 1994.
“We estimate that the CAD will widen to a record level of 4.9 percent of GDP in 2020, exceeding the historical ‘B’ median of 4.3%, under our assumption of only modest depreciation of the Naira.
“Nigeria’s long-standing current account surplus shifted to a deficit of 4.2 percent of GDP in 2019 on an upsurge in imports, chiefly of equipment goods.
“We project the CAD to narrow to 1.8 percent in 2021 reflecting partial recovery of oil prices to $45/b, import compression and tighter restrictions on FC access,” the agency said.
It further said the country’s external finances are highly vulnerable to a further fall in international oil prices below the current forecasts of about $34/b.
It noted that despite the expiry of production caps under the OPEC+ agreement, there is little scope to ramp up Nigeria’s oil production beyond the current assumption of 2.1 mbpd given capacity constraints and the build-up of a global supply glut on oil markets.
“Under a stable oil production assumption, a $10 drop in average Brent benchmark prices below our current projection would cause the CAD to widen by an additional 1.6 percent of GDP.
“Furthermore, the domestic oil sector’s operational breakeven is around $25-30/barrel, based on official estimates, meaning production cuts are likely should oil prices continue to hover well below $30/barrel,” it said.
Fitch further said the collapse in oil revenues and the slowdown in economic activity will take a toll on the government’s already weak fiscal revenues.
“This will be partly cushioned by the devaluation of the official exchange rate, which will boost fiscal oil revenues in Naira terms.
“In addition, the fall in international fuel prices will allow the government to eliminate the implicit fuel subsidy. Nigeria’s fiscal breakeven oil price is high, at $133/barrel under our estimates, given particularly low non-oil fiscal intakes.
“We project the general government (GG) deficit will widen to 5.8 percent of GDP (federal government, FGN: 3.1 percent) in 2020 from 3.8 percent (FGN: 2.4 percent) in 2019.
“There is limited scope for consolidation through spending cuts given fiscal rigidity from payroll and interest outlays, which will represent 150 percent of the FGN’s revenues and two-thirds of its expenditures in 2020. Cuts to other operational outlays and capital expenditures will be largely offset by higher spending on health services and support to sectors affected by the pandemic shock,” it stated.
Economy
Nigeria’s New Tax System Looking Like Extortion—Peter Obi
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The presidential candidate of the Labour Party in the 2023 general elections, Mr Peter Obi, has likened Nigeria’s new tax system to extortion because it fails to clearly state how it intends to deliver “tangible benefits to citizens.”
In a post on X, formerly Twitter on Tuesday, the former Anambra State Governor, therefore, called for the suspension of the implementation of the tax laws, most especially after a renowned global accounting firm, KPMG, highlighted some errors in the laws.
Last week, KPMG Nigeria in a note on its website pinpointed some issues in the new laws, warning that they could discourage investments in the country.
However, the government reacted via the chairman on the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, saying the agency misunderstood the laws.
This week, officials of KPMG had a meeting with the chairman of the National Revenue Service (NRS), Mr Zacch Adedeji, on the issue.
For Mr Obi, “The fact that it took private meetings between the National Revenue Service and KPMG for these serious issues to be acknowledged” makes it more alarming.
He posited that, “It is now undeniable that the tax laws have been fundamentally altered, and even a firm as esteemed as KPMG has pinpointed 31 critical problem areas, from drafting errors to glaring policy contradictions and administrative gaps. This revelation should prompt every responsible government to take immediate action.”
“If experts require closed-door discussions to navigate the complexities of our tax laws, what hope does the average Nigerian have of comprehending the obligations being imposed on them?
“Taxation transcends mere fiscal policy; it represents a social contract between the government and its citizens. You cannot enforce a social contract that isn’t understood or trusted.
“Globally, tax policies are justified by delivering tangible benefits to citizens: improved healthcare, better educational systems, job opportunities, infrastructure development, and social safety nets. This is what the social contract signifies.
“In Nigeria, the narrative is all about how much more the government seeks to extract, rather than what it is prepared to offer in return. A tax system devoid of clear public benefits isn’t reform; it is, quite frankly, extortion,” he stated.
Speaking further, he said, “Typically, months, if not years, are dedicated to consulting with businesses, workers, and civil society before tax drafts are presented for public discussion, with the ramifications clearly explained. People must be informed not only about their financial contributions but also about the benefits that will ensue. This is how legitimacy is cultivated. Yet, in Nigeria, we have seen no such public consultations or discussions regarding the final tax laws, leaving ordinary citizens completely in the dark about both the regulations and the benefits of the taxes they’re expected to pay.
“We have hastily pursued collection without securing a consensus and imposed enforcement without providing adequate explanations. Even after the removal of subsidies, Nigerians remain in limbo, waiting for tangible benefits or relief. Instead, they are grappling with skyrocketing food prices, exorbitant transport costs, dwindling purchasing power, and escalating poverty levels.
“Before we have even begun to address these issues, we are being thrust into an expansive new tax regime, riddled with inconsistencies and producing 31 alarming red flags from a leading global accounting firm. This is not the hallmark of responsible governance.
“Without trust, taxation feels like punishment. Without clarity, it breeds confusion. Without evident public value, it amounts to robbery.
“Nigeria cannot afford to place further burdens on its already struggling citizens. What we need is a government that listens, communicates effectively, and prioritises building national consensus. This is the only viable path to genuine reform, unity, growth, and shared prosperity.”
Economy
Possible Iranian Crude Disruptions Lift Brent Crude to $65 Per Barrel
By Adedapo Adesanya
Brent crude hit $65.47 per barrel on Tuesday after it appreciated by 2.5 per cent or $1.60 as the prospect of disruptions to Iranian crude exports overshadowed possible increased supply from Venezuela.
In the same vein, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude settled at $61.15 a barrel after climbing $1.65 or about 2.8 per cent during the session.
The oil market is looking at some developments in members of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Iran and Venezuela as well as talks on Russia’s war in Ukraine and US interest in taking control of Greenland.
Iran is facing its biggest anti-government demonstrations in years which have lasted for more than two weeks.
The country autocratic government has cracked down on protesters with about 2,000 people killed and thousands more arrested.
The development has drawn a warning from US President Donald Trump of possible military action. The American President said on Monday that any country that does business with Iran would be subjected to a tariff rate of 25 per cent on any business conducted with the United States.
China, the world’s largest oil importer, is the biggest customer for Iranian crude. Others include United Arab Emirates (UAE), Turkey, Iraq, and the European Union (EU).
Reuters reported that there is a possibility of tighter supplies ahead after four Greek-managed oil tankers were struck by unidentified drones on Tuesday. The tankers were in the Black Sea on the way to load oil at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal off the Russian coast.
Drone attacks at or near the CPC terminal have intensified in recent weeks and have affected the loading and departure schedules of Kazakhstan’s crude cargoes.
Kazakhstan’s oil output fell sharply at the end of November and early December after damage at the CPC export terminal disrupted flows.
Markets are also grappling with concern over additional crude supply hitting the market with a resumption in Venezuelan exports.
After the ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, President Trump said last week that the South American producer is set to hand over to the US as much as 50 million barrels of oil subject to Western sanctions.
Economy
Nigeria Offers Three-Year Retail Bonds for 15.396%
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Low-income earners and other retail investors willing to lock in their funds in government securities have been given another opportunity to purchase the FGN savings bonds.
The Debt Management Office (DMO), which sells the debt instrument on behalf of the Nigerian government, is calling for subscription for the January exercise.
It is the first for 2026 and according to the agency’s programme, the retail bonds would be sold in the first week of each of the months of this year.
The organisation is offering the bonds in two tenors of two years and three years, with the former being sold at a coupon of 14.396 per cent per annum and the latter at 14.396 per cent annum.
Subscription for the exercise opened on Monday, January 12, 2026, and will close on Friday, January 16, 2026, a circular from the DMO confirmed.
Business Post reports that interest on the bonds would be paid to bondholders every quarter till maturity.
Investors can purchase the retail bonds at a unit price of N1,000 subject to a minimum subscription of N5,000 and in multiples of N1,000 thereafter, subject to a maximum of N50 million.
The bonds are backed by the full faith and credit of the Federal Government of Nigeria and charged upon the general assets of Nigeria
They qualify as securities in which trustees can invest under the Trustee Investment Act. They also qualify as government securities within the meaning of Company Income Tax Act (CITA) and Personal Income Tax Act (PITA) for exemption for pension funds, amongst other investors.
The bonds further qualify as a liquid asset for liquidity ratio calculation for banks.
After they are sold to investors, they would be listed on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited to allow for trades for early exit if the holder intends to liquidate before maturity.
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