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Fitch Lowers Angola’s 2018 GDP Growth Forecast to 1.5%

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By Dipo Olowookere

Consulting company, Fitch Solutions, has disclosed that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Angola will drop to 1.5 percent from the 2.8 percent it earlier projected for the year 2018. The firm attributed this to the growing tendency for the declining trend witnessed in oil production.

“We have now updated our estimates of Angolan GDP growth to 1.5 percent in 2018, a representative difference from the previous 2.8 percent we had anticipated, and we expect GDP to grow by 2.3 percent in 2019, instead of the previous 2.6 percent estimate, whereas for 2020 we’ll estimate it to hit 2.6 percent, which is higher than the previous estimate of 2.2 percent for that year”, Fitch Solutions announced.

On a memo sent to investors, some other Fitch analysts from the consulting company, which have no ties to the analysis in question, have said that “although Angola will be most likely out of the recession trend for the next few quarters, the economic recovery will be weaker than expected previously, mostly due to the decline in oil production in the country.”

The government had estimated GDP growth to arrive at a 2.2 percent threshold, in comparison to the 4.6 percent estimate they’d announced previously, whereas the IMF predicted GDP to get to 2.3 percent this year.

Private consumption and public investment are adding up to the economy and “they shall make the economic growth move positively in the following years, with great potential coming from foreign investment and international financial aid”, said the analysts, referring to a programme being negotiated in October with the International Monetary Fund, which will add €1.5 billion to the state’s treasury.

However, they alert that “in the long-term, the high exposure of Angola to the volatility of the oil sector will put the country under pressure and could induce the GDP growth estimates to go lower.”

The decreasing trend in GDP estimations emerged after “the announcement, by the Office for National Statistics, of data that shows the GDP had decreased by 2.2 percent in the first quarter of the year, after it had already registered a negative growth of 2.6 percent in 2016 and 2.5 percent in 2017”, the analysts also noted.

Data has been updated also to accompany the changes in terms of estimates of oil production, which Fitch announced would go down over the next few years: “A big increase in production is no longer expected, given that the oil wells ready for exploitation will not be as much as desired” they concluded, stating that production is expected to go down by 1.9 percent.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via [email protected]

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Economy

NASD Exchange Extends Winning Streak by 1.70%

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NASD OTC stock exchange

By Adedapo Adesanya

The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange rallied by 1.70 per cent on Thursday, June 25, after three price gainers overpowered the two price losers recorded at the close of business.

Consequently, the market capitalisation of the trading platform increased by N43.79 billion to N2.618 trillion from N2.574 trillion, and the NASD Security Index (NSI) improved by 72.96 points to close at 4,362.32 points, in contrast to Wednesday’s 4,289.36 points.

Yesterday, the price advancers were led by Nipco Plc, which chalked up N31.79 to close at N349.76 per unit versus the preceding day’s N317.97 per unit. Okitipupa Plc gained N18.00 to end at N298.00 per share versus the previous session’s N280.00 per share, and Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc went up by N7.11 to N86.79 per unit from N79.68 per unit.

On the flip side, Nitrox Industrial Gases Plc crumbled by 32 Kobo to close at N21.09 per share compared with the N21.41 per share it closed at midweek, and Food Concepts Plc depreciated by 25 Kobo to N2.51 per unit from N2.76 per unit.

During the session, the value of securities traded by investors went down by 86.7 per cent to N10.9 million from the preceding session’s N82.9 million, and the volume of securities dropped 84.9 per cent to 10.9 million units from the previous 82.9 million, while the number of deals grew by 84.2 per cent to 35 deals from 19 deals.

At the close of trades, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units sold for N8.4 billion, trailed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units valued at N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 68.4 million units exchanged for N4.7 billion.

GNI Plc was also the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units traded for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million.

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Economy

Bears Plunge NGX All-Share Index by 0.64% to 235,074.54 Points

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NGX All-Share Index

By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited further suffered a 0.64 per cent decline on Thursday as the bears tightened their grip on the bourse.

For the second straight session, all the key sectors of Customs Street pointed south, with the energy counter down by 5.22 per cent. The insurance index slumped by 2.59 per cent, the banking space depreciated by 0.28 per cent, and the consumer goods segment moderated by 0.06 per cent, while the industrial goods sector was flat, though with a marginal fall.

As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) contracted by 1,493.71 points to 233,580.83 points from 235,074.54 points, and the market capitalisation retreated by N959 billion to N149.888 trillion from N150.847 trillion.

Investor sentiment remained weak after a negative market breadth index, as there were 21 price gainers and 34 price losers.

Aradel and Deap Capital went down by 10.00 per cent each to N1,575.00 and N4.05, respectively. Trans-Nationwide Express fell by 9.90 per cent to N3.64, Regency Alliance slipped by 9.57 per cent to N85 Kobo, and C&I Leasing dipped by 9.48 per cent to N28.12.

Conversely, Red Star Express grew by 9.60 per cent to N24.55, Legend Internet expanded by 9.09 per cent to N6.00, Neimeth appreciated by 7.10 per cent to N8.30, Abbey Mortgage Bank rose by 5.45 per cent to N8.70, and Ellah Lakes improved by 4.65 per cent to N9.00.

Yesterday, market participants traded 393.7 million equities valued at N19.2 billion in 45,813 deals compared with the 488.1 million equities worth N20.9 billion transacted in 46,239 deals recorded a day earlier, implying a shortfall in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 19.34 per cent, 8.13 per cent, and 0.92 per cent, respectively.

The most active stock for the session was Access Holdings with a turnover of 39.1 million units worth N896.2 million, Chams traded 24.5 million units valued at N96.5 million, Fidelity Bank sold 24.1 million units for N436.9 million, Sterling Holdings exchanged 23.8 million units valued at N182.2 million, and Zenith Bank transacted 18.9 million units worth N2.1 billion.

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Economy

Naira Gains 0.03% Against Dollar at NAFEX, Bitcoin Drops Below $60,000

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yuan-naira $10bn

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira recorded a marginal gain of 43 Kobo or 0.03 per cent against the United States Dollar on Wednesday, June 25, in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) to sell for N1,380.11/$1 compared with the previous day’s N1,380.54/$1.

However, the Nigerian currency lost N3.21 against the Pound Sterling in the official market during the session to close at N1,818.84/£1, in contrast to Wednesday’s exchange rate of N1,815.63/£1, and against the Euro, it fell by N3.21 to trade at N1,566.84/€1 versus midweek’s value of N1,563.63/€1.

In the same vein, the Nigerian Naira depreciated against the Dollar at the GTBank FX deck yesterday by N3 to sell for N1,383/$1 compared with the preceding session’s value of N1,380/$1, and at the black market window, it remained unchanged at N1,395/$1.

Interbank FX turnover at the NFEM window surged by about 56 per cent day-on-day to close at $195.371 million from $125.588 million reported on Wednesday, according to data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

The Naira continues to feel the impact of rising FX payments and a strong US Dollar amid a sharp slowdown in forex market interventions by the central bank, with more than six weeks of no support for the local currency.

Nigeria’s foreign reserves increased further to $51.142 billion, while oil prices continue to be held in the $70 range by developments in the geopolitical scene.

Meanwhile, in the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin sank below $60,000 as more than $1 billion in crypto positions were liquidated over the past 24 hours, with longs accounting for $842 million of the damage. About 148,500 traders were wiped out. The largest single position was a $38 million bitcoin-dollar bet on Hyperliquid. It led at $489 million in liquidations and dropped 2.8 per cent to sell at $59,862.61.

Ethereum (ETH) crashed by 5.5 per cent to $1,554.57, Ripple (XRP) declined by 4.8 per cent to $1.03, Cardano (ADA) fell by 4.3 per cent to $0.1433, Dogecoin (DOGE) dropped 3.4 per cent to sell at $0.0745, TRON (TRX) slid 2.2 per cent to $0.3215, Binance Coin (BNB) slumped by 1.8 per cent to $561.34, and Solana (SOL) dipped by 0.3 per cent to $62.94, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) sold flat at $1.00 each.

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