Economy
Flour Mills of Nigeria: Revision to Estimates
We revise 2018 forecasts for FLOURMILL following H1, wherein EBITDA and net profit were impacted by strong FX-linked net operating gains and double-digit revenue growth, which more than offset both weaker y/y gross margin and higher finance costs.
While we look for relatively (to H1-18) weaker earnings in H2-18, we expect they would be stronger compared to H2-17. Overall, we raise our EBITDA and net profit forecasts by 10% and 72% respectively for 2018F.
Upward revision to estimates was conservative (flattish and 2% respectively) for 2019-2020F. On net, we raise our TP for the stock by 35% to NGN38.89 and maintain HOLD rating.
We increase revenue growth forecast for 2018 to 8.9% (previously 7.6%) on stronger run rate of 17% in H1. The waning impact of prices on revenue was visible in Q2 growth rate (9.8%, the slowest pace since Q4-15/16), and management said – in obvious acknowledgement of the little room for price increases – it will leverage on increased sales volumes and marketing activities to boost top-line going forward.
We retain revenue growth forecast of 9.4% for 2019-2020, on continued resilience of the Food division, and stronger growth in the Agro-Allied and Packaging divisions, amidst the gradually recovering consumer purchasing power and spending from general elections.
Downside risks to volume, however, are (1) potentially intense competition (on improving dollar liquidity and FGN supply of subsidized fertilizers) and (2) the gridlock in Apapa (which negatively affects both the movement of goods out of FLOURMILL’s factory and customers’ access to the factory), on the back of the ongoing repair works, and the consequent congestion of the seaport.
We revise net operating gain forecast for 2018F to NGN7.7 billion (previously –NGN1.4 billion), following the strong formation (NGN5.1 billion) over H1, on the revaluation of liabilities (via FX hedges using NDFs and forwards) and biological assets (the sugar plantation). These items are excluded from our estimates for 2019-2020.
Notwithstanding the 331 bps q/q improvement in gross margin in Q2, we revise 2018 estimate lower by 69bps to 12.01% on slower-than-expected recovery (-237 bps in H1). While noting the risk from selling prices (given outlook for competition) and input cost (wheat prices for delivery in 12 months are higher by 14% for November contracts) pressures, we also point to tailwinds from (1) stable-strengthening exchange rate and (2) better energy mix from improved gas availability
We revise 2018F finance cost forecast lower by 4%, following the reduction of borrowings to NGN188.2 billion, from end-2017FY NGN241.6 billion. The modest revision of our forecast, including for 2019-2020, notwithstanding the sizeable reduction of outstanding loans, reflects the increased average interest rate (+226 bps since March ending) on more expensive debt mix. FLOURMILL’s management recently announced plans to raise NGN70 billion via Medium Term Notes. We have not factored this into our model, as management stated at the Q2 results analysts call that the signing will be in 2018, “depending on the evolution of interest rates.”
Economy
Seven Equities Boost NASD OTC Securities Exchange by 1.24%
By Adedapo Adesanya
The third trading week of 2025 ended on a positive note at the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange, with seven equities on the platform inspiring a 1.24 per cent growth.
Consequently, the market capitalisation of the bourse increased by N21.56 billion during the five-day trading week to N1.075 trillion from the N1.053 trillion quoted in the preceding week (Week 2) as the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) expanded by 37.98 points to 3,111.91 points from the 3,073.93 points it ended in the preceding week.
In the period under review, the volume of transactions went down by 42.1 per cent to 9.45 million units from the 16.30 million units in the previous week, as the value of trades declined by 53.1 per cent to N48.4 million from the N104.11 million, with these transactions completed in 122 deals involving 15 different stocks.
Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc gained 50 per cent in the week to close at 36 Kobo per share versus 34 Kobo per share, Mixta Real Estate Plc increased by 20 per cent to end at N2.58 per unit compared with the previous week’s N2.15 per unit, and Okitipupa Plc rose by 10 per cent to N39.59 per share from N35.99 per share.
Further, UBN Property Plc grew by 10 per cent to N2.20 per unit from N2.02 per unit, Newrest Asl Plc jumped by 9.9 per cent to N31.38 per share from N28.53 per share, FrieslandCampina Wamco Plc surged by 3.7 per cent to N39.65 per unit from N38.22 per unit, and 11 Plc advanced by 0.3 per cent to N256.00 per share from N255.31 per share.
FrieslandCampina Wamco Plc topped the activity chart last week by value with with N0.030 billion, 11 Plc recorded N0.009 billion, Central Security Clearing System (CSCS) Plc raked in N0.004 billion, IGI Plc followed with N0.002 billion, and Geo-Fluids Plc recorded N0.002 billion.
However, IGI Plc was the most traded instrument by volume with 7.5 million units, FrieslandCampina Wamco Plc transacted 0.77 million units, UBN Property Plc recorded 0.38 million, Geo-Fluids Plc traded 0.37 million units, and CSCS Plc posted 0.16 million units.
Economy
Investors Reduce Exposure to Nigerian Stocks by 52% in One Week
By Dipo Olowookere
To minimise their risks, investors trimmed their exposure to Nigerian stocks by about 52.07 per cent last week, data from Customs Street has revealed.
At the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited in the period under review, the market participants transacted 2.252 billion shares worth N58.831 billion in 63,657 deals compared with the 4.698 billion shares valued at N85.043 billion traded in 72,562 deals a week earlier.
Business Post reports that Universal Insurance, GTCO, and AIICO Insurance dominated the activity chart in the week with 468.315 million equities sold for N9.007 billion in 3,568 deals, contributing 20.79 per cent and 15.31 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively
At the close of business, the financial services sector recorded a turnover of 1.371 billion stocks worth N22.274 billion in 26,114 deals, contributing 60.86 per cent and 37.86 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.
The consumer goods space transacted 253.536 million shares worth N15.244 billion in 8,869 deals, and the services industry exchanged 193.424 million equities valued at N931.795 million in 4,716 deals.
In the five-day trading week, the bourse posted 33 price gainers versus 51 in the previous week, 57 price losers versus 39 a week earlier, and 62 equities remained unchanged, in contrast to 62 recorded in the preceding week.
Neimeth was the biggest price advancer in the period under consideration with a 31.42 per cent appreciation to close at N3.43, SCOA Nigeria expanded by 20.39 per cent to N2.48, Northern Nigeria Flour Mills grew by 19.54 per cent to N54.45, Livestock Feeds soared by 17.62 per cent to N5.94, and Dangote Sugar surged by 16.67 per cent to N38.50.
On the flip side, Universal Insurance slumped by 1923 per cent to 63 Kobo, Royal Exchange declined by 18.35 per cent to 89 Kobo, Regency Assurance shrank by 17.78 per cent to 74 Kobo, Sovereign Trust Insurance lost 16.67 per cent to close at N1.10, and Dangote Cement crumbled by 16.46 per cent to N400.00.
The market came under selling pressure in the week, resulting in the All-Share Index (ASI) and the market capitalisation tumbling by 2.94 per cent and 2.26 per cent each to 102,353.68 points and N62.851 trillion, respectively.
In the same vein, all other indices finished lower except the MERI Value, consumer goods, growth and sovereign bond indices, which appreciated by 0.70 per cent, 1.33 per cent, 0.15 per cent, and 0.04 per cent, respectively while the ASeM index closed flat.
Economy
MRS Oil, Heyden, Ardova to Sell Dangote Petrol at N970 Per Litre
By Dipo Olowookere
The three major partners of the Dangote Refinery in the Lekki area of Lagos, MRS Oil Nigeria, Heyden and Ardova Plc, will retail premium motor spirit (PMS), otherwise known as petrol, at its stations across the country at N970 per litre.
This information was revealed by Dangote Refinery, owned by one of Africa’s richest businessmen, Mr Aliko Dangote.
The three independent oil marketers entered into a bulk-purchasing agreement with the oil facility, which has the capacity to refinery about 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day.
The deal, first sealed by MRS Oil, ensured that it retailed fuel at its petrol stations at N935 per cent litre.
However, last week, Dangote Refinery increased its ex-depot price from N899.50 per litre to N950 per litre due to a rise in the price of crude oil to $80 per litre in the global market from about $72 per barrel.
In a statement on Sunday made available to Business Post, Dangote Refinery said, “All our partners, including Ardova, Heyden, and MRS Holdings, will offer petrol to Nigerians at a retail price of N970 per litre nationwide.
“We have absorbed the increased logistics costs to guarantee uniform pricing across the 36 states of the federation and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT).”
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