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Economy

Flour Mills of Nigeria: Revision to Estimates

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Flour Mills of Nigeria

By Cordros Research

We revise 2018 forecasts for FLOURMILL following H1, wherein EBITDA and net profit were impacted by strong FX-linked net operating gains and double-digit revenue growth, which more than offset both weaker y/y gross margin and higher finance costs.

While we look for relatively (to H1-18) weaker earnings in H2-18, we expect they would be stronger compared to H2-17. Overall, we raise our EBITDA and net profit forecasts by 10% and 72% respectively for 2018F.

Upward revision to estimates was conservative (flattish and 2% respectively) for 2019-2020F. On net, we raise our TP for the stock by 35% to NGN38.89 and maintain HOLD rating.

We increase revenue growth forecast for 2018 to 8.9% (previously 7.6%) on stronger run rate of 17% in H1. The waning impact of prices on revenue was visible in Q2 growth rate (9.8%, the slowest pace since Q4-15/16), and management said – in obvious acknowledgement of the little room for price increases – it will leverage on increased sales volumes and marketing activities to boost top-line going forward.

We retain revenue growth forecast of 9.4% for 2019-2020, on continued resilience of the Food division, and stronger growth in the Agro-Allied and Packaging divisions, amidst the gradually recovering consumer purchasing power and spending from general elections.

Downside risks to volume, however, are (1) potentially intense competition (on improving dollar liquidity and FGN supply of subsidized fertilizers) and (2) the gridlock in Apapa (which negatively affects both the movement of goods out of FLOURMILL’s factory and customers’ access to the factory), on the back of the ongoing repair works, and the consequent congestion of the seaport.

We revise net operating gain forecast for 2018F to NGN7.7 billion (previously –NGN1.4 billion), following the strong formation (NGN5.1 billion) over H1, on the revaluation of liabilities (via FX hedges using NDFs and forwards) and biological assets (the sugar plantation). These items are excluded from our estimates for 2019-2020.

Notwithstanding the 331 bps q/q improvement in gross margin in Q2, we revise 2018 estimate lower by 69bps to 12.01% on slower-than-expected recovery (-237 bps in H1). While noting the risk from selling prices (given outlook for competition) and input cost (wheat prices for delivery in 12 months are higher by 14% for November contracts) pressures, we also point to tailwinds from (1) stable-strengthening exchange rate and (2) better energy mix from improved gas availability

We revise 2018F finance cost forecast lower by 4%, following the reduction of borrowings to NGN188.2 billion, from end-2017FY NGN241.6 billion. The modest revision of our forecast, including for 2019-2020, notwithstanding the sizeable reduction of outstanding loans, reflects the increased average interest rate (+226 bps since March ending) on more expensive debt mix. FLOURMILL’s management recently announced plans to raise NGN70 billion via Medium Term Notes. We have not factored this into our model, as management stated at the Q2 results analysts call that the signing will be in 2018, “depending on the evolution of interest rates.”

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Stock Exchange Recovers 0.52%

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exposure to Nigerian stocks

By Dipo Olowookere

After going down for two straight trading sessions, the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited returned to winning ways on Thursday, closing higher by 0.52 per cent.

Renewed bargain-hunting rescued Customs Street from the snarl of the fowler, as the bears were not ready to let go.

Data obtained by Business Post from the bourse confirmed this, as investor sentiment remained bearish after a negative market breadth index. There were 31 price gainers and 35 price decliners yesterday.

Also, the sustained selling pressure weakened three of the five indices tracked by this newspaper, with the insurance space down by 0.71 per cent, the banking counter down by 0.45 per cent, and the energy industry down by 0.29 per cent.

However, the industrial goods sector appreciated by 1.88 per cent, while the consumer goods index improved by 0.25 per cent.

As a result, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 1,010.23 points to 196,908.76 points from 195,898.53 points, and the market capitalisation expanded by N649 billion to N126.399 trillion from N125.750 trillion.

FTN Cocoa topped the advancers’ chart after it grew by 10.00 per cent to N6.27, Fidson surged by 9.97 per cent to N105.35, Deap Capital advanced by 9.89 per cent to N7.00, Caverton rose by 9.40 per cent to N6.40, and Livestock Feeds increased by 9.30 per cent to N7.05.

On the flip side, Eterna lost 10.00 per cent to trade at N42.30, Omatek deflated by 10.00 per cent to N2.52, SCOA Nigeria crashed by 9.94 per cent to N22.65, Fortis Global Insurance contracted by 9.24 per cent to N1.08, and Sovereign Trust Insurance slipped 9.09 per cent to N2.10.

During the session, market participants traded 549.8 million equities worth N44.7 billion in 55,465 deals versus the 671.3 million shares valued at N26.1 billion transacted in 58,792 deals on Wednesday.

This indicated that the value of transactions soared by 71.26 per cent, while the volume of trades and the number of deals decreased by 18.10 per cent and 5.66 per cent apiece.

Fortis Global Insurance finished the day as the busiest stock with 32.2 million units valued at N34.8 million, Access Holdings traded 28.1 million units worth N701.0 million, First Holdco exchanged 27.7 million units for N1.4 billion, Zenith Bank transacted 27.5 million units worth N2.6 billion, and Dangote Cement sold 26.9 million units valued at N20.7 billion.

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Economy

Decentralised Development Initiatives Key to Unlocking Economic Opportunities—Bagudu

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abubakar bagudu

By Dipo Olowookere

The Minister of Budget and Economic Planning, Mr Abubakar Bagudu, has stressed the key role decentralised initiatives play in unlocking economic opportunities across the country.

Speaking in Abuja on Wednesday when he received members of the Crop, Aquaculture, Livestock Farmers and Value Chain Economic Actors Association of Nigeria (CALFAN), the Minister noted that initiatives like the Renewed Hope Ward Development Programme of President Bola Tinubu concentrate development planning at the ward level, which is the lowest administrative unit in Nigeria’s governance structure.

He welcomed the decision of the farmers’ group to collaborate with the federal government to accelerate the programme’s implementation.

Mr Bagudu explained that the project aims to enable communities to identify their development opportunities rather than relying solely on a top-down approach, adding that Nigeria has 8,809 wards, each with unique economic prospects that can be accessed through targeted interventions.

Under the initiative, wards will determine their priority economic opportunities, after which the federal government, state governments, local authorities, and development partners will work together to provide the necessary support.

According to him, Nigeria’s constitutional framework assigns development responsibilities to the three tiers of government, but in practice, these roles have not always been well coordinated, often resulting in duplication, inefficiencies, and interruptions in development initiatives.

“Our belief is that every ward in Nigeria is an acre of diamonds waiting to be uncovered. Each community has its own strengths and potential, and development strategies must reflect these distinctive qualities,” he said.

In his remarks, the president of CALFAN, Mr Aliyu Abdulraheem, outlined the association’s proposal to serve as a field-level implementation partner for the Renewed Hope Ward Development Programme.

He highlighted CALFAN’s extensive grassroots structure, including Ward-Level Extension Service Offices (WESOs) and a digital platform that supports real-time beneficiary identification, community mobilisation, data collection, and monitoring of development activities.

He disclosed that the proposed platform would facilitate economic mapping of rural communities, infrastructure assessments, digital surveys, and real-time data collection to support evidence-based policy decisions and programme monitoring.

The CALFAN boss highlighted the inclusive approach that encompasses the entire agricultural value chain, including farmers, input suppliers, processors, transporters, traders, and service providers.

Unveiled in 2025 by President Tinubu, the Renewed Hope Ward Development Programme aims to reset development planning by boosting economic activities at the ward level through collaboration among the federal, state, and local governments.

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Economy

NMDPRA Grants Six Petrol Import Permits to Stabilise Market

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NMDPRA fee regulations

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has granted import permits for Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) or petrol to six depot owners and petroleum marketers.

This step comes as the federal government moved to ensure stability and balance in the country’s downstream fuel sector after it was widely reported that the country suspended the issuance of petrol import licenses for a second straight month

The regulator recently issued these permits to six importers, with each authorised to import approximately 30,000 metric tonnes of the fuel into the country to help cushion against the effects of escalating conflict in the Middle East.

This development also occurs against the backdrop of ongoing discussions about supply concentration, with recent data showing that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery supplied roughly 92 per cent of Nigeria’s petrol in February.

At present, the Dangote refinery is the sole facility in Nigeria producing petrol, while most modular refineries primarily focus on diesel output.

The Crude Oil Refineries Association of ​Nigeria (CORAN) also confirmed that none have been issued so far in March, signalling ​a shift towards prioritising local output. However, this has since changed, spurred by the latest development.

Industry statistics show that local refining provided an average of about 36.5 million litres per day that month, with imports adding roughly 3 million litres daily, resulting in a total supply of around 39.5 million litres per day.

According to reports, until recently, no petrol import permits had been issued under the current NMDPRA leadership, suggesting that the new approvals signal a deliberate policy shift to preserve supply diversity and adaptability as the domestic market continues to develop.

Nigeria’s average daily petrol consumption fell to 56.9 million litres per day ​in February 2026, ​down from 60.2 ⁠million litres in January.

In February, the Dangote Refinery supplied 36.5 million litres of petrol and 8 million litres of ​diesel to the local market, leaving a daily deficit of 20 million litres that was covered by previously imported stock.

According to NMDPRA, these volumes ​were sufficient, ⁠leading to its earlier decision to withhold import licenses.

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