Economy
Global Oil Demand to Fall from 2025–IEA
By Adedapo Adesanya
The International Energy Agency (IEA) has said that global oil demand is expected to slow from 2025 onwards due to the improvement of fuel efficiency and the increased acceptance of electrified vehicles but is unlikely to peak in the next twenty years.
The Paris-based agency which advises Western governments on energy policy, said in its annual World Energy Outlook for the period to 2040 that demand growth would continue to increase even though there would be a marked slowdown in the 2030s.
The agency’s central scenario – which incorporates existing energy policies and announced targets – is for demand for oil to rise by around one million barrels per day (bpd) on average every year to 2025, from 97 million bpd in 2018.
Demand is then seen increasing by 0.1 million bpd a year on average during the 2030s to reach 106 million bpd in 2040.
“There is a material slowdown after 2025, but this does not lead to a definitive peak in oil use,” the IEA said, citing increased demand from trucks and the shipping, aviation and petrochemicals sectors.
Oil use in passenger cars is, however, seen peaking in the late 2020s as drivers switch to electric vehicles.
The IEA projects there will be about 330 million electric cars on the road by 2040, up from an estimate of 300 million in last year’s outlook and this will see a reduction of 4 million bpd of oil use, compared to the 3.3 million bpd forecast previously.
In term of supply, the largest increases in production are expected to come from the world’s current biggest oil producer, the United States, the world’s current biggest producer, as well as Iraq and Brazil.
US tight crude oil production is also projected to hit 11 million bpd in 2035 from 6 million bpd in 2018.
The share of oil production by members of the OPEC plus Russia is seen falling to 47 percent for much of the next ten years, a level not seen since the 1980s.
“The oil price required to balance supply and demand in this scenario edges higher to nearly 90 dollars a barrel in 2030 and 103 dollars a barrel in 2040,” the report said of the IEA’s central scenario.
The IEA sees primary energy demand growing by a quarter by 2040 with renewable energy accounting for half of the rise and gas for 35 percent.
The IEA’s central scenario also does not see energy-related carbon dioxide emissions peaking by 2040 due to economic growth and population increases.
An expected rise of just over 100 million tonnes a year between 2018 and 2040, although lower than the average rate of increase since 2010 of 350 million tonnes a year, would not be enough of a reduction to curb global temperature rises, the IEA said.
Economy
Strategic Crypto Investing Today: Investor SJMine With AI-Powered Market Intelligence
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Economy
OTC Exchange Begins Week With 0.39% Loss
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange fell by 0.39 per cent on Monday, January 12, after it closed higher in every trading day of last week.
The loss recorded yesterday took out N8.5 billion from the unlisted securities market, closing at N2.184 compared with the preceding session’s closing value of N2.193 trillion.
In the same vein, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) went down by 14.2 points during the session to 3,651.48 points from the 3,665.68 points it finished last Friday.
The decline was influenced by three securities, with Afriland Properties Plc down by N1.55 to end at N14.75 per unit compared with the previous N16.30 per unit, and NASD Plc declining by N1.00 to N59.00 per share from N6.00 pr share, as Food Concepts Plc slid by 34 Kobo to finish at N3.06 per unit versus N3.40 per unit.
On the flip side, three securities gained weight, with FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc appreciating by N6.23 to N68.70 per share from N62.47 per share, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc added 45 Kobo to close at N43.07 per unit versus N42.62 per unit, and Geo-Fluids Plc gained 2 Kobo to settle at N6.84 per share versus N6.82 per share.
During the session, the trading volume soared by 826 per cent to 4.03 million units from 434,845 units, the trading value skyrocketed by 579.1 per cent to N46.8 million from N6.9 million, and the number of deals jumped by 118.2 per cent to 48 deals from 22 deals.
When trading activities closed for the day, CSCS Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 1.5 million units exchanged for N57.6 million, followed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 6.4 million units valued at N43.3 million, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 379,749 units worth N24.4 million.
In terms of volume, Geo-Fluids Plc led with 6.4 million units sold for N43.3 million, trailed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 2.9 million units traded for N1.9 million, and CSCS Plc with 1.5 million units valued at N57.6 million.
Economy
Naira Appreciates to N1,421/$1 at Official Market
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira appreciated against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Monday, January 12 by N1.71 to trade at N1,421.46/$1, in contrast to the preceding session’s N1,423.17/$1.
However, the local currency further depreciated against the Pound Sterling in the same market window yesterday by N3.81 to close at N1,915.84/£1 compared with last Friday’s price of N1,912.03/£1 and lost N3.55 on the Euro to quote at N1,661.68/€1 versus N1,658.13/€1.
In the same vein, the domestic currency depleted against the Dollar at the GTBank FX desk during the trading session by N4 to to settle at N1,431/$1 compared with the previous trading day’s rate of N1,427/$1 and closed flat in the black market at N1,490/$1.
The appreciation of the Nigerian currency against its American counterpart in the official market was supported by foreign portfolio investors’ inflow with support from non-bank corporate supply, leaving it within the N1,350/$1 – N1,450/$1.
“We anticipate that the CBN will emphasise exchange rate stability over rapid appreciation through 2026, supported by prudent policy execution and effective reserve management,” Coronation Merchant Bank research said in an update.
Despite a differential against other currencies, market analysts noted that stronger external inflows from FPIs, improving current account dynamics, and more disciplined FX management by the authorities, will give the Naira stronger footing.
As for the cryptocurrency market, most tokens tracked by this newspaper were largely down with traders seeing the market settle into equilibrium after leverage was flushed and liquidity thinned.
Market analysts noted that with spot demand soft and no clear institutional catalyst, price discovery continues to shift to where thinner liquidity and narrative trades can overwhelm fundamentals.
Litecoin (LTC) lost 4.6 per cent to trade at $76.25, Solana (SOL) depreciated by 1.6 per cent to $140.23, Cardano (ADA) slid by 1.4 per cent to $0.3914, Ripple (XRP) slumped by 0.9 per cent to $2.05, Ethereum (ETH) went down by 0.8 per cent to $3,128.74, and Dogecoin (DOGE) decreased by 0.5 per cent to $0.1392.
On the flip side, Binance Coin (BNB) appreciated by 0.3 per cent to $908.87, and Bitcoin (BTC) increased by 0.1 per cent to $91,916.73, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.
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