Economy
World Oil Demand Forecast Remains Steady at 2.33mbpd—OPEC
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has stated that the global oil demand forecast for 2023 was steady for a third month.
In its report, the producer group says world oil demand in 2023 will rise by 2.33 million barrels per day (bpd) or 2.3 per cent. This was virtually unchanged from the 2.32 million barrels per day forecast last month.
OPEC noted that the potential Chinese growth that lent the support would be offset by downside economic risks elsewhere, such as the US debt ceiling.
“Minor upward adjustments were made due to the better-than-expected performance in China’s economy, while other regions are expected to see slight declines due to economic challenges that are likely to weigh on oil demand,” OPEC said in the report.
Chinese oil demand is now expected to rise by 800,000 barrels per day, OPEC said, up from the 760,000 barrels per day forecast last month, adding to a recovery after strict COVID-19 containment measures were scrapped.
The global growth figure, however, was unchanged for a third straight month, and OPEC left its 2023 economic growth forecast at 2.6 per cent, citing potential downside risks such as inflation and increasing debt payments from higher interest rates.
“In addition, the US debt ceiling issue has so far not been resolved, a matter that could have economic consequences,” OPEC said in its economic commentary.
A new round of oil output cuts announced on April 2 by some members of OPEC+, which comprises OPEC, Russia and other allies, has failed to boost oil prices that further interest rate hikes and concern over the US debt ceiling have hit.
This is the last monthly OPEC report before OPEC+ holds its next policy meeting on June 4.
The report also showed OPEC’s oil production fell in April, reflecting the impact of earlier output cuts pledged by OPEC+ to support the market as well as some unplanned outages.
For November last year, with prices weakening, OPEC+ agreed to a 2 million barrels per day reduction in its output target – the largest since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. The April 2 voluntary cuts add to this total.
OPEC said its April output fell by 191,000 barrels per day to 28.60 million barrels per day, with declines in Iraq and Nigeria.
Iraq’s northern exports were halted, while some of Nigeria’s exports were disrupted by a labour dispute involving ExxonMobil workers.
The report kept its forecast that non-OPEC supply would rise by 1.4 million barrels per day in 2023 and flagged factors that could limit or curb supplies, such as investment levels and the war in Ukraine.
While overall investment levels in non-OPEC supply in 2023 are expected to be just above pre-pandemic levels, they are still short of a $747 billion high reached in 2014 as oil companies focus on capital discipline, OPEC said.
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The Nigerian maritime sector may soon witness the inflow of $600 million in investment from APM Terminals.
On the sidelines of the ongoing Africa CEO Forum in Kigali, Rwanda, the Regional President of APM Terminals for Africa-Europe, Mr Igor van den Essen, informed President Bola Tinubu that his company was interested in deepening its investment in Nigeria.
According to a statement issued by the Special Adviser to the President of Information and Strategy, Mr Bayo Onanuga, the investment would be deployed in Apapa port modernisation, logistics infrastructure, and long-term private-sector investment in Nigeria’s maritime sector.
President Tinubu welcomed the investments, emphasising that Nigeria is repositioning itself for greater competitiveness through ongoing economic reforms and infrastructure modernisation.
He said the country is determined to move beyond structural bottlenecks and outdated systems, stressing the need for advanced technology, faster cargo processing, and improved operational efficiency across the nation’s ports.
He emphasised that Nigeria possesses the market scale, talent base, and economic potential to support globally competitive maritime and logistics infrastructure investments and called on other investors to take advantage of Nigeria’s reform outcomes.
Earlier, Mr Igor van den Essen lauded President Tinubu’s reform agenda and policy direction, which had strengthened investor confidence and created renewed momentum for long-term infrastructure investments.
He described Nigeria as a strategic stronghold within its African operations, referencing over 20 years of collaboration and substantial existing investments in the country’s port ecosystem.
He reaffirmed his company’s commitment to expanding investments in Nigeria and disclosed plans to support the development of world-class terminal infrastructure and technology-driven port operations.
He also commended Mr Tinubu for establishing the National Single Window (NSW), which has streamlined trade procedures, improved Customs coordination, and reduced delays in cargo clearance.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Dangote Petroleum Refinery has filed a new lawsuit against the federal government over the fuel import licences issued to marketers and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited.
Last week, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) issued licences to six marketers for the importation of 720,000 metric tonnes of Premium Motor Spirit, known as petrol.
The marketers are NIPCO, AA Rano, Matrix, Shafa, Pinnacle, and Bono. The development comes amid claims by the NMDPRA that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery now supplies over 90 per cent of Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption.
Dangote said in the filing that the licences issued undermine its operations and contravene the law, which it argues allows imports only when domestic supply falls short.
Named in the suit against the country is the Attorney General and Minister of Justice, Mr Lateef Fagbemi. The federal government can only be sued via his office.
The case signals renewed tensions almost a year after Dangote withdrew an earlier lawsuit challenging similar licences. That case sought to nullify import permits issued to the NNPC and several traders.
The new filing asks the Federal High Court in Lagos to set aside import permits issued or renewed by the NMDPRA, arguing they breach an earlier order to maintain the status quo.
Dangote ended the earlier lawsuit in July 2025 without explanation, leaving unresolved questions over competition and supply in one of Africa’s largest fuel markets.
Nigeria has long relied on petrol imports due to underperforming state refineries. However, Dangote’s 650,000 barrels per day capacity refinery was touted to end that dependence.
Despite the presence of the facility, imports have continued to cover supply gaps as the refinery ramps up output.
The NMDPRA did not issue a single import licence in the first quarter of 2026 because the Dangote refinery had the capacity to meet Nigeria’s petrol demand.
Business Post gathered that only upon intervention by President Bola Tinubu were the licenses granted for the second quarter by the NMDPRA.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has revealed that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate in April 2026 rose to 15.69 per cent, beating analysts’ expectations of 15.95 per cent, as the fallout from the Iran war continued to affect the global economy.
The statistical office on Friday showed the headline inflation rate for April on a month-on-month basis was 2.13 per cent, while the food inflation rate in the review month was 16.06 per cent on a year-on-year basis.
The rise in prices comes as an energy price shock stemming from the continued conflict in the Middle East, which stoked food prices and affected relative exchange rate stability.
According to the NBS, “this can be attributed to the rate of change in the average prices of the following products: Millet whole grain, yam flour, ginger (Fresh), beef, garri, tam tuber, pepper (Fresh), cray fish, cassava tuber, Beans, Irish Potatoes, tomatoes (fresh), wheat grain (Sold loose), soya beans, guinea corn, plantain, carrots (Fresh) etc.”
“The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending April 2026, relative to the previous twelve-month average, was 17.55%, which was 17.05% points lower than the average annual rate of change recorded in April 2025 (34.60%),” the NBS said.
Analysts at Coronation Research had earlier projected that the inflation rate in Nigeria would be at 15.95 per cent on a year-on-year basis in April 2026. It added that the expected inflation rate signals a return toward the underlying disinflation trajectory and could be a pivotal data point in shaping Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) deliberations at the next policy meeting.
It also expects food inflation to further ease, as food and non-alcoholic beverages remain the dominant contributor to headline CPI, accounting for about 40 per cent of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket.
The MPC of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will meet this month, the first since the Iran War started in late February, to review core monetary policies and possibly make adjustments.
The committee reduced the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points from 27.0 per cent to 26.5 per cent at its 304th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in February.
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