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Insecurity and Soaring Food Prices: Why CBN’s MPC Must Target the Real Enemy Despite Favourable Macroeconomic Tailwinds

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CBN MPC meeting rate

By Blaise Udunze

Obviously, one would say that the macroeconomic indicators are finally pointing in the right direction, yet, daily realities for households and businesses tell a very different story because Nigeria stands at a delicate intersection. No doubt on paper, inflation is easing, the naira is stabilising, and sovereign ratings have improved; but food prices remain painfully high, purchasing power continues to deteriorate, and insecurity is ravaging the agricultural value chain while ensuring that any progress in inflation moderation remains fragile.

As the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) convenes its 303rd Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as its final meeting of the year on 24-25 November, the dilemma before it is clear: Should it respond to improving macroeconomic data with further monetary easing, or should it recognise that the true enemy of price stability is not merely monetary but structural, deeply rooted in insecurity and collapsing food supply?

The reality confronting the nation is that, despite the favourable macroeconomic tailwinds, Nigeria’s biggest inflationary threat is insecurity-induced food inflation, which remains largely unaddressed. Until the MPC anchors its decisions around this core challenge, monetary policy will continue to chase shadows.

A Fall in Inflation, but Not in Hardship

The National Bureau of Statistics’ latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report revealed that inflation improved for the second consecutive month, falling sharply from 18.02 percent in September to 16.05 percent in October 2025, which is the lowest in 44 months. This moderation was driven by a new CPI base year and some easing in food prices.

Whilst the headline inflation has slowed, month-on-month inflation increased from 0.72 percent to 0.93 percent, underlining persistent price pressure at the household level. Nigerians are still struggling to pay more for food, transport, energy, housing, and essential services.

Obviously, the Organised Private Sector (OPS) welcomed the drop but quickly cautioned that it does not reflect real-life conditions.

Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, summarised this contradiction perfectly, “The sharp moderation in October inflation represents a significant win for macroeconomic stability. However, the full welfare benefits are yet to be felt due to persistent structural constraints, especially in food supply, transportation, energy, housing, and essential services.”

These “structural constraints,” in reality, are overwhelmingly traced to insecurity, which is the silent force disrupting agricultural production and distribution across Nigeria.

Food Inflation: The Heart of the Crisis

Presently, food inflation remains Nigeria’s most damaging and persevering price problem. Even with the October headline easing, food prices remain abnormally high.

Eke Ubiji, the Director-General of the Nigerian Association of Small and Medium Enterprises (NASME), flagged the inflation data as disconnected from reality, “Send people to the market now. A half-bag of rice goes for between N30,000 and N40,000. Before, a full bag was about N20,000. So, are we moving forward or backwards?”

This is not a mere anecdote; it is the lived experience of millions. Food inflation has remained structurally high for nearly five years, and the root cause is not monetary expansion; it is insecurity.

Across key food-producing belts like Benue, Plateau, Niger, Kaduna, Katsina, Zamfara, Taraba, Kebbi, and Sokoto, farmers cannot access farmlands due to the following adverse factors:

–       Banditry

–       Terrorist attacks

–       Herdsmen conflicts

–       Kidnapping-for-ransom

–       Destruction of crops and storage facilities

–       Extortion and illegal “harvest taxes” by criminal groups

This is why the MPC’s decisions, no matter how sound, have limited impact. Monetary tightening cannot stop gunmen from attacking farmers. Interest rate adjustments cannot clear gridlocked rural roads. Liquidity controls cannot fix the collapse of rural markets emptied by chaos.

Femi Egbesola, the President of the Association of Small Business Owners of Nigeria, echoes this lived tension, “All of this has not translated to tangible results in the lives of households and small businesses. It has been very tough, and it is even getting tougher.”

Without resolving insecurity, food inflation will continue to undermine every macroeconomic gain.

OPS: Nigerians Don’t Feel the Relief

Across all private-sector groups, one message is constant, inflation numbers are falling, but hardship remains high.

–       SMEs are shutting down due to high input costs.

–       Consumers’ purchasing power is collapsing.

–       Operational costs remain higher.

–       Food remains largely unaffordable.

According to Ubiji, there is no relationship between what is sustainable in the market and what they are quoting in their boardrooms.

This scepticism is rooted in the fact that food prices, by far the largest part of household spending, remain stubbornly high because insecurity continues to decimate supply.

Even the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) recognized that while there are “green shoots,” they are small and fragile.

LCCI President, Gabriel Idahosa, said, “A trend is being established… but Nigerians often doubt the inflation numbers because they do not see it on their dining table.”

The MPC must confront this reality: monetary policy cannot deliver price stability while insecurity is simultaneously destroying food production.

Improving Macroeconomic Indicators: A Window of Opportunity

Apparently, Nigeria’s macroeconomic fundamentals have improved significantly as inflation is moderating, FX liquidity is rising, the naira is strengthening, non-oil exports are growing, domestic production of refined petroleum is improving, S&P upgraded Nigeria’s sovereign credit outlook, and GDP grew by 4.2 percent in Q2 and is projected to record 3.6-3.9 percent in Q3.

No doubt, these are important achievements that create fiscal and monetary space for reforms. But favourable indicators cannot cover the fact that Nigeria is still battling a food inflation crisis fueled by worsening insecurity. If the MPC does not align its policy response with this structural reality, monetary policy may remain misaligned with on-ground economic forces.

What Analysts Expect at the November MPC Meeting

Ahead of the MPC meeting, analysts remain divided. Some are calling for further easing. Umar Abdulqadir of CFG Africa believed the MPC should cut by at least 50bps, citing sustained disinflation, improved FX liquidity, better food supply conditions, and lower risk premia after S&P upgrade. He argued that high lending rates were constraining SME credit access and that a cut would “stimulate investment and bolster economic recovery.”

Similarly, Afrinvest’s Damilare Asimiyu projects a 25-50bps cut, citing favourable inflation trajectory, improved macro data, global central banks adopting mild dovish tones, and strong GDP growth. He believes cautious easing is justified.

Meanwhile, other analysts suggest a hold at 27 percent. Jessica Ifada of Rostrum Investment & Securities insists that the MPC should maintain September’s rate cuts, which are still filtering through the economy. CRR reduction has increased bank liquidity, and banks have largely met recapitalisation thresholds, while festive-season inflationary pressures are imminent.  She further says that the revised policy corridor already guides short-term rates close to the MPR, limiting the need for immediate policy action.

Meanwhile, another set of analysts is calling for aggressive easing (up to 200bps). On Nairametrics’ “Drinks and Mics,” Rencap Asset Management’s Arnold Dublin-Green and Nairametrics CEO Ugodre Obi-Chukwu argue that MPC should cut rates by 200bps, pointing to decreasing yields across fixed-income instruments, lower inflation, and improved macro stability.

But Here Is the Real Issue: Monetary Policy Cannot Fix Insecurity

Regardless of the MPC’s decision, whether it cuts by 50bps, 200bps, or holds, Nigeria’s biggest inflationary threat remains structural insecurity. Three facts are undeniable:

  1. Over 60 percent of Nigeria’s inflation is driven by food inflation
  1. Food inflation is overwhelmingly driven by insecurity in farming communities.
  1. No monetary policy tool like MPR, CRR, OMO, or interest-rate corridor can resolve insecurity.

Until Nigeria secures its food-producing regions:

–       Farmers will stay away from farmlands.

–       Food supply will remain inadequate.

–       Transport costs will remain elevated.

–       Market prices will continue to rise.

–       Inflation will remain structurally high.

The MPC can only do so much with macro tools. The real work lies in addressing the insecurity choking Nigeria’s food supply chain. 

What the MPC Must Do Differently

  1. Overtly recognize insecurity as a core inflation driver

The MPC must move beyond generic references to “structural challenges” and specifically identify insecurity as the primary threat to price stability.

  1. Collaborate with security agencies and governors

Price stability is impossible without coordinated policy across security, agriculture, and transportation ministries.

  1. Recommend federal and state investments in food-producing regions, such as:

–       Secured farming clusters

–       Military-protected agro-corridors

–       Subsidised insurance for farmers in high-risk zones

–       Rural road rehabilitation

  1. Prioritise credit schemes for agricultural security because credit without safety is meaningless.
  1. Strengthen data collaboration

Many inflation-relevant data points, including farm output, rural insecurity, and transport disruptions, are outside the CBN’s traditional purview. It needs deeper data integration with:

–       Ministry of Agriculture

–       Ministry of Interior

–       Security agencies

–       State governments

–       Farmer associations

The MPC Must Fight the Real Enemy

Nigeria’s improving macroeconomic metrics are encouraging, but they shade a deeper crisis. Structural insecurity choking the nation’s food supply remains as the true enemy of price stability is not monetary. The MPC cannot continue to focus exclusively on interest rates while overlooking the underlying forces driving food inflation. Until insecurity is tackled, Nigeria will continue to experience high food prices, collapsing purchasing power, SME closures, persistent inflation, and monetary policy disorganization.

The November meeting provides a historic opportunity for the MPC to shift its policy approach that recognises insecurity as a macroeconomic crisis, not a security issue alone.

Nigeria does not merely have a monetary policy problem. Nigeria has a food problem driven by insecurity. And until that problem is solved, macroeconomic gains will remain fragile and incomplete.

Blaise, a journalist and PR professional, writes from Lagos, can be reached via: [email protected]

Economy

LIRS Reminds Companies of Annual Tax Returns Filing Deadline

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Lagos Internal Revenue Service LIRS

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Companies operating in Lagos State have been reminded of their obligations to file their annual tax returns for the 2025 financial year on or before January 31, 2026.

This reminder was given by the Lagos State Internal Revenue Service (LIRS) in a statement made available to Business Post on Thursday.

In the notice signed by the chairman of the tax agency, Mr Ayodele Subair, it was stressed that filing the tax returns is an obligation as stipulated in the Nigeria Tax Administration Act (NTAA) 2025.

He explained that employers are required to file detailed returns on emoluments and compensation paid to their employees, as well as payments made to their service providers, vendors and consultants, and to ensure that all applicable taxes due for the year 2025 are fully remitted.

Mr Subair emphasised that filing of annual returns is a mandatory legal obligation, and warned that failure to comply will result in statutory sanctions, including administrative penalties, as prescribed under the new tax law.

According to Section 14 of the NTAA, employers are required to file detailed annual returns of all emoluments paid to employees, including taxes deducted and remitted to relevant tax authorities. Such returns must be filed and submitted not later than January 31 each year.

“Employers must prioritise the timely filing of their annual income tax returns. Compliance should be part of our everyday business practice.

“Early and accurate filing not only ensures adherence to the law as required by the Nigerian Constitution, but also supports effective revenue tracking, which is important to Lagos State’s fiscal planning and sustainability,” he noted.

The LIRS chief disclosed that electronic filing via the organisation’s eTax platform remains the only approved and acceptable mode of filing, as manual submissions have been completely phased out. This measure, he said, is aimed at simplifying and standardising tax administration processes in the state.

Employers are therefore required to submit their annual tax returns exclusively through the LIRS eTax portal: https://etax.lirs.net.

Dr Subair described the channel as secure, user-friendly, accessible 24/7, and designed to provide employers with a convenient and efficient means of fulfilling their tax obligations, advising firms to ensure that the tax identification number (Tax ID) of all employees is correctly captured in their filings, noting that employees without a Tax ID must generate one promptly to avoid disruptions during the filing process.

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How Investor Confidence Is Reshaping Africa’s Digital Business Landscape

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Digital Business Landscape

Africa’s business environment is undergoing a quiet but significant transformation. Over the past few years, investor confidence in African-focused digital companies has grown steadily, driven by stronger business fundamentals, improved technology infrastructure, and a deeper understanding of local markets. What was once viewed as a high-risk frontier is increasingly seen as a long-term growth opportunity with scalable returns.

This shift is evident in the types of startups attracting capital today. Investors are backing platforms that combine technology, recurring revenue models, and cross-border appeal—signaling a new phase in how digital businesses are built and funded across the continent.

The Evolution of Venture Capital in Africa

Early venture capital activity in Africa was largely experimental. Funding rounds were modest, timelines were short, and expectations focused on proof of concept rather than long-term scale. Today, the narrative has changed. Investors are deploying larger checks and looking beyond survival metrics toward sustainable growth, operational efficiency, and regional expansion.

Digital-first companies are particularly attractive because they can scale without heavy physical infrastructure. With mobile penetration rising and digital payments becoming more common, African startups now have access to broader audiences than ever before. This scalability has become a key selling point for investors seeking exposure to emerging markets without excessive operational complexity.

Why Digital Platforms Are Drawing Increased Attention

One notable trend is growing investment interest in digital entertainment and online platforms. These businesses benefit from high engagement, repeat usage, and diverse monetization opportunities. Unlike traditional industries, digital platforms can adapt quickly to consumer behavior and expand into new markets with relatively low marginal cost.

Recent investment activity reflects this shift. A clear example is the funding momentum around winna casino, which highlights how investors are backing tech-enabled platforms positioned for global reach rather than local limitation.

The significance of such deals goes beyond the individual company. They point to a broader willingness by investors to support African-linked digital businesses operating at the intersection of technology, finance, and entertainment.

Technology as a Driver of Business Scalability

Technology is no longer just an enabler—it is the core value proposition. Businesses that leverage automation, cloud infrastructure, and data-driven decision-making are better positioned to scale efficiently. This is particularly relevant in Africa, where legacy systems can slow down traditional business models.

Digital platforms reduce friction by offering faster transactions, better user experiences, and real-time insights. From an investor’s perspective, these efficiencies translate into lower operating risk and higher growth potential. Companies that build with scalability in mind from day one are more likely to secure follow-on funding and strategic partnerships.

Africa’s Changing Perception Among Global Investors

Global investors are increasingly reassessing Africa’s role in their portfolios. Rather than viewing the continent solely through the lens of risk, many now see demographic advantage, underpenetrated markets, and long-term consumer growth.

A growing body of international business analysis supports this outlook. Forbes, for instance, has highlighted why global investors are paying closer attention to African tech and digital businesses as part of broader emerging market strategies:

This change in perception is critical. It influences not only the volume of capital flowing into Africa but also the quality—bringing in investors with longer horizons, stronger networks, and deeper operational expertise.

The Importance of Governance and Trust

Despite the optimism, capital is not deployed blindly. Investors remain highly selective, particularly when it comes to governance, compliance, and transparency. Digital businesses operating in regulated or semi-regulated spaces are expected to demonstrate strong internal controls and responsible growth strategies.

For African startups, this means that trust has become a competitive advantage. Companies that invest early in governance structures, risk management, and user protection are better positioned to attract serious institutional capital. In the long term, this focus strengthens the overall business ecosystem.

What This Means for African Entrepreneurs

For founders, the evolving investment climate presents both opportunity and responsibility. Access to capital can accelerate growth, but it also raises expectations around execution, reporting, and accountability. Investors now expect African startups to operate at global standards while maintaining local relevance.

This environment rewards entrepreneurs who think beyond short-term gains and focus on building resilient, scalable businesses. Those who can balance innovation with discipline are more likely to thrive in an increasingly competitive funding landscape.

Looking Ahead

Africa’s digital economy is entering a more mature phase. Venture capital is no longer just fueling ideas—it is shaping business models, governance practices, and long-term strategies. As investor confidence continues to grow, digital platforms that demonstrate scalability, trust, and clear value propositions will define the next chapter of Africa’s business story.

For business leaders, policymakers, and investors alike, one thing is clear: Africa’s digital transformation is not a future promise—it is already underway, and capital is following conviction.

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Economy

Dangote Refinery Seeks Naira-For-Crude Policy Expansion

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Naira-for-Crude

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has called for the expansion of the federal government’s Naira-for-Crude policy, describing this initiative as a strong indication of support for domestic refining.

The newly appointed Managing Director of the oil facility, Mr David Bird, made this call during a press briefing at the refinery complex in Lagos, noting that the scheme has significantly contributed to stabilising the the local currency and should be expanded in Nigeria’s overall economic interest.

“I think it’s a great testimony to the level of government support that we get,” he said on Wednesday.

According to Mr Bird, between 30 and 40 per cent of the refinery’s current crude feedstock is sourced under the Naira-for-Crude arrangement, with ongoing monthly engagements between the refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to determine suitable crude grades.

“Let’s say between 30 and 40 per cent of our current crude diet is on the crude-for-naira programme. We engage with NNPC monthly on the grades to buy because there is a lot of variability in the Nigerian crude grades.

“So, we have a preference, we have a wish list, and we continue to work with government support to ensure we get the right allocations,” he explained.

Mr Bird noted that while the refinery is optimised for Nigerian crude, supply volumes fluctuate.

He said approximately 30 per cent of crude supply is obtained through the Naira-for-Crude programme, another 30 per cent from Nigerian crudes purchased on the spot market, while the remaining 40 per cent comes from international grades, adding that even at that, the refinery would welcome an expansion of the policy.

“We would always like to enhance the crude-for-naira programme. Even at that level, five cargoes a month, for example, it has contributed to the stabilisation of the naira enormously,” Bird said, in response to a question.

Mr Bird added that the refinery has the capacity to absorb additional crude volumes if allocations are increased, noting that continued engagement with NNPC and the federal government is ongoing.

“We would have the potential to take further grades if and when, and we continue to engage with NNPC and the government on further increasing that,” he said, pointing to global geopolitical uncertainties as a reason Nigeria should prioritise domestic crude supply.

“It is in the country’s interest to supply domestically, because geopolitically it’s a very volatile situation. If Venezuelan crude comes back on the market, for example, it is in Nigeria’s interest to secure an offtaker through domestic refining,” he said.

The Naira-for-Crude policy, which began in October 2024, allows local refineries to purchase crude oil from NNPC in Naira instead of US Dollars. This approach reduces pressure on foreign exchange, lowers transaction costs, stabilises the local currency, and strengthens domestic refining capacity.

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