Economy
JP Morgan Warns Nigeria’s Inflation May Hit 28%
By Adedapo Adesanya
The American investment bank, JP Morgan, has warned that Nigeria’s headline inflation would likely not slow down in the near term as it forecast that it could reach a high of 28 per cent by the end of the year.
The bank, in its market research document on the Nigerian economy titled, Reform pause rather than fatigue released over the weekend, showed that the rate would climb higher as the policies of President Bola Tinubu will impact the prices of goods and services in the country.
Last week, the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) said the country’s headline inflation hit an 18-year-high of 24.08 per cent in July, in contrast to 22.79 per cent in the prior month, spurred by surging food prices and energy costs.
The JP Morgan report noted that the July high inflation reading is early evidence of the impact of the fiscal and foreign exchange (FX) reforms, which will continue to push up the headline inflation in the coming months.
“Higher parallel market rates in recent weeks are likely to have an impact on August’s inflation reading and will be most noticeable in higher food and core prices,” the bank said in the document seen by Business Post.
As corrective measures, the lender advised that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) maintain the current monetary policy rate (MPR) at 18.75 per cent for the rest of the year. In July, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) raised the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, indicating that the aggressive tightening might be winding down.
JP Morgan lauded the Tinubu administration, saying that it has demonstrated commitment to economic reforms even though there seems to be a pace in the progress made since the inception of the current administration.
However, it warned that the era of subsidy payment may return with the government’s intention to freeze the price of fuel at its current level.
It, however, showed evidence that the government is currently not subsidising the commodity.
“This is because we estimate that at current average retail prices (NGN617/ltr), crude oil prices (US$85/barrel) and the parallel market exchange rate (900), authorities are not currently subsidising petrol,” the document quoted, adding that, “However, invariably, a further rise in these key variables and government’s insistence on keeping petrol prices flat will result in a return of subsidies.”
The bank also stressed that the pace of the reforms relating to fiscal adjustments and the FX market could be slow, given the significant inflationary pressure on the economy.
By Dipo Olowookere
The Nigerian equity market showed no signs of slowing down, as it further appreciated by 1.30 per cent on Friday on the back of sustained buying pressure.
Unlike the preceding sessions, investor sentiment was bullish yesterday after the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited ended with 43 price gainers and 26 price losers, implying a positive market breadth index, the first this week.
UPDC gained 10.00 per cent to close at N4.40, Academy Press also appreciated by 10.00 per cent to quote at N7.70, Haldane McCall improved by 9.97 per cent to N3.97, Zichis soared by 9.94 per cent to N15.60, and Wema Bank added 9.84 per cent to settle at N31.25.
Conversely, Meyer lost 9.92 per cent to sell for N16.80, Trans-Nationwide Express also crashed by 9.92 per cent to end at N7.90, C&I Leasing slipped by 8.53 per cent to N5.90, Omatek dipped by 7.34 per cent to N2.02, and eTranzact decreased by 5.28 per cent to N17.05.
When the bourse closed its doors to business, the All-Share Index (ASI) rose by 2,884.81 points to 225,722.49 points from 222,837.68 points, and the market capitalisation grew by N1.858 trillion to N145.335 trillion from N143.477 trillion.
A look at the activity chart showed that market participants transacted 627.6 million shares worth N44.5 billion in 55,232 deals during the trading day compared with the 667.9 million shares valued at N38.1 billion traded in 53,062 deals a day earlier.
This indicated that the volume of transactions went down by 6.03 per cent, the value of trades went up by 16.80 per cent, and the number of deals jumped by 4.09 per cent.
Access Holdings closed the session as investors’ toast, with a turnover of 75.6 million units worth N2.4 billion. UBA transacted 43.1 million units valued at N2.3 billion, Wema Bank exchanged 41.5 million units for N1.3 billion, Zenith Bank traded 38.4 million units valued at N5.2 billion, and Universal Insurance sold 29.5 million units for N35.9 million.
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
Mr Taiwo Oyedele has set some goals he intends to achieve as Nigeria’s Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy.
While taking over from his predecessor, Mr Wale Edun, on Thursday, the tax expert assured that he has no plans to overturn some of the reforms already put in place by the former occupier of the seat.
In a message on Friday, he emphasised that, “Our immediate task is to consolidate these gains, deepen ongoing reforms, and ensure they translate into tangible benefits for all Nigerians.”
He promised to ensure fiscal discipline by embracing transparent and prudent management of public resources, while also harmonising revenue administration, broadening the tax base, reducing the burden on the vulnerable population, and supporting economic growth.
Mr Oyedele further said his other strategic priorities include creating a predictable and investor-friendly environment anchored on policy coherence, consistency, and clarity; and aligning efforts across all tiers and institutions to maximise policy impact.
He also said efforts would be made to deepen collaboration with the private sector and other key stakeholders for data-driven policy design, co-implementation, and feedback for continuous improvement.
According to him, “Good policy design alone is not enough; success will be defined by execution. We are committed to disciplined implementation, accountability, and measurable results.”
“I look forward to working with colleagues across government, the private sector, and all Nigerians as we move from reform to result, accelerate growth and build a more stable, inclusive, and prosperous economy,” he stated.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange further appreciated by 0.23 per cent on Thursday, April 23, with the Unlisted Security Index (NSI) adding 8.99 points to close at 3,969.96 points against the previous day’s 3,968 points.
The rise in the share price of Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc by N2.86 to N69.34 per unit from N66.48 per unit raised the market capitalisation of the NASD bourse by N5.38 billion to N2.380 trillion from N2.375 trillion.
Yesterday, there were two price losers, led by Food Concepts Plc, which lost 29 Kobo to sell at N2.65 per share versus N2.94 per share, while UBN Property Plc dipped by 22 Kobo to N2.03 per unit from N2.25 per unit.
During the session, the volume of securities traded declined by 97.9 per cent to 451,522 units from 21.5 million units on Wednesday, the value of securities depreciated by 52.32 per cent to N23.6 million from N49.5 million, and the number of deals depreciated by 3.6 per cent to 27 deals from 28 deals.
At the close of business, Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by CSCS Plc with 59.5 million units exchanged for N4.0 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.8 million units traded for N1.9 billion.
GNI Plc also closed the day as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, trailed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with 400 million units sold for N1.2 billion.
-
Feature/OPED6 years agoDavos was Different this year
-
Travel/Tourism10 years ago
Lagos Seals Western Lodge Hotel In Ikorodu
-
Showbiz3 years agoEstranged Lover Releases Videos of Empress Njamah Bathing
-
Banking8 years agoSort Codes of GTBank Branches in Nigeria
-
Economy3 years agoSubsidy Removal: CNG at N130 Per Litre Cheaper Than Petrol—IPMAN
-
Banking3 years agoSort Codes of UBA Branches in Nigeria
-
Banking3 years agoFirst Bank Announces Planned Downtime
-
Sports3 years agoHighest Paid Nigerian Footballer – How Much Do Nigerian Footballers Earn