Economy
July Inflation to Drop to 11.01% from 11.23%—FSDH
By Dipo Olowookere
One of the leading investment research firms in Nigeria, FSDH, has predicted a marginal drop in the inflation rate for the month of July 2018.
The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is due to release the inflation rate for the month of July on Wednesday, August 15, 2018.
In the month of June 2018, the inflation rate moderated to 11.23 percent year-on-year and analysts at FSDH are saying this would further drop to 11.01 percent.
Economic expert at the company explained that the expected decrease in the inflation rate would be largely due to the base effect of the previous year with a slower increase observed in the price of some food items in July than in June.
The Food Price Index (FPI) published by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) for the month of July 2018 indicated that the index averaged 168 points in July 2018, 3.73 percent lower than the June value, and the first significant month-on-month decline since December 2017.
According to the FAO, all the sub-indices reflected a notable drop in values. The FAO Dairy Index fell by 6.59 percent from June 2018 as the prices of butter, cheese, skim milk powder and whole milk powder eased in July.
The FAO Sugar Price Index was down by 6.01 percent on the heels of reports on improved supply conditions in the main sugar producing region of India and Thailand.
The FAO Cereal Price Index was down by 3.58 percent, largely driven by weaker export quotations for maize, rice and wheat. The FAO Vegetable Oil Price Index was down by 2.88 percent, marking a two and half year low and the sixth consecutive month fall in the index.
This was as a result of abundant inventory levels coupled with a favourable outlook for global supply and weak export demand of soy and palm oil.
The FAO Meat Price Index was also down by 1.88 percent as prices of bovine, pig and poultry meat declined due to reduced demand.
According to FSDH, its analysis indicated that the value of the Naira depreciated marginally at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange (NAFEX), while it appreciated at the parallel market to end July 2018.
The value of the Naira depreciated by 0.03 percent to close at $/N361.20 at the NAFEX market while it appreciated by 0.84 percent at the parallel market to close at $/N359 to end July.
The general decline in the international prices of food coupled with the appreciation in the value of the Naira at the parallel market muted the prices of imported consumer goods in Nigeria between the two months under review.
The prices of most of the food items the firm monitored in July 2018 moderated compared with June, while a few items recorded price appreciation.
“The movement in the prices of food items during the month led to a 1.18 percent increase in our Food and Non-Alcoholic Index. This Index increased year-on-year by 12.57 percent, up from 248.82 points recorded in July 2017.
“We also observed an increase in the prices of Transport and Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels divisions between June and July 2018.
“We estimate that the increase in the Composite Consumer Price Index (CCPI) in July would produce an inflation rate of 11.01 percent, lower than the 11.23 percent recorded in June,” the Inflation Watch report released on Friday said.
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The Nigerian maritime sector may soon witness the inflow of $600 million in investment from APM Terminals.
On the sidelines of the ongoing Africa CEO Forum in Kigali, Rwanda, the Regional President of APM Terminals for Africa-Europe, Mr Igor van den Essen, informed President Bola Tinubu that his company was interested in deepening its investment in Nigeria.
According to a statement issued by the Special Adviser to the President of Information and Strategy, Mr Bayo Onanuga, the investment would be deployed in Apapa port modernisation, logistics infrastructure, and long-term private-sector investment in Nigeria’s maritime sector.
President Tinubu welcomed the investments, emphasising that Nigeria is repositioning itself for greater competitiveness through ongoing economic reforms and infrastructure modernisation.
He said the country is determined to move beyond structural bottlenecks and outdated systems, stressing the need for advanced technology, faster cargo processing, and improved operational efficiency across the nation’s ports.
He emphasised that Nigeria possesses the market scale, talent base, and economic potential to support globally competitive maritime and logistics infrastructure investments and called on other investors to take advantage of Nigeria’s reform outcomes.
Earlier, Mr Igor van den Essen lauded President Tinubu’s reform agenda and policy direction, which had strengthened investor confidence and created renewed momentum for long-term infrastructure investments.
He described Nigeria as a strategic stronghold within its African operations, referencing over 20 years of collaboration and substantial existing investments in the country’s port ecosystem.
He reaffirmed his company’s commitment to expanding investments in Nigeria and disclosed plans to support the development of world-class terminal infrastructure and technology-driven port operations.
He also commended Mr Tinubu for establishing the National Single Window (NSW), which has streamlined trade procedures, improved Customs coordination, and reduced delays in cargo clearance.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Dangote Petroleum Refinery has filed a new lawsuit against the federal government over the fuel import licences issued to marketers and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited.
Last week, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) issued licences to six marketers for the importation of 720,000 metric tonnes of Premium Motor Spirit, known as petrol.
The marketers are NIPCO, AA Rano, Matrix, Shafa, Pinnacle, and Bono. The development comes amid claims by the NMDPRA that the Dangote Petroleum Refinery now supplies over 90 per cent of Nigeria’s daily petrol consumption.
Dangote said in the filing that the licences issued undermine its operations and contravene the law, which it argues allows imports only when domestic supply falls short.
Named in the suit against the country is the Attorney General and Minister of Justice, Mr Lateef Fagbemi. The federal government can only be sued via his office.
The case signals renewed tensions almost a year after Dangote withdrew an earlier lawsuit challenging similar licences. That case sought to nullify import permits issued to the NNPC and several traders.
The new filing asks the Federal High Court in Lagos to set aside import permits issued or renewed by the NMDPRA, arguing they breach an earlier order to maintain the status quo.
Dangote ended the earlier lawsuit in July 2025 without explanation, leaving unresolved questions over competition and supply in one of Africa’s largest fuel markets.
Nigeria has long relied on petrol imports due to underperforming state refineries. However, Dangote’s 650,000 barrels per day capacity refinery was touted to end that dependence.
Despite the presence of the facility, imports have continued to cover supply gaps as the refinery ramps up output.
The NMDPRA did not issue a single import licence in the first quarter of 2026 because the Dangote refinery had the capacity to meet Nigeria’s petrol demand.
Business Post gathered that only upon intervention by President Bola Tinubu were the licenses granted for the second quarter by the NMDPRA.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has revealed that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate in April 2026 rose to 15.69 per cent, beating analysts’ expectations of 15.95 per cent, as the fallout from the Iran war continued to affect the global economy.
The statistical office on Friday showed the headline inflation rate for April on a month-on-month basis was 2.13 per cent, while the food inflation rate in the review month was 16.06 per cent on a year-on-year basis.
The rise in prices comes as an energy price shock stemming from the continued conflict in the Middle East, which stoked food prices and affected relative exchange rate stability.
According to the NBS, “this can be attributed to the rate of change in the average prices of the following products: Millet whole grain, yam flour, ginger (Fresh), beef, garri, tam tuber, pepper (Fresh), cray fish, cassava tuber, Beans, Irish Potatoes, tomatoes (fresh), wheat grain (Sold loose), soya beans, guinea corn, plantain, carrots (Fresh) etc.”
“The average annual rate of food inflation for the twelve months ending April 2026, relative to the previous twelve-month average, was 17.55%, which was 17.05% points lower than the average annual rate of change recorded in April 2025 (34.60%),” the NBS said.
Analysts at Coronation Research had earlier projected that the inflation rate in Nigeria would be at 15.95 per cent on a year-on-year basis in April 2026. It added that the expected inflation rate signals a return toward the underlying disinflation trajectory and could be a pivotal data point in shaping Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) deliberations at the next policy meeting.
It also expects food inflation to further ease, as food and non-alcoholic beverages remain the dominant contributor to headline CPI, accounting for about 40 per cent of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) basket.
The MPC of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will meet this month, the first since the Iran War started in late February, to review core monetary policies and possibly make adjustments.
The committee reduced the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by 50 basis points from 27.0 per cent to 26.5 per cent at its 304th Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting in February.
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