Economy
Markets on Standby Ahead of Trump’s Speech
By Lukman Otunuga
Global stocks were slightly pressured during trading on Monday as unease ahead of U.S President Donald Trump’s speech to Congress weighed on sentiment.
The lingering concerns over Trump’s pending speech lacking the clarity long sought have sparked a wave of risk aversion consequently punishing Asian shares.
Investors may scatter from riskier assets amid the uncertainty and such should place European markets under renewed selling pressure.
Gains on Wall Street may be capped if bears exploit the downside momentum from Asia and Europe to attack American shares. While the stock market rally this quarter has been impressive, the threat of the heavily anticipated “phenomenal” tax cuts and fiscal policies falling short of market expectations could spark a sharp selloff across the board.
It’s all about Trump
The main highlight this week will be Trump’s speech to Congress which markets hope could provide the much-needed clarity on his plans for tax cuts, health care, and jobs issues.
While there continues to be optimism over Trump’s repeated promises to boost US growth via tax cuts and infrastructure spending, there is a risk of Wall Street experiencing a sharp selloff if nothing new brought to the table.
The Dollar Index continues to balance around 101.10 but could slide lower if Trump fails to convince participants on his market shaking promises at his speech to congress on Tuesday.
From a technical standpoint, the Dollar Index is in a messy range on the daily charts but weakness below 101.00 could encourage a further decline lower towards 100.50.
Sterling pressured above 1.2400
Sterling was left vulnerable to losses during trading on Monday after reports of a potential Scottish referendum materializing in March added a layer of uncertainty to the Brexit woes.
The downside was fuelled further by Prime Minister Theresa May announcing the end of the free movement of new EU migrants which simply rekindled some hard Brexit fears.
Uncertainty remains the name of the game when handling the Pound with the rising anxiety ahead of the article 50 invoke in March exposing the currency to further downside shocks. From a technical standpoint, the GBPUSD remains heavily pressured on the daily charts and a breakdown below 1.2400 could encourage a further selloff lower towards 1.2200.
Currency spotlight – GBPJPY
The mixture of Sterling weakness and JPY strength has encouraged bearish investors to drag the GBPJPY lower towards 139.00.
This pair remains heavily pressured on the daily charts with the downside momentum opening a path lower towards 136.500. From a technical standpoint, there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs while prices are trading below the daily 20 SMA.
Previous support at 139.00 could transform into a dynamic resistance that opens a path lower towards 136.50.
Commodity spotlight – Gold
Uncertainty across the financial markets and political risk has boosted the appetite for safe-haven assets with Gold back in fashion.
This yellow metal remains firmly bullish on the daily charts with further upside expected in the short term if Dollar weakness persists.
With investors on the edge ahead of Trump’s speech to Congress on Tuesday, bulls may exploit the anxiety to propel prices higher back towards $1260. From a technical standpoint, $1250 could act as a minor intraday support that encourages a further incline towards $1260 and potentially higher.
Lukman Otunuga is a Research Analyst at FXTM
By Dipo Olowookere
A 0.17 per cent growth was recorded by the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited on Friday, extending the stay of the local bourse in the positive territory.
This uptrend was maintained despite profit-taking in the banking sector, which left its index down by 0.23 per cent at the close of trading activities.
Business Post reports that the insurance industry expanded by 4.04 per cent during the session, the energy counter improved by 1.05 per cent, and the consumer goods space gained 0.58 per cent, while the industrial goods sector closed flat.
Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 170.62 points to 102,353.68 points from 102,183.06 points and the market capitalisation grew by N541 billion to N62.851 trillion from N62.310 trillion.
There were 34 price gainers and 22 price losers yesterday, indicating a positive market breadth index and strong investor sentiment.
The trio of Caverton, Livestock Feeds and Sovereign Trust Insurance appreciated by 10.00 per cent each during the session to quote at N2.20, N5.94, and N1.10, respectively, as Neimeth jumped by 994 per cent to N3.43, and Royal Exchange increased by 9.88 per cent to 89 Kobo.
On its part, Academy Press lost 9.74 per cent to close at N3.15, PZ Cussons declined by 9.09 per cent to N25.00, DAAR Communications weakened by 8.64 per cent to 74 Kobo, Transcorp Power shed 5.91 per cent to settle at N46.95, and Dangote Sugar fell by 4.94 per cent to N38.50.
A total of 327.8 million shares valued at N11.8 billion were traded in 11,905 deals on Friday versus the 472.2 million shares worth N16.7 billion transacted in 12,336 deals on Thursday, representing a decline in the trading volume, value, and number of deals by 30.58 per cent, 29.34 per cent and 3.49 per cent apiece.
Access Holdings recorded the highest sales with 49.1 million stocks sold for N1.2 billion, Fidelity Bank exchanged 20.4 million shares valued at N359.0 million, UBA traded 20.1 million equities worth N681.0 million, Oando transacted 14.8 million shares for N998.1 million, and Universal Insurance traded 13.8 million stocks worth N8.7 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange extended its upward movement with a 0.26 per cent gain on Friday, January 17 amid renewed interest in unlisted stocks.
This raised the market capitalisation of the trading platform by N2.79 billion at the close of business to N1.075 trillion from the N1.072 trillion it closed in the preceding session.
In the same vein, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) went up by 8.08 points at the close of transactions to 3,111.91 points from the 3,103.83 points recorded at the previous session.
Yesterday, the volume of securities traded by investors went down by 606 per cent to 486,215 units from 1.2 million units, the value of shares shrank by 84.7 per cent to N2.8 million from N18.0 million, and the number of deals decreased by 65 per cent to 14 deals from the 33 deals carried out a day earlier.
In the final trading day of the week, there were three price gainers and one price loser, Geo-Fluids Plc, which lost 9 Kobo to finish at N4.70 per unit versus the preceding session’s price of N4.79 per unit.
On the flip side, Okitipupa Plc gained N3.60 to settle at N39.59 per share compared with the previous day’s N35.99 per share, Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc added 3 Kobo to wrap at 36 Kobo per unit compared with the preceding session’s 33 Kobo per share, as FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc improved its value by 49 Kobo to N39.65 per unit from N39.16 per unit.
At the close of business, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc remained the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 3.4 million units worth N134.9 million, trailed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 8.9 million units valued at N43.0 million, and Afriland Properties Plc with 690,825 sold for N11.1 million.
The most active stock by volume (year-to-date) remained IGI Plc with 23.5 million units worth N5.3 million, followed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 8.9 million units valued at N43.0 million, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 3.4 million units sold for N134.9 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira extended its appreciation against the US Dollar by 0.06 per cent or N89 Kobo on the US Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) on Friday, January 17, trading at N1,547.58/$1 compared with the previous day’s value of N1,548.47/$1.
Market analysts expect that the Naira will appreciate in the first quarter of the year, backed by continued policy support by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
Vestance Nigeria, an agribusiness advisory firm, projects that the exchange rate will trade between N1,650/$1 and N1,750/$1 this year in its Resilience and Recovery for Agribusiness in 2025 outlook report.
“The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) will continue implementing reforms to enhance exchange rate market transparency while maintaining higher interest rates to curb inflationary pressures and attract foreign portfolio management,” it said.
Also, the Nigerian currency improved its value against the Pound Sterling by N20.84 to wrap the session at N1,883.59/£1 versus the preceding day’s N1,904.43/£1 and against the Euro, the Nigerian currency gained N10.45 to settle at N1,590.34/€1, in contrast to Thursday’s closing price of N1,600.79/€1.
In the parallel market, the domestic currency appreciated against the greenback by N5 yesterday to sell for N1,675/$1 compared with the N1,675/$1 it was traded a day earlier.
As for the cryptocurrency market, there was profit-taking amid excitement for a new era of crypto-friendly US government mounts ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration next week.
Crypto investors expect a change from Mr Trump who promised on the campaign trail to position the US as a leader in the crypto space including creating a national stockpile of Bitcoin, in stark contrast to past years’ regulatory crackdowns and enforcements.
Litecoin (LTC) fell by 9.9 per cent to trade at $124.56, Ripple (XRP) slumped by 6.2 per cent to $3.10, Cardano (ADA) dipped by 4.9 per cent to $1.06, Ethereum (ETH) dropped 3.1 per cent to finish at $3,270.61, Binance Coin (BNB) went down by 2.3 per cent to $698.57 and Dogecoin (DOGE) depreciated by 2.2 per cent to $0.3927.
However, Solana (SOL) rose by 8.8 per cent to end at $235.12, Bitcoin (BTC) expanded by 0.8 per cent to $102,494.03, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) sold flat at $1.00 each.
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