Economy
Markets on Standby Ahead of Trump’s Speech

By Lukman Otunuga
Global stocks were slightly pressured during trading on Monday as unease ahead of U.S President Donald Trump’s speech to Congress weighed on sentiment.
The lingering concerns over Trump’s pending speech lacking the clarity long sought have sparked a wave of risk aversion consequently punishing Asian shares.
Investors may scatter from riskier assets amid the uncertainty and such should place European markets under renewed selling pressure.
Gains on Wall Street may be capped if bears exploit the downside momentum from Asia and Europe to attack American shares. While the stock market rally this quarter has been impressive, the threat of the heavily anticipated “phenomenal” tax cuts and fiscal policies falling short of market expectations could spark a sharp selloff across the board.
It’s all about Trump
The main highlight this week will be Trump’s speech to Congress which markets hope could provide the much-needed clarity on his plans for tax cuts, health care, and jobs issues.
While there continues to be optimism over Trump’s repeated promises to boost US growth via tax cuts and infrastructure spending, there is a risk of Wall Street experiencing a sharp selloff if nothing new brought to the table.
The Dollar Index continues to balance around 101.10 but could slide lower if Trump fails to convince participants on his market shaking promises at his speech to congress on Tuesday.
From a technical standpoint, the Dollar Index is in a messy range on the daily charts but weakness below 101.00 could encourage a further decline lower towards 100.50.
Sterling pressured above 1.2400
Sterling was left vulnerable to losses during trading on Monday after reports of a potential Scottish referendum materializing in March added a layer of uncertainty to the Brexit woes.
The downside was fuelled further by Prime Minister Theresa May announcing the end of the free movement of new EU migrants which simply rekindled some hard Brexit fears.
Uncertainty remains the name of the game when handling the Pound with the rising anxiety ahead of the article 50 invoke in March exposing the currency to further downside shocks. From a technical standpoint, the GBPUSD remains heavily pressured on the daily charts and a breakdown below 1.2400 could encourage a further selloff lower towards 1.2200.
Currency spotlight – GBPJPY
The mixture of Sterling weakness and JPY strength has encouraged bearish investors to drag the GBPJPY lower towards 139.00.
This pair remains heavily pressured on the daily charts with the downside momentum opening a path lower towards 136.500. From a technical standpoint, there have been consistently lower lows and lower highs while prices are trading below the daily 20 SMA.
Previous support at 139.00 could transform into a dynamic resistance that opens a path lower towards 136.50.
Commodity spotlight – Gold
Uncertainty across the financial markets and political risk has boosted the appetite for safe-haven assets with Gold back in fashion.
This yellow metal remains firmly bullish on the daily charts with further upside expected in the short term if Dollar weakness persists.
With investors on the edge ahead of Trump’s speech to Congress on Tuesday, bulls may exploit the anxiety to propel prices higher back towards $1260. From a technical standpoint, $1250 could act as a minor intraday support that encourages a further incline towards $1260 and potentially higher.
Lukman Otunuga is a Research Analyst at FXTM
Economy
Naira Loses Against Dollar Official, Black Markets
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira opened the new trading week on a negative note on Monday at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) and the black market.
At the parallel market, the Nigerian currency weakened against the US Dollar by N5 to sell for N1,380/$1 compared with the preceding session’s rate of N1,375/$1, and at the GTBank FX desk, it shed N1 to trade at N1,373/$1 versus N1,372/$1.
At the official market, it lost 63 Kobo or 0.05 per cent against the Dollar during the session to close at N1,362.84/$1, in contrast to last Friday’s value of N1,362.21/$1.
However, the Nigerian Naira gained N2.30 against the Pound Sterling at the spot market yesterday, quoting at N1,821.29/£1 compared with the previous rate of N1,823.59/£1, and improved against the Euro by 23 Kobo to settle at N1,574.35/€1 versus N1,574.58/€1.
Data from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) showed that interbank forex turnover increased to $92.248 million across 90 deals, from $73.565 million last Friday.
On the policy front, participants believed that the application of the fourth edition of the Foreign Exchange Manual of the central bank, which introduces updated guidelines for foreign exchange transactions and tightening compliance requirements for authorised dealers and market participants, will enhance market flexibility and ease previous restrictions.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market snapped from recent declines, jolted by Strategy’s purchase of 1,550 Bitcoin for approximately $101 million, increasing its total holdings to 845,256 BTC. The company raised $181 million through common stock sales, using the proceeds to fund the bitcoin purchase and increase its cash reserves to $1 billion, pushing the price of the coin higher by 3.2 per cent to $63,731.69.
Cardano (ADA) appreciated by 8.4 per cent to $0.1738, Ethereum (ETH) rose by 5.2 per cent to $1,711.54, Solana (SOL) expanded by 5.1 per cent to $67.82, and Ripple (XRP) improved by 4.9 per cent to $1.18.
Further, Dogecoin (DOGE) jumped by 4.3 per cent to $0.0873, Binance Coin (BNB) soared by 2.7 per cent to $609.50, and TRON (TRX) increased by 0.7 per cent to $0.3274, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $0.9997 and $0.9998, respectively.
Economy
Economist Tasks FG to Explore Alternative Funding Sources
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The federal government has been advised to consider exploring other funding sources to finance its budget deficits.
Speaking with Punch recently, the chief executive of CSA Advisory, Mr Aliyu Ilias, said the current appetite for borrowing by the government cannot be sustained because it elevates debt-servicing costs.
The economist suggested the sale of some public assets and the involvement of the private sector in infrastructure financing for economic growth.
According to him, running to the debt markets to raise funds for the government is not the best route to take, as the reliance on borrowing always leads to higher debt-servicing obligations.
“The more you borrow, the more you are also incurring more debt services,” he said, tasking the government to also capitalise on increased oil revenues stemming from ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.
“The government can actually sell off some of their assets to raise more money. The government can also, if you look at the revenue we are getting from oil, it’s getting more, especially with this war. It’s another opportunity for us to actually not borrow again,” Mr Ilias submitted.
He also pointed to ongoing tax reforms as another avenue to improve government finances and narrow the fiscal gap.
“The government can also look at tax reform. The fact is that the government does not have money. The only chance for getting more money is to address the financial deficit,” he added.
Economy
Crude Oil Gains Over $1 Despite Easing Iran-Israel Tensions
By Adedapo Adesanya
Crude oil was up by $1 on Monday as Iran and Israel said they had halted attacks on each other following an appeal from US President Donald Trump.
Brent crude futures gained $1.16 or 1.3 per cent to trade at $94.25 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up 76 cents or 0.8 per cent to $91.30 per barrel.
Iran’s military said Monday it halted attacks on Israel after the two countries exchanged their most intense strikes in months, further straining an already shaky ceasefire as well as the US-Israeli relationship. Iran, however, said it would resume strikes if Israel continued to hit Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Israel also halted attacks on Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said, stopping short of acknowledging a ceasefire that US President Donald Trump said the countries were aiming for.
President Trump said earlier that the US blockade, which was introduced in April, would remain in place “in full force” until a final peace agreement between the two warring nations is reached.
Prices gained more than 5 per cent earlier on Monday after renewed Israeli strikes on Iran and attacks on Lebanon had reduced hopes of an imminent end to the wider war.
Market analysts noted that because of the strikes, investors were concerned that flows through the Strait of Hormuz might remain restricted for longer. Roughly a fifth of the world’s daily supply of oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the waterway before US-Israeli airstrikes at the end of February unleashed the latest escalation of the Middle Eastern conflict.
Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis said on Monday they would ban ships linked to Israel from the Red Sea after Israel renewed its military attacks on Iran, adding to concerns about global shipping and energy flows.
In the face of the supply crisis, a sub-group under the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) on Sunday agreed on its fourth oil output target increase in four months. The seven members decided to increase targets by 188,000 barrels per day from July, the same as the June hike, which was adjusted down from monthly increases of 206,000 barrels per day in May and April to take into account the exit of the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
On paper, the sub-group has increased its output quotas from April to June by almost 600,000 barrels per day, but in reality, the group’s production has collapsed due to export cuts by Gulf members, averaging 33.19 million barrels per day in April compared with 42.77 million barrels per day in February.
Saudi Arabia has cut its official selling prices for crude oil to Asia in July for a second month.
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