Economy
MPC to Maintain Status Quo on Policy Variables Despite Falling Market Rates
By Afrinvestor Research
Since we released our Pre-MPC Note last week, two major developments have surfaced in the global and domestic scene with potential impacts on domestic market condition and near term outlook for monetary policy.
Whilst we consider these events important talking points as the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) convenes next week (tomorrow) to deliberate, our expectation of the outcome of the meeting remains unchanged as we anticipate committee members to overwhelmingly vote to retain policy rates at current levels.
The first major development is the outcome of the US Fed policy meeting which held midweek. Dismissing the deceleration in US inflation rate below the 2.0% target since the start of the year as a “mystery”, the US Fed Chairman, Janet Yellen, guided on one additional rate hike in 2017 and three more in 2018 in addition to measures to begin slowly reducing the Fed’s US$4.5tn balance sheet.
Although the slightly hawkish statement of the US Fed caught many by surprise, markets’ reaction has so far been calm against the backdrop of the strong and synchronized global growth expansion as well as effective use of forward guidance communication by the Fed to guide on a policy path.
Thus, US equity markets, which have been on a tear this year, traded flattish on Wednesday and Thursday, although yields have risen on US bonds and Emerging Market sovereign and corporate Eurobonds. Nonetheless, we do not expect the MPC to respond as the likelihood of a large-scale capital flow reversal from emerging markets remains low as long as the US Fed sticks to its guided gradual tightening path whilst other major central banks’ policy outlook remains broadly accommodative.
Contrarily, we consider the recent developments in the domestic scene more significant to the MPC’s discourse next week. Over the last three weeks, rates have been dropping sharply in the Treasury Bills market in response to possible near term easing of monetary policy as well as reduction in supply of longer dated bills since CBN stopped offering 364-day bills at its OMO auctions.
Consequently, we have observed a bull flattening pattern (i.e. longer term rates falling faster than shorter ones) at primary and secondary market for Treasury Bills as investors aggressively position in longer-dated bills.
At the PMA held mid-week, the 364-day stop rate fell to 17.0%, 152bps lower than the August 30th Auction stop rate, compared to a 15bps and 56bps drop in 91-day and 182-day papers respectively.
As demand increases relative to supply, secondary market rates on T-bills have also declined across tenors, down 134bps M-o-M as of market close today. The bullish sentiment in the fixed income market is also noticeable in the bond market where yields have dropped 74bps on average M-o-M across benchmark bonds to 16.2%. Given market sentiments are often leading indicators of policy rate changes, we expect the MPC to take notice of recent movements in the yield curve.
However, as we noted in our Pre-MPC note last week, we believe MPC would maintain status quo on all rates next week given the need to consolidate gains on stabilizing FX and inflation rates. Our expectations are based on the following considerations:
Price level remains sticky as high base effect thins out: the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Inflation report for August released today indicated Headline inflation marginally decelerated 3bps to 16.01% Y-o-Y from 16.04% in July. M-o-M CPI growth have remained elevated since the start of the year against the backdrop of a food price pressure which took Food Inflation to an all-time high of 20.3% in July 2017. With the economy now running out of high base effect driven moderation in headline inflation, our model projects inflation rate will rise for the first time since the start of the year in September. Given supposed price-anchored monetary policy regime, the MPC is not likely to cut benchmark rate in a period of rising inflation expectation.
MPR has become a less effective Monetary Policy Tool: the case for easing via benchmark rate reduction becomes weaker if the current disparity between the benchmark rate and short-term fixed income yields is taken into consideration. Although the recent bullish streak in the fixed income market has narrowed this spread, it is not enough to justify a cut in interest.
While our medium term outlook favours a gradual monetary easing, we believe the stabilization of the FX market is paramount to achieving monetary policy objectives. The FX market, despite improvements recorded so far in the year, is still in a fragile state as the CBN is yet to harmonize all rates at the official market. As such, in the event that a unified rate is not achieved, monetary easing poses a threat for FX stability. Furthermore, the current realities of Nigeria’s budget deficit, suggests the need for the fiscal authorities to continuously fund this disparity which current tightening stance enhances; though at a higher cost to government.
In light of the above, the more rational decision we foresee the MPC making is to maintain status quo and continue to consolidate on gains in the FX market. Hence, we believe the outcome of the 5th MPC meeting would be to; retain the MPR at 14.0%; retain the CRR at 22.5%; retain the Liquidity Ratio at 30.0%; and retain the Asymmetric corridor at +200 and -500 basis points around the MPR.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange suffered its fifth decline for this week on Friday after it closed lower by 0.09 per cent, with the Unlisted Security Index (NSI) down by 8.91 points to 3,639.10 points from 3,642.22 points and the market capitalisation declining by N1.86 billion to end N2.177 trillion compared with the previous day’s N2.179 trillion.
Yesterday, the bourse recorded three price losers led by NASD Plc, which crumbled by N4.00 to close at N55.00 per share compared with the previous day’s N59.00 per share, as FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc depreciated by 68 Kobo to N66.23 per unit from Thursday’s closing price of N66.91 per unit, as Mass Telecom Innovation Plc lost 4 Kobo to end at 40 Kobo per share versus the preceding day’s 44 Kobo per share.
On the flip side, there were two price gainers led by Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc, which added 21 Kobo to close at N40.81 per unit compared with the previous session’s N40.60 per share and UBN Property Plc, which improved by 10 Kobo to N2.09 per share from N1.99 per share.
During the session, the level of activity increased as the the volume of transactions surged by 255.7 per cent to 10.2 million units from 2.9 million units, the value of trades soared by 122.0 per cent to N189.5 million from N85.4 million, and the number of deals increased by 22.5 per cent to 49 deals from the previous day’s 40 deals.
When the bourse ended for the day, CSCS Plc remained the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 10.5 million units worth N427.7 million, trailed by FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 893,553 units traded for N60.1 million, and MRS Oil Plc with 291,801 units valued at N58.3 million.
However, CSCS Plc took over as the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 10.5 million units old for N427.7 million, as Geo-Fluids Plc slipped to second place with 7.7 million units worth N52.4 million, and Mass Telecom Innovation Plc occupied the third spot with 6.2 million units transacted for N2.5 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira appreciated against the US Dollar by 44 Kobo or 0.03 per cent in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, January 24 to sell for N1,421.63/$1 compared with the N1,422.07/$1 it was traded on Thursday.
This was buoyed by increased FX inflows from exporters as well as sustained Dollar volume from non-bank corporate, individual and other sources.
However, the Naira lost N15.61 against the Pound Sterling in the same market window yesterday to quote at N1,924.17/£1 compared with the previous day’s value of N1,908.56/£1 and depreciated against the Euro by N3.60 to finish at N1,669.56/€1 versus the N1,665.96/€1 it was exchanged a day earlier.
At the GTBank forex counter, the Nigerian currency traded flat against its American counterpart at N1,430/$1, and also maintained stability against the greenback at the parallel market segment during the session at N1,485/$1.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market took a hit as slowdown occurred, explained by large holders taking profits.
The market had seen a short lived boost after Japanese intervention sent the Yen surging against the US Dollar, a move some saw as a necessary step toward resuming a bull market in crypto.
However, investors took profit with Dogecoin (DOGE) down by 0.8 per cent to $0.1240, and Cardano (ADA) down by 0.7 per cent to $0.3585.
Further, Solana (SOL) dropped 0.6 per cent to sell at $126.89, Litecoin (LTC) depreciated by 0.5 per cent to $68.42, and Binance Coin (BNB) fell by 0.1 per cent to $890.13.
But, Ripple (XRP) appreciated by 0.4 per cent to $1.91, Ethereum (ETH) rose by 0.3 per cent to $2,953.72, and Bitcoin (BTC) grew by 0.1 per cent to $89,477.58, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) traded flat at $1.00 each.
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
The House of Representatives Minority Caucus Ad-hoc Committee on Tax Laws on the Allegations of Illegal Alterations on the Gazetted Tax Laws has released an interim report on its findings, accusing the executive arm of government of removing and inserting some items in the bills passed by the parliament.
The chairman of the 7-man panel, Mr Afam Victor Ogene, in the report released on Friday, said the laws were altered after they were transmitted to the executive by the National Assembly for assent by President Bola Tinubu.
Recall that a member of the green chamber of the parliament, Mr Abdulsamad Dasuki, raised an alarm on the discrepancies in the gazetted version and the one passed by the legislative arm of government.
The Minority Caucus of the House of Reps, headed by Mr Kingsley Chinda, in a statement on December 28, 2025, vowed to “unconditionally protect the independence of the legislature and our democracy.”
It then constituted the committee on January 2, 2026, to get to the roots of all the issues surrounding the scandal.
The next day, the lower chamber of the National Assembly, through its spokesman, Mr Akintunde Rotimi, released a statement announcing that the Speaker, Mr Abbas Tajudeen, had directed the release of the four tax reform Acts; The Nigeria Tax Act, 2025; The Nigeria Tax Administration Act, 2025; The National Revenue Service (Establishment) Act, 2025; and The Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Act, 2025, duly signed into law by the President, for public record, verification, and reference.
The statement further added that the Speaker has also ordered an internal verification and immediate public release of the Certified Acts to eliminate doubts, restore clarity, and protect the sanctity of the legislature.
In its report yesterday, the panel said it discovered some alterations in the gazetted version, noting that, “given the anomalies, illegalities, and impunity observed, which clearly undermine the National Assembly’s constitutional powers and democracy, the committee finds the current evidence sufficient to warrant a deeper investigation. This will ensure accountability for the affront against the legislature.”
“To achieve this, the committee respectfully requests an extension to conduct a more thorough examination of the matter,” it added.
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