Economy
MPC to Maintain Status Quo on Policy Variables Despite Falling Market Rates
By Afrinvestor Research
Since we released our Pre-MPC Note last week, two major developments have surfaced in the global and domestic scene with potential impacts on domestic market condition and near term outlook for monetary policy.
Whilst we consider these events important talking points as the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) convenes next week (tomorrow) to deliberate, our expectation of the outcome of the meeting remains unchanged as we anticipate committee members to overwhelmingly vote to retain policy rates at current levels.
The first major development is the outcome of the US Fed policy meeting which held midweek. Dismissing the deceleration in US inflation rate below the 2.0% target since the start of the year as a “mystery”, the US Fed Chairman, Janet Yellen, guided on one additional rate hike in 2017 and three more in 2018 in addition to measures to begin slowly reducing the Fed’s US$4.5tn balance sheet.
Although the slightly hawkish statement of the US Fed caught many by surprise, markets’ reaction has so far been calm against the backdrop of the strong and synchronized global growth expansion as well as effective use of forward guidance communication by the Fed to guide on a policy path.
Thus, US equity markets, which have been on a tear this year, traded flattish on Wednesday and Thursday, although yields have risen on US bonds and Emerging Market sovereign and corporate Eurobonds. Nonetheless, we do not expect the MPC to respond as the likelihood of a large-scale capital flow reversal from emerging markets remains low as long as the US Fed sticks to its guided gradual tightening path whilst other major central banks’ policy outlook remains broadly accommodative.
Contrarily, we consider the recent developments in the domestic scene more significant to the MPC’s discourse next week. Over the last three weeks, rates have been dropping sharply in the Treasury Bills market in response to possible near term easing of monetary policy as well as reduction in supply of longer dated bills since CBN stopped offering 364-day bills at its OMO auctions.
Consequently, we have observed a bull flattening pattern (i.e. longer term rates falling faster than shorter ones) at primary and secondary market for Treasury Bills as investors aggressively position in longer-dated bills.
At the PMA held mid-week, the 364-day stop rate fell to 17.0%, 152bps lower than the August 30th Auction stop rate, compared to a 15bps and 56bps drop in 91-day and 182-day papers respectively.
As demand increases relative to supply, secondary market rates on T-bills have also declined across tenors, down 134bps M-o-M as of market close today. The bullish sentiment in the fixed income market is also noticeable in the bond market where yields have dropped 74bps on average M-o-M across benchmark bonds to 16.2%. Given market sentiments are often leading indicators of policy rate changes, we expect the MPC to take notice of recent movements in the yield curve.
However, as we noted in our Pre-MPC note last week, we believe MPC would maintain status quo on all rates next week given the need to consolidate gains on stabilizing FX and inflation rates. Our expectations are based on the following considerations:
Price level remains sticky as high base effect thins out: the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Inflation report for August released today indicated Headline inflation marginally decelerated 3bps to 16.01% Y-o-Y from 16.04% in July. M-o-M CPI growth have remained elevated since the start of the year against the backdrop of a food price pressure which took Food Inflation to an all-time high of 20.3% in July 2017. With the economy now running out of high base effect driven moderation in headline inflation, our model projects inflation rate will rise for the first time since the start of the year in September. Given supposed price-anchored monetary policy regime, the MPC is not likely to cut benchmark rate in a period of rising inflation expectation.
MPR has become a less effective Monetary Policy Tool: the case for easing via benchmark rate reduction becomes weaker if the current disparity between the benchmark rate and short-term fixed income yields is taken into consideration. Although the recent bullish streak in the fixed income market has narrowed this spread, it is not enough to justify a cut in interest.
While our medium term outlook favours a gradual monetary easing, we believe the stabilization of the FX market is paramount to achieving monetary policy objectives. The FX market, despite improvements recorded so far in the year, is still in a fragile state as the CBN is yet to harmonize all rates at the official market. As such, in the event that a unified rate is not achieved, monetary easing poses a threat for FX stability. Furthermore, the current realities of Nigeria’s budget deficit, suggests the need for the fiscal authorities to continuously fund this disparity which current tightening stance enhances; though at a higher cost to government.
In light of the above, the more rational decision we foresee the MPC making is to maintain status quo and continue to consolidate on gains in the FX market. Hence, we believe the outcome of the 5th MPC meeting would be to; retain the MPR at 14.0%; retain the CRR at 22.5%; retain the Liquidity Ratio at 30.0%; and retain the Asymmetric corridor at +200 and -500 basis points around the MPR.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria’s first-ever domestic US Dollar bond has been named as the West Africa Deal of the Year at the 2025 Global Banking & Markets Africa Awards, following a highly successful issuance that raised $917 million.
Announced by the Debt Management Office (DMO) on August 19, 2024, the bond initially targeted $500 million but was oversubscribed by 180 per cent.
The raise came with a five-year tenor and was listed on both the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) and FMDQ Securities Exchange.
The landmark issuance attracted a broad spectrum of investors, including local institutions, diaspora Nigerians, and international players. Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) served as Global Coordinator.
The Ministry of Finance said in a statement on X, formerly Twitter, that the Minister of State for Finance, Mrs Doris Uzoka-Anite, received the award at the Bonds, Loans & ESG Capital Markets Conference in Cape Town, South Africa.
She formally presented it to the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun in his office in Abuja on Thursday.
“This award marks an important step in our ambition to position Nigeria—and Lagos—as a leading international financial centre,” Mr Edun said.
“It also reflects growing confidence in the expertise and resilience of Nigeria’s financial system, which has once again delivered under challenging global conditions”, the Minister affirmed.
The ministry noted that the prestigious award underscores Nigeria’s commitment to developing its capital markets, improving its investment landscape, and attracting foreign investment, adding that it is also a testament to the country’s potential for economic growth and its determination to become a leading international financial centre.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) has cautioned refinery operators against importing substandard crude oil, following the expiry of the Naira-for-crude deal.
In a statement signed by its National Public Relations Officer, Mr Joseph Obele, the association said imported crude must meet global standards to ensure the production of high-quality petroleum products.
The group stressed that Nigerian crude oil, classified as Sweet Crude due to its low sulfur content of less than 0.5 per cent – ranks among the best in the world, and importation possess a high risk.
“We see no reason why imported crude oil should be of lower standards. The importation of substandard crude oil will compromise the quality of petroleum products, undermine the growth of Nigeria’s oil and gas industry, and ultimately harm consumers.”
PETROAN also expressed concern over speculations that petroleum product prices may rise following the expiration of the naira-for-crude arrangement and called for continued access to imported refined petroleum products to stabilize prices and ensure energy sufficiency.
“The permutations in the media that petroleum prices might increase as the Naira-for-crude deal comes to an end is a serious concern to PETROAN. In order to avoid this scenario, we advocate that the window for importing refined petroleum products should remain open.”
The group urged regulatory agencies to conduct rigorous laboratory testing on all crude oil imports to verify their quality.
“We call on regulatory agencies to be on high alert and conduct thorough laboratory analysis on all crude oil imports to ensure they meet the required standards. We also urge the relevant authorities to ensure that refinery operators adhere to the highest operational standards.”
The association further called on the Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Mr Heineken Lokpobiri, to conduct a comprehensive review of the Naira-for-crude initiative to determine the next steps in Nigeria’s energy sector.
“The reforms introduced by the Petroleum Industry Act, PIA, encourage competition in the downstream sector. Competition is a catalyst for price reduction in any sector. We believe that as the market adjusts to the new realities, prices will stabilize and eventually decrease.”
PETROAN also announced plans to conduct independent laboratory testing on refined petroleum products.
“We will conduct laboratory testing on refined petroleum products to determine which refinery or depot our members should buy from. This is to ensure that our members and the Nigerian public are not sold substandard products.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange bounced back on Thursday, April 3 from its previous day’s loss, gaining 0.24 per cent at the close of business.
This increased the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) by 7.78 points to 3,316.34 points from the preceding trading day’s 3,308.46 points and raised the portfolios of unlisted securities investors by N4.55 billion as the market capitalisation ended at N1.915 trillion compared with Wednesday’s N1.910 trillion.
This growth occurred after the bourse finished with three price gainers and one price loser, IPWA Plc, which shed 5 Kobo to end at 50 Kobo per share, in contrast to midweek’s value of 55 Kobo per share.
Business Post reports that FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc gained N2.16 to close at N38.66 per unit versus N36.50 per unit, First Trust Microfinance Bank Plc appreciated by 2 Kobo to 58 Kobo per unit from 56 Kobo per unit, and Food Concepts Plc rose by 1 Kobo to N1.18 per share from N1.17 per share.
Data indicated that there was a decrease of 95.9 per cent in the volume of securities bought and sold by the market participants to 372,568 units from the 9.1 million units transacted in the previous trading day.
Equally, the value of transactions slid by 43.7 per cent to N4.1 million from N7.2 million, and the number of deals went up by 81.8 per cent to 40 deals from 22 deals.
When the market ended for the session, Impresit Bakolori Plc was the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 533.9 million units worth N520.9 million, followed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 70.2 million units sold for N23.8 million, and Geo Fluids Plc with 44.2 million units valued at N89.4 million.
FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc finished the trading day as the active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 13.8 million units valued at N531.6 million, trailed by Impresit Bakolori Plc with 533.9 million units worth N520.9 million, and Afriland Properties Plc with 17.8 million units sold for N364.2 million.
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