Economy
MPC May Delay Hike in Rates Until January 2019—FSDH
By Dipo Olowookere
Ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which kicks off tomorrow, analysts at Lagos-based FSDH Research have said the apex bank may not tamper with the monetary policy rate (MPR) until its January 2019 meeting.
Though the company noted that rising demand for foreign exchange leading to a consistent decline in the foreign reserves, and rising inflation rate were major justifications for an increase in policy rates, it maintained that the CBN may continue to use the conduct of Open Market Operations (OMO) to manage the temporary liquidity in the financial system that may affect price stability.
Business Post recalls that at its meeting in September 2018, the MPC maintained the MPR at 14 percent, with the asymmetric corridor at +200 and -500 basis points around the MPR; the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 22.50 percent and the Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 30 percent.
According to FSDH, a review of the global economy shows that global growth remains fairly strong, but trade restrictions may reduce global growth. This is according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which projects a global growth rate of 3.7 percent for 2018 and 2019.
The growth rate forecast is slightly lower than the growth rate projections the IMF released in July 2018. Although FSDH Research notes that despite the recent drop in the price of crude oil on the international market, the moderately strong global growth should sustain global crude oil prices around $70/b in the short-term.
FSDH Research says it expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve to raise the Federal Funds Rate (Fed Rate) by 0.25 percent when the committee meets in December 2018.
The October 2018 US unemployment rate at 3.7 percent (lower than the target of 6.5 percent), inflation rate of 2.5 percent (higher than the target of 2 percent) and the growth of 3.5 percent in the economy all support arguments for an interest rate increase.
The investment firm said an increase in the Fed Rate may further place additional demand pressure on foreign exchange in Nigeria and possibly increase capital flight from emerging markets. Thus, a rate cut in Nigeria is not appropriate under these situations.
It said the short-term forecast for the Nigerian economy shows that economic growth remains fragile. The IMF forecasts growth rates of 1.9 percent and 2.3 percent in 2018 and 2019 respectively. These growth rates are lower than the Nigerian population growth rate. Thus, the economy needs policy stimulus to record a growth rate that is inclusive. Nevertheless, monetary policy easing in the form of an interest rate cut may not stimulate growth. Appropriate fiscal measures and incentives that will improve the ease of doing business in Nigeria will lay strong foundation for sustainable growth.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey published by the CBN for the month of October 2018 expanded at a faster rate. FSDH Research attributes the expansion in the PMI to the increased economic activities that are usually associated with the last quarter of the year.
FSDH Research said it observed a consistent drawdown in the external reserves in order to maintain foreign exchange rate stability in Nigeria.
The CBN increased the supply of foreign exchange at the Investors’ and Exporters’ Foreign Exchange Window and increased the yield at the OMO to dowse demand pressure at the foreign exchange market.
Consequently, the drawdowns from the external reserves continued until November 2018. CBN remained the largest supplier of foreign exchange at the I & E window in the last three months.
FSDH Research noted that an attractive Nigerian Treasury Bill (NTB) yield around the current level of 16 percent may help to attract foreign portfolio investment and reduce capital flight.
Nevertheless, there is a need for deliberate fiscal measures and engagements that will promote non-oil exports that attract foreign investment into Nigeria and will guarantee foreign exchange stability.
The inflation rate increased to 11.28 percent in September 2018, the second increase since January 2017, principally due to the increase in the Food Index.
FSDH Research says it expects inflation rate to increase marginally to 11.34 percent in October and to end the year 2018 at 11.7 percent.
It said an increase in food prices, electioneering spending, and a possible increase in the minimum wage, are potential factors that will influence the direction of the inflation rate in the next three months.
Despite the expected rise in the inflation rate, it will be difficult for a hike in the interest rate to stem the rising inflation rate, as the cause of the rising inflation rate is not within the scope of monetary policy.
According to FSDH, the MPC may deal with the possible negative impact of an increase in the minimum wage at its January 2019 meeting. Thus a hold decision may be appropriate.
Data from the CBN shows that the key monetary aggregates in the country are below the target the CBN sets for the country. This development supports an argument for an expansionary policy to boost credit creation.
However, the current structural rigidities in the economy do not support strong credit growth. Therefore, unconventional policies are required to boost credit creation and business expansion to stimulate growth.
Measures that remove the risks inherent in the economy will encourage credit expansion and this will support sustainable growth.
Economy
No Discrepancies in Harmonised, Gazetted Tax Laws—Oyedele
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, has said there are no discrepancies in the tax laws passed by the National Assembly and the gazetted versions made available to the public.
Last week, a member of the House of Representatives, Mr Abdussamad Dasuki, raised worries about the differences between its version and that gazetted by the presidency.
However, speaking on Channels Television’s Morning Brief on Monday, Mr Oyedele claimed what has been circulating in the media was fake.
“Before you can say there is a difference between what was gazetted and what was passed, we have what has not been gazetted. We don’t have what was passed,” he said.
“The official harmonised bills certified by the clerk, which the National Assembly sent to the President, we don’t have a copy to compare. Only the lawmakers can say authoritatively what we sent.
“It should be the House of Representatives or Senate version. It should be the harmonised version certified by the clerk. Even me, I cannot say that I have it. I only have what was presented to Mr President to sign.”
Mr Oyedele stated that he reached out to the House of Representatives Committee regarding a particular Section 41 (8), which states, “You have to pay a deposit of 20 per cent.”
He noted that the response given by the committee was that its members had not met on the issue.
“I know that particular provision is not in the final gazette, but it was in the draft gazette. Some people decided that they should write the report of the committee before the committee had met, and it had circulated everywhere.
“What is out there in the media did not come from the committee set up by the House of Representatives. I think we should allow them do the investigation,” Mr Oyedele added.
In June, President Bola Tinubu signed the four tax reform bills into law, marking what the government has described as the most significant overhaul of the country’s tax system in decades.
The tax reform laws, which faced stiff opposition from federal lawmakers from the northern part of the country before their passage, are scheduled to take effect on January 1, 2026.
The laws include the Nigeria Tax Act, the Nigeria Tax Administration Act, the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Act, and the Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Act, all operating under a single authority, the Nigeria Revenue Service.
Economy
Aluminium Extrusion Surges 59.35% to Lead NGX Weekly Gainers’ Chart
By Dipo Olowookere
A total of 55 equities appreciated last week on the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited versus the 49 equities recorded a week earlier.
However, 33 stocks closed lower compared with 41 stocks in the previous week, while 55 shares remained unchanged versus 57 shares of the preceding week.
Leading the advancers’ log was Aluminium Extrusion, which gained 59.35 per cent to close at N12.35, Mecure Industries rose by 44.93 per cent to N55.00, First Holdco appreciated by 42.93 per cent to N44.95, Guinness Nigeria improved by 33.01 per cent to N289.70, and NPF Microfinance Bank grew by 20.65 per cent to N3.74.
On the flip side, Living Trust Mortgage Bank lost 11.38 per cent to settle at N3.35, Japaul declined by 10.53 per cent to N2.38, International Energy Insurance slipped by 9.92 per cent to N2.27, FTN Cocoa depreciated by 9.80 per cent to N4.42, and Stanbic IBTC went down by 9.33 per cent to N95.20.
The buying interest in the week raised the All-Share Index (ASI) and the market capitalisation by 1.76 per cent to 152,057.38 points and N96.937 trillion, respectively.
Similarly, all other indices finished higher with the exception of AFR Bank Value, and the energy indices, which fell by 1.38 per cent and 0.17 per cent apiece.
According to trading data, a total 9.849 billion shares worth N305.843 billion in 126,584 deals exchanged hands in the five-day trading week compared with the 4.373 billion shares valued at N97.783 billion traded in 110,736 deals a week earlier.
The financial services industry led the activity chart with 8.295 billion shares valued at N232.223 billion traded in 50,351 deals, contributing 84.22 per cent and 75.93 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.
The healthcare space followed with 517.443 million shares worth N3.472 billion in 2,979 deals, and the consumer goods counter transacted 392.765 million shares worth N12.664 billion in 18,438 deals.
The trio of Ecobank, First Holdco, and Access Holdings accounted for 6.424 billion shares worth N204.629 billion in 11,362 deals, contributing 65.23 per cent and 66.91 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.
Economy
NEPC to Disburse $50m Digital Women Empowerment Fund Q1 2026
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian Export Promotion Council (NEPC) has assured beneficiaries of the $50 million Women Exporters in the Digital Economy (WEIDE) Fund to expect the first tranche of grants in the first quarter of 2026, following the completion of ongoing capacity-building and compliance processes.
The assurance was given during a Town Hall Meeting for WEIDE Fund beneficiaries held in Abuja over the weekend. The gathering provided an opportunity to review progress made since the launch of the initiative in August 2025.
The $50 million WEIDE Fund is a global initiative by the WTO and ITC to empower women-led businesses in developing countries, especially Nigeria, by providing training, finance, and market access for digital trade, helping them grow from small enterprises to global players through support like grants and mentorship, as seen in its launch phase benefiting 146 Nigerian women entrepreneurs.
Speaking at the event, the chief executive of NEPC, Mrs Nonye Ayeni, called on beneficiaries to maximize the opportunities provided by the programme, emphasizing the progress made and the milestones achieved since its launch.
Mrs Ayeni said the engagement was meant to review the programme’s achievements, identify areas for improvement, and strengthen support for the beneficiaries.
“So, it’s time for us to get together at the end of the year to see how far we’ve gone, how well we’ve done, and what we need to do to make it better and support them more effectively through the WEIDE Fund,” she said.
Mrs Ayeni highlighted the significant capacity-building activities conducted for the 146 selected women entrepreneurs, noting that top-tier coaches and trainers had been deployed immediately after the official launch by the Director General of the World Trade Organisation (WTO), Mrs Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala.
“These coaches are exceptional. They’ve trained our beneficiaries in financial literacy, bookkeeping, soft skills, leadership, succession planning, and digital tools so they can compete globally,” she said.
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