Economy
MPC May Delay Hike in Rates Until January 2019—FSDH

By Dipo Olowookere
Ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which kicks off tomorrow, analysts at Lagos-based FSDH Research have said the apex bank may not tamper with the monetary policy rate (MPR) until its January 2019 meeting.
Though the company noted that rising demand for foreign exchange leading to a consistent decline in the foreign reserves, and rising inflation rate were major justifications for an increase in policy rates, it maintained that the CBN may continue to use the conduct of Open Market Operations (OMO) to manage the temporary liquidity in the financial system that may affect price stability.
Business Post recalls that at its meeting in September 2018, the MPC maintained the MPR at 14 percent, with the asymmetric corridor at +200 and -500 basis points around the MPR; the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 22.50 percent and the Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 30 percent.
According to FSDH, a review of the global economy shows that global growth remains fairly strong, but trade restrictions may reduce global growth. This is according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which projects a global growth rate of 3.7 percent for 2018 and 2019.
The growth rate forecast is slightly lower than the growth rate projections the IMF released in July 2018. Although FSDH Research notes that despite the recent drop in the price of crude oil on the international market, the moderately strong global growth should sustain global crude oil prices around $70/b in the short-term.
FSDH Research says it expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve to raise the Federal Funds Rate (Fed Rate) by 0.25 percent when the committee meets in December 2018.
The October 2018 US unemployment rate at 3.7 percent (lower than the target of 6.5 percent), inflation rate of 2.5 percent (higher than the target of 2 percent) and the growth of 3.5 percent in the economy all support arguments for an interest rate increase.
The investment firm said an increase in the Fed Rate may further place additional demand pressure on foreign exchange in Nigeria and possibly increase capital flight from emerging markets. Thus, a rate cut in Nigeria is not appropriate under these situations.
It said the short-term forecast for the Nigerian economy shows that economic growth remains fragile. The IMF forecasts growth rates of 1.9 percent and 2.3 percent in 2018 and 2019 respectively. These growth rates are lower than the Nigerian population growth rate. Thus, the economy needs policy stimulus to record a growth rate that is inclusive. Nevertheless, monetary policy easing in the form of an interest rate cut may not stimulate growth. Appropriate fiscal measures and incentives that will improve the ease of doing business in Nigeria will lay strong foundation for sustainable growth.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey published by the CBN for the month of October 2018 expanded at a faster rate. FSDH Research attributes the expansion in the PMI to the increased economic activities that are usually associated with the last quarter of the year.
FSDH Research said it observed a consistent drawdown in the external reserves in order to maintain foreign exchange rate stability in Nigeria.
The CBN increased the supply of foreign exchange at the Investors’ and Exporters’ Foreign Exchange Window and increased the yield at the OMO to dowse demand pressure at the foreign exchange market.
Consequently, the drawdowns from the external reserves continued until November 2018. CBN remained the largest supplier of foreign exchange at the I & E window in the last three months.
FSDH Research noted that an attractive Nigerian Treasury Bill (NTB) yield around the current level of 16 percent may help to attract foreign portfolio investment and reduce capital flight.
Nevertheless, there is a need for deliberate fiscal measures and engagements that will promote non-oil exports that attract foreign investment into Nigeria and will guarantee foreign exchange stability.
The inflation rate increased to 11.28 percent in September 2018, the second increase since January 2017, principally due to the increase in the Food Index.
FSDH Research says it expects inflation rate to increase marginally to 11.34 percent in October and to end the year 2018 at 11.7 percent.
It said an increase in food prices, electioneering spending, and a possible increase in the minimum wage, are potential factors that will influence the direction of the inflation rate in the next three months.
Despite the expected rise in the inflation rate, it will be difficult for a hike in the interest rate to stem the rising inflation rate, as the cause of the rising inflation rate is not within the scope of monetary policy.
According to FSDH, the MPC may deal with the possible negative impact of an increase in the minimum wage at its January 2019 meeting. Thus a hold decision may be appropriate.
Data from the CBN shows that the key monetary aggregates in the country are below the target the CBN sets for the country. This development supports an argument for an expansionary policy to boost credit creation.
However, the current structural rigidities in the economy do not support strong credit growth. Therefore, unconventional policies are required to boost credit creation and business expansion to stimulate growth.
Measures that remove the risks inherent in the economy will encourage credit expansion and this will support sustainable growth.
Economy
Equity Investors Gain N186bn Amid Momentum Investing

By Dipo Olowookere
Continued momentum trading at the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited increased the portfolios of investors by 0.27 per cent on Wednesday.
During the session, the market capitalisation of the trading platform went up by N186 billion to N68.544 trillion from the N68.358 trillion recorded on Tuesday, and the All-Share Index (ASI) jumped by 295.99 points to 109,059.33 points from 108,763.34 points.
Yesterday, the commodity index remained flat, but the consumer goods space leapt by 1.25 per cent, the energy index advanced by 0.75 per cent, the banking counter improved by 0.58 per cent, the insurance industry chalked up 0.19 per cent, and the industrial goods sector appreciated by 0.01 per cent.
Investor sentiment remained strong as the bourse finished with 34 price gainers and 25 price losers, indicating a positive market breadth index.
Northern Nigeria Flour Mills gained 10.00 per cent to close N99.55, McNichols also increased by 10.00 per cent to N1.76, Champion Breweries went up by 9.91 per cent to N6.10, Caverton rose by 9.78 per cent to N4.04, and FTN Cocoa climbed higher by 9.65 per cent to N2.50.
On the flip side, Multiverse crashed by 9.63 per cent to N9.85, Geregu Power shut down by 9.09 per cent to N1141.50, Legend Internet lost 5.41 per cent to end at N8.40, Veritas Kapital slipped by 4.76 per cent to N1.00, and Transcorp shed 4.65 per cent to N44.10.
During the session, investors traded 531.3 million shares for N19.8 billion in 14,870 deals versus the 498.5 million shares worth N10.8 billion traded in 14,916 deals a day earlier, indicating a decline in the number of deals by 0.31 per cent, and a rise in the trading volume and value by 6.58 per cent and 83.33 per cent, respectively.
The most traded equity at midweek was GTCO with 53.3 million units sold for N3.7 billion, Access Holdings transacted 51.9 million units valued at N1.1 billion, Fidelity Bank traded 40.5 million units worth N834.8 million, Nigerian Breweries exchanged 35.8 million units valued at N1.9 billion, and Zenith Bank sold 27.4 million units worth N1.3 billion.
Economy
Conoil Ships First Cargo of Obodo Crude from Nigeria to Germany

By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) says the first cargo of the new Obodo crude blend has been shipped.
Business Post gathered that the first cargo could be headed for the North Sea port of Wilhelmshaven, Germany.
In a statement by the chief executive of NUPRC, Mr Gbenga Komolafe, Conoil Producing Limited was congratulated on the successful shipment of the first cargo of the Obodo crude blend.
Mr Komolafe said this development marks a significant milestone for Nigeria’s upstream sector, demonstrating the growing capacity of indigenous operators to contribute meaningfully to national crude oil production and exports.
“The introduction of the Obodo crude blend further diversifies Nigeria’s export portfolio and aligns with the commission’s strategic objectives to enhance production output, maximise hydrocarbon resources, and attract investment through operational efficiency and innovation,” he said.
Mr Komolafe maintained that this achievement by Conoil, under the production sharing contract framework with the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited, also reflects the positive outcomes of collaborative regulatory support, enabling indigenous players to thrive.
“As the regulator of Nigeria’s upstream petroleum industry, the NUPRC remains committed to providing a transparent, predictable, and investment-friendly environment that encourages the development of new crude streams and ensures optimal value for the Nigerian people.
“We look forward to more milestones of this nature that advance national energy security and economic resilience,” he said.
According to tracking data from Kpler, the Suezmax Atlanta Spirit loaded on April 25 from the floating production, storage and offloading vessel Tamara Tokoni.
Obodo has a gravity of 27.65°API and a very low sulphur content of 0.05pc, according to Argus.
Obodo joins the list of crude grades launched by Nigeria in the last year.
The Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) restarted production of similar-quality Utapate in 2024 and launched Nembe a year earlier.
Obodo could find favour with European refineries, as Nigerian medium sweet grades — including Forcados, Escravos and Bonga — have gone predominantly to Europe, the largest market for the country’s crude.
Economy
Dangote Refinery Cancels June Maintenance on Petrol Producing Unit

By Adedapo Adesanya
Dangote Oil Refinery has reportedly cancelled planned maintenance on its 204,000 barrels per day petrol-producing unit for June.
This comes as the $20 billion structure has carried out the necessary work during an unplanned shutdown from April 7 to May 11, according to industry tracker, IIR.
Dangote Refinery had originally scheduled a 30-day maintenance shutdown in June for its gasoline-producing Residue Fluid Catalytic Cracking (RFCC) unit.
The refinery has since pushed back on reports of the unit being under unplanned repair, stating that such claims are not entirely accurate.
According to data from shipping analytics firm, Kpler, during the unplanned outage, the refinery ramped up exports of residual products such as straight run fuel oil, while shipments of finished fuels like jet fuel and gasoil declined.
The 650,000 barrels per day refinery, built by Africa’s richest man, Mr Aliko Dangote, began producing diesel, naphtha, and jet fuel in January last year, followed by petrol production in September.
Dangote refinery could potentially end the long-standing gasoline trade from Europe to Africa, which is valued at $17 billion annually.
Already, the refinery has triggered a spate of changes in fuel prices locally with back to back cuts down to N825 per litre earlier this week from N835 previously sold.
The refinery, however, has not been able to operate at its optimal level due to challenges around feedstock. So far, in addition to local crude acquisition, it has bought crude from the US, Brazil, Angola, and Algeria.
-
Feature/OPED5 years ago
Davos was Different this year
-
Travel/Tourism9 years ago
Lagos Seals Western Lodge Hotel In Ikorodu
-
Showbiz2 years ago
Estranged Lover Releases Videos of Empress Njamah Bathing
-
Banking7 years ago
Sort Codes of GTBank Branches in Nigeria
-
Economy2 years ago
Subsidy Removal: CNG at N130 Per Litre Cheaper Than Petrol—IPMAN
-
Banking2 years ago
First Bank Announces Planned Downtime
-
Sports2 years ago
Highest Paid Nigerian Footballer – How Much Do Nigerian Footballers Earn
-
Technology4 years ago
How To Link Your MTN, Airtel, Glo, 9mobile Lines to NIN