Economy
MPC May Delay Hike in Rates Until January 2019—FSDH
By Dipo Olowookere
Ahead of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which kicks off tomorrow, analysts at Lagos-based FSDH Research have said the apex bank may not tamper with the monetary policy rate (MPR) until its January 2019 meeting.
Though the company noted that rising demand for foreign exchange leading to a consistent decline in the foreign reserves, and rising inflation rate were major justifications for an increase in policy rates, it maintained that the CBN may continue to use the conduct of Open Market Operations (OMO) to manage the temporary liquidity in the financial system that may affect price stability.
Business Post recalls that at its meeting in September 2018, the MPC maintained the MPR at 14 percent, with the asymmetric corridor at +200 and -500 basis points around the MPR; the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) at 22.50 percent and the Liquidity Ratio (LR) at 30 percent.
According to FSDH, a review of the global economy shows that global growth remains fairly strong, but trade restrictions may reduce global growth. This is according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which projects a global growth rate of 3.7 percent for 2018 and 2019.
The growth rate forecast is slightly lower than the growth rate projections the IMF released in July 2018. Although FSDH Research notes that despite the recent drop in the price of crude oil on the international market, the moderately strong global growth should sustain global crude oil prices around $70/b in the short-term.
FSDH Research says it expects the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the US Federal Reserve to raise the Federal Funds Rate (Fed Rate) by 0.25 percent when the committee meets in December 2018.
The October 2018 US unemployment rate at 3.7 percent (lower than the target of 6.5 percent), inflation rate of 2.5 percent (higher than the target of 2 percent) and the growth of 3.5 percent in the economy all support arguments for an interest rate increase.
The investment firm said an increase in the Fed Rate may further place additional demand pressure on foreign exchange in Nigeria and possibly increase capital flight from emerging markets. Thus, a rate cut in Nigeria is not appropriate under these situations.
It said the short-term forecast for the Nigerian economy shows that economic growth remains fragile. The IMF forecasts growth rates of 1.9 percent and 2.3 percent in 2018 and 2019 respectively. These growth rates are lower than the Nigerian population growth rate. Thus, the economy needs policy stimulus to record a growth rate that is inclusive. Nevertheless, monetary policy easing in the form of an interest rate cut may not stimulate growth. Appropriate fiscal measures and incentives that will improve the ease of doing business in Nigeria will lay strong foundation for sustainable growth.
The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) survey published by the CBN for the month of October 2018 expanded at a faster rate. FSDH Research attributes the expansion in the PMI to the increased economic activities that are usually associated with the last quarter of the year.
FSDH Research said it observed a consistent drawdown in the external reserves in order to maintain foreign exchange rate stability in Nigeria.
The CBN increased the supply of foreign exchange at the Investors’ and Exporters’ Foreign Exchange Window and increased the yield at the OMO to dowse demand pressure at the foreign exchange market.
Consequently, the drawdowns from the external reserves continued until November 2018. CBN remained the largest supplier of foreign exchange at the I & E window in the last three months.
FSDH Research noted that an attractive Nigerian Treasury Bill (NTB) yield around the current level of 16 percent may help to attract foreign portfolio investment and reduce capital flight.
Nevertheless, there is a need for deliberate fiscal measures and engagements that will promote non-oil exports that attract foreign investment into Nigeria and will guarantee foreign exchange stability.
The inflation rate increased to 11.28 percent in September 2018, the second increase since January 2017, principally due to the increase in the Food Index.
FSDH Research says it expects inflation rate to increase marginally to 11.34 percent in October and to end the year 2018 at 11.7 percent.
It said an increase in food prices, electioneering spending, and a possible increase in the minimum wage, are potential factors that will influence the direction of the inflation rate in the next three months.
Despite the expected rise in the inflation rate, it will be difficult for a hike in the interest rate to stem the rising inflation rate, as the cause of the rising inflation rate is not within the scope of monetary policy.
According to FSDH, the MPC may deal with the possible negative impact of an increase in the minimum wage at its January 2019 meeting. Thus a hold decision may be appropriate.
Data from the CBN shows that the key monetary aggregates in the country are below the target the CBN sets for the country. This development supports an argument for an expansionary policy to boost credit creation.
However, the current structural rigidities in the economy do not support strong credit growth. Therefore, unconventional policies are required to boost credit creation and business expansion to stimulate growth.
Measures that remove the risks inherent in the economy will encourage credit expansion and this will support sustainable growth.
Economy
Domestic Stock Market Witnesses Shortfall in Weekly Activity Level
By Dipo Olowookere
The level of activity at the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) shrank last week after a turnover of 4.373 billion shares worth N97.783 billion in 110,736 deals compared with the 6.617 billion shares worth N113.224 billion executed in 109,590 deals in the preceding week.
It was observed that the financial services industry led the activity chart by volume with 2.252 billion units sold for N47.204 billion in 44,808 deals, contributing 51.49 per cent and 48.27 per cent to the total trading volume and value, respectively.
The ICT sector traded 1.118 billion equities worth N13.148 billion in 10,413 deals, and the energy segment exchanged 233.891 million stocks valued at N4.726 billion in 7,515 deals.
eTranzact, Access Holdings, and FCMB accounted for 1.921 billion shares worth N22.218 billion in 9,558 deals, contributing 43.93 per cent and 22.72 per cent to the total trading volume and value apiece.
The best-performing equity was Morison Industries with a price appreciation of 32.49 per cent to sell for N4.69, Mecure Industries expanded by 27.35 per cent to N37.95, Japaul gained 26.27 per cent to finish at N2.66, Sovereign Trust Insurance improved by 17.24 per cent to N3.40, and PZ Cussons chalked up 16.19 per cent to settle at N47.00.
On the flip side, Eterna lost 14.93 per cent to quote at N30.20, UAC Nigeria declined by 14.26 per cent to N83.00, eTranzact shed 10.00 per cent to end at N12.60, Transcorp Hotels depreciated by 9.95 per cent to N155.60, and Chellarams crumbled by 9.90 per cent to N13.20.
In the five-day trading week, 49 equities appreciated versus 55 equities a week earlier, 41 shares depreciated versus 29 share in the previous week, and 57 stocks closed flat versus 63 stocks in the preceding week.
At the close of business for the week last Friday, the All-Share Index (ASI) was up by 1.63 per cent to 149,433.26 points and the market capitalisation rose by 1.64 per cent to N95.264 trillion.
In the same vein, all other indices finished higher apart from the banking, AFR Div. Yield, MERI Growth, MERI Value, energy, sovereign bond, and commodity indices, which depreciated by 0.12 per cent, 0.75 per cent, 1.07 per cent, 0.27 per cent, 0.13 per cent, 2.02 per cent, and 0.49 per cent, respectively.
Economy
Nigeria’s Tax Sovereignty Not Affected by Deal With France—FIRS
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Federal Inland Revenue Service (FIRS) has issued a statement providing further clarifications following comments and reports on the recent memorandum of understanding between Nigeria and France on taxation.
The MoU, signed on December 10, 2025, at the French Embassy in Abuja by the chairman of FIRS, Mr Zacch Adedeji and French Ambassador, Mr Marc Fonbaustier, on behalf of France’s Direction Générale des Finances Publiques (DGFiP), focuses on key areas, including digital transformation, workforce development, information exchange, transfer pricing, and tackling base erosion and profit shifting.
However, the MoU has been met with resistance from opposition coalition party African Democratic Congress (ADC) as well as Northern elders, which both raised serious questions about transparency, national sovereignty and the safety of Nigerian consumers’ data.
In response, the tax authority, which will become known as Nigerian Revenue Service (NRS) from next year, emphasised that the deal does not grant France access to Nigerian taxpayer data, digital systems, or any element of the country’s operational infrastructure.
“All existing Nigerian laws on data protection, cybersecurity, and sovereignty remain fully applicable and strictly enforced. The NRS, like its predecessor, FIRS, places the highest premium on national security and maintains rigorous standards for the protection of all taxpayer information.”
It said similar MoUs are signed by tax administrations around the world to promote collaboration, knowledge sharing, and the adoption of global best practices.
“The DGFIP is among the world’s most advanced tax authorities, with over a century of institutional experience and deep expertise in digital transformation, taxpayer services, governance, and public finance.
“This partnership simply enables Nigeria to learn from that experience. It is advisory, non-intrusive, and entirely under Nigeria’s control.
“Contrary to misconceptions, the MoU does not displace local technology providers, FIRS and the emerging Nigeria Revenue Service (NRS) continue to work closely with Nigerian innovators such as NIBSS, Interswitch, Paystack, and Flutterwave. The MoU does not include the provision of technical services; it is limited to knowledge sharing, institutional strengthening, workforce development, policy support, and best-practice guidance.
“We welcome robust public engagement on tax reforms, but such conversations must reflect the actual content and purpose of the agreement. Rather than undermining Nigeria’s sovereignty, this MoU strengthens it by helping to build a modern, capable, globally competitive tax administration one firmly in command of its systems, data, and strategic direction.
“FIRS remains committed to transparency, professionalism and partnership that advance Nigeria’s long-term economic development,” it said in a statement.
Economy
Nigeria Okays 28 Firms for Gas-flaring Monetisation Project
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) has issued permits to 28 companies under Nigerian Gas Flare Commercialisation Programme (NGFCP), a scheme that aims to end routine gas flaring to cut carbon emissions and use some of the gas to generate power.
Gas flaring is the controlled burning of natural gas that is released during oil extraction. The initiative marks a major step toward ending flaring and monetising wasted gas.
The projects could capture 250 to 300 million standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd) of gas currently flared, cut about 6 million tonnes of CO₂ annually, and unlock nearly 3 gigawatts of power generation potential, an NGFCP document showed.
Nigeria expects the initiative to attract up to $2 billion in investment and create more than 100,000 jobs. It could also produce 170,000 metric tonnes of LPG annually, providing clean cooking access for 1.4 million households.
The permits follow a competitive bid round that awarded 49 flare sites to 42 bidders after the programme was restructured post-COVID-19 and the Petroleum Industry Act.
Speaking on this, Mr Gbenga Komolafe, head of the NUPRC, during the presentation of the certificates to the 28 companies said, “The NGFCP is a pillar in our quest to eliminate routine flaring, reduce emissions, and enhance Nigeria’s global credibility in energy transition commitments.”
The programme aligns with Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan and aims to turn flare gas from an environmental liability into an economic asset.
The 28 companies have signed key agreements, including Connection, Milestone Development and Gas Sales Agreements, and now qualify for permits to access flare gas.
Producers will benefit from reduced liabilities, improved Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) performance and alignment with the government’s decarbonisation agenda.
Development partners, including Power Africa, KPMG, World Bank’s Global Gas Flaring Reduction initiative, USAID and financiers, have supported the programme with technical and commercial frameworks.
Mr Komolafe said while the permits mark a milestone, engineering, construction and financing must begin in earnest.
“The real work starts now,” the official added. “This programme will create economic, industrial and environmental value while strengthening Nigeria’s energy transition.”
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