Economy
Naira Shortage Threatens Nigerian Businesses—Report
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
A report published by Bloomberg has revealed that Nigerian businesses are now battling with shortage of Naira, after overcoming the worry of getting Dollar to carry out their operations.
The article titled ‘Unintended Result of Nigerian Dollar Hunt Is Naira Shortage’ and published on Thursday, September 21, 2017, stated that a central bank requirement that companies back forward dollar purchases with naira is drying up supplies, helping to underpin a 2.1 percent gain since the local currency fell to a record low against the greenback on Aug. 9.
At the same time, an increase in government borrowing is spurring banks to invest in the safety of sovereign debt rather than lending to businesses or consumers, also draining cash out of the system.
Some banks demand naira deposits of as much as 1.5 times the amount of dollars sought in the 60-day forwards market to guard against fluctuations in the currency, said Ayodeji Aboderin, chief financial officer for May & Baker Nigeria Plc, a Lagos-based pharmaceutical and food processing company. That is pressuring the company’s own cash flow, he said. The difference is returned to the company on the delivery of the contracts, with the amount depending on how the currencies have moved.
“Money you would have used as working capital will be taken upfront by the bank,’’ Aboderin said. “Last year, it was more of dollar illiquidity. This year, it is naira illiquidity.”
May & Baker, which is building the country’s first vaccine plant, is responding by cutting production at its water-bottling and instant-noodle units, and focusing on more profitable pharmaceutical lines, Aboderin said. Interest rates on loans have also soared to as high as 25 percent, more than double the rate May & Baker is comfortable paying, he said. Nigerian inflation eased to 16.05 percent last month after reaching a record 18.7 percent in January.
Within Limits
The currency rule, introduced in January, is one of a series of measures aimed at managing dollar flows after a decline in the price and output of crude oil, which accounts for about two-thirds of government revenue. The regulator sells dollars directly to lenders on an almost weekly basis, which then supply these to their customers.
By depositing cash with lenders, companies are able to assure the regulator that they have the money to buy the foreign currency, said Yinka Sanni, chief executive officer for Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc. The amount of naira required depends on the customer’s balance sheet strength, he said.
“It is within the rules. It is a product that is acceptable and endorsed by the regulator,” Sanni said. “No bank is doing anything outside the rules. If they were, the CEO would have been cautioned by the central bank.’’
A spokesman for the central bank didn’t respond to calls and emailed messages seeking comment. The naira was down 1.25% at 361.5 per dollar in the interbank market as of 16.13 p.m. in Lagos on Thursday.
Limiting Access
Special auctions that are being used by the central bank to make “massive injections of cash” to the government, effectively raised banks’ cash-reserve requirements beyond the stipulated 22.5 percent, said Monetary Policy Committee Doyin Salami, who has previously been critical of the policies of Governor Godwin Emefiele.
“We thus find ourselves at a point where government borrowing from the central bank is neutralized by raising the cash-reserve ratio of banks, thereby limiting private-sector access to credit,” Salami said after the monetary policy committee’s July 24-25 meeting, according to a central bank statement published Tuesday.
Nigeria sold 364-day bills at a yield of 17 percent and 182-day securities at 16.8 percent at an auction on Wednesday, according to the regulator.
“The Central Bank of Nigeria’s efforts have in many ways helped stabilize the foreign-exchange market,” said Omotola Abimbola, a banking analyst at Afrinvest West Africa Ltd. in Lagos. “But the unintended consequence has been that banks have restricted credit extension to the private sector due to the high yields on government securities as well as low risk appetite.”
Growth in credit extended to the private sector slowed to 0.9 percent this year through July, compared with 19.8 percent in 2016, according to central bank data. Policy makers need to tackle a lot more than dollar liquidity to bolster economic growth and reduce the country’s dependence on oil, Abimbola said. This would include easing monetary policy by lowering interest rates from a record high, addressing infrastructural shortcomings, such as road, rail and power, and improving the productivity of state institutions, he said.
Nigeria’s economy expanded 0.55 percent in the three months through June, ending five straight quarters of contractions that saw gross domestic product shrink 1.6 percent in 2016, the first drop since 1991. The improvement came after oil output increased and authorities boosted the supply of foreign currency needed by manufacturers to import supplies.
Flour Mills of Nigeria Plc, the country’s biggest miller by market value, is planning to issue as much as 40 billion naira in bonds next year and is also considering a rights issue to enable it to deal with funding challenges arising from a scarcity of naira and high interest rates, Managing Director Paul Gbededo said.
“Continued tightness in the market will keep interest rates high,” said Pabina Yinkere, an analyst at Vetiva Capital Management in Lagos. “High interest rates increase the probability of default and make banks cautious in growing loans, particularly to SMEs. If banks do not lend it affects overall economic activity and stalls growth.’’
Source: Bloomberg
Economy
UAE to Leave OPEC May 1
By Adedapo Adesanya
The United Arab Emirates has announced its decision to quit the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to focus on national interests.
This dealt a heavy blow to the oil-exporting group at a time when the US-Israel war on Iran had caused a historic energy shock and rattled the global economy.
The move, which will take effect on May 1, 2026, reflects “the UAE’s long-term strategic and economic vision and evolving energy profile”, a statement carried by state media said on Tuesday.
“During our time in the organisation, we made significant contributions and even greater sacrifices for the benefit of all,” it added. “However, the time has come to focus our efforts on what our national interest dictates.”
The loss of the UAE, a longstanding OPEC member, could create disarray and weaken the oil cartel, which has usually sought to show a united front despite internal disagreements over a range of issues from geopolitics to production quotas.
UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mohamed al-Mazrouei said the decision was taken after a careful look at the regional power’s energy strategies.
“This is a policy decision. It has been done after a careful look at current and future policies related to the level of production,” the minister said.
OPEC’s Gulf producers have already been struggling to ship exports through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow chokepoint between Iran and Oman through which a fifth of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas supplies normally pass, because of threats and attacks against vessels during the war.
The UAE had been a member of OPEC first through its emirate of Abu Dhabi in 1967 and later when it became its own country in 1971.
The oil cartel, based in Vienna, has seen some of its market power wane as the US has increased its production of crude oil in recent years.
Additionally, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have increasingly competed over economic issues and regional politics, particularly in the Red Sea area.
The two countries had joined a coalition to fight against Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis in 2015. However, that coalition broke down into recriminations in late December when Saudi Arabia bombed what it described as a weapons shipment bound for Yemeni separatists backed by the UAE.
Economy
NASD OTC Exchange Inches Up 0.03% as CSCS Outshines Four Price Decliners
By Adedapo Adesanya
Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc bested four price decliners on the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange on Monday, April 27. The alternative stock market opened the week bullish during the session with a 0.03 per cent uptick.
According to data, the security depository company added N2.61 to its share price to close at N76.26 per unit compared with the preceding session’s N78.87 per unit.
As a result, the market capitalisation of the platform increased by N820 million to N2.425 trillion from N2.424 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) gained 1.38 points to finish at 4,053.97 points compared with the 4,052.58 points it ended last Friday.
The four price losers were led by NASD Plc, which slumped by N3.80 to sell at N34.70 per share versus N38.50 per share. FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc fell by N1.45 to N98.10 per unit from N99.55 per unit, Food Concepts Plc slid by 27 Kobo to N2.43 per share from N2.70 per share, and Geo-Fluids Plc dipped by 9 Kobo to N2.91 per unit from N3.00 per unit.
The value of securities transacted by market participants went down by 82.0 per cent to N7.4 million from N41.3 million units, the volume of securities declined by 28.5 per cent to 319,831 units from 447,403 units, and the number of deals dropped by 34.1 per cent to 29 deals from 44 deals.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc was the most active stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by CSCS Plc with 59.6 million units sold for N4.0 billion, and Okitipupa Plc with 27.8 million units exchanged for N1.9 billion.
Also, GNI Plc was the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units traded for N415.7 million, and Infrastructure Guarantee Credit Plc with a turnover of 400 million units worth N1.2 billion.
Economy
Naira Opens Week Weaker at N1,364/$ at NAFEX After N5.80 Loss
By Adedapo Adesanya
The first trading day of the week in the currency market was bearish for the Naira in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Monday, April 27.
Yesterday, it lost N5.80 or 0.43 per cent against the United States Dollar to trade at N1,364.24/$1, in contrast to the N1,358.44/$1 it was traded last Friday.
In the same vein, the Nigerian currency depreciated against the Pound Sterling in the official market by N13.70 to close at N1,847.72/£1 versus the preceding session’s N1,834.02/£1, and slumped against the Euro by N11.56 to sell at N1,602.29/€1 versus N1,590.73/€1.
Also, the Nigerian Naira tumbled against the greenback during the trading day by N5 to quote at N1,385/$1 compared with the previous rate of N1,380/$1, and at the GTBank FX desk, it traded flat at N1,370/$1.
The poor performance of the domestic currency could be attributed to liquidity shortage at the official currency market on Monday, which came amid surging demand for international payments. At $76.50 million, interbank liquidity printed higher across 79 deals, up from the $43.572 million reported on Friday.
Nigeria’s gross external reserves declined to $48.45 billion amid a month-long decline in inflows, amid uncertainties in the global commodity market. The depletion of foreign reserves could be partly attributed to the Central Bank of Nigeria’s intervention in the FX market.
The market remains perturbed by persistent concerns over liquidity constraints, policy transparency, and weakening confidence in Nigeria’s FX market, while boosters, including oil prices, continue to look rocky due to stalled discussions and unclear ceasefire negotiations between the US and Iran.
A look at the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) has been rejected near $79,000 three times in eight sessions, leaving the level as the de facto ceiling of its current trading range even as major cryptocurrencies trade lower over the past day. It lost 0.9 per cent to sell at $77,003.61.
Analysts say that upcoming US Federal Reserve policy decisions and top tech firms’ earnings this week could provide the catalyst to push bitcoin decisively above $80,000.
The market also continued to weigh Iran’s interim deal proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which failed to advance over the weekend. The White House said US officials were discussing the latest Iranian proposal but maintained “red lines” on any deal to end the eight-week war.
Solana (SOL) dropped 1.8 per cent to $84.25, Ripple (XRP) went down by 1.6 per cent to $1.39, Ethereum (ETH) depreciated by 1.3 per cent to $2,290.00, Binance Coin (BNB) declined by 0.5 per cent to $625.18, and Cardano (ADA) fell by 0.2 per cent to $0.2480.
However, Dogecoin (DOGE) rose by 2.0 per cent to $0.1002, and TRON (TRX) appreciated by 0.2 per cent to $0.3242, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 apiece.
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