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Economy

Nigeria Changes Base Year of GDP Data to 2019

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0.51% GDP Growth

By Adedapo Adesanya

The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) has announced the rebasing of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data, with 2019 selected as the new base year from the previous 2010.

The GDP is used to gauge the size of the Nigerian economy.

This decision, according to the NBS, was driven by the year’s status as a period of “relative economic stability” compared to other recent years, which were marked by significant economic shocks.

This was disclosed on Thursday during a sensitisation workshop on GDP and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebasing, organised by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group and the stats office in Lagos.

Speaking during his presentation, Mr Moses Waniko, the Technical Assistant to the Statistician General also said “Some major surveys that served as inputs into the rebasing covered this period. 2020, 2021 and 2022 were avoided as base years due to economic instabilities – this follows IMF guidelines.”

The agency noted further that 2019 was chosen because “other sector-specific administrative data for this period were collected.”

He noted further that the newly rebased GDP figures would be unveiled by the end of January.

In October 2024, the NBS revealed its plans to rebase both the GDP and CPI to reflect current economic realities and account for structural changes in the economy.

Mr Waniko explained that the data collection process is nearing completion.

However, he said the results will still need to undergo validation before the official launch at the end of the month.

“We’re currently concluding the rebasing. We need to validate the results, and then we have to do a launch; we are looking at the end of January to do that launch, to disseminate the numbers, and then, usually, there are post-rebasing activities that will happen.”

He noted several key benefits the rebased GDP would have on the national economy.

He also emphasised that the GDP rebasing should be viewed not only in terms of aggregate numbers but also in terms of their distribution, weights, and contributions across different sectors.

“It is good to look at the rebasing from different angles, not just the aggregate numbers, but to look at what those numbers are supposed to tell us, in terms of the distribution, the aggregate numbers, in terms of their weights, contributions and the rest.

“Beyond that, there are other implications for the national economy, which we have tried to put in this slide. The first is rebasing will provide or allow for an Economic and Development Plan.

“The second is that the rebasing will really help to provide a good trajectory for the economy. So beyond this, it’s important to also state that after the rebasing, there are certain things that we expect that might change, such as changes in the size of the structure of the economy.

“We expect that the size of the economy will be bigger.”

“The tax-to-GDP ratio is something that people may want to see what the numbers would look like. Debt to GDP ratio of 18.5 per cent as of September 2019 could also reduce with the bigger size of the GDP, and then per-capita income will increase after the rebasing,” he added.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

Economy

MTN, Oando, RT Briscoe 35 Others Sink Local Stock Exchange by 0.33%

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RT Briscoe money market fund

By Dipo Olowookere

The Nigerian Exchange tasted another defeat on Wednesday after it closed lower by 0.33 per cent due to profit-taking, especially in MTN Nigeria, Oando, UBA, and others.

The selling pressure was triggered by the desire of investors to recaliberate their portfolios and this saw 38 shares end in the red territory as only 32 shares finished in the green side, implying a negative market breadth index and weak investor sentiment.

According to data from Customs Street, RT Briscoe suffered the heaviest lost after it shed 9.97 per cent to trade at N6.50, May and Baker depreciated by 9.96 per cent to N35.25, Ikeja Hotel slumped by 9.92 per cent to N32.25, Living Trust Mortgage Bank lost 9.90 per cent to settle at N4.64, and eTranzact dipped by 9.16 per cent to N17.35.

At the other side of the coin, Union Homes REIT was the biggest price gainer after it improved its value by 9.97 per cent to N94.85, Deap Capital grew by 9.97 per cent to N9.49, Tantalizers appreciated by 9.92 per cent to N3.88, and SAHCO advanced by 9.91 per cent to N128.60.

Leading the activity chart yesterday was Neimeth, which traded 58.1 million equities for N590.6 million, Chams sold 39.4 million stocks worth N190.6 million, Access Holdings exchanged 33.4 million shares valued at N757.5 million, Zenith Bank transacted 32.4 million equities worth N2.3 billion, and Tantalizers recorded a turnover of 29.2 million shares valued at N109.8 million.

At the close of transactions, 631.2 million stocks exchanged hands for N16.5 billion in 42,172 deals at midweek compared with the 483.1 million stocks worth N17.4 billion recorded in 41,499 deals a day earlier, showing a fall in the trading value by 5.17 per cent, and an increase in the trading volume and number of deals by 30.66 per cent and 1.62 per cent apiece.

As for the key performance indices, they were down, with the All-Share Index (ASI) losing 549.44 points to settle at 165,164.38 points compared with the preceding say’s 165,713.82 points and the market capitalisation giving up N352 billion to end at N105.737 trillion versus Tuesday’s N106.089 trillion.

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Economy

Iran Concerns, Weak Dollar Lift Brent Crude to $68 Per Barrel

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Brent crude futures

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Brent crude grade gained 1.23 per cent or 83 cents to trade at $68.40 per barrel on Wednesday amid looming Iran concerns, supported by a weak US Dollar.

In the same vein, the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude appreciated by 82 cents or 1.31 per cent to trade at $63.21 per barrel.

US President Donald Trump urged Iran on Wednesday to come to the table and make a deal on ‌nuclear weapons or the next US attack would be far worse, but Tehran said that if ​that happened it would fight back as never before.

“A massive Armada is heading to Iran. It is moving quickly, with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose,” President Trump said in a post on his social media platform Truth Social on Wednesday.

US Central Command said Monday that the Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group had arrived in the Middle East “to promote regional security and stability.”

The American President had threatened to attack Iran if it killed protestors during a mass uprising earlier this month. Thousands of people died after the Islamic Republic cracked down on the unrest. But the U.S. president has held back from military intervention so far.

He also warned Iran that a possible attack would be worse than the bombing campaign he ordered last June on the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities.

A weak US Dollar kept the prices elevated as it neared four-year lows against a basket of other currencies, making ‍dollar-denominated commodities such as oil cheaper for those holding other currencies.

Meanwhile, in its first monetary policy decision of 2026, the Federal Reserve elected to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50 per cent–3.75 per cent, pausing further cuts after three reductions late last year.

The decision, made at the January 27–28 Federal Open Market Committee meeting, reflects a cautious stance amid mixed economic signals and persistent inflation above target.

The FOMC statement shows that while economic activity “has been expanding at a solid moderate pace,” job gains have slowed and the unemployment rate has only “shown some signs of stabilization,” leading policymakers to resist further easing for now.

Negotiations between Russia, Ukraine and the US are set to resume in Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on February 1.

Crude oil inventories in the US decreased by 2.3 million barrels during the week ending January 24, according to new data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) released on Wednesday. The EIA’s data release follows figures by the American Petroleum Institute (API) that were released a day earlier, which suggested that crude oil inventories fell by 247,000 barrels.

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Economy

Persistent Grid Collapse Poses Direct Threat to Manufacturers, MSMEs—LCCI

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LCCI

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has decried the frequent grid disturbances, saying they pose a grave threat to the economy, particularly to manufacturers and small businesses.

The LCCI concern came after the second national grid collapse within four days on Tuesday, which plunged the country into widespread outage and disrupted economic activity nationwide. It followed up from the 12 of such occurrences which were recorded in 2025.

Speaking about the issue, the director general of LCCI, Mrs Chinyere Almona, said, “This recurrence underscores deep structural and operational weaknesses in the power transmission system and poses a direct threat to manufacturers, MSMEs, and Nigeria’s overall business environment at a critical moment when the economy is expected to move from crisis management and stabilisation (2023–2025) into a consolidation phase in 2026.”

According to her, based on recent patterns and in the absence of urgent structural fixes, the LCCI estimates that Nigeria could experience tens of grid collapses in 2026 under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario.

She noted that with immediate reforms, system upgrades, and strict operational discipline, this figure can be reduced to zero incidents, moving the country closer to grid reliability benchmarks required for economic consolidation.

Mrs Almona noted that repeated grid failures impose severe costs on businesses through lost production hours, damaged equipment, increased reliance on self-generation, higher operating expenses, and reduced competitiveness, saying that these disruptions weaken investor confidence, worsen inflationary pressures, and undermine the credibility of economic reforms.

She called on the federal government to take a decisive and transparent position by instituting an independent forensic audit of the national grid covering transmission infrastructure integrity, system protection schemes, operational protocols, and governance of grid management, adding that the findings should form a critical part of a grid performance system reform in the short term.

“Without urgent intervention, recurring grid collapses will continue to undermine the government’s objective of entering a consolidation phase in 2026, while constraining productivity, exports, and job creation. A reliable power supply is foundational to industrialisation, competitiveness, and macroeconomic stability.

“The Chamber reiterates that restoring grid stability must be treated as an economic emergency, not merely a technical issue. At this stage, the causes of these collapses should be well understood, better managed, and effectively prevented. What we are witnessing today is therefore unacceptable and calls for decisive, coordinated action to safeguard national economic performance,” the LCCI DG said.

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