Nigeria Falls Short OPEC Quota Despite 35,000b/d Boost in October

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s daily crude oil production increased from 1.39 million barrels per day to 1.43 million barrels per day in October 2024, according to the November 2024 monthly oil market report from the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which reflects supply data for the previous month.

The report indicated that Nigeria added approximately 35,000 barrels per day to its crude production.

Despite this, Nigeria is still producing below the OPEC quota for 2024 which was set at 1.5 million barrels per day. It is also far from the 1.78 million barrels per day projection set in the 2024 budget by the Bola Tinubu administration.

Nigeria’s challenges are caused by underinvestment which have been worsened by security challenges like oil theft and pipeline vandalism. Efforts to quell these have recorded progress, but remain.

Data sourced from secondary channels also confirms that Nigeria remains Africa’s leading crude oil producer, despite not meeting its OPEC production quota.

Libya ranks as the second-largest crude oil producer in Africa, followed by Algeria, Congo, Gabon, and Equatorial Guinea.

OPEC’s secondary sources, derived from independent agencies or organizations, are used to estimate and report crude oil production levels of member countries.

These sources ensure transparency and consistency in assessing production figures, reducing reliance on data self-reported by the member states.

Meanwhile, the report highlights a discrepancy in data from direct sources, which show Nigeria’s crude oil production merely increased by just 9,000 barrels per day, reaching 1.33 million barrels per day in October 2024.

According to secondary sources, OPEC-12’s total crude oil production averaged 26.53 million barrels per day in October 2024, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 604 thousand barrels per day.

Crude oil output saw a decline in Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, while production increased in Libya, Nigeria, and Congo.

Meanwhile, total crude oil production from non-OPEC DoC members averaged 13.8  million barrels per day in October 2024, marking a month-on-month increase of 466 thousand barrels per day.