Economy
Nigeria Likely to Adopt Single Exchange Rate 2020—Fitch
By Dipo Olowookere
The multiple exchange rate system operated by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has been talked about and kicked against by several financial experts and economists in and outside the country. They have always argued that the system was absurd.
In the wake of this present administration, former CBN Governor and now Emir of Kano, Mr Sanusi Lamido, said the system was making few individuals millionaires and billionaires at the expense of the nation.
This is because the central bank has a rate of N305 per Dollar that is far lesser than the rates at the black market as well as the investors and exporters forex window of N363 to a Dollar.
The traditional ruler had argued that with the present system, it was easy for few powerful Nigerians to obtain forex at the interbank rate and make a profit of over N50 per Dollar selling to black market traders.
But the CBN has always argued that it would gradually unify the different rates at the forex market segments.
Business Post reports that the major market windows in the country are the Interbank, Investors & Exporters, Bureau De Change (BDC) and the black market.
Recently, renowned rating agency, Fitch, released a report, where it said the country’s apex bank will likely not carry out any forex reform this year but in 2020.
Before the February 2019 presidential, which was won by the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari, his opponent at the poll, Mr Atiku Abubaker, had promised a unification of the rates to allow a more free-market.
With the election over, Fitch said in the short-term, “We believe that there will be little change to Nigeria’s current exchange rate regime in the immediate aftermath of the February 2019 general election.
“The official interbank rate currently sits at N305.87/$, while the ‘investor and export’ window (also known as the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Rate, NAFEX) is trading at N362.68/$.
“The official interbank rate is officially pegged to the US dollar at the current level and used primarily as a reference rate for transactions by the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC).
“The NAFEX rate – at which investors, importers and non-state oil exporters buy and sell FX – is ostensibly free-floating but is also in effect managed.
“We believe that the authorities will remain determined – and able – to hold rates around their existing levels in the months ahead,” Fitch said in the report obtained by Business Post.
In terms of ability, Nigeria’s total gross reserves stood at $43.1 billion in late January – some 6.2 percent above levels seen at this point last year.
Import cover stands at more than 8 months, which although down from the October 2017 level of more than nine months is well above Nigeria’s recent low of 4.8 months in 2014.
“This level of reserves will give the authorities the resources to keep the market supplied in the context of slowing dollar inflows,” the agency stated.
Fitch said it has the strong believe that in the long-term, “We expect a shift away from the multi-tiered exchange rate and a consolidation of exchange rates, initially around the prevailing NAFEX level.
“However, this is unlikely to take place in 2019, and we thus expect the interbank rate – the rate that we forecast – to end the year at N306/$.
“Rather, we believe it is far more likely to take place in 2020, alongside the projected completion of the 650,000bbl/day Dangote oil refinery,” it said.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria’s downstream oil and gas sector imported petrol worth N1.02 trillion in the third quarter of 2018 alone. The coming online of the refinery will go some of the way towards easing the size of the import bill and making the effective devaluation of the interbank rate (which is used primarily for fuel imports) less painful.
“We thus expect the new Naira rate to end the year at some N370$.
“Following the unification, we believe that a gradual depreciation of the new Naira rate is likely. The authorities are likely to continue heavily managing its exchange rate regime.
“However, deteriorating fundamentals will put downward pressure on the currency. This underpins our forecast that the Naira will end 2020 at N370/$, and will continue to depreciate steadily thereafter.
“We expect the price of Brent crude to average $75.0/bbl in 2019 and $82.0/bbl in 2020, and while this is an improvement on the $71.7/bbl in 2018, oil prices will remain well below their 2011-14 highs, and risks are weighted to the downside,” Fitch said.
“Our Oil & Gas team currently see limited growth in the sector beyond 2019 given a very restricted pipeline of projects, although there is an upside risk that genuine reform of the industry will spur a resurgence in much needed investment.
“In the context of only muted growth in oil revenues, we expect the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to allow the unified rate to devalue slowly in a bid to ease the pressure on reserves,” it concluded.
Economy
UK Backs Nigeria With Two Flagship Economic Reform Programmes
By Adedapo Adesanya
The United Kingdom via the British High Commission in Abuja has launched two flagship economic reform programmes – the Nigeria Economic Stability & Transformation (NEST) programme and the Nigeria Public Finance Facility (NPFF) -as part of efforts to support Nigeria’s economic reform and growth agenda.
Backed by a £12.4 million UK investment, NEST and NPFF sit at the centre of the UK-Nigeria mutual growth partnership and support Nigeria’s efforts to strengthen macroeconomic stability, improve fiscal resilience, and create a more competitive environment for investment and private-sector growth.
Speaking at the launch, Cynthia Rowe, Head of Development Cooperation at the British High Commission in Abuja, said, “These two programmes sit at the heart of our economic development cooperation with Nigeria. They reflect a shared commitment to strengthening the fundamentals that matter most for our stability, confidence, and long-term growth.”
The launch followed the inaugural meeting of the Joint UK-Nigeria Steering Committee, which endorsed the approach of both programmes and confirmed strong alignment between the UK and Nigeria on priority areas for delivery.
Representing the Government of Nigeria, Special Adviser to the President of Nigeria on Finance and the Economy, Mrs Sanyade Okoli, welcomed the collaboration, touting it as crucial to current, critical reforms.
“We welcome the United Kingdom’s support through these new programmes as a strong demonstration of our shared commitment to Nigeria’s economic stability and long-term prosperity. At a time when we are implementing critical reforms to strengthen fiscal resilience, improve macroeconomic stability, and unlock inclusive growth, this partnership will provide valuable technical support. Together, we are laying the foundation for a more resilient economy that delivers sustainable development and improved livelihoods for all Nigerians.”
On his part, Mr Jonny Baxter, British Deputy High Commissioner in Lagos, highlighted the significance of the programmes within the wider UK-Nigeria mutual growth partnership.
“NEST and NPFF are central to our shared approach to strengthening the foundations that underpin long-term economic prosperity. They sit firmly within the UK-Nigeria mutual growth partnership.”
Economy
MTN Nigeria, SMEDAN to Boost SME Digital Growth
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
A strategic partnership aimed at accelerating the growth, digital capacity, and sustainability of Nigeria’s 40 million Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) has been signed by MTN Nigeria and the Small and Medium Enterprises Development Agency of Nigeria (SMEDAN).
The collaboration will feature joint initiatives focused on digital inclusion, financial access, capacity building, and providing verified information for MSMEs.
With millions of small businesses depending on accurate guidance and easy-to-access support, MTN and SMEDAN say their shared platform will address gaps in communication, misinformation, and access to opportunities.
At the formal signing of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) on Thursday, November 27, 2025, in Lagos, the stage was set for the immediate roll-out of tools, content, and resources that will support MSMEs nationwide.
The chief operating officer of MTN Nigeria, Mr Ayham Moussa, reiterated the company’s commitment to supporting Nigeria’s economic development, stating that MSMEs are the lifeline of Nigeria’s economy.
“SMEs are the backbone of the economy and the backbone of employment in Nigeria. We are delighted to power SMEDAN’s platform and provide tools that help MSMEs reach customers, obtain funding, and access wider markets. This collaboration serves both our business and social development objectives,” he stated.
Also, the Chief Enterprise Business Officer of MTN Nigeria, Ms Lynda Saint-Nwafor, described the MoU as a tool to “meet SMEs at the point of their needs,” noting that nano, micro, small, and medium businesses each require different resources to scale.
“Some SMEs need guidance, some need resources; others need opportunities or workforce support. This platform allows them to access whatever they need. We are committed to identifying opportunities across financial inclusion, digital inclusion, and capacity building that help SMEs to scale,” she noted.
Also commenting, the Director General of SMEDAN, Mr Charles Odii, emphasised the significance of the collaboration, noting that the agency cannot meet its mandate without leveraging technology and private-sector expertise.
“We have approximately 40 million MSMEs in Nigeria, and only about 400 SMEDAN staff. We cannot fulfil our mandate without technology, data, and strong partners.
“MTN already has the infrastructure and tools to support MSMEs from payments to identity, hosting, learning, and more. With this partnership, we are confident we can achieve in a short time what would have taken years,” he disclosed.
Mr Odii highlighted that the SMEDAN-MTN collaboration would support businesses across their growth needs, guided by their four-point GROW model – Guidance, Resources, Opportunities, and Workforce Development.
He added that SMEDAN has already created over 100,000 jobs within its two-year administration and expects the partnership to significantly boost job creation, business expansion, and nationwide enterprise modernisation.
Economy
NGX Seeks Suspension of New Capital Gains Tax
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited is seeking review of the controversial Capital Gains Tax increase, fearing it will chase away foreign investors from the country’s capital market.
Nigeria’s new tax regime, which takes effect from January 1, 2026, represents one of the most significant changes to Nigeria’s tax system in recent years.
Under the new rules, the flat 10 per cent Capital Gains Tax rate has been replaced by progressive income tax rates ranging from zero to 30 per cent, depending on an investor’s overall income or profit level while large corporate investors will see the top rate reduced to 25 per cent as part of a wider corporate tax reform.
The chief executive of NGX, Mr Jude Chiemeka, said in a Bloomberg interview in Kigali, Rwanda that there should be a “removal of the capital gains tax completely, or perhaps deferring it for five years.”
According to him, Nigeria, having a higher Capital Gains Tax, will make investors redirect asset allocation to frontier markets and “countries that have less tax.”
“From a capital flow perspective, we should be concerned because all these international portfolio managers that invest across frontier markets will certainly go to where the cost of investing is not so burdensome,” the CEO said, as per Bloomberg. “That is really the angle one will look at it from.”
Meanwhile, the policy has been defended by the chairman of the Presidential Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms Committee, Mr Taiwo Oyedele, who noted that the new tax will make investing in the capital market more attractive by reducing risks, promoting fairness, and simplifying compliance.
He noted that the framework allows investors to deduct legitimate costs such as brokerage fees, regulatory charges, realised capital losses, margin interest, and foreign exchange losses directly tied to investments, thereby ensuring that they are not taxed when operating at a loss.
Mr Oyedele also said the reforms introduced a more inclusive approach to taxation by exempting several categories of investors and transactions.
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