Economy
Nigeria May Exit Recession in Q2 2021 if…—LCCI
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI) has said that the worst is over following the contraction that led to Nigeria’s economy entering into another recession.
On a Saturday, Business Post reported that Nigeria’s economy contracted by 3.62 per cent in the third quarter of the year after 6.1 per cent decline in the second quarter of the year, which the chamber considered as not surprising.
Reacting to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) quarterly report, the Director-General of LCCI, Mr Muda Yusuf, noted that the latest numbers, which revealed that the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) recorded negative growth of 3.62 per cent in the third quarter of 2020, was expected.
According to him, the violence that trailed the peaceful #EndSARS campaign might cause another negative growth in the fourth quarter.
Mr Yusuf said that the protests and the destruction that followed were major setbacks for the nation’s economic recovery prospects.
He, however, expressed hopes that the economy would resume to the path of growth in the first or second quarter of 2021, barring any new disruptions to the economy.
“From an economic perspective, 2020 has been a very bad year; the worst in recent history.
“We are faced with the double jeopardy of a stumbling economy and spiralling inflation.
“The October inflation numbers of 14.23 per cent was the highest in 10 months, a condition which in economic parlance is characterised as stagflation.
“The effects of these developments are evident in businesses and in households.
“Regrettably, and as if these were not bad enough, the business community continues to grapple with unfavourable policy, institutional and regulatory challenges impeding investment,” he said.
The LCCI DG, however, said to facilitate quick recovery, there was the need to restore normalcy to the foreign exchange market by broadening the scope of market expression in the allocation mechanism.
He said, “The ports system, especially the key institutions in the international trade processes, need to be more investment-friendly.”
“We should show greater commitment to the fixing of the structural issues to reduce production and operating costs for investors in the economy,” he said.
Mr Yusuf said that following the #EndSARS experience, the state of internal security had begun to impact negatively on investors’ confidence, adding that security presence was becoming less visible, especially in the major cities, with psychological effects which, he said, could adversely affect investment and economic recovery.
“We appreciate the setback suffered by the police as a result of the recent protests and we empathize with them.
“But we need to give security confidence to citizens and investors.
“Incidents of kidnapping, banditry, herders-farmer clashes have not abated and these also have grave implications for investments,” he said.
Economy
Dangote, GCL Seal 25-year Gas Supply Deal for Ethiopian Fertiliser Plant
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
A $4.2 billion gas deal aimed to power a fertiliser project in Ethiopia has been signed between Nigeria’s Dangote Industries Limited and China’s GCL Group.
The Chinese firm is expected to supply stable natural gas to Dangote Group’s upcoming 3‑million‑tonne‑per‑year urea fertiliser production complex in Ethiopia for 25 years.
The natural gas supplied by GCL will be sourced from the Calub Gas Field in Ethiopia’s Ogaden Basin and delivered via a dedicated 108‑kilometre pipeline directly to the Dangote fertiliser complex in Gode, Somali Region.
The initiative aligns with Africa’s broader objective of establishing an integrated energy‑to‑food value chain, leveraging local resources to drive industrial autonomy.
The fertiliser plant, valued at $2.5 billion, is being developed under a 60:40 equity structure between Dangote Group and Ethiopian Investment Holdings (EIH), respectively, and is scheduled to begin operations in 2029.
Once commissioned, it will become East Africa’s largest modern fertiliser production hub, fully meeting Ethiopia’s current urea import demand while supplying neighbouring regional markets.
The project is expected to significantly reshape East Africa’s fertiliser landscape, reducing reliance on imports and strengthening agricultural self‑sufficiency.
“Africa’s energy industry cannot continue indefinitely exporting raw materials while importing finished products. We must pursue a new path of highly autonomous development.
“Through seamless integration and strategic cooperation with GCL, we will achieve an efficient closed‑loop value chain from natural gas extraction to fertiliser production, taking a crucial step toward enabling Africa to secure greater autonomy over its food security,” Mr Aliko Dangote said at the signing ceremony in Lagos.
The Chairman of GCL Group, Mr Zhu Gongshan, also reaffirmed the company’s confidence in the partnership, noting that the agreement was made possible through the facilitation and support of the Ethiopian government.
“This cooperation will enable both sides to expand new frontiers in Ethiopia’s energy, chemical, and food security sectors while transitioning from a business going global model toward a mutually beneficial ecosystem‑based framework.
“Leveraging GCL’s integrated oil and gas operations in Ethiopia and Dangote Group’s extensive industrial footprint across Africa, the partnership will significantly enhance our service capabilities and market reach across the continent.”
Economy
Tinubu Tasks Oyedele with Fiscal Reforms as Minister of State for Finance
By Adedapo Adesanya
President Bola Tinubu has sworn in Mr Taiwo Oyedele as the new Minister of State for Finance, tasking him with fiscal reforms aimed at improving government revenue and strengthening Nigeria’s economic management framework.
He took his oath of office before the President at the Presidential Villa, Abuja, on Monday.
President Tinubu nominated Mr Oyedele for the new role on March 3, 2026, to replace Mrs Doris Uzoka-Anite, who was moved to serve as the Minister of State for Budget and National Planning.
On March 11, the Senate confirmed him after a screening session, where the tax expert pledged to pursue fiscal reforms aimed at improving government revenue, ensuring realistic budgeting, and strengthening Nigeria’s economic management framework.
He was cleared by the lawmakers through a voice vote at the Committee of the Whole, after hours of screening.
Mr Oyedele, the former chairman of the Presidential Committee on Fiscal Policy and Tax Reforms, described his nomination as a call to serve Nigeria.
“With over two decades of experience working with national governments, multilateral institutions, and global corporations, my journey across the private sector, academia, and public policy has focused on fiscal governance and economic transformation.
“However, this moment is not about personal accomplishments; it is a call to serve at a critical time when Nigeria faces significant fiscal challenges and remarkable opportunities,” the 50-year-old said in the upper chamber.
He said his decades-long experience working on “global reforms regarding the ease of doing business and taxation across 180 countries” had prepared him for the role.
“I feel my background has prepared me to help my country by understanding what works globally and how to apply those lessons to our unique context,” Mr Oyedele added.
The public policy expert, accountant, and economist was appointed by the President to chair the tax reform committee in July 2023.
This led to the creation of four bills: the Nigeria Tax Bill, the Nigeria Tax Administration Bill, the Nigeria Revenue Service (Establishment) Bill, and the Joint Revenue Board (Establishment) Bill were passed by the National Assembly last year after months of extensive debates and controversies, and assented to by Tinubu on June 26, 2025.
The former fiscal policy partner and Africa tax leader at PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC) attended Yaba College of Technology and bagged a Higher National Diploma (HND) in Accountancy and Finance.
Mr Oyedele also earned a BSc in applied accounting from Oxford Brookes University.
His academic journey saw him study at the London School of Economics, Yale University, the Gordon Institute of Business Science, and the Harvard Kennedy School, where he completed executive education programmes.
The ministerial nominee worked for decades with PWC, having started his career at the organisation in 2001.
He is a professor at Babcock University in Ogun State as well as a visiting scholar at the Lagos Business School.
Economy
Fears Over Impact on African Nations if Iran War Drags on
CNN’s Larry Madowo reports that oil price spikes triggered by the war with Iran could have a catastrophic impact on African nations. Even Africa’s most advanced economy, South Africa, is exposed to the oil price shocks, which could cause higher fuel costs, rising inflation and renewed pressure on currencies.
The government in Kenya is reassuring citizens that there are no immediate fears of a fuel shortage, and prices have not spiked. Many Governments across Africa are reassuring their citizens that they have stocks to last them for the time being. But they can’t make long-term guarantees because many African nations depend on imported refined petroleum from the Gulf.
This conflict just crossed the 12-day mark, and economist Kwame Owino tells Madowo that African nations should start preparing for a catastrophic scenario, “while no African countries are directly involved in the conflict, we still suffer quite substantially. Governments need to adjust. So, for instance, the government of Kenya has some of the highest taxes globally on fuel prices, so adjusting fiscal policy to allow for greater affordability is important, even if it means that the government will have a lower take.”
Africa’s most advanced economy, South Africa, is one of those exposed to the oil price shocks. One South African airline, Flysafair, announced it would be adding a temporary dynamic fuel surcharge after jet fuel prices rose by 70% in one week at South African airports. Other airlines, including national carrier South African Airways, said they were monitoring prices.
Nigeria is Africa’s most populous nation and one of the largest economies. It is also a crude oil producer, so it’s likely to cash in on the increase in global oil prices. But Nigeria still imports refined petroleum, so it is not immune to the shocks that the global markets are seeing.
The bigger picture here is that African economies are more fragile than stronger, more advanced economies. Owino says, “These economies are small and fragile. They are dependent on those imports. So, when there’s a global conflict, it affects these economies. And African economies also tend to recover slowly, much slower to have a slower path of recovery.”
Fuel prices are holding steady right now. But if the conflict with Iran drags on, just about everything here in Kenya and across the African continent will get more expensive, adding more pain for African consumers.
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