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Nigeria May Not Improve Ability to Generate Revenue—Moody’s

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Renowned rating agency, Moody’s, has expressed fears that Nigeria may find it difficult to improve its ability to generate revenue.

In 2016, when the prices of crude oil in the global market fell, Nigeria, which relied on oil for revenue, went into recession.

However, as prices of the commodity picked up last year, the Africa’s largest market exited recession, though the economy still remains very fragile.

In a report released on Monday, Moody’s Investors Service emphasised that although Nigeria (B2 stable) and Angola’s (B3 stable) economies, external positions and public finances are expected to stabilise, their continued dependence on oil and gas means they will both face a range of challenges in the coming years.

Moody’s pointed out that for Angola, the key issue will be managing its liquidity pressures and higher debt burden alongside further currency devaluation, while for Nigeria, it will be improving its ability to generate revenue.

“Both Nigeria and Angola have seen their credit profiles come under pressure following the oil price shock in 2014,” said Aurélien Mali, a Moody’s Vice President – Senior Credit Officer and co-author of the report. “The rise in hydrocarbon production will support growth in both countries and will help to stabilise their deficits. But revenue generation remains a key weakness for Nigeria, while Angola will find it hard to cut its already sizeable debt load as its kwanza currency continues to depreciate.”

The report, titled ‘Governments of Nigeria and Angola: Angola’s intensifying liquidity risks and rising debt burden underpin weaker credit profile compared to Nigeria,’ disclosed that Nigeria and Angola are two of Sub-Saharan Africa’s largest economies, accounting for close to 40 percent of the nominal GDP of the sovereigns that Moody’s rates in the region.

While increased oil production will support a pick-up in growth in both countries in 2018, they face challenges in attracting more investment in a low oil price environment.

Nigeria has struggled to reform its oil sector, improve the regulatory environment and increase transparency. However, the Angolan authorities have created a predictable and transparent environment for the oil sector compared to Nigeria and other regional peers.

Angola’s main production challenge is its higher costs, meaning higher oil prices are crucial to unlocking future investment.

In 2018, Moody’s expects the higher oil price and fiscal consolidation efforts to contain budget deficits at around 2.6 percent of GDP for Nigeria and around 2 percent for Angola.

Increasing non-oil tax intake remains one of the biggest challenges both countries face in the coming years. The Nigerian authorities’ efforts to increase non-oil revenue since late 2015 have been largely unsuccessful.

Angola’s new administration is also increasing attempts to improve non-oil revenues, for instance, with a new property tax and a planned VAT tax from 2019 onwards.

Nevertheless, Moody’s expects revenues to remain at similar or only slightly higher levels in 2018-19, averaging 7.7 percent of GDP for Nigeria and 19.9 percent for Angola.

Moody’s expects the ongoing currency adjustment will increase Angola’s debt burden to almost 73 percent of GDP by the end 2018, much higher than the B2 median of 41 percent of GDP (2018F). The debt trend is then expected to gradually improve, supported by a combination of average nominal GDP growth between 2018 and 2021 of around 19 percent and the relatively small fiscal deficits.

By contrast, the increase in Nigeria’s debt burden was much slower in recent years and Moody’s expects it to stabilize at around 20 percent of GDP (2018F).

Angola’s largest credit challenges are its sizeable borrowing requirements and liquidity risks. The country’s general government gross borrowing requirements will be 20 percent of GDP in 2018, a significantly higher level than previously thought.

Nigeria’s gross borrowing requirements are lower, estimated at 6.2 percent of GDP in 2018, of which 4 percent of GDP will be funded in the domestic market.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

IMF Charges Nigeria, Others to Deepen Fiscal Buffers Amid Headwinds

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has called on Nigeria and other African countries to deepen fiscal buffers, adopt context-specific monetary policies, and advance regional economic cooperation in order to cushion the effect of global headwinds and unlock long-term inclusive growth.

The Managing Director of the Bretton Wood institution, Ms Kristalina Georgieva, said this during the launch of IMF’s latest Global Policy Agenda Report titled Anchoring Stability and Promoting Balanced Growth at the ongoing World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings in Washington.

She highlighted the continent’s mixed growth outlook and called for a renewed commitment to structural reforms.

Speaking further on fiscal reforms, she said, “Don’t hide behind excuses, and say we can’t go for more tax because, you can. There is a lot that can be done to broaden the tax base, and a lot that can be done to reduce tax evasion and tax avoidance, using technology, as some countries are doing, to chase the tax dollars, when there is the foundation for that, is a very good thing to do.”

Ms Georgieva pointed out that while Africa remained home to some of the world’s fastest-growing economies, a significant number of low-income and fragile states were increasingly falling behind, especially in the wake of slowing global growth and rising geopolitical risks.

“We have seen over the last years, the African continent having some of the fastest growing economies, but we also have seen low-income countries primarily and among the fragile conflict-affected countries falling further behind, and now this, this is a shock for the continent,” she added.

The IMF chief stated that while the direct effect of trade tariffs on most African countries was minimal, the indirect consequences, particularly, from a slowdown in global growth posed more serious challenges, especially for oil-exporting countries, like Nigeria.

“The direct impact of tariffs on most of Africa, not on all of Africa, but on most of Africa, is relatively small, but the indirect impact is quite significant.

“Slowing global growth means that, all other things being equal, they would see a downgrade. And actually, we have downgraded the growth prospects for the continent, for the oil producers, like Nigeria, falling oil prices create additional pressure on their budgets. On the other hand, for the oil importers, this is a breath of fresh air.

“In other words, different countries face different challenges. If I were to come up with some basic recommendations that apply to Africa, I would say they apply to Nigeria, Egypt, Ghana, and they apply to Cote d’Ivoire.

“First, continue on the path of strengthening your buffer levels. There is still a lot that can be done on the fiscal side, to have strength and to have the buffers for a moment of shock, and don’t use any excuses around,” Ms Georgieva noted.

The IMF managing director urged Nigeria and other governments in Africa to do more to expand their tax base and tackle leakages through digital tools. She warned against copycat monetary policies, urging central banks to respond based on country-specific inflation pressures rather than mimic regional peers.

“On the monetary policy side, we are no more in a place where you can look at the book of the central bank governor of the neighbouring country and say, ‘Oh, they’re doing this, let’s try out the same,’ because you have to really assess domestically, what your inflationary pressures are and do the right thing for your country,” she said.

Ms Georgieva also made a passionate call for Africa to rebrand its global image, stating that corruption and conflict in one country cast a long shadow over the entire region.

“But above all, make it so that the image of the whole continent changes, because now everybody suffers from wrongdoing, from corruption or conflict in one country, it throws a shadow on the rest of the continent. And finally, like Asia, there is a need to deepen inter-regional trade and cooperation, remove the obstacles.”

She also underscored the importance of boosting intra-African trade, comparing the continent’s potential to that of Asia and welcomed World Bank efforts to ease infrastructure barriers to trade.

She added: “Sometimes they are infrastructure obstacles. The World Bank is working on reducing the infrastructure obstacles to broaden trade. Africa has so much to offer the world. They have the minerals, better resources, and a young population. I think that a more unified, more collaborative continent can go a long, long way to be an economic powerhouse.”

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Economy

VFD Group Bounces Back to Profitability With N11.2bn PBT in 2024

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By Adedapo Adesanya

Proprietary Investment firm, VFD Group Plc, recorded a 1,202 per cent rise in its Profit Before Tax (PBT) in the 2024 financial year, closing December 31, 2024, at N11.2 billion.

This marked a turnaround after VFD Group reported a pre-tax loss of N1 billion in 2023 due to macroeconomic headwinds which affected a lot of businesses locally and globally.

Net investment income surged by 95 per cent to N59.0 billion despite a spike in investment expenses to N15.5 billion from N7.4 billion in 2023.

Other metrics showed that net revenue increased by 90 per cent to N71.0 billion, while operating profit grew by an impressive 104 per cent to N48.8 billion.

The firm, listed on the main board of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited, noted that the development showcased exceptional growth.

“The journey to this milestone was paved with strategic initiatives and a relentless pursuit of innovation,” it added in a statement on Friday.

The company holds investments in over 20 portfolio businesses spanning key sectors such as financial services, banking, market infrastructure, capital markets, technology, real estate, and hospitality.

As of April 22, 2025, VFD Group’s market capitalisation surged by 116 per cent to hit N121.6 billion from N56.2 billion year to date.

“These outstanding results reflect the success of our team’s efforts. As VFD Group looks to the future, it remains committed to delivering exceptional value to its customers and stakeholders,” the statement added.

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Economy

Nigeria Targets $90bn from Textile, Livestock by 2035

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

About $90 billion is expected to be generated in economic value by 2035 from new strategies developed by the Nigerian government for agribusiness expansion and livestock transformation.

To achieve this, the National Economic Council (NEC) chaired by the Vice President, Mr Kashim Shettima, has approved the establishment of a Cotton, Textile and Garment Development Board.

At the NEC meeting on Thursday in Abuja, steps to reposition Nigeria’s economy and tackle insecurity at its roots were discussed by the participants, which included the governors of the 36 states of the federation.

The new regulatory body for the cotton, textile and garment sector of Nigeria will have governors representing the six geo-political zones, with Ministers of Agriculture and Food Security, Budget and Economic Planning, and Industry, Trade and Investment as members.

It would be domiciled in the presidency, with representation of the relevant public sector stakeholders, and funded from the Textile Import Levy being collected by the Nigeria Customs Service (NCS), though it would be private sector-driven.

“Nigeria is a nation where cotton can thrive in 34 states. Yet our production level remains a fraction of our potential.

“We currently produce only 13,000 metric tons, while we continue to import textiles worth hundreds of millions of dollars. This is not just an economic imbalance. It is an invitation to act,” he added.

“Our goal is not just regulation. It is a revival. This is our opportunity to re-industrialise, to empower communities, and to restore pride in local production,” the VP stated.

Also at the meeting yesterday, the council approved the establishment of the Green Imperative Project (GIP), with a national office in Abuja and regional offices across the six geopolitical zones.

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