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Economy

Nigeria: Moody’s Predicts 2.5% GDP Growth in 2017, 4% in 2018

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**Affirms Country’s B1 Rating With Stable Outlook

By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Moody’s Investors Service on Friday affirmed the B1 long-term issuer rating of the government of Nigeria with a stable outlook just as it forecasts that real GDP growth will rise to 2.5 percent in 2017 and accelerate further in 2018 to 4 percent.

The global rating firm disclosed that the key drivers for these were the medium term growth prospects remain robust despite the current challenging environment, with the rebound in oil production helping to rebalance the economy over the next two years; and the government’s balance sheet, which it said remains strong relative to its peers, resilient to the contractionary environment and temporarily elevated interest payments while the authorities pursue their efforts to grow non-oil taxes.

The long-term local-currency bond and deposit ceilings remain unchanged at Ba1. The long-term foreign-currency bond and deposit ceilings remain unchanged at Ba3 and B2, respectively.

Moody’s said it expects Nigeria’s medium term growth to remain robust, driven by the recovery in oil output and also over the near term, it expects Nigeria’s economic growth and US dollar earnings to improve in 2017, supported by a recovery in oil production.

According to Moody’s, after an estimated -1.5 percent real GDP growth in 2016, it forecasts real GDP growth to rise to 2.5% in 2017 and accelerate further in 2018 to 4%. A rebound in oil production to two million barrels per day (mbpd) will, if sustained, enhance economic growth and support the US dollar supply in the economy.

It noted that Nigeria has made significant gains in terms of governance and transparency in the oil sector. Improved availability of data, progress in restructuring the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), rising effectiveness of operations at the refineries and a readiness to tackle difficult issues with partners (such as funding issues at the Joint Ventures) speak to a material improvement in the operating environment. The Petroleum Investment Bill (PIB bill), which had been blocked for 8 years in parliament, has been reactivated with a portion of the law drafted and passed by the Senate. Moreover, militant activity in the Niger Delta is set to wane following the resumption of payments from the government, though it will remain a threat to the recovery of the economy.

Moody’s further said the economy is also likely to benefit from the more timely implementation of the 2017 budget than its predecessor and in particular from the increase in capital spending on infrastructure which that will allow.

It also said the scarcity of Dollars, worsened by the soft capital controls imposed by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), is likely to continue to negatively affect important sectors of the economy especially in services and manufacturing sectors.

“We do not expect the current policy mix to significantly change over the short term but a gradual easing of restrictions is possible as foreign currency receipts improve with rising oil production,” the firm said on Friday in a statement obtained by Business Post.

In 2017 and 2018, we expect Nigeria’s balance of payments to move back into surplus, supported by government external borrowings and a falling current account deficit. The latter is quickly reducing, supported by falling imports and increased oil production.

Depreciation of the naira, soft capital controls and current dollar scarcity have been relatively effective at constraining imports. We expect foreign exchange reserves to grow modestly in 2017. While improved foreign investor sentiment should support the rebalancing of the economy over the medium term, with the return of portfolio investors improving dollar liquidity in the country, the continued existence of a parallel, unofficial foreign exchange market is likely to act as a strong deterrent over the near term.

RESILIENT GOVERNMENT BALANCE SHEET STRONGER THAN PEERS’ DESPITE TURBULENCE

Moody’s says it expects the medium-term impact of the oil price shock on Nigeria’s government balance sheet to be contained, and recent erosion of debt affordability to be reversed.

The effect of the recent downturn on the government’s budget sheet has been contained as the authorities have been able to offset the shortfall in revenue with large cuts in capital expenditure. As a result, Moody’s forecasts a budget deficit of 3 percent of GDP in 2016, comprised of a 2 percent of GDP federal government budget deficit and around 1% of arrears split between federal, state and municipality levels of government, it explained.

Moody’s forecasts the federal government deficit to remain around 2% of GDP in 2017 and 2018, with large capital expenditure outlays resuming as the government’s cash flow situation improves. Based on these underlying projections, Nigeria’s balance sheet will continue to compare favourably with peers’, with government debt remaining well below 20% of GDP over the coming years against 55% median for B1-rated peers.

By end-2016, Moody’s estimates the government debt stock will be comprised of 85% domestic borrowing and 15% external debt, resulting in a manageable external debt profile. Government external debt amounts to just 2.9% of GDP, with interest payments set to remain low, at around $330 million dollars per annum. Domestic debt has increased significantly in recent years, reaching its current level of NGN10 trillion. Around 30% of this debt is comprised of costly T-bills, which have increased refinancing risk and interest rate exposure. However, Moody’s expects the ratio of interest payments to government revenues to peak at 20% for general government, and close to 40% of revenues for federal government in 2017.

Although debt service costs are high, Nigeria’s domestic capital market is sufficiently developed to accommodate the yearly public sector borrowing requirements of around NGN5.5 trillion. This is another positive credit feature that distinguishes Nigeria from many similarly rated peers. The country’s banking sector is well-capitalised and liquid and the national pension fund still has additional capacity. Should banking sector liquidity decline, the Central Bank of Nigeria has tools at its disposal to support appetite for government securities, including lowering the cash reserve requirement ratio from its presently high level of 22.5%. However, appetite for government securities remains strong, with all instruments remain oversubscribed.

Moody’s expects the recent increase in debt service costs to prove temporary, as a result of i) the government’ initiatives to expand the non-oil revenue base, and ii) efforts to improve the structure of government debt.

Measures by the Federal Revenue Inland Service are expected to increase non-oil revenue to around NGN4 trillion in 2016 from NGN2.5 trillion in 2015. These include a tax amnesty on penalties and interest on tax liabilities due in 2013, 2014 and 2015. However, not all the initiatives have proven successful: the independent re-appropriation of revenues from the ministries departments and agencies (MDAs) has yielded disappointing results so far. Such outcomes highlight the considerable execution risks inherent in the transition to a less oil-dependent federal budget, and the implications for the government balance sheet should it not meet its objectives.

The government’s medium-term debt strategy should also help to lower the interest burden. The debt strategy is geared towards exchanging costly short-term debt with long-term concessional borrowing. Although a portion of future external borrowings are expected to be raised through the Eurobond markets, this is likely to be complemented with ongoing support from other multilateral institutions including the African Development Bank and the World Bank. The combined effect of these measures should help to bring interest payments/general government revenues down to 16.8% by 2018, from an estimated 19.8% in 2016.

RATIONALE FOR THE OUTLOOK AT STABLE

The stable outlook is driven by Moody’s view that the downside risks posed by the weakening of the country’s fiscal strength, and the external and economic pressures anticipated this year and next, are balanced by Nigeria’s strengths, which exceed those of sovereigns rated below B1. In 2016, Nigeria’s external vulnerability indicator of 31% will remain far below the expected B1 median of 51%, while its debt-to-GDP of 16.6% will remain far below the expected B1 median of 55%. Set against that, its expected debt servicing burden in terms of interest payments to revenue of 19% is more than double the B1 median of 9%. To a large extent, Moody’s believes that this reflects Nigeria’s underdeveloped public sector revenue base, a credit weakness that the administration is attempting to address.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP

Positive pressure on Nigeria’s issuer rating will be exerted upon: 1) successful implementation of structural reforms by the Buhari administration, in particular with respect to public resource management and the broadening of the revenue base; 2) strong improvement in institutional strength with respect to corruption, government effectiveness, and the rule of law; 3) the rebuilding of large financial buffers sufficient to shelter the economy against a prolonged period of oil price and production volatility.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING DOWN

Nigeria’s B1 issuer rating could be downgraded in the event of 1) a greater-than-anticipated deterioration in the government’s balance sheet or continued erosion of debt affordability, for example resulting from the failure to implement revenue reform; and 2) lower than expected medium term growth, for example as a result of delays in implementing key structural reforms, especially in the oil sector, or continued militancy in the Niger Delta, which undermine the level of oil production over the medium-term.

GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 6,184 (2015 Actual) (also known as Per Capita Income)

Real GDP growth (% change): -1.5% (2016 Estimate) (also known as GDP Growth)

Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): 19% (2016 Estimate)

Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: -2.9% (2016 Estimate) (also known as Fiscal Balance)

Current Account Balance/GDP: -0.6% (2016 Estimate) (also known as External Balance)

External debt/GDP: 4.2% (2016 Estimate)

Level of economic development: Low level of economic resilience

Default history: No default events (on bonds or loans) have been recorded since 1983.

On 7 December 2016, a rating committee was called to discuss the ratings of the Government of Nigeria. The main points raised during the discussion were: The issuer’s economic fundamentals, including its economic strength, have not materially changed. The issuer’s fiscal or financial strength, including its debt profile, has not materially changed. The issuer’s susceptibility to event risks has not materially changed. Other views raised included: the issuer’s institutional strength/framework, have not materially changed. The issuer’s governance and/or management, have not materially changed.

The principal methodology used in these ratings was Sovereign Bond Ratings published in December 2015. Please see the Rating Methodologies page on www.moodys.com for a copy of this methodology.

The weighting of all rating factors is described in the methodology used in this credit rating action, if applicable.

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

Kwairanga Sees Dangote Refinery, NNPC Listing on NGX Soon

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NNPC vs Dangote refinery

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Chairman of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Group Plc, Mr Umaru Kwairanga, has expressed optimism about the listing of the $20 billion Dangote Refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited on the bourse before the end of 2025.

He gave this assurance during the 64th Annual General Meeting (AGM) of the exchange in Lagos a few days ago.

Mr Kwairanga, projected a confident vision of strategic repositioning and market expansion of the exchange with plans to list heavyweights like Dangote Refinery and NNPC before the end of this year.

He revealed the NGX Group’s active pursuit of large-ticket listings to transform the bourse’s stature, citing strategic engagements with both the Dangote Group and the state oil company.

Business Post reports that Mr Kwairanga has always been an advocate of listing these two companies on the bourse and has always spoken highly and confidently in close and public circles.

Recently, the NNPC announced that it had begun plans for its Initial Public Offering (IPO) after years of delay.

“Even if it’s 20 per cent or 30 per cent, let a part of NNPC be listed. This is the platform of transparency and innovation. It is time to democratise wealth and allow the Nigerian public to benefit from our national assets,” the NGX chairman said.

He underscored the Group’s commitment to deepening market offering and credibility, boosting investor confidence, and aligning with President Bola Tinubu’s $1 trillion economy target.

“We will not shy away from taking the right decisions,” Mr Kwairanga stated resolutely, adding that, “Where organisations no longer deliver value, we will act decisively—even if that means delisting. We must protect our integrity as Africa’s premier stock exchange.”

Mr Kwairanga emphasized the Exchange’s alignment with the current administration’s economic reforms.

“No other institution has keyed into Tinubu’s economic agenda like NGX has. Our ambition is to double the gains from the ongoing banking recapitalisation and deliver on major listings that will redefine the capital market.”

“We have the capacity. We have the people. We have your support. By year-end, you will witness a transformation led by landmark listings and strategic reforms. NGX is not just keeping pace—we are setting the pace,” he added.

NGX Group had announced a record 157.3 per cent year-on-year growth in profit before tax (PBT), reaching N13.6 billion for the financial year ended December 31, 2024.

According to its audited financial statement, gross earnings soared by 103.2per cent to N24.0 billion, powered by a diversified surge in revenue channels: transaction fees climbed 64 per cent, listing fees skyrocketed by 397.1 per cent, and market data revenue doubled by 100.5 per cent.

Other standout contributors include a 105 per cent rise in technology-related income and a 174.8 per cent increase in other fees, affirming NGX Group’s strategic pivot toward innovation, digitalisation, and sustainable value creation.

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Economy

Poverty, Food Insecurity Remain High in Nigeria Despite Reforms—IMF

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Africa out of poverty

By Dipo Olowookere

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said despite the economic reforms of the administration of President Bola Tinubu, poverty and food insecurity remain high in Nigeria.

The global lender said this after the conclusion of its 2025 Article IV Consultations with Nigeria from April 2 to 15 in Lagos and Abuja.

Officials of the IMF led by the mission chief for Nigeria, Mr Axel Schimmelpfennig, held talks with senior government officials, including the Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun; the Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Mr Abubakar Kyari; and the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Yemi Cardoso.

Others were senior government and central bank officials, the Ministry of the Environment, the private sector, academia, labour unions, and civil society.

In a statement made available to Business Post by the IMF, the federal government was praised for its reforms as well as the central bank for stopping the funding of budget deficits through ways and means.

“The Nigerian authorities have taken important steps to stabilize the economy, enhance resilience, and support growth.

“The financing of the fiscal deficit by the central bank has ceased, costly fuel subsidies were removed, and the functioning of the foreign exchange market has improved. Gains have yet to benefit all Nigerians as poverty and food insecurity remain high.

”The outlook is marked by significant uncertainty. Elevated global risk sentiment and lower oil prices impact the Nigerian economy.

“The reforms since 2023 have put the Nigerian economy in a better position to navigate this external environment.

“Looking ahead, macroeconomic policies need to further strengthen buffers and resilience, while creating enabling conditions for private sector-led growth,” the statement said.

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Economy

SEC to go Tough on Illegal Investment Schemes After CBEX Crashing

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unregistered investment schemes

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is moving to apply a more forceful and coordinated enforcement regime against unregistered and illegal “phony” investment schemes, otherwise known as Ponzi schemes.

This is coming after Crypto Bridge Exchange (CBEX) reportedly crashed, leading to many investors unable to withdraw their funds.

The issue has drawn wide conversations around the unchecked activities of Ponzi scheme operators until it is too late to cry when the head is cut off.

The Director-General of the SEC, Mr Emomotimi Agama, said this in a statement that the commission never granted registration to CBEX operate as a digital assets exchange in Nigeria.

He urged members of the public to cease all dealings with the platform.

CBEX, operating under various names, including ST Technologies International Ltd. and Smart Treasure/Super Technology, asked the public to invest in its schemes for higher returns.

“The commission hereby clarifies that neither CBEX nor its affiliates were granted registration by the commission at any time to operate as a Digital Assets Exchange, solicit investments from the public, or perform any other function within the Nigerian capital market,” he reiterated.

He said that preliminary investigations carried out by the agency had revealed that CBEX engaged in promotional activities to create a false perception of legitimacy, noting that this was to entice unsuspecting members of the public into investing monies, with the promise of implausibly high guaranteed returns within a short timeframe.

The SEC chief emphasised that pursuant to the provisions of Section 196 of the Investments and Securities Act 2025, the commission would collaborate with relevant law enforcement agencies to take appropriate enforcement action against CBEX, its affiliates, and promoters.

“The commission uses this medium to remind the public to refrain from investing in or dealing with any entity offering unrealistic returns or employing similar recruitment-based investment models.

“Prospective investors are advised to verify the registration status of investment platforms through the commission’s dedicated portal: www.sec.gov.ng/cmos before transacting with them,” he said.

Mr Agama said that with the newly enacted Investments and Securities Act, 2025 (ISA 2025), the commission now had enhanced powers to prosecute Ponzi schemes and their promoters.

He explained that investigations were ongoing on CBEX, adding that promoters of the failed scheme would not go scot-free.

The SEC DG also said the new law had given the commission more powers and blocked loopholes in emerging areas of virtual and digital assets.

“The ISA 2025 has given the commission the legal backing to provide clarity, ensure investor protection, and enhance market confidence, especially in new and previously unregulated segments such as digital asset exchanges and online foreign exchange platforms,” he said.

He added that while the apex capital market regulator would continue to support innovations in finance and investments, the commission would maintain strict oversight in line with its enhanced investor’s protection mandate.

“We welcome innovation, but it must occur within a regulated environment that protects investors and maintains the integrity of our market.”

He recalled that even with the limited scope of the repealed Act, the SEC had maintained extensive surveillance and was able to shut down a number of Ponzi schemes, with some of the promoters, like Fahmzi Interbiz, jailed for defrauding Nigerians.

According to him, with the ISA 2025 giving the commission more powers to deal with issues, the commission will ensure that promoters of such schemes are not allowed to operate.

This comes after the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) also announced that it is investigating the development.

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