Adedapo Adesanya
By Adedapo Adesanya
Africa will account for 11 of the world’s 20 fastest-growing economies in 2024, but Nigeria will not be one of them, the latest outlook from the African Development Bank (AfDB) shows.
In its latest Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook (MEO) of the continent, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the continent is expected to average 3.8 per cent and 4.2 per cent in 2024 and 2025, respectively. This is higher than projected global averages of 2.9 per cent and 3.2 per cent, the report said.
The top 11 African countries projected to experience strong economic performance forecast are Niger (11.2 per cent), Senegal (8.2 per cent), Libya (7.9 per cent), Rwanda (7.2 per cent), Cote d’Ivoire (6.8 per cent), Ethiopia (6.7 per cent), Benin (6.4 per cent), Djibouti (6.2 per cent), Tanzania (6.1 per cent), Togo (6 per cent), and Uganda at 6 per cent.
However, Nigeria will only scrape a 3.3 per cent growth, based on current realities.
Speaking on the development, the AfDB President, Mr Akinwumi Adesina, called for larger pools of financing and several policy interventions to further boost Africa’s growth.
“Despite the challenging global and regional economic environment, 15 African countries have posted output expansions of more than 5 per cent,” he said.
The latest report called for cautious optimism given the challenges posed by global and regional risks. These risks include rising geopolitical tensions, increased regional conflicts, and political instability—all of which could disrupt trade and investment flows, and perpetuate inflationary pressures.
Mr Adesina emphasised that fiscal deficits have improved, as faster-than-expected recovery from the pandemic helped shore up revenue.
“This has led to a stabilisation of the average fiscal deficit at 4.9 per cent in 2023, like 2022, but significantly less than the 6.9 per cent average fiscal deficit of 2020. The stabilisation is also due to the fiscal consolidation measures, especially in countries with elevated risks of debt distress,” he said.
He cautioned that with the global economy mired in uncertainty, the fiscal positions of the African continent will continue to be vulnerable to global shocks.
The report shows that the medium-term growth outlook for the continent’s five regions is slowly improving, a pointer to the continued resilience of Africa’s economies.
Up to 41 countries across the continent will in 2024, achieve an economic growth rate of 3.8 per cent, and in 13 of them, growth will be more than 1 percentage point higher than in 2023.
East Africa will continue to lead Africa’s growth momentum, with growth projected to rise to 5.1 per cent in 2024 and 5.7 per cent in 2025, supported by strong strategic investments to improve internal connectivity and deepen intra-regional trade.
However, West Africa under which Nigeria falls, will pick up to 4 per cent and 4.4 per cent in 2024 and 2025 respectively. Strong growth in most countries in the region is projected to offset slowdowns in Nigeria and Ghana.
