Economy
Nigeria to Quit Recession 2017, Devalue Naira Again—FBNQuest Research
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
A research carried out by FBNQuest Research has predicted that Nigeria’s economy will leave recession this year and grow by 2 percent.
However, it pointed out that there would be another devaluation of the Naira in 2017.
In June 2016, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) floated the Naira in a bid to give the local currency strength at the foreign exchange market. But this seems not to have worked because the Naira has lost over N150 against the Dollar since then.
At the moment, the Naira is N516 to $1 at the parallel market compared with about N342 it was sold in June 2016.
In the report titled ‘2017 Outlook So much to do; so little time,’ it was noted that the fiscal stimulus for this will be the main driver, supported by a recovery in oil production and selective private investment.
“Beyond our forecast horizon, household consumption will recover, leading to an acceleration in growth,” part of the report said.
According to FBNQuest Research, “The 2017 budget proposals are still more expansionary than the previous year’s, set a heady target for capital releases and maintain the level of personnel costs. If the FGN is able to hit its revenue targets and implement its proposals, we will see a sizeable fiscal stimulus. We could have the rare bonus of a relatively fast passage of the budget.”
It described the 2017 budget proposals as “ambitious”, noting that it contains aggregate spending of N7.30 trillion including unprecedented capital releases of N2.24 trillion, aggregate revenues of N4.94 trillion and a mouth-watering FGN deficit of N2.36 trillion.
The report identified these as “hefty increases on the 2016 budget and even larger increases on the likely outturn for 2016. “
It said one change for the better is that the FGN has produced more realistic projections for non-oil revenue collection, and assumed that the oil economy will generate more revenue than the non-oil.
“The fiscal expansion is the base of our GDP growth forecast of 2 percent for this year. We hear that we are being overly hopeful: we would reply that the population is said to be growing at 3.2 percent per year and that we are forecasting a decline in per head incomes.
“Our forecast is supported by selective private-sector investment (as in agriculture and petrochemicals) and by a pick-up in oil production.
“Our thinking is that the FGN has no choice but to reach a compromise to restore stability to the Niger Delta.
“It has said repeatedly that the diversification of the economy hinges ironically upon healthy oil revenues.
“Initially, it did not want to continue paying the allowances to militants in the delta but has reluctantly changed its position,” the report noted.
FBNQuest Research says it sees a rise in crude production including condensates to 2.10 mbpd this year from an estimated 1.82 mbpd. The FGN is assuming 2.20 mbpd in its proposals.
It said further that, “On the average oil price assumption of $44.50/b for this year, in contrast, the proposals are conservative.
“Our expectation is $57/b with some upside. The FGN therefore should have some welcome headroom, which it will value if production underperforms. Our thinking is based on hints from OPEC that, when it next meets in May, it may make further cuts in production quotas if it is not happy with the direction of the price.”
Also, the report observed that the “signals from the CBN, the MPC and the political leadership indicate otherwise but we think that there will be devaluation in Nigeria in 2017.”
It explained that, “While we cannot detect any changes in the official mindset on the exchange rate, we see another devaluation this year in the ‘last resort’ category. The CBN will struggle to resist the urge to manage the rate in some way.”
It pointed out that the economy has need of sizeable autonomous forex inflows to meet legitimate import demand, close the gap between the interbank and other forex markets, and create a market in which the CBN is not the dominant player.
The report argued that the monetary authorities are not equipped to counter both GDP contraction and rising inflation. Their task will be clearer when positive growth returns and inflation starts to slow on positive base effects.
It said, “The next rate moves by the MPC should be downwards, in line with (or perhaps anticipating) steady declines in headline inflation.”
Commenting on the stock market, the report said it expects the market to trade sideways for the most part until some clarity on the forex situation emerges.
“If a resolution leads to a free float regime (or very close to it), we expect a surge in capital inflows. Our base case scenario is a 10 percent rise in the ASI for 2017 based on our fair value forecasts. A resolution of the forex situation could lead to a gain of at least 20 percent.
“We see upside potential of up to 10 percent for the banks sector on average; a marked resumption of capital inflows from offshore portfolio investors could lead to a much stronger performance.
“We forecast the average ROAE for our universe of banks to move up to 18.3 percent in 2016E, thanks to forex-related gains, but subsequently fall sharply to 11.2 percent in 2017E (assuming forex-related gains are not material in 2017E).
“Among the non-financials, we prefer the cement and palm oil names for which we see upside potential of 56 percent and 6 percent respectively on average.
“The other sectors continue to struggle with the headwinds stemming from forex devaluation given their high dependence on imported raw materials and/or FCY loans.”
On the federal government’s bonds, the report said, “FGN bond yields are likely to drift higher before the policy rate cuts due to the fiscal expansion and substantial issuance programme.
“Active investors will prefer the better returns on longer tenor NTBs. After three years of consecutive losses, we expect equities to regain some lost ground this year. We forecast the ASI to return 10 percent, implying an end-year target of 29,560.”
By Dipo Olowookere
The last trading session of the week on the floor of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited ended on a positive note, as it rallied by 0.08 per cent on Friday.
This was buoyed by strong investor sentiment due to renewed buying pressure, which left 35 stocks on the gainers’ chart, as 33 stocks ended on the losers’ log, indicating a positive market breadth index.
According to data, Eterna gained 10.00 per cent to close at N42.35, Union Dicon appreciated by 9.70 per cent to N16.40, John Holt grew by 9.25 per cent to N9.45, Tantalizers rose by 8.41 per cent to N4.64, and Fidson expanded by 7.27 per cent to N88.50.
Conversely, RT Briscoe lost 10.00 per cent to finish at N12.06, SCOA Nigeria retreated by 9.96 per cent to N34.35, ABC Transport receded by 9.96 per cent to N6.25, Mecure crashed by 9.96 per cent to N61.50, and Berger Paints declined by 9.93 per cent to N66.65.
Business Post observed that the industrial goods space appreciated by 1.20 per cent yesterday, while the energy index improved by 0.19 per cent.
However, the insurance counter fell by 0.61 per cent, the consumer goods segment shed 0.56 per cent, and the banking industry depreciated by 0.11 per cent.
The All-Share Index (ASI) was down by 161.00 points on Friday to 196,968.15 points from 196,807.15 points on Thursday, while the market capitalisation went down by N119 billion to N126.437 trillion from N126.318 trillion.
A total of 586.2 million units of shares worth N30.6 billion were transacted in 62,699 deals during the trading day versus the 634.0 million shares valued at N29.1 billion traded in 66,286 deals a day earlier, showing a jump in the trading value by 5.16 per cent, and a decline in the trading volume and number of deals by 7.54 per cent and 5.41 per cent, respectively.
The activity chart was led by First Holdco with 43.9 million units worth N2.3 billion, Access Holdings exchange 43.2 million units valued at N1.1 billion, Zenith Bank transacted 40.0 million units for N3.7 billion, GTCO sold 38.9 million units worth N4.6 billion, and Jaiz Bank traded 31.5 million units valued at N323.4 million.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange went up by 0.22 per cent on Friday, March 6, as a result of the rise in the share prices of five securities on the platform.
During the session, the market capitalisation of the bourse added N5.60 billion to close at N2.519 trillion versus the preceding session’s N2.513 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) appreciated by 9.35 points to 4,256.41 points from 4,256.41 points.
The five price gainers were led by 11 Plc, which gained N29.02 to close at N319.25 per unit versus Thursday’s closing value of N290.23 per unit, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc appreciated by N1.19 to N81.35 per share from N80.16 per share, Nipco Plc increased by N1.00 to N285.00 per unit from N284.00 per unit, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc rose by 72 Kobo to N125.20 per share from N124.48 per share, and UBN Property Plc improved by 19 Kobo to N2.17 per unit from N1.98 per unit.
On the flip side, Okitipupa Plc lost N20.00 to settle at N230.00 per share compared with the previous day’s N250.00 per share, NASD Plc declined by N5.21 to N51.00 per unit from N56.21 per unit, and First Trust Mortgage Bank Plc declined by 21 Kobo to N1.90 per share from N2.11 per share.
The volume of securities traded by market participants went down by 10.6 per cent yesterday to 3.4 million units from 3.8 million units, and the value of securities dropped 85.3 per cent to close at N62.4 million versus N423.3 million, while the number of deals jumped 4.8 per cent to 44 deals from 42 deals.
CSCS Plc remained the most traded stock by value (year-to-date) with 37.2 million units valued at N2.3 billion, followed by Okitipupa Plc with 6.3 million units worth N1.1 billion, and MRS Oil Plc with 3.4 million units sold for N506.8 million.
Resourcery Plc was the most traded stock by volume (year-to-date) with 1.05 billion units traded for N408.7 million, followed by Geo-Fluids Plc with 123.1 million units transacted for N481.6 million, and CSCS Plc with 37.2 million units worth N2.3 billion.
By Adedapo Adesanya
For another week, the Naira closed without recording a gain against the United States Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX), as FX demand pressure continues to mount.
On Friday, the country’s legal tender further depreciated against the greenback by N5.82 or 0.42 per cent to trade at N1,393.26/$1 compared with the preceding day’s N1,387.45/$1.
Also, the local currency tumbled against the Pound Sterling in the official market segment yesterday by N7.61 to close at N1,859.99/£1 versus Thursday’s closing price of N1,852.38/£1, and crashed against the Euro by N1.58 to settle at N1,611.49/€1, in contrast to the N1,609.86/€1 it was traded a day earlier.
In the same vein, the Naira declined against the Dollar at the GTBank forex desk by N12 during the session to quote at N1,410/$1 versus the previous session’s rate of N1,398/$1, and at the parallel market, it lost N10 to sell for N1,415/$1 compared with the preceding day’s N1,405/$1.
The domestic currency continued its decline despite $300 million in FX intervention sales to banks by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), indicating that the rising demand for foreign payments is outpacing supply. However, worries have heightened as the Naira is entering a threshold that has not previously created panic.
In the international market, the US Dollar held broadly steady and saw its steepest weekly gain in more than a year as the escalating conflict in the Middle East drove demand for safe-haven assets. This creates pressure on other currencies.
This also affected the cryptocurrency market. As tensions escalated in the Middle East last week, investors moved quickly to the safety of the US Dollar, which strengthened as markets began pricing in higher energy prices and reignited inflation fears, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Ethereum (ETH) dipped by 4.9 per cent to $1,975.54, Solana (SOL) depreciated by 4.8 per cent to $84.08, Bitcoin (BTC) lost 4.3 per cent to sell for $67,725.27, Cardano (ADA) slumped 4.2 per cent to $0.2527, and Litecoin (LTC) shrank by 3.4 per cent to $53.55.
Further, Dogecoin (DOGE) declined by 3.2 per cent to $0.0906, Binance Coin (BNB) slipped 2.9 per cent to $626.32, and Ripple (XRP) went down by 2.6 per cent to $1.36, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) closed flat at $1.00 each.
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