Economy
Nigeria to Quit Recession 2017, Devalue Naira Again—FBNQuest Research
By Modupe Gbadeyanka
A research carried out by FBNQuest Research has predicted that Nigeria’s economy will leave recession this year and grow by 2 percent.
However, it pointed out that there would be another devaluation of the Naira in 2017.
In June 2016, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) floated the Naira in a bid to give the local currency strength at the foreign exchange market. But this seems not to have worked because the Naira has lost over N150 against the Dollar since then.
At the moment, the Naira is N516 to $1 at the parallel market compared with about N342 it was sold in June 2016.
In the report titled ‘2017 Outlook So much to do; so little time,’ it was noted that the fiscal stimulus for this will be the main driver, supported by a recovery in oil production and selective private investment.
“Beyond our forecast horizon, household consumption will recover, leading to an acceleration in growth,” part of the report said.
According to FBNQuest Research, “The 2017 budget proposals are still more expansionary than the previous year’s, set a heady target for capital releases and maintain the level of personnel costs. If the FGN is able to hit its revenue targets and implement its proposals, we will see a sizeable fiscal stimulus. We could have the rare bonus of a relatively fast passage of the budget.”
It described the 2017 budget proposals as “ambitious”, noting that it contains aggregate spending of N7.30 trillion including unprecedented capital releases of N2.24 trillion, aggregate revenues of N4.94 trillion and a mouth-watering FGN deficit of N2.36 trillion.
The report identified these as “hefty increases on the 2016 budget and even larger increases on the likely outturn for 2016. “
It said one change for the better is that the FGN has produced more realistic projections for non-oil revenue collection, and assumed that the oil economy will generate more revenue than the non-oil.
“The fiscal expansion is the base of our GDP growth forecast of 2 percent for this year. We hear that we are being overly hopeful: we would reply that the population is said to be growing at 3.2 percent per year and that we are forecasting a decline in per head incomes.
“Our forecast is supported by selective private-sector investment (as in agriculture and petrochemicals) and by a pick-up in oil production.
“Our thinking is that the FGN has no choice but to reach a compromise to restore stability to the Niger Delta.
“It has said repeatedly that the diversification of the economy hinges ironically upon healthy oil revenues.
“Initially, it did not want to continue paying the allowances to militants in the delta but has reluctantly changed its position,” the report noted.
FBNQuest Research says it sees a rise in crude production including condensates to 2.10 mbpd this year from an estimated 1.82 mbpd. The FGN is assuming 2.20 mbpd in its proposals.
It said further that, “On the average oil price assumption of $44.50/b for this year, in contrast, the proposals are conservative.
“Our expectation is $57/b with some upside. The FGN therefore should have some welcome headroom, which it will value if production underperforms. Our thinking is based on hints from OPEC that, when it next meets in May, it may make further cuts in production quotas if it is not happy with the direction of the price.”
Also, the report observed that the “signals from the CBN, the MPC and the political leadership indicate otherwise but we think that there will be devaluation in Nigeria in 2017.”
It explained that, “While we cannot detect any changes in the official mindset on the exchange rate, we see another devaluation this year in the ‘last resort’ category. The CBN will struggle to resist the urge to manage the rate in some way.”
It pointed out that the economy has need of sizeable autonomous forex inflows to meet legitimate import demand, close the gap between the interbank and other forex markets, and create a market in which the CBN is not the dominant player.
The report argued that the monetary authorities are not equipped to counter both GDP contraction and rising inflation. Their task will be clearer when positive growth returns and inflation starts to slow on positive base effects.
It said, “The next rate moves by the MPC should be downwards, in line with (or perhaps anticipating) steady declines in headline inflation.”
Commenting on the stock market, the report said it expects the market to trade sideways for the most part until some clarity on the forex situation emerges.
“If a resolution leads to a free float regime (or very close to it), we expect a surge in capital inflows. Our base case scenario is a 10 percent rise in the ASI for 2017 based on our fair value forecasts. A resolution of the forex situation could lead to a gain of at least 20 percent.
“We see upside potential of up to 10 percent for the banks sector on average; a marked resumption of capital inflows from offshore portfolio investors could lead to a much stronger performance.
“We forecast the average ROAE for our universe of banks to move up to 18.3 percent in 2016E, thanks to forex-related gains, but subsequently fall sharply to 11.2 percent in 2017E (assuming forex-related gains are not material in 2017E).
“Among the non-financials, we prefer the cement and palm oil names for which we see upside potential of 56 percent and 6 percent respectively on average.
“The other sectors continue to struggle with the headwinds stemming from forex devaluation given their high dependence on imported raw materials and/or FCY loans.”
On the federal government’s bonds, the report said, “FGN bond yields are likely to drift higher before the policy rate cuts due to the fiscal expansion and substantial issuance programme.
“Active investors will prefer the better returns on longer tenor NTBs. After three years of consecutive losses, we expect equities to regain some lost ground this year. We forecast the ASI to return 10 percent, implying an end-year target of 29,560.”
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
One of the leading local energy firms, Oando Plc, delivered an impressive financial performance in the first six months of 2026, according to details of its results filed to the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited.
Between January and June 2026, revenue surged by 20 per cent to N2.1 trillion from N1.7 trillion in the same period of 2025, driven by growth in the Exploration & Production and Trading segments of the business.
Also, the net profit grew by 8 per cent year-on-year to N68.6 billion from N63.3 billion, supported by improved operating profits and tax credits.
It was observed that the organisation deepened its domestic gas monetisation portfolio with the commencement of long-term gas supply of 11.2 MMscfd to the newly commissioned 60 MW Bayelsa Independent Power Plant.
“The first half of 2026 marks an important inflexion point in Oando’s journey. Over the past two years, our priority has been to successfully integrate one of the most significant upstream acquisitions in Africa and unlock the full value of our expanded portfolio. The progress achieved during the period demonstrates that we are now delivering the operational and financial outcomes expected from that transformation,” the chief executive of Oando, Mr Adewale Tinubu, stated.
Commenting further on the results, Mr Tinubu said, “Operational efficiency underpinned our performance during the period as we strengthened asset integrity, improved facility reliability and reinforced security across our operating areas, resulting in average facility uptime of 92 per cent while reducing production operating costs by 18 per cent to $16.83 per boe.”
“Our development programme also gathered significant momentum during the period as we successfully drilled and completed two land development wells, with an additional land well currently being drilled, while mobilising a second drilling rig to accelerate activity across our operated portfolio.
“In parallel, we continued an extensive programme of rig-less well interventions designed to restore production, sustain plateau output and mitigate natural field decline. Together, these activities increased average production to 42,789 boepd, representing 16 per cent year-on-year growth.
“This translated into a stronger financial performance, with revenue increasing by 20 per cent to N2.1 trillion, while the business generated N179.5 billion in operating cash, improving liquidity. Profit after tax also increased by 8 per cent to N68.6 billion, reflecting the overall improvement in operating performance during the period,” he pointed out.
The Oando chief also said, “Looking ahead in 2026, our priorities remain firmly centred on completing our seven-well drilling programme and portfolio-wide well intervention campaign while delivering production of circa 50,000 boepd.
“Beyond 2026, our identified inventory of 62 development wells, supported by 55 planned well interventions, provides a clear pathway towards our medium-term production ambition of approximately 100,000 boepd.
“Furthermore, we shall execute an intensive fundraising and balance sheet restructuring programme to optimise our capital structure, strengthen our financial position, improve working capital, enhance financial flexibility and ensure the business is appropriately funded to accelerate growth and maximise long-term shareholder value.
“We have built a resilient operating platform and established a clear roadmap for growth. Our focus is now on translating our significant opportunities into higher production, a stronger balance sheet and superior long-term returns for our shareholders.”
By Adedapo Adesanya
Africa-focused fintech company PalmPay has joined the ranks of unicorn startups after attaining a valuation of more than $1 billion, as the digital payment platform prepares for a potential initial public offering (IPO) in Hong Kong.
According to a report by Bloomberg on Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter, the Hong Kong-headquartered company is in advanced discussions to raise about $200 million in a new funding round that would cement its unicorn status and support its next phase of expansion.
The planned fundraising comes as PalmPay accelerates its growth strategy across Africa and Asia, while positioning itself for a public listing that could become one of the most significant fintech IPOs involving an Africa-focused company in recent years.
PalmPay’s move follows a period of rapid growth in Nigeria, where it has become one of the country’s largest digital financial services providers. Alongside OPay and Moniepoint, the company forms the trio that dominates Nigeria’s retail digital payments and agency banking market, a segment driven by millions of point-of-sale (POS) transactions processed daily.
With PalmPay’s latest valuation milestone, all three leading Nigerian fintechs have now achieved unicorn status. While OPay has previously disclosed plans to pursue a listing in the United States, Moniepoint has remained focused on expanding its banking and business services without publicly indicating IPO ambitions.
Founded in 2019 after securing a Mobile Money Operator (MMO) licence from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), PalmPay has built one of the country’s fastest-growing fintech ecosystems. The company says it now serves more than 35 million registered users and over 600,000 merchants, supported by an extensive network of more than 500,000 mobile money agents nationwide.
The platform offers a broad suite of financial services, including peer-to-peer transfers, bill payments, airtime purchases, savings, credit products, merchant payment solutions and agency banking services. PalmPay says it processes as many as 15 million transactions daily, reflecting the increasing adoption of digital payments across Nigeria.
Beyond its home market, the fintech has expanded into Tanzania, Ghana, and Bangladesh, underscoring its ambition to become a leading emerging-market digital bank. Industry analysts view the expansion as part of a broader strategy to diversify revenue streams while replicating its Nigerian success in other underbanked markets.
PalmPay has attracted backing from prominent global investors, including Taiwanese semiconductor manufacturer MediaTek and smartphone maker Transsion Holdings, whose Tecno, Infinix and itel brands command significant market share across Africa. Their support has helped PalmPay leverage smartphone penetration to drive financial inclusion through mobile-first banking services.
As part of efforts to strengthen its leadership ahead of its next growth phase, PalmPay recently appointed Mr Samuel Oluyemi as Chief Operating Officer (COO) for its Nigerian business. Mr Oluyemi joined the company after more than two decades at the Nigeria Inter-Bank Settlement System (NIBSS), where he played key roles in developing the country’s digital payments infrastructure.
If completed, the fundraising and eventual Hong Kong listing would further underscore growing international investor confidence in African fintech companies despite a more cautious global venture capital environment. The proceeds are expected to support PalmPay’s geographical expansion, deepen its product offerings, invest in technology infrastructure and strengthen its competitive position in Africa’s rapidly evolving digital financial services industry.
By Adedapo Adesanya
Market bellwethers, Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, lifted the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange by 2.08 per cent on Monday, August 3.
CSCS Plc, the Nigerian securities depository company, gained N10.00 to close at N112.00 per share compared with the previous session’s N102.00 per share, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc advanced by N4.71 to quote at N152.64 per unit versus last Friday’s N147.93 per unit.
As a result, the NASD Security Index (NSI) added 92.14 points to finish at 4,523.85 points compared with the preceding session’s 4,431.71 points, and the market capitalisation appreciated by N55.31 billion to N2.715 trillion from N2.659 trillion.
Business Post reports that the price of MRS Oil Plc crashed during the trading day by N12.00 to N120.00 per share from N132.00 per share, and UBN Property Plc dipped by 3 Kobo to N1.90 per unit from N1.93 per unit.
Trading data showed that the volume of securities exchanged rose by 113.1 per cent to 1.5 million units from 690,990 units, and the number of deals climbed by 19.2 per cent to 31 deals from 26 deals, while the value of securities slid by 13.1 per cent to N65.2 million from N75.0 million.
Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc remained the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units sold for N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 76.8 million units traded for N5.5 billion.
GNI Plc also closed the session as the most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units exchanged for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million.
