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Economy

Nigeria to Quit Recession 2017, Devalue Naira Again—FBNQuest Research

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

A research carried out by FBNQuest Research has predicted that Nigeria’s economy will leave recession this year and grow by 2 percent.

However, it pointed out that there would be another devaluation of the Naira in 2017.

In June 2016, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) floated the Naira in a bid to give the local currency strength at the foreign exchange market. But this seems not to have worked because the Naira has lost over N150 against the Dollar since then.

At the moment, the Naira is N516 to $1 at the parallel market compared with about N342 it was sold in June 2016.

In the report titled ‘2017 Outlook So much to do; so little time,’ it was noted that the fiscal stimulus for this will be the main driver, supported by a recovery in oil production and selective private investment.

“Beyond our forecast horizon, household consumption will recover, leading to an acceleration in growth,” part of the report said.

According to FBNQuest Research, “The 2017 budget proposals are still more expansionary than the previous year’s, set a heady target for capital releases and maintain the level of personnel costs. If the FGN is able to hit its revenue targets and implement its proposals, we will see a sizeable fiscal stimulus. We could have the rare bonus of a relatively fast passage of the budget.”

It described the 2017 budget proposals as “ambitious”, noting that it contains aggregate spending of N7.30 trillion including unprecedented capital releases of N2.24 trillion, aggregate revenues of N4.94 trillion and a mouth-watering FGN deficit of N2.36 trillion.

The report identified these as “hefty increases on the 2016 budget and even larger increases on the likely outturn for 2016. “

It said one change for the better is that the FGN has produced more realistic projections for non-oil revenue collection, and assumed that the oil economy will generate more revenue than the non-oil.

“The fiscal expansion is the base of our GDP growth forecast of 2 percent for this year. We hear that we are being overly hopeful: we would reply that the population is said to be growing at 3.2 percent per year and that we are forecasting a decline in per head incomes.

“Our forecast is supported by selective private-sector investment (as in agriculture and petrochemicals) and by a pick-up in oil production.

“Our thinking is that the FGN has no choice but to reach a compromise to restore stability to the Niger Delta.

“It has said repeatedly that the diversification of the economy hinges ironically upon healthy oil revenues.

“Initially, it did not want to continue paying the allowances to militants in the delta but has reluctantly changed its position,” the report noted.

FBNQuest Research says it sees a rise in crude production including condensates to 2.10 mbpd this year from an estimated 1.82 mbpd. The FGN is assuming 2.20 mbpd in its proposals.

It said further that, “On the average oil price assumption of $44.50/b for this year, in contrast, the proposals are conservative.

“Our expectation is $57/b with some upside. The FGN therefore should have some welcome headroom, which it will value if production underperforms. Our thinking is based on hints from OPEC that, when it next meets in May, it may make further cuts in production quotas if it is not happy with the direction of the price.”

Also, the report observed that the “signals from the CBN, the MPC and the political leadership indicate otherwise but we think that there will be devaluation in Nigeria in 2017.”

It explained that, “While we cannot detect any changes in the official mindset on the exchange rate, we see another devaluation this year in the ‘last resort’ category. The CBN will struggle to resist the urge to manage the rate in some way.”

It pointed out that the economy has need of sizeable autonomous forex inflows to meet legitimate import demand, close the gap between the interbank and other forex markets, and create a market in which the CBN is not the dominant player.

The report argued that the monetary authorities are not equipped to counter both GDP contraction and rising inflation. Their task will be clearer when positive growth returns and inflation starts to slow on positive base effects.

It said, “The next rate moves by the MPC should be downwards, in line with (or perhaps anticipating) steady declines in headline inflation.”

Commenting on the stock market, the report said it expects the market to trade sideways for the most part until some clarity on the forex situation emerges.

“If a resolution leads to a free float regime (or very close to it), we expect a surge in capital inflows. Our base case scenario is a 10 percent rise in the ASI for 2017 based on our fair value forecasts. A resolution of the forex situation could lead to a gain of at least 20 percent.

“We see upside potential of up to 10 percent for the banks sector on average; a marked resumption of capital inflows from offshore portfolio investors could lead to a much stronger performance.

“We forecast the average ROAE for our universe of banks to move up to 18.3 percent in 2016E, thanks to forex-related gains, but subsequently fall sharply to 11.2 percent in 2017E (assuming forex-related gains are not material in 2017E).

“Among the non-financials, we prefer the cement and palm oil names for which we see upside potential of 56 percent and 6 percent respectively on average.

“The other sectors continue to struggle with the headwinds stemming from forex devaluation given their high dependence on imported raw materials and/or FCY loans.”

On the federal government’s bonds, the report said, “FGN bond yields are likely to drift higher before the policy rate cuts due to the fiscal expansion and substantial issuance programme.

“Active investors will prefer the better returns on longer tenor NTBs. After three years of consecutive losses, we expect equities to regain some lost ground this year. We forecast the ASI to return 10 percent, implying an end-year target of 29,560.”

FBNQuest Research

Modupe Gbadeyanka is a fast-rising journalist with Business Post Nigeria. Her passion for journalism is amazing. She is willing to learn more with a view to becoming one of the best pen-pushers in Nigeria. Her role models are the duo of CNN's Richard Quest and Christiane Amanpour.

Economy

Run From Any Unregistered Online Investment Platform—SEC Warns Nigerians

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SEC Nigeria

By Aduragbemi Omiyale

For the umpteenth time, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has run to the rooftop to warn Nigerians against putting their hard-earned money in online investment platforms not authorised to operate in the nation’s capital market.

SEC is the apex regulatory agency in the Nigerian capital market. It issues licences to companies operating in the ecosystem.

In a statement on Thursday, the organisation expressed concerns over the rising “promotion of unregistered online investment schemes on social media applications and websites, including WhatsApp, Instagram, Telegram, Facebook, TikTok and other digital platforms.

In the notice, the SEC emphasised that, “Many of these investment schemes exhibit characteristics of Ponzi or Prohibited investment schemes, while some operators of such schemes also provide unauthorised investment services to members of the public.”

In view of these, the commission advised members of the public “to refrain from investing or participating in any unregistered online investment platform or scheme promising unrealistic or guaranteed returns.”

“Members of the public are further advised not to rely on investment advisories circulated through online platforms by persons or entities not registered by the commission, as reliance on such advisories may expose investors to significant financial losses and fraudulent schemes,” it noted.

“The public is reminded that, under the provisions of the Investments and Securities Act, 2025, only entities registered by the commission are authorised to promote investment services, provide investment advisory services or solicit funds from the public in the Nigerian capital market,” another part of the circular signed by the management noted.

The regulator urged the investing public to verify the registration status of any platform, company, or entity offering investment opportunities on its dedicated portal: https://sec.gov.ng/fintech-and-innovation- hub-finport/registered-fintech-operators/ or https://www.sec.gov.ng/cmos before transacting or investing with them.

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Economy

Dangote Rejects NNPC Bid to Raise Stake in Soon-to-Be Listed Refinery

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NNPC vs Dangote refinery

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigerian businessman, Mr Aliko Dangote, has disclosed that he rejected requests by the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC) Limited to increase its 7.25 per cent stake in the Dangote Petroleum Refinery.

Mr Dangote stated this in a podcast with the Chief Executive Officer of the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund, Mr Nicolai Tangen.

In the podcast interview, the billionaire revealed that the state oil company offered to increase its current 7.25 per cent stake in the 650,000 barrels per day plant.

However, this was rejected because the company is planning to go public and give other Nigerians the opportunity to own shares in the plant.

Recall that the refinery is planning a multi-exchange listing and targeting a valuation of $50 billion. It has appointed a consortium of three financial advisers to manage the offering. Stanbic IBTC Capital to handle international book-building process and lead engagement with foreign portfolio investors; Vetiva Capital Management to manage retail investor distribution within Nigeria; and FirstCap to focus on placements with Nigerian institutional investors, particularly pension funds.

It was reported in 2021 that the NNPC acquired the 7.25 per cent stake in the refinery for $1 billion, with an option to acquire the remaining 12.75 per cent stake by June 2024.

However, the national oil firm reneged on its decision.

During the interview with the Norwegian Sovereign Wealth Fund CEO, Mr Dangote revealed that the state oil company had made attempts to acquire more stakes in the refinery, but this was turned down.

The revelation came while he was responding to questions about what could be the biggest risks to his businesses.

“Actually, if there are civil wars, which is not in the offing at all.

“The other biggest risk is government inconsistencies in policies, and we are addressing that one because if you look at our refinery, the national oil company already owns 7.25 per cent, and they are trying to buy more. We are the ones that said no; we want to now spread it and have everybody be part of it.”

In 2024, Mr Dangote revealed that under the former Group Chief Executive Officer, Mr Mele Kyari, the NNPC reduced its stake in the refinery from 20 per cent to 7.25 per cent. He disclosed that the NNPC had only a 7.2 per cent stake in the refinery and not 20 per cent as many Nigerians believed.

“The agreement was actually 20 per cent, which we had with NNPC, and they did not pay the balance of the money up until last year; then we gave them another extension up until June (2024), and they said that they would remain where they had already paid, which is 7.2 per cent. So NNPC owns only 7.2 per cent, not 20 per cent,” Mr Dangote stated at the time.

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Economy

Pathway Asset Management’s Adekunle Alade Unveils Blueprint for Sustainable Wealth, Investment Opportunities

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Pathway Asset Management's Adekunle Alade

In this interview with Mr Adekunle Alade, Founder and Director of Pathway Asset Management Limited, he discusses the blueprint for sustainable wealth and investment opportunities. Excepts;

Could you please tell us about Pathway Asset Management?

Pathway Asset Management is registered and regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) Nigeria as a fund and portfolio manager company with the main focus of helping individuals, retail, HNIs and institutions make smarter investment decisions and build long-term sustainable wealth. We understand how complex and unpredictable the Nigerian market can be because we operate in it every day. So, we’ve built a firm that is clear, disciplined, and driven by research, not guesswork.

Our offerings cut across Pathway Fixed Deposit Notes, Privately Managed Notes, Fixed Income Notes, Pathway Dollar Notes, Funds/Portfolio Management, Pathway Money Market Fund (coming soon), Pathway Dollar Funds (Coming Soon), and Investment Advisory services, all tailored to each client’s goal. But beyond the products, what really defines us is how we think: deep client understanding, strong governance, and a long-term mindset. That’s what guides every decision we make.

Can you walk us through Pathway Asset Management’s core investment philosophy and how it differentiates the firm in Nigeria’s asset management space?

Our philosophy is simple and profound. We are partners in our clients’ financial success. We create value, but never at the expense of disciplined risk management. Every investment is carefully assessed to ensure the returns justify the risk, helping clients move from speculation to structured, sustainable wealth building.

What sets us apart is our advisory DNA. We don’t just offer investment products; we bring an investment banker’s eye to asset management, combining strategic advice with precise execution.

We combine diversification, deep sector insight, and strong risk discipline to solve wealth preservation challenges, while prioritising transparency, client experience, and long-term outcomes.

Your portfolio includes Fixed Deposit Notes, Privately Managed Notes, and Portfolio Management services. How do these products cater to varying investor risk appetites?

We’ve designed our products to meet clients exactly where they are. For more conservative investors, our Fixed Deposit and Money Market offerings are focused on capital preservation, liquidity, and stable income. For clients looking for higher returns, our Privately Managed Notes, across fixed income, hybrid, equity and dollar structures, offer more optimised yield with a bit more structure. 

For more sophisticated or institutional clients, our portfolio management services provide a fully tailored approach. Some clients prefer us to take full discretion, while others want to stay involved. Essentially, we have a vehicle specifically engineered for different investors’ financial goals.

What’s next for Pathway Asset Management? Where are you focusing growth?

With the recent unveiling of our Board of Directors, we’ve strengthened our governance and strategic direction, which is important for where we’re going.

Over the next few months, our focus is on deepening client relationships, expanding our product offerings, especially mutual funds like our upcoming Pathway Money Market Fund and positioning the firm to take advantage of emerging opportunities. For us, growth is not just about scale; it’s about scaling responsibly while maintaining the discipline and trust we’ve built.

What gap in the market is the upcoming Pathway Money Market Fund designed to fill?

For a long time, the Nigerian investment space has had a gap. You either had low-yield savings accounts or high-entry institutional investments. The Pathway Money Market fund is designed to bridge that gap.

With rising inflation, many people are losing value just by keeping money in traditional bank accounts. What we’re doing is opening access, giving everyday investors a simple, regulated way to benefit from high-quality government and corporate instruments with as low as N5,000 to start investing. We want someone with relatively small capital to still participate in opportunities that were previously out of reach. Our focus isn’t just on returns; it’s about providing a liquid, SEC-regulated vehicle where a small saver can get a big-market yield and still have capital preserved.

As a firm regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission, how do you ensure compliance while maintaining operational efficiency?

At Pathway Asset Management Limited, we view compliance as a competitive advantage, built into how we operate every day. To maintain efficiency while meeting and compliance, we have adopted a ‘Compliance-by-Design’ approach from onboarding clients to tech-enabled reporting and risk management without over-leveraging our resources.

We’ve put in place strong internal controls, invested in the right people, have clear processes, and a culture of accountability across the firm. At the same time, we leverage technology and experienced professionals to ensure compliance is seamless, not a bottleneck.

So, for us, it’s about getting it right from the start; operating efficiently while staying fully aligned with regulatory standards.

How do you assess the impact of Nigeria’s current monetary policy direction on investment portfolios?

We’re in a transition phase, from aggressive tightening to a more stable environment.

For us, that creates opportunity. In fixed income, we’re locking in high yields now, knowing that rates may compress as inflation moderates.

At the same time, improving stability in exchange rates and interest rates creates a better environment for businesses, which supports selective equity exposure.

So, rather than reacting, we’re positioning clients to benefit from both sides: strong yields today and potential upside as the macro environment improves.

What safeguards are in place to protect investor capital across your managed portfolios?

At Pathway Asset Management, the security of investor capital is built into our operations through a multi-layered ‘Triple-Lock’ framework. We operate strictly under the license and oversight of the Securities and Exchange Commission, Nigeria. This means our operations are subject to periodic review, stringent reporting requirements, and minimum capital adequacy standards. 

We don’t just follow the rules; we embrace them as a baseline for trust. But beyond that, one key safeguard is that we don’t hold client funds directly; assets (cash and securities) are held by independent SEC-approved custodians. That separation is critical for transparency and protection. We also apply disciplined investment policies. We don’t chase returns at the expense of safety. Every investment goes through a rigorous assessment process.

How does Pathway Asset Management manage downside risks, particularly in a volatile macroeconomic environment marked by inflation and FX instability?

In a market like Nigeria, volatility isn’t an anomaly; it’s a constant. Our approach to managing downside risk is built on dynamic asset allocation and financial discipline. We also hedge against currency risk by giving clients access to dollar-denominated investments, which helps preserve value.

On inflation, we focus on assets that can reprice or deliver returns above inflation over time. Our focus is not just on returns, but on protecting value and delivering consistency.

What is your outlook for Nigeria’s asset management industry over the next five years?

Nigeria’s asset management industry is entering a defining transition period, and the SEC’s recapitalisation directive is the central catalyst. Over the next five years, the industry will move from a fragmented, lightly capitalised landscape to a more consolidated, institutional, and competitive ecosystem. 

Many smaller or undercapitalised firms will be unable to comply independently, leading to mergers, acquisitions, or outright exits. Within the first two to three years, the number of asset managers is likely to shrink significantly, leaving behind a smaller group of well-capitalised firms alongside a handful of specialised niche players.

In terms of growth, the outlook is structurally positive but cyclical. Assets under management (AUM) are expected to expand at a solid pace, supported by high domestic interest rates, increased financial savings, and improved macroeconomic reforms. 

However, this growth will remain sensitive to macro conditions, particularly FX stability and interest rate cycles. Because a large portion of capital inflows into Nigeria is still short-term and yield-driven, the industry should expect periods of volatility rather than smooth, linear expansion.

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