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Nigeria Still Safe to Borrow Additional N7.9trn—FSDH

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Nigeria's total debts

By Dipo Olowookere

Some days ago, the Debt Management Office (DMO) released the public debt profile of the country and from their report, Nigeria’s debt stood at N24.4 trillion as at December 31, 2018.

The release of the report stirred another debate in the country, with different stakeholders appealing to federal government to reduce its borrowings.

But analysts at FSDH Research have said Nigeria still has room to borrow an additional N7.89 trillion before reaching a threshold of about N32 trillion.

In its report released this week, which was obtained by Business Post, the Lagos-based investment company said based on the fact that the public debt-to-GDP ratio of Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy, was still under 20 percent, precisely 18.89 percent, it can still get more loans to reach the 25 percent benchmark set for itself and the 56 percent international threshold set for countries in Nigeria’s peer group.

FSDH Research argued that countries like China, South Africa, India, UK and USA all have high debt-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of over 50 percent, but stressed that they have successfully managed to deploy their borrowings into activities that can stimulate revenue generation including education, transportation, construction, security, technology, and other growth-enhancing infrastructure.

“By utilizing these borrowed funds in areas that improve the ease of doing business in their countries, they have been able to grow their economies further, create job opportunities, and create more avenues for their governments to grow their revenue,” the report said.

It advised the Nigerian government to diversify its revenue and create multiple sources so as to change the present narrative.

“Just as FSDH Research has suggested several times in our previous reports, there is an urgent need to expand the revenue base of the country through the growth of the non-oil sector.

“We suggest that the government should adopt strategies to increase and broaden its revenue. Some of these strategies include an increase in the tax base of the country (apart from an increase in the tax rate), removal of all administrative delays in obtaining licences and approvals (including titles to landed properties for building and agricultural purposes), the sale of unprofitable government assets and, removal of subsidies on electricity and Premium Motor Spirit (PMS).

“In addition, we emphasize that borrowing should be tied to specific projects that can improve the competitiveness of the country, such as the FGN Sukuk Bond.

“To conclude, as individuals and business entities in Nigeria, we can help government generate more revenue by paying our taxes and other dues as and when due. And government must surely reciprocate with the provision of appropriate facilities that will make life better for all,” it said.

Read the full report below

Have you ever had to borrow money and accumulate debt? Some individuals believe that debt is bad and as a result they live within their limited resources. But are debts really bad? Now, imagine that you run a chocolate-production business and you receive a large order to supply chocolates to a big customer who will surely pay you after supply.

After considering your resources, you find out that you do not have sufficient funds to purchase the raw materials required to produce the chocolates.

You are then faced with a decision to either borrow money from a willing lender to finance the operation and make your money later or not to borrow and lose the business. What will you do? It is your choice to make but borrowing is definitely a better option if the money is used for productive activities that have the capacity to pay back the debt as well as its associated interest.

Just as individuals and companies are faced with the dilemma of whether or not to borrow, countries also face the same problem.

Although it is difficult to find any country that does not borrow, there are key questions each country must ask. How much debt should they contract? What projects will the debt be used for? How will the loan be repaid on top of the associated interest? Whom should they approach to lend the money? What will be the impact of the loan servicing on the country’s ability to perform her obligations to the citizens? Some countries have shown that debt is not bad in itself. What truly matters is the productivity of the debt that is contracted.

Countries such as China, South Africa, India, UK and USA have high Debt-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of over 50%. Our computation shows that despite the significant increase in Nigeria’s public debt in recent years, standing at N24 trillion, Nigeria’s Public Debt-to-GDP ratio is less that 20%. Based on this measure, Nigeria could borrow more.

The countries mentioned above, however, have managed to deploy their borrowings into activities that can stimulate revenue generation including education, transportation, construction, security, technology, and other growth-enhancing infrastructure. By utilizing these borrowed funds in areas that improve the ease of doing business in their countries, they have been able to grow their economies further, create job opportunities, and create more avenues for their governments to grow their revenue.

So, you might now be thinking, maybe debt is not bad after all. But, you must not be quick to say this. The matter of public debt must be weighed carefully and thoroughly. Just as there are countries that have done well because of increased borrowing, there are other countries whose high, unsustainable debt levels have not translated into economic development.

In reviewing Nigeria’s debt profile, FSDH Research observes that the level of debt has been on the increase over the years. As at December 2018, the total public debt increased to N24.39trillion. But this is not where the issue lies.

A further analysis shows that the Public Debt-to-GDP ratio is 18.89%, which is below the 25% benchmark the Federal Government of Nigeria (FGN) sets for Nigeria and the 56% international threshold set for countries in Nigeria’s peer group.

The 25% benchmark gives Nigeria a leeway to borrow an additional N7.89 trillion given her level of GDP. But before you are quick to celebrate, there is the need to consider one very important factor: the ability of the country to service the debt without causing untold hardship on the country.

In measuring the ability of a country to service her debt obligations, we look at the ratio of domestic debt service-to-FGN FAAC allocation.

This is where the problem lies for Nigeria. Low revenue generation makes it very difficult for the FGN to meet its debt obligations without sacrificing other important responsibilities of government.

FSDH Research notes that the current high debt service to revenue structure in Nigeria is unsustainably high and the high figure is due to the low revenue of the country. Although the strategies of the Debt Management Office (DMO) in debt management and the Central Bank of Bank of Nigeria (CBN) in monetary policy administration have reduced the interest burden of the government, Nigeria needs to accelerate revenue generation to enable it to meet all her debt obligations without stress.

The way to change this narrative is for Nigeria to diversify her revenue and create multiple sources. Just as FSDH Research has suggested several times in our previous reports, there is an urgent need to expand the revenue base of the country through the growth of the non-oil sector.

We suggest that the government should adopt strategies to increase and broaden its revenue. Some of these strategies include an increase in the tax base of the country (apart from an increase in the tax rate), removal of all administrative delays in obtaining licences and approvals (including titles to landed properties for building and agricultural purposes), the sale of unprofitable government assets and, removal of subsidies on electricity and Premium Motor Spirit (PMS).

In addition, we emphasize that borrowing should be tied to specific projects that can improve the competitiveness of the country, such as the FGN Sukuk Bond.

To conclude, as individuals and business entities in Nigeria, we can help government generate more revenue by paying our taxes and other dues as and when due. And government must surely reciprocate with the provision of appropriate facilities that will make life better for all.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via dipo.olowookere@businesspost.ng

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Economy

$1trn Economy: Edun Tasks State-Owned Enterprises on Transparency, Ethics

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wale edun senate committee

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, has called on state-owned enterprises to increase standards of transparency, ethics, and performance as Nigeria pushes to build a $1 trillion economy.

Speaking at the MOFI Corporate Governance Forum in Abuja, the Minister described the newly introduced MOFI Scorecard as a vital benchmark for institutional health, designed to position state-owned enterprises for investment, growth, and long-term value creation.

According to Mr Edun, this scorecard is not just a document; it’s a test, adding that strong governance attracts capital, builds trust, and delivers real economic returns.

The two-day forum, themed Ensuring Value Creation in State-Owned Enterprises Through Better Corporate Governance, brought together CEOs, regulators, and development partners to examine how better oversight can unlock Nigeria’s public asset potential.

Referencing entities like NNPC Limited, Mr Edun noted that state-owned enterprises must be investor-ready as the government shifts from debt-heavy budgets to equity-based growth.

He also pointed to positive macro signals and falling food and fuel prices as early signs of a stabilising economy.

On his part, MOFI Chairman, Mr Shamsudeen Usman, confirmed that the scorecard will be enforced through independent assessments, including MOFI itself.

“We are not asking others to do what we haven’t already done,” he said.

Adding his input, MOFI CEO, Mr Armstrong Takang, outlined a rollout that includes third-party evaluations, remediation plans, and public recognition through the annual MOFI Excellence Awards.

Backed by the World Bank, the initiative marks a shift in how Nigeria manages public wealth, with governance now central to growth, resilience, and investor confidence.

The introduction of the governance scorecard is a testament to the Federal Government’s commitment to transforming Nigeria’s economy. As the country moves forward, one thing is clear: transparency, accountability, and growth will be the guiding principles for state-owned enterprises.

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Economy

NASD Market Capitalisation Jumps to N1.925trn

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NASD Market capitalisation

By Adedapo Adesanya

The market capitalisation of the NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange rose by 1.70 per cent or N32.36 billion on Thursday, April 10, closing at N1.925 trillion, in contrast to the N1.892 trillion quoted at the preceding session.

However, the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) went up by 10.46 points or 0.32 per cent to 3,287.85 points from the 3,277.39 points it ended a day earlier.

The market capitalisation was higher yesterday after admitting additional shares of Infrastructure Credit Guarantee Company Plc (InfraCredit) to the platform after regulatory approval. The firm joined the NASD Exchange on March 6.

The company, backed by the Nigerian sovereign wealth fund, added 11.166 million units to bring its volume to 26.421 million.

At the trading session, FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc gained N1.91 to close at N38.50 per unit versus N36.59 per unit, Mixta Real Estate Plc rose by 41 Kobo to N4.55 per share from the previous closing value of N4.14 per share, Lagos Building Infrastructure Company (LBIC) Plc grew by 17 Kobo to N2.63 per unit from N2.80 per unit, and Paintcom Investment Plc improved by 2 Kobo to N10.74 per share from N10.72 per share, while Geo-Fluids Plc declined by 22 Kobo to N2.00 per unit from N2.22 per unit.

The volume of transactions surged by 9,665.9 per cent to 18.1 million units from 185,449 units, the value of transactions soared by 7,174.3 per cent to N192.9 million from N192.9 million, and the number of deals rose by 81.8 per cent to 20 deals from 11 deals.

Impresit Bakolori Plc ended the day as the most active stock by volume (year-to-date) for trading 533.9 million units worth N520.9 million, trailed by Industrial and General Insurance (IGI) Plc with 71.2 million units valued at N24.2 million, and Geo Fluids Plc with 44.6 million units sold for N90.2 million.

FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc also remained as the most active stock by value (year-to-date) with 14.5 million units valued at N559.2 million, followed by Impresit Bakolori Plc with 533.9 million units worth N520.9 million, and Afriland Properties Plc with 17.8 million units sold for N365.0 million.

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Economy

Naira Crashes to N1,629/$1 at Official Market, N1,625/$1 at Black Market

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reject old Naira notes

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira witnessed a depreciation of 1.05 per cent or N16.97 against the US Dollar at the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Thursday, April 10, exchanging at N1,629.94/$1 compared with the previous day’s rate of N1,612.99/$1.

In the same official market, the Nigerian currency, however, traded flat against the Pound Sterling and the Euro during the session at N2,085.01/£1 and N1,805.64/€1, respectively.

As for the black market, the domestic currency depreciated against the greenback yesterday by N5 to sell for N1,620/$1, in contrast to the N1,615/$1 it was exchanged at midweek.

The Naira had stabilise on Wednesday in the spot market after President Donald Trump of the United States announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for more than 75 nations, including Nigeria, that did not retaliate to his sweeping duties announced a week ago.

However, China, which recently placed steeped retaliatory tariffs on US goods, did not get any relief, as Mr Trump hiked the total levy on Chinese goods to 125 per cent.

Market analysts raise worries about a secondary effect of a trade war between the US and China, and how it can have effected on other nations’ economies.

Even as the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) continued to prop up the local currency, in the last week, the Naira has exchanged between the N1,570 and N1,620 mark.

Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was mixed on Thursday after exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw outflows even as prices surged after President Trump announced a 90-day pause in tariffs on most countries, excluding China.

The dwindling demand can be attributed to the macroeconomic uncertainty caused by the US-China trade tensions that has led to macro investors selling every asset, including crypto ETFs, for cash.

Litecoin (LTC) gained 1.9 per cent to trade at $75.88, Cardano (ADA) jumped by 1.4 per cent to $0.6321, Dogecoin (DOGE) appreciated by 0.3 per cent to $0.1575, and Solana (SOL) rose by 0.2 per cent to $116.94.

On the flip side, Ethereum (ETH) dropped 3.6 per cent to settle at $1,533.42, Bitcoin (BTC) shed 1.2 per cent to end at $81,017.23, Ripple (XRP) slumped by 0.2 per cent to $1.99, and Binance Coin (BNB) went south by 0.1 per cent to $579.45, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.

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