Economy
Nigeria Week Ahead – CBN Meeting, Oil & Naira In Focus
By Lukman Otunuga
This will be a big week for Africa’s largest economy as its reveals updates on monetary policy.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 11.5% in March despite inflation currently well above the 6-9% target.
Central banks across the globe have waged war against rising prices by adopting an aggressive approach towards tighter monetary policy. Examples range from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Canada among many others.
However, the CBN has made it clear that there needs to be a solid recovery in economic growth before it pulls the trigger on higher interest rates.
It is worth keeping in mind that Nigeria remains exposed to external risks in the form of oil price volatility, geopolitical tensions, rising COVID-19 cases in China, and global growth fears. This could force the CBN to maintain the status quo on interest rates in the second quarter of 2022, even as other central banks take action.
In regards to the Naira, it weakened to a record low of 585 per dollar on the black market last Friday as dollar demand jumped. With the local currency on a slippery decline and likely to weaken further amid dollar shortages, 600 per dollar could be the next key level of interest.
Outside of Nigeria, oil prices appreciated on Monday after Russia-Ukraine talks appeared to be at a standstill. The past few weeks have certainly been volatile for oil which soared to record highs in March before crashing more than 20% last week to sink below $100.
Despite the massive selloff, the fundamentals still remain in favour of oil bulls with geopolitical risks and supply concerns limiting downside losses. As identified in our previous reports, Nigeria exports crude but imports all by-products of the resources.
So, even though rising energy prices may be good news for energy producers, this is stifled by Nigeria’s poor infrastructure, sub-optimal oil production, and fuel subsidies.
On the global front, there will be many key economic reports from major economies and speeches from central bank officials. We could be some market action on Thursday as US President Biden attends the NATO summit. In regards to currencies, the dollar remains on standby ahead of another busy week while gold is trading around $1926.
Disclaimer: This written/visual material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. The content should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice and/or a solicitation for any transactions. It does not imply an obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
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Lukman Otunuga is a Senior Research Analyst at FXTM
Economy
NGX Group, FG to Deepen Women’s Inclusion in Capital Markets
By Aduragbemi Omiyale
The federal government, through the Minister of Women Affairs and Social Development, is working together with the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Group Plc to deepen the participation of women in capital markets.
The Minister of Women Affairs and Social Development, Ms Imaan Sulaiman-Ibrahim, underscored the urgency of inclusion in achieving national economic ambitions.
“The capital market reflects our collective choices, who participates, who has access, and who benefits. Women remain underrepresented in formal finance despite their critical role in Nigeria’s productivity.
“Through strategic partnerships and targeted interventions, we are working to change this narrative and expand opportunities for women across the economy.
“Achieving a one-trillion-dollar economy requires the full participation of Nigerian women,” she said at the closing gong ceremony at the NGX on Tuesday in Lagos.
She said the government was ready to partner with capital market stakeholders to expand financial access and unlock opportunities for women across the country.
Welcoming the Minister, the chairman of NGX Group, Mr Umaru Kwairanga, commended the Ministry’s leadership in promoting women’s development and economic participation.
“Women are central to Nigeria’s economic progress. As we work towards a more inclusive and resilient economy, the capital market remains a vital platform for expanding access to finance, supporting women-led enterprises, and enabling broader participation in wealth creation.
“NGX Group remains committed to partnering with the Ministry to drive sustainable impact and empower the next generation of women leaders,” he stated.
Also speaking, the Director General of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), Mr Emomotimi Agama, emphasised the importance of deliberate inclusion.
“Behind every successful market are women. For Nigeria’s capital market to reach its full potential, we must be intentional about empowering women as active participants.
“Current participation levels do not yet reflect our population or potential. Collaborations like this send a strong call to action for more women across Nigeria to engage with the market and contribute to national growth,” the SEC chief stated.
On his part, the chief executive of NGX Group, Mr Temi Popoola, said, “At NGX Group, we are building a dynamic and inclusive market ecosystem that expands access to investment opportunities and supports diverse participants. Through partnerships such as this, we are unlocking new pathways for women to participate as investors, entrepreneurs, and wealth creators.”
Economy
Nigeria Can’t do Without Importing Fuel For Now—Lokpobiri
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Minister of State for Petroleum Resources (Oil), Mr Heineken Lokpobiri, has acknowledged that the country still depends on imported petroleum products as domestic refining cannot fully meet local demand.
Speaking on the state of the downstream sector at the CERAWeek by S&P Global Conference in Houston, Texas, Mr Lokpobiri acknowledged that while local refining capacity has improved significantly, it remains insufficient to fully cover national consumption.
The Minister noted that Nigeria was making measurable progress, with domestic refining contributing a growing share of supply, but added that imports remain a critical component of the country’s fuel supply mix for now.
“We are not yet at a point where local production alone can satisfy total consumption,” he said, underscoring the need to sustain imports while capacity continues to build.
The Minister emphasised that Nigeria’s daily fuel consumption stands at about 50 million litres, while domestic refining output remains below that level, making imports necessary to bridge the shortfall and ensure supply stability.
Data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) aligns with this position, showing that although local refining volumes have risen in recent months, they are not yet sufficient to fully meet national demand.
Dangote refinery had earlier this year said it can supply 75 million litres of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) daily against an estimated national consumption of 50 million litres, alongside 25 million litres of Automotive Gas Oil (AGO) compared with an estimated daily demand of 14 million litres.
It also stated that it has the capacity to supply 20 million litres of aviation fuel daily, far above the estimated maximum domestic consumption of four million litres.
According to the refinery, the availability of volumes above prevailing demand provides critical supply buffers, enhances market stability and reduces reliance on imports, particularly during periods of peak demand or logistical disruption.
The minister highlighted what he described as a fundamental shift in Nigeria’s petroleum sector following recent reforms.
He noted that Nigeria has moved away from a subsidy-driven regime that, for years, placed a heavy fiscal burden on the country and distorted the downstream market.
According to him, the removal of subsidies has not only eased pressure on government finances but also curtailed widespread fuel smuggling and arbitrage that previously thrived under price differentials.
Mr Lokpobiri said the deregulation of the downstream sector is beginning to deliver results, with a more transparent and competitive market structure emerging. This, he added, is helping to restore investor confidence and attract new investments into refining and related infrastructure.
The minister also pointed to ongoing efforts to rehabilitate existing refineries and support new refining projects, noting that these initiatives are critical to closing the gap between production and consumption.
He emphasised that while Nigeria is making steady progress toward boosting domestic refining capacity, noting that the transition will take time to sustain investment and policy consistency.
At the same time, Mr Lokpobiri underscored Nigeria’s ambition to evolve beyond meeting local demand to becoming a supplier of refined petroleum products within the West African region.
However, he maintained that achieving that goal depends first on significantly expanding domestic capacity.
Economy
Nigeria to Improve Efficiency in Import, Export Processes
By Adedapo Adesanya
Nigeria is targeting cutting port delays, reducing costs, and improving efficiency in import and export processes with the National Single Window (NSW), a major digital trade reform.
The reform initiative is designed to address cargo dwell time, eliminate multiple agency visits and process duplication, and reduce human interference and operational bottlenecks.
The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Mr Wale Edun, speaking in Lagos, explained that the initiative, alongside the upgrade of Apapa and Tin Can Island ports, represents a turning point in Nigeria’s trade and economic trajectory.
Mr Edun said that as of 2025, cargo dwell time at Nigerian ports averages between 18 and 21 days, about 475 per cent higher than the global average of four days, resulting in high costs of doing business, delays for importers and exporters, and reduced competitiveness of Nigerian goods.
According to him, the NSW and port modernisation are part of a broader economic strategy under the leadership of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to strengthen macroeconomic stability, improve the ease of doing business, attract and scale investment, and achieve a 7 per cent medium-term economic growth target.
He added that the reforms demonstrate a coordinated, system-wide approach to economic transformation.
“Phase 1 of the NSW directly targets the 73 per cent transaction delay component by introducing a single digital platform for trade documentation, eliminating multiple agency visits and duplicative processes, and enabling electronic submission of Licences, Permits, and Certificates (LPCOs), digital manifest processing, centralised risk management across agencies, transparent electronic payments, faster document processing, reduced human interface and bottlenecks, and more predictable and transparent timelines,” he said.
He added that the launch of Phase 1 of the NSW coincides with last week’s deal to upgrade Apapa Port (built in 1913) and Tin Can Island Port (built in 1977), describing both as coordinated reforms designed to cut cargo dwell time, reduce trade costs, and unlock economic growth.
According to the Minister of Trade and Investment, Mrs Jumoke Oduwole, the platform is scheduled to go live on Friday and will include one shipping line and one port.
“These are the kinds of game changers in terms of trade facilitation that we need,” Oduwole said, adding that it is a priority project for an economy of Nigeria’s size that is working to emphasise trading.
Mrs Oduwole said streamlining imports and exports at the ports could have a “multiplier effect” in terms of balance of trade and foreign exchange generation.
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