Economy
Nigeria Week Ahead – CBN Meeting, Oil & Naira In Focus
By Lukman Otunuga
This will be a big week for Africa’s largest economy as its reveals updates on monetary policy.
The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 11.5% in March despite inflation currently well above the 6-9% target.
Central banks across the globe have waged war against rising prices by adopting an aggressive approach towards tighter monetary policy. Examples range from the Federal Reserve, Bank of England, and Bank of Canada among many others.
However, the CBN has made it clear that there needs to be a solid recovery in economic growth before it pulls the trigger on higher interest rates.
It is worth keeping in mind that Nigeria remains exposed to external risks in the form of oil price volatility, geopolitical tensions, rising COVID-19 cases in China, and global growth fears. This could force the CBN to maintain the status quo on interest rates in the second quarter of 2022, even as other central banks take action.
In regards to the Naira, it weakened to a record low of 585 per dollar on the black market last Friday as dollar demand jumped. With the local currency on a slippery decline and likely to weaken further amid dollar shortages, 600 per dollar could be the next key level of interest.
Outside of Nigeria, oil prices appreciated on Monday after Russia-Ukraine talks appeared to be at a standstill. The past few weeks have certainly been volatile for oil which soared to record highs in March before crashing more than 20% last week to sink below $100.
Despite the massive selloff, the fundamentals still remain in favour of oil bulls with geopolitical risks and supply concerns limiting downside losses. As identified in our previous reports, Nigeria exports crude but imports all by-products of the resources.
So, even though rising energy prices may be good news for energy producers, this is stifled by Nigeria’s poor infrastructure, sub-optimal oil production, and fuel subsidies.
On the global front, there will be many key economic reports from major economies and speeches from central bank officials. We could be some market action on Thursday as US President Biden attends the NATO summit. In regards to currencies, the dollar remains on standby ahead of another busy week while gold is trading around $1926.
Disclaimer: This written/visual material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. The content should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice and/or a solicitation for any transactions. It does not imply an obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
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Lukman Otunuga is a Senior Research Analyst at FXTM
By Adedapo Adesanya
The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange was down by 2.48 per cent on Friday, June 19, with the Unlisted Security Index shedding 108.36 points to close at 4,252.73 points compared with the previous day’s 4,361.09 points.
During the trading day, the market capitalisation of the OTC securities exchange dropped 2.18 per cent or N67.29 billion to settle at N2.552 trillion, in contrast to Thursday’s N2.609 trillion.
The alternative stock market was in the red yesterday after finishing with three price losers led by Central Securities Clearing System (CSCS) Plc, which gave up N8.57 to trade at N77.77 per share versus the preceding day’s N86.34. FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc lost N8.19 to quote at N170.00 per unit compared with the previous session’s N178.19 per unit, and Food Concepts Plc crashed by 26 Kobo to end at N2.51 per share versus N2.77 per share.
Business Post reports that there were also three price gainers during the session, led by Golden Capital Plc, which chalked up 67 Kobo to sell at N13.67 per unit versus N13.00 per unit. Afriland Properties Plc gained 65 Kobo to trade at N16.85 per share compared with the previous price of N16.20 per share, and MRS Oil added 3 Kobo to close at N142.23 per unit versus N142.00 per unit.
The volume of trades was up by 20.3 per cent on Friday to 954,106 units from 792,835 units, and the number of deals increased by 75 per cent to 35 deals from 20 deals, while the value of transactions went down by 12.9 per cent to N42.7 million from N49.0 million.
The most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis was Great Nigeria Insurance (GNI) Plc, with 3.4 billion units worth N8.4 billion, followed by Infrastructure Credit Guarantee (Infracredit) Plc with 2.3 billion units sold for N6.5 billion, and CSCS Plc with 67.8 million units exchanged for N4.7 billion.
The most traded stock by volume on a year-to-date basis was also GNI Plc, with 3.4 billion units valued at N8.4 billion, followed by Infracredit Plc with 2.3 billion units traded for N6.5 billion, and Resourcery Plc with 1.1 billion units transacted for N415.7 million.
By Dipo Olowookere
The local stock exchange remained in the red on Friday after it further depreciated by 0.62 per cent due to panic sell-offs in some bellwether equities.
NAHCO lost 10.00 per cent to trade at N148.50, Royal Exchange depreciated by 10.00 per cent to N1.53, GTCO slumped by 9.97 per cent to N115.55, First Holdco dropped 9.84 per cent to quote at N55.00, and Neimeth slipped by 9.60 per cent to N28.12.
On the flip side, Deap Capital increased by 9.89 per cent to N4.89, RT Briscoe expanded by 9.62 per cent to N13.10, International Energy Insurance advanced by 7.43 per cent to N5.06, Jaiz Bank gained 7.14 per cent to sell for N9.00, and Living Trust Mortgage Bank rose by 5.26 per cent to N4.00.
During the session, the energy index chalked up 2.35 per cent, but this was not enough to lift the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited when the closing gong was struck by 4 pm to signify the close of trading activities.
This was because the banking sector lost 4.41 per cent, the insurance counter shed 1.52 per cent, the industrial goods space declined by 0.71 per cent, and the consumer goods segment tumbled by 0.13 per cent.
Consequently, the All-Share Index (ASI) contracted by 1,463.45 points to 235,941.27 points from 237,404.92 points, and the market capitalisation retreated by M939 billion to N151.327 trillion from N152.266 trillion.
The activity chart was topped by Access Holdings, which posted a turnover of 65.0 million shares valued at N1.5 billion. Zenith Bank sold 35.2 million stocks worth N3.9 billion, Sterling Holdings exchanged 28.4 million equities for N217.8 million, UBA transacted 16.3 million shares valued at N650.7 million, and GTCO traded 14.0 million stocks worth N1.8 billion.
In all, investors transacted 440.4 million equities for N24.7 billion in 50,273 deals, in contrast to the 691.6 million equities valued at N116.9 billion traded in 50,025 deals on Thursday, implying an uptick in the number of deals by 0.50 per cent, and a decrease in the trading volume and value by 36.32 per cent and 78.87 per cent, respectively.
By Adedapo Adesanya
The Naira again depreciated against the United States Dollar by N7.16 or 0.53 per cent in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Friday, June 19, to N1,370.46/$1 from the previous day’s N1,363.30/$1.
In the same vein, the Nigerian currency lost N9.07 against the Pound Sterling at the official market yesterday to trade at N1,814.76/£1 compared with Thursday’s closing price of N1,805.69/£1, and crashed against the Euro by N6.43 to settle at N1,571.50/€1 versus N1,565.07/€1.
Also, the Naira weakened against the greenback in the black market during the session by N5 to sell for N1,390/$1, in contrast to the preceding day’s N1,385/$1, and at the GTBank FX desk, it shed N3 to close at N1,376/$1 versus N1,373/$1.
The official market’s FX liquidity has been facing pressure over the last three trading sessions, contributing to a decline in the official exchange rate due to rising demand for foreign payments.
FX reserves rose to $51.03 billion, the highest level since January 20, 2009, according to data obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The figure also represents the highest since the beginning of the year and under the administration of the current Governor of CBN, Mr Yemi Cardoso.
The latest figure underscores the steady strengthening of Nigeria’s external buffers, which continues to reinforce investor confidence in the Nigerian economy and support exchange rate stability.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was mixed, with Bitcoin (BTC) up by 0.8 per cent to $63,225.80 after trading activity was relatively subdued due to a US federal holiday, as the absence of stock and bond market activity led to quieter conditions across crypto markets, even though digital assets continue to trade around the clock.
Further, TRON (TRX) also gained 0.8 per cent to sell at $0.3230, Binance Coin (BNB) jumped 0.5 per cent to $579.84, and Ethereum (ETH) appreciated by 0.1 per cent to $1,704.23.
On the flip side, Ripple (XRP) declined by 0.9 per cent to $1.13, Cardano (ADA) shed 0.8 per cent to trade at $0.1611, Solana (SOL) fell by 0.1 per cent to $69.23, and Dogecoin (DOGE) slipped by 0.1 per cent to $0.0831, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
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