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Nigerian Economy, Others May Lose $189.7bn in 2020

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Nigerian Economy

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Nigerian economy and others on the African continent could lose $189.7 billion in 2020 as a result of the COVID-19, the African Development Bank (AfDB) in its latest forecast has said.

The continent’s economic growth could, however, rebound in 2021, provided that governments manage the COVID-19 infection rate well, according to the updated forecasts titled The African Economic Outlook 2020 Supplement from the Abidjan-based lender released on Tuesday.

Under projected scenarios for a contraction of growth, Africa could lose between $145.5 billion and $189.7 billion of GDP in 2020, according to the publication.

In a comprehensive socio-economic assessment of the pandemic’s impact, the bank said growth was now projected to rebound to 3 percent in 2021 from -3.4 percent in the worst-case scenario for 2020 as long as governments and development partner respond in a more coordinated, targeted, and rapid manner to be effective in limiting impact.

The figures were included in the revised AfDB’s African Economic Outlook, which was originally published before the pandemic.

The bank said the pandemic could see an additional 49 million Africans pushed into extreme poverty by the pandemic and its aftermath, adding that West and Central Africa stand to be worst hit.

The updated report cautioned that the growth outlook for 2021 and beyond would depend largely on African governments’ effectiveness in flattening the curve of the outbreak and policies to reopen economies.

Speaking on this, Acting Chief Economist and Vice President for Economic Governance and Knowledge Management, Mr Charles Lufumpa, said, “To reopen economies, policymakers needed to follow a phased and incremental approach that carefully evaluates the trade-offs between restarting economic activity too quickly and safeguarding the health of the population.

“Economic activities can be restarted incrementally on the basis of the transmission risks of different sectors,” he added.

On her part, Ms Hanan Morsy, Director of the Macroeconomic Policy, Forecasting and Research Department at AfDB said “The African Economic Outlook 2020 Supplement shows that for the first time in the last half-century, Africa would be facing an economic recession as a fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“This would affect the gains achieved in poverty reduction as an estimated 49 million Africans could be pushed into poverty, with about 30 million jobs at the verge of disappearing.  Policymakers need to act fast to alleviate the impact of the crisis on vulnerable groups through well-targeted social safety net measures.”

AfDB recommended that to reopen economies, policymakers needed to follow a phased and incremental approach that carefully evaluated the trade-offs between restarting economic activity too quickly and safeguarding the health of the population.

It also suggested that countries must build public trust and buy-in and address structural bottlenecks that make the continent more vulnerable to future shocks.

Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.

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Economy

Stanbic IBTC Simplifies Global Trends into Actionable Insights for Clients

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By Modupe Gbadeyanka

Stanbic IBTC Bank, a subsidiary of Stanbic IBTC Holdings Plc, has provided insights that empower businesses to navigate a complex economic landscape.

This was done at its annual Global Markets Economic Outlook forum themed Global Economic Trends and Nigeria’s Position, which was attended by key stakeholders, industry leaders, and clients.

The Executive Director for Corporate and Transaction Banking at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Mr Eric Fajemisin, said the forum reflects the bank’s continued commitment to keeping clients ahead of global shifts that have direct implications for their businesses.

“As global trade patterns continue to realign, it’s important that our clients understand not just what is happening, but what it means for their operations and growth strategies.

“This forum is part of our ongoing effort to translate global trends into actionable insights for businesses operating in Nigeria,” he said.

Also, the Head of Global Markets, Nigeria at Stanbic IBTC Bank, Mr Dare Otitoju, highlighted Nigeria’s growing relevance in global trade conversations, noting the country’s potential to strengthen its position as a trade and investment hub on the continent.

“Nigerians should look forward to a transition from stabilisation to selective growth. Global higher-for-longer rates indicate that capital will reward countries with policy consistency, which Nigeria is building post-reforms. Key areas to watch include infrastructure funding, gas and manufacturing, and capital market opportunities as FX becomes more predictable.

“The Outlook message was clear: while 2026 may not be a boom year, prepared individuals and businesses will find real opportunities. That’s the plan we want Nigerians to leave with,” he stated

On his part, the Resident Representative for Nigeria at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Mr Christian Ebeke, in a keynote address, shed light on Nigeria’s optimistic outlook.

He highlighted several factors, including rising hydrocarbon prices, decreasing global financing costs, and tax reforms that took effect in January 2026, all of which could help the country surpass its revenue targets. He also pointed out the advantages associated with enhanced state policing.

Mr Ebeke stated in his presentation that Nigeria should capitalise on immediate opportunities. This includes securing oil pipelines, improving electricity infrastructure, and shifting investment from government securities to the private sector.

Also, the Special Adviser on Financial Markets and Economic Policy to the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Mr Mayokun Ajibade, emphasised the necessity of addressing excessive liquidity in the banking system as a sustainable means of combating inflation.

He expressed the importance of a balanced approach, advocating for a focus on lowering inflation before pursuing interest rate reductions; noting that the Nigerian banking system has too much liquidity, therefore a decline in interest rates should not be expected without first addressing inflation.

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Economy

Naira Firms to N1,368/$1 at Official Forex Market

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By Adedapo Adesanya

The Naira further appreciated against the United States Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEX) on Monday, July 6, by N1.92 or 0.14 per cent to end at N1,368.27/$1, in contrast to the previous exchange rate of N1,370.19/$1.

The domestic currency also improved its value against the Pound Sterling in the official forex market during the session by N2.98 to trade at N1,826.91/£1 versus last Friday’s value of N1,829.89/£1, and against the Euro, it gained N5.63 to quote at N1,562.69/€1 compared with the preceding session’s N1,568.32/€1.

In the same vein, the Nigerian Naira gained N1 against the US Dollar at the GTBank FX counter during the session to close at N1,831/$1 compared with last Friday’s quoted price of N1,832/$1, and at the parallel market, it remained unchanged at N1,390/$1.

Monday’s appreciation reinforced the local currency’s relative stability witnessed in recent months under ongoing monetary and foreign exchange reforms by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).

Market analysts linked the sustained improvement to stronger foreign-exchange liquidity in the official market, also citing improved investor confidence, which has supported demand and supply conditions in the FX market.

According to analysts, sustained policy measures introduced by the apex bank have continued to strengthen market transparency and price discovery.

Updated data showed the country’s gross external reserves ended the week at $51.46 billion following successive FX inflows from across multiple sources.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin (BTC) held in the low $63,000s, despite Strategy’s disclosure this week that it sold 3,588 bitcoin for about $216 million, its largest sale since abandoning its never-sell stance, which the market largely absorbed without breaking the recovery. It appreciated by 0.2 per cent to $63,069.84, while Solana (SOL) improved by 0.8 per cent to $80.94, and TRON (TRX) expanded by 0.2 per cent to $0.3295.

On the flip side,  Cardano (ADA) fell by 2.5 per cent to $0.1793, Dogecoin (DOGE) slumped by 2.2 per cent to $0.0749, Ripple (XRP) depreciated by 1.1 per cent to $1.12, Binance Coin (BNB) slid by 0.5 per cent to $578.79, and Ethereum (ETH) slipped by 0.2 per cent to $1,767.90, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) sold flat at $1.00 each.

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Economy

NGX Performance Indices Rally 2.15% on Renewed Bullish Sentiment

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By Dipo Olowookere

The performance indices of the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) Limited rallied by 2.15 per cent on Monday, as investors showed confidence in the market.

During the session, First Holdco gained 10.00 per cent to trade at N60.50, Wema Bank also appreciated by 10.00 per cent to N29.70, Aradel Holdings grew by 9.99 per cent to N1,403.30, NGX Group increased by 9.96 per cent to N129.75, and Veritas Kapital rose by 9.92 per cent to N1.44.

Conversely, NAHCO lost 10.00 per cent to quote at N133.65, Vitafoam Nigeria crashed by 10.00 per cent to N170.10, CAP declined by 9.99 per cent to N1.44, May and Baker depreciated by 5.25 per cent to N37.90, and Chams tumbled by 3.06 per cent to N28.12 per cent.

Business Post reports that 58 shares ended on the gainers’ chart and 14 shares finished on the losers’ table, indicating a positive market breadth index and bullish investor sentiment.

The industrial goods space chalked up 4.89 per cent, the energy index expanded by 4.22 per cent, the banking counter improved by 3.05 per cent, the insurance segment advanced by 2.70 per cent, and the consumer goods sector jumped by 0.57 per cent.

At the close of business, the All-Share Index (ASI) went up by 4937.89 points to 234,178.23 points from 229,240.34 points, and the market capitalisation moved higher by N3.168 trillion to N150.271 trillion from N147.103 trillion.

A total of 538.6 million stocks worth N38.7 billion exchanged hands in 64,065 deals during the session, in contrast to the 414.7 million stocks valued at N25.1 billion traded in 47,106 deals last Friday. This implied that the trading volume, value, and number of deals grew by 29.90 per cent, 54.18 per cent, and 36.00 per cent, respectively.

Zenith Bank was the most active stock on Monday with a turnover of 89.5 million units worth N9.8 billion, GTCO transacted 42.5 million units for N5.4 billion, Fidelity Bank exchanged 35.8 million units valued at N636.4 million, Access Holdings sold 31.0 million units worth N721.0 million, and Jaiz Bank traded 16.6 million units for N133.4 million.

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