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Economy

Is Nigerian Equities Market Overvalued?

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Equities Market

By Afrinvest Research

Given the challenges faced between H2:2014 and Q1:2017, investors constantly punished Nigerian equities, with sell-offs recorded across various sectors of the market.

Consequently, Nigerian equities were undervalued, in comparison to peers, presenting ample opportunities for investors to take advantage of some of the companies, which turned out impressive results despite the economic challenges.

Following the reforms in the FX market which resulted in increased FX liquidity and a restoration of investor confidence, massive gains were recorded in the market in 2017 and this has been sustained into 2018, up 12.2% (12/01/2018).

With the market now at an all-time high in terms of market capitalisation and the NSE All Share Index at a 9-year high, there are justifiable fears of overvaluation of the market which raises concerns with regards to a near term correction.

Our approach is to diagnose and probe into the fundamentals as well as technical merit of the overvaluation hypothesis.

From our analysis, average Trailing P/E and P/BV for the Nigerian equities market in the last one month as at 17/01/2018 stood at 13.1x and 1.7x, which are lower than 15.1x and 2.0x respectively for the MSCI Frontier markets index.

Looking back to the last 2-year bull market run Nigeria experienced between 2012 and 2013, the Nigerian equities market was priced at a premium to frontier markets peers in the late cycle of the run, as shown in the average P/E and P/BV multiples of the MSCI Frontier Markets index of 12.5x and 1.6x in 2013 relative to 13.5x and 2.2x of the Nigerian market in the same period.

This implies that despite the rally in the market in 2017 and early trading in 2018, current undervaluation of the Nigerian market by valuation multiples and the proven historical valuation premium Nigerian market enjoys in period of boom suggest there are more miles to clock in the market rally.

Hence, against the backdrop of improving macroeconomic conditions as well as positive outlook for corporate earnings, we believe there is a compelling case for investors to sustain interest in the Nigerian equities market as already noticed in the YTD return of 17.4% (17/01/2018).

Our Scenario Analysis in 2018

A review of our market forecast for 2017, shows that actual performance outperformed our bull case scenario, in which we projected that a contraction in the spread between the official and parallel market rates, an increase in oil production to about 2.2mb/d, oil prices between $55/b to $60/b and MPR at 14.0% will result in a 15.6% appreciation in the benchmark index.

Actual performance for 2017 (+42.3%) surpassed our forecast as investor confidence was reinvigorated following the reforms in the FX market and resilient earnings. In 2018, we envisage that market performance will be largely determined by the following factors:

  1. Earnings fundamental of Corporates;
  2. Stability in the FX market and other macro indicators; and
  3. Funds flow dynamics to emerging and frontier markets.

Our analysis of market trend over the past 10 years, makes a case for a possible repetition of history.

As noticed in 2012 and 2013, the periods following the global economic crisis, sentiment in the local bourse strengthened which drove the ASI 35.4% and 47.2% northwards in the respective years.

In a similar situation, as the economy rebounded from the slump – 2014 to 2016 – in 2017, we expect market sentiment to wax stronger in 2018.

In our scenario analysis for the market performance in 2018, we employed a blend of relative valuation in which we benchmarked our market valuation against multiples for peers in the MSCI Frontier market index and absolute valuation based on price forecasts for our coverage universe which is about 86.0% of the entire market.

From our analysis, the Nigerian market has outperformed the MSCI index on the basis of EPS, growing at a CAGR of 12.2% between 2010 and 2017 vs. a 2.1% decline for the MSCI index in the same period.

Similarly, on a P/E basis, the Nigerian market has commanded higher pricing over the MSCI index in 6 of the 8 years under review.

Against this backdrop, we carried out scenario analysis for the performance of the All Share Index in 2018.

Our forecast for the performance of the benchmark index in 2018 is largely positive as our scenarios (bear, base, bull) all signal appreciation in the benchmark index.

On a relative valuation basis, we noted earlier that our expectations for corporate earnings in 2018 is largely optimistic on the back of improving conditions in the operating environment; hence, we assumed an EPS of N3,377.4 as our base case scenario which implies a 13.0% increase from a trailing EPS of N2,988.8 in the prior year.

Our EPS projection was based on the 7-year EPS CAGR for the All Share Index to arrive at the forecast.

For our P/E projection, we compared current pricing in the Nigerian markets against peers for which the MSCI Frontier Markets index was employed.

In order to arrive at our p/e forecast of 14.1x in the base case scenario, we analysed historical P/E multiple of the ASI relative to the MSCI Frontier Index P/E and assumed a 1.0x premium in line with historical valuation spread.

This methodology yielded an All Share Index projection of 47,620.71 points in our base case scenario, which suggests a 24.5% appreciation in the year.

On an absolute valuation basis, we have a more conservative forecast for market performance, albeit still positive.

Based on our 12-month target prices from our coverage universe of stocks – about 86.0% of market cap – relative to 2017 yearend prices, we forecast a 5.6% jump in market capitalisation, implying ASI projection of 40,384.81 points.

Finally, to make a call on market performance for 2018, we adopted a blend of both valuation methodologies. Based on the foregoing, we arrived at an ASI projection of 45,811.73 points for 2018 which is a 19.8% appreciation from 38,243.19 points in 2017.

Our bear case (+7.7% to 41,189.9 points) and bull case (+32.7% to 50,749.10 points) also follow the same trend and further buttress the consensus view of positive market performance in 2018.

Whilst we note that developments in the macro space will also determine overall market performance, we opine that barring any major shocks in the FX market, corporate fundamentals will be a key determinant of overall performance.

Dipo Olowookere is a journalist based in Nigeria that has passion for reporting business news stories. At his leisure time, he watches football and supports 3SC of Ibadan. Mr Olowookere can be reached via dipo.olowookere@businesspost.ng

Economy

Oyetola Orders Dibursement of Cabotage Vessel Financing Fund

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Cabotage Vessel Financing Fund

By Adedapo Adesanya

The Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Mr Adegboyega Oyetola, has instructed the Nigerian Maritime Administration and Safety Agency (NIMASA) to initiate the long-awaited disbursement process for the Cabotage Vessel Financing Fund (CVFF).

This directive marks a significant shift from over two decades of administrative stagnation and ushers in a new era of strategic repositioning of Nigeria’s indigenous shipping.

The CVFF, established under the Coastal and Inland Shipping (Cabotage) Act of 2003, was designed to empower Nigerian shipping companies through access to structured financing for vessel acquisition. However, successive administrations failed to operationalize the fund—until now.

According to the Minister, the disbursement of the CVFF will represent not just the release of funds, but a profound commitment to empowering Nigerian maritime operators, bolstering national competitiveness, and fostering sustainable economic development.

“This is not just about disbursing funds. It’s about rewriting a chapter in our maritime history,” said Mr Oyetola. “For over 20 years, the CVFF remained a dormant promise. Today, we are bringing it to life—deliberately, transparently, and strategically,” he stated.

NIMASA, in alignment with the Minister’s directive, has already issued a Marine Notice inviting eligible Nigerian shipping companies to apply.

Qualified applicants can access up to $25 million each at competitive interest rates to acquire vessels that meet international safety and performance standards.

The fund will be administered in partnership with carefully selected and approved Primary Lending Institutions (PLIs), ensuring professional and efficient disbursement.

“We are not merely funding vessels; we are investing in a future where Nigerian shipping companies can stand shoulder-to-shoulder with their international counterparts,” Mr Oyetola said.

“This is a turning point—one that affirms our commitment to local content, economic resilience, and maritime sovereignty,” he added.

The disbursement of the CVFF is anticipated to yield far-reaching benefits. It will enable the growth of a stronger, self-sufficient shipping fleet, generate employment opportunities, stimulate local shipbuilding and repair industries, and significantly reduce capital flight associated with foreign vessel chartering.

“We are doing what should have been done years ago—because our vision is clear.”

“A strong indigenous fleet is not just a matter of pride; it is a strategic national asset. Through this intervention, we will be securing jobs, strengthening our economy, and redefining our place in the global maritime economy,” said Mr Oyetola.

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Economy

Nigeria’s Inflation Rate Jumps to 24.23% in March 2025

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nigerian inflation

By Adedapo Adesanya

Nigeria’s inflation rate edged up to 24.23 per cent in March, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on  Tuesday. 

It was the first time since the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen since it was rebased in January by the stats office, which made the base year 2024 from the previous 2009.

The new rate indicates an upward movement of 1.05 per cent from the 23.18 per cent reported in February 2025, signalling a return to levels (24.48 per cent) recorded in the beginning of the year after the CPI rebasing.

This latest figures came at a time that the United States President, Mr Donald Trump, has unleashed a trade war that has triggered a sharp selloff in the price of oil, Nigeria’s main export and led to the weakening of the Naira, which will push up import costs, though this should reflect in the next CPI numbers next month.

Although the US administration announced a 90 per cent day pause on the 14 per cent reciprocal tariffs last week, its felt impact remains, as it continues to fight China.

The Nigerian government have announced plans to boost its non-oil imports to tackle the blowbacks from the trade war, which will heavily impact the global economy.

The rise in inflation will also present a challenge to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) regarding interest rates, which it paused at its last meeting.

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Economy

Fitch Sees Nigeria’s External Debt at $5.2bn, Maintains Stable Outlook

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Fitch Ratings

By Adedapo Adesanya

Fitch Ratings has projected Nigeria’s external debt service to reach $5.2 billion this year from $4.7 billion in 2024, though it maintained a stable outlook for the country in its latest rating.

The agency also cited a minor delay in the payment of a Eurobond coupon due on March 28, 2025, as a reflection of persistent challenges in public finance management.

The rating firm had upgraded Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating to ‘B’ from ‘B-’, with a stable outlook.

The $5.2 billion in debt service, according to Fitch, includes $4.5 billion in amortisation payments and a $1.1 billion Eurobond repayment due in November.

The development highlights the growing pressure on public finances despite ongoing economic reforms by the federal government.

Fitch noted, “The government external debt service is moderate but expected to rise to $5.2 billion in 2025 (with $4.5bn of amortisations, including a $1.1 billion Eurobond repayment due in November 2025), from $4.7 billion in 2024, and fall to $3.5 billion in 2026.”

It warned that although Nigeria’s external debt service remains within manageable levels, high-interest costs, weak revenue performance, and limited fiscal space remain significant concerns, adding that general government debt was expected to remain at about 51 per cent of GDP in 2025 and 2026.

However, it expressed concerns over the government’s revenue position, noting that interest payments will consume a substantial portion of income.

“We expect general government revenue-to-GDP to rise but to remain structurally low (averaging 13.3 per cent in 2025–2026), largely accounting for a high general government interest/revenue ratio, above 30 per cent, with federal government interest/revenue ratio of nearly 50 per cent,” it stated.

The company observed that Nigeria’s gross reserves rose to $41 billion at the end of 2024, before declining to $38 billion due to debt service payments.

Despite this, Fitch expects the country’s reserves to average five months of current external payments over the medium term, above the median for similarly rated economies, adding that recent policy reforms had contributed to increased foreign exchange inflows and better monetary stability, with inflation projected to average 22 per cent in 2025.

“Net official FX inflows through the CBN and autonomous sources rose by about 89 per cent in Q4 2024. We expect continued formalisation of FX activity to support the exchange rate, although we anticipate modest depreciation in the short term,” a part of the report stated.

It commended the government’s commitment to economic reforms, including the removal of fuel subsidies, liberalisation of the exchange rate, and tightening of monetary policy, noting that these steps had improved policy credibility and strengthened Nigeria’s ability to absorb shocks.

However, the agency warned that risks to Nigeria’s external and fiscal position remained, particularly if oil prices fall or policy implementation slows down.

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